<p>美国运通（American Express，简称 Amex）是一家信用卡发行公司，于 7 月 19 日公布了其第二季度业绩。尽管营收略低于预期并显示出消费者支出放缓的迹象，但业绩仍然不错。美国运通在第二季度表现出色的信用质量，结合旨在扩大市场份额的营销策略，表明公司的财务状况正朝着正确的方向发展。虽然股价接近历史最高点，但相较于同行，仍然以较低的估值倍数交易，我对美国运通的长期看涨前景仍然坚定。</p>
<h2><strong>美国运通第二季度业绩回顾</strong></h2>
<p>总部位于纽约市的信用卡发行公司在其六月季度交出了一份褒贬不一的成绩单。公司的每股收益（EPS）显著超出预期，达到每股 4.15 美元，而预期为每股 3.26 美元，同比增长 43.6%。然而，营收略低，为 163.3 亿美元，几乎比华尔街预期低 2%，尽管同比增长了 8.5%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.47-1024x309.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="309" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.47-1024x309.jpeg"/></p>
<p>业绩公布后股价下跌了 2.7%，反映出褒贬不一的业绩。鉴于美国运通在信用卡市场的高端定位，市场对其期望特别高。</p>
<p>由于持续高利率导致低端消费者支出放缓的担忧现在已扩展到高端消费者，而高端消费者是美国运通的核心客户群。美国消费者支出从上季度的 8.5% 放缓至 6.5%，旅行和娱乐支出有所减少。商品和服务支出增速也有所放缓。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.50-1024x563.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="563" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.50-1024x563.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：美国运通第二季度投资者展示</p>
<p>最终，交易量和付费持卡人数应是美国运通收入的主要驱动因素。观察美国运通第二季度的总网络交易量，报告为 4,410 亿美元，同比增长 3%。</p>
<p>虽然略低于约 4480 亿美元的共识预期，但仍较第一季度的 4,190 亿美元和去年同期的 4,270 亿美元有所增长。尽管如此，净卡费报告为 20.6 亿美元，同比增长 15%。</p>
<p>尽管如此，我认为业绩还算不错，因为核心业务表现依然强劲。据管理层称，坚实的势头使得营销投资较去年增加 15%，而不依赖于任何交易收益（如 Accertify 的出售）。换句话说，这反映出美国运通相对于竞争对手更为积极，旨在夺取更大市场份额。</p>
<p>近年来，美国运通新增了 2300 万新持卡人，包括许多来自 Z 世代和千禧一代。此前，公司难以吸引年轻客户，但情况正在改变。在第二季度，来自千禧一代和 Z 世代的增长占美国运通总账单的 33%，约占公司全球新客户的 60%。</p>
<h2><strong>信用质量更显重要</strong></h2>
<p>在信用质量方面，美国运通拥有行业内最高的标准之一。</p>
<p>美国运通约 23% 的营收与信用质量相关。这意味着其总收入中较小部分取决于客户的信用管理情况。公司更多依赖其他类型的收入，比如折扣收入，如下图所示。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.16-1024x529.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="529" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.16-1024x529.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：美国运通第二季度投资者展示</p>
<p>第二季度，信用质量保持强劲。信用损失准备金总额为 12.7 亿美元，略高于实际核销的 11.7 亿美元。这表明美国运通预留的资金超过当前需要覆盖坏账。</p>
<p>净核销率为 2.1%，与第一季度持平，略优于疫情前的 2.2%，表明有效的信用风险管理。此外，第二季度逾期 30 天以上的账户比率为 1.2%，低于疫情前的 1.5%。这意味着较少客户拖欠付款，这是财务健康和信用价值的积极迹象。</p>
<p>总体而言，美国运通的信用质量表明高端美国消费者似乎处于良好的财务状况。然而，投资者正在密切关注通货膨胀是否会在未来影响支出。随着许多新持卡人，包括 Z 世代和千禧一代，这对公司来说是一个新情景。目前看来仍然受控，但这是需要密切关注的事项。</p>
<h2><strong>关于美国运通股票</strong></h2>
<p>尽管美国运通的六月季度表现并不出色，尤其是对高端消费者支出的担忧，但财务业绩仍表明公司正朝着正确的方向发展。美国运通将其 2024 年每股收益指引提高至 13.30-13.80 美元，高于之前的 12.65-13.15 美元范围。如果达到较高端，将代表约 17.4% 的年增长，高于 Visa（V）和万事达卡（MA）等同行，2024 年的共识每股收益增长分别为 13.1% 和 16.4%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.22-1024x509.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="509" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.22-1024x509.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：美国运通第二季度投资者展示</p>
<p>然而，市场似乎没有给予美国运通公平的估值倍数。美国运通股票的前瞻市盈率为 18.4 倍，而 Visa 为 25.6 倍，万事达卡为 30.3 倍。美国运通的前瞻市盈率比过去五年的历史平均值低 3%，股价非常接近历史最高点，表明估值较为适中。</p>
<p>我相信美国运通股票应该会继续上涨，因为利率上升的情况将会持续更长时间，这对于贷款人来说是个好消息。在当前情况下，美国运通的交易量和付费持卡人数量不断提高，对持卡人公司来说，情况应该会继续良好。</p>
<h2><strong>根据分析师的观点，AXP 值得买入吗？</strong></h2>
<p>华尔街对美国运通的共识主要是看涨的，评级为中等买入。在覆盖该公司的 18 位分析师中，有 7 位看涨，9 位中立，2 位看跌。平均的 AXP 股价目标为 247.81 美元，显示最新股价相比有轻微的 3.2% 上涨潜力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/image-934.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="964" height="732" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/image-934.png"/></p>
<p><strong>查看更多 AXP 分析师评级</strong></p>
<h2><strong>要点</strong></h2>
<p>美国运通的第二季度业绩表现稳健，尽管不完美，存在对高端消费支出的轻微担忧，以及对营收预期的轻微错过。公司强劲而稳定的信用质量表明，即使营收增长适中，底线仍将继续强劲增长。它有可能表现优于同行，而同行股票交易价格显著溢价。</p>
<p>展望长期，消费支出不太可能多年受到压力，美国运通也不太可能失去对核心客户的吸引力。如果情况仍然如此，AXP 可能会继续上涨并创下新的历史高点。</p>
<p>披露</p>

美国运通

<p>美国运通报告称，第二季度业绩表现参差不齐，略有营收不及预期，但信用质量强劲。该公司旨在通过吸引新持卡人，包括千禧一代和 Z 世代，来扩大市场份额。尽管存在对高端消费支出和通货膨胀的担忧，美国运通仍然在正确的轨道上，并提高了其 2024 年的每股收益指引。总体而言，该公司的长期前景仍然强劲</p>

<p>Credit card lender American Express (AXP), or simply Amex, reported its Q2 results on July 19. Despite a slight miss on revenue expectations and signs of slowing consumer spending, the results were decent. Amex’s strong credit quality in Q2, combined with marketing strategies aimed at expanding market share, indicates that the company’s financials are on the right track. With a solid long-term business and a share price that, while near its all-time highs, still trades at a lower valuation multiple compared to its peers, my long-term bullish outlook for AXP remains strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国运通（American Express，简称 Amex）是一家信用卡发行公司，于 7 月 19 日公布了其第二季度业绩。尽管营收略低于预期并显示出消费者支出放缓的迹象，但业绩仍然不错。美国运通在第二季度表现出色的信用质量，结合旨在扩大市场份额的营销策略，表明公司的财务状况正朝着正确的方向发展。虽然股价接近历史最高点，但相较于同行，仍然以较低的估值倍数交易，我对美国运通的长期看涨前景仍然坚定。</p>
</div><h2><strong>American Express’ Q2 Earnings Review</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>美国运通第二季度业绩回顾</strong></h2>
</div><p>The New York City-based credit card lender delivered mixed results for its June quarter. The company beat EPS estimates significantly, posting $4.15 per share compared to the expected $3.26, marking a year-over-year improvement of 43.6%. However, revenue fell slightly short, coming in at $16.33 billion, nearly 2% below Wall Street’s expectations, despite an 8.5% year-over-year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总部位于纽约市的信用卡发行公司在其六月季度交出了一份褒贬不一的成绩单。公司的每股收益（EPS）显著超出预期，达到每股 4.15 美元，而预期为每股 3.26 美元，同比增长 43.6%。然而，营收略低，为 163.3 亿美元，几乎比华尔街预期低 2%，尽管同比增长了 8.5%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.47-1024x309.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.47-1024x309.jpeg"/></p>
<p>The 2.7% drop in stock price post-earnings reflected the mixed results. Given American Express’s premium positioning in the credit card market, expectations are particularly high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>业绩公布后股价下跌了 2.7%，反映出褒贬不一的业绩。鉴于美国运通在信用卡市场的高端定位，市场对其期望特别高。</p>
</div><p>Concerns about a slowdown among lower-end consumers due to persistent high interest rates have now extended to high-end consumers, who make up American Express’s core base. U.S. consumer spending slowed to 6.5% from 8.5% last quarter, with moderated spending in travel &amp; entertainment. Growth in goods &amp; services spending has also decelerated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于持续高利率导致低端消费者支出放缓的担忧现在已扩展到高端消费者，而高端消费者是美国运通的核心客户群。美国消费者支出从上季度的 8.5% 放缓至 6.5%，旅行和娱乐支出有所减少。商品和服务支出增速也有所放缓。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.50-1024x563.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.50-1024x563.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: AXP’s Q2 Investor Presentation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：美国运通第二季度投资者展示</p>
</div><p>At the end of the day, the volume of transactions and the number of fee-paying cardholders should be the primary drivers of American Express’ revenues. Looking at American Express’ total network volume for Q2, it reported $441 billion, marking a 3% year-over-year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，交易量和付费持卡人数应是美国运通收入的主要驱动因素。观察美国运通第二季度的总网络交易量，报告为 4,410 亿美元，同比增长 3%。</p>
</div><p>This fell short of the consensus expectation of around $448 billion but still represents growth from $419 billion in Q1 and $427 billion in the same quarter last year. Despite this, net card fees were reported at $2.06 billion, reflecting a 15% annual increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然略低于约 4480 亿美元的共识预期，但仍较第一季度的 4,190 亿美元和去年同期的 4,270 亿美元有所增长。尽管如此，净卡费报告为 20.6 亿美元，同比增长 15%。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, I view the results as decent, given that the core business performance remains strong. According to management, the solid momentum allows for a 15% increase in marketing investments compared to last year, without relying on any transactional gains (such as the sale of Accertify). In other words, this reflects a more aggressive stance by American Express in relation to competitors, aiming to capture a larger market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，我认为业绩还算不错，因为核心业务表现依然强劲。据管理层称，坚实的势头使得营销投资较去年增加 15%，而不依赖于任何交易收益（如 Accertify 的出售）。换句话说，这反映出美国运通相对于竞争对手更为积极，旨在夺取更大市场份额。</p>
</div><p>In recent years, American Express has added 23 million new cardholders, including many from Gen Z and Millennials. Previously, the company struggled to attract younger customers, but that’s been changing. In Q2, growth from Millennials and Gen Z accounted for 33% of Amex’s total billings and represents roughly 60% of the company’s new customers worldwide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年来，美国运通新增了 2300 万新持卡人，包括许多来自 Z 世代和千禧一代。此前，公司难以吸引年轻客户，但情况正在改变。在第二季度，来自千禧一代和 Z 世代的增长占美国运通总账单的 33%，约占公司全球新客户的 60%。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Credit Quality Speaks Louder</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>信用质量更显重要</strong></h2>
</div><p>When it comes to credit quality, American Express has some of the highest standards in the industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在信用质量方面，美国运通拥有行业内最高的标准之一。</p>
</div><p>About 23% of American Express’s revenue is linked to credit quality. This means a smaller portion of its total revenue depends on how well customers manage their credit. The company relies more on other types of revenue, such as Discount revenue, as you can see below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国运通约 23% 的营收与信用质量相关。这意味着其总收入中较小部分取决于客户的信用管理情况。公司更多依赖其他类型的收入，比如折扣收入，如下图所示。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.16-1024x529.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.16-1024x529.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: AXP’s Q2 Investor Presentation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：美国运通第二季度投资者展示</p>
</div><p>In Q2, credit quality remained strong. The total provision for credit losses was $1.27 billion, slightly higher than the $1.17 billion in actual write-offs. This suggests American Express is setting aside more funds than it currently needs to cover bad debts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二季度，信用质量保持强劲。信用损失准备金总额为 12.7 亿美元，略高于实际核销的 11.7 亿美元。这表明美国运通预留的资金超过当前需要覆盖坏账。</p>
</div><p>The net write-off rate was 2.1%, stable compared to Q1 and slightly better than the pre-pandemic rate of 2.2%, indicating effective credit risk management. Additionally, the rate of accounts 30+ days past due was 1.2% in Q2, down from the pre-pandemic rate of 1.5%. This means fewer customers are falling behind on payments, which is a positive sign of financial health and creditworthiness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>净核销率为 2.1%，与第一季度持平，略优于疫情前的 2.2%，表明有效的信用风险管理。此外，第二季度逾期 30 天以上的账户比率为 1.2%，低于疫情前的 1.5%。这意味着较少客户拖欠付款，这是财务健康和信用价值的积极迹象。</p>
</div><p>Overall, American Express’s credit quality indicates that higher-end American consumers appear to be in decent financial shape. However, investors are watching closely to see if inflation will start impacting spending in the future. With many new card members, including Gen Z and Millennials, this is a new scenario for the company. It still appears to be under control, but it’s something to keep an eye on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，美国运通的信用质量表明高端美国消费者似乎处于良好的财务状况。然而，投资者正在密切关注通货膨胀是否会在未来影响支出。随着许多新持卡人，包括 Z 世代和千禧一代，这对公司来说是一个新情景。目前看来仍然受控，但这是需要密切关注的事项。</p>
</div><h2><strong>On AXP Stock</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>关于美国运通股票</strong></h2>
</div><p>While the June quarter for American Express wasn’t outstanding, especially with concerns about high-end consumer spending, the financial results still suggest the company is on the right track. Amex raised its 2024 EPS guidance to $13.30-$13.80, up from the previous range of $12.65-$13.15. If the higher end is achieved, it will represent an annual increase of around 17.4%, higher compared to peers like Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA), with consensus EPS growth for 2024 at 13.1% and 16.4%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美国运通的六月季度表现并不出色，尤其是对高端消费者支出的担忧，但财务业绩仍表明公司正朝着正确的方向发展。美国运通将其 2024 年每股收益指引提高至 13.30-13.80 美元，高于之前的 12.65-13.15 美元范围。如果达到较高端，将代表约 17.4% 的年增长，高于 Visa（V）和万事达卡（MA）等同行，2024 年的共识每股收益增长分别为 13.1% 和 16.4%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.22-1024x509.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.22-1024x509.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: AXP’s Q2 Investor Presentation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：美国运通第二季度投资者展示</p>
</div><p>However, the market doesn’t seem to be giving American Express a fair multiple for this growth. Amex stock trades at a forward P/E of 18.4x, while Visa’s is 25.6x and Mastercard’s is 30.3x. AXP’s forward P/E is 3% below its historical average over the past five years, and the stock is very close to its all-time high, suggesting a moderate valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，市场似乎没有给予美国运通公平的估值倍数。美国运通股票的前瞻市盈率为 18.4 倍，而 Visa 为 25.6 倍，万事达卡为 30.3 倍。美国运通的前瞻市盈率比过去五年的历史平均值低 3%，股价非常接近历史最高点，表明估值较为适中。</p>
</div><p>I believe that AXP shares should continue climbing since elevated interest rates are here to stay for longer, which is good news for lenders in general. While Amex’s volume figures and number of fee-paying cardholders keep improving in the current scenario, things should keep going fine for the cardholder company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信美国运通股票应该会继续上涨，因为利率上升的情况将会持续更长时间，这对于贷款人来说是个好消息。在当前情况下，美国运通的交易量和付费持卡人数量不断提高，对持卡人公司来说，情况应该会继续良好。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Is AXP A Buy, According to Analysts?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>根据分析师的观点，AXP 值得买入吗？</strong></h2>
</div><p>The Wall Street consensus on AXP is predominantly bullish, with a Moderate Buy rating. Of the 18 analysts covering the company, seven are bullish, nine are neutral, and two are bearish. The average AXP stock price target is $247.81, indicating a timid 3.2% upside potential from the most recent share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街对美国运通的共识主要是看涨的，评级为中等买入。在覆盖该公司的 18 位分析师中，有 7 位看涨，9 位中立，2 位看跌。平均的 AXP 股价目标为 247.81 美元，显示最新股价相比有轻微的 3.2% 上涨潜力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/image-934.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/image-934.png"/></p>
<p><strong>See more AXP analyst ratings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看更多 AXP 分析师评级</strong></p>
</div><h2><strong>Key Takeaway</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>要点</strong></h2>
</div><p>American Express’ second-quarter results were solid, though not flawless, given slight concerns about high-end consumer spending and a slight miss on top-line estimates. The company’s robust and stable credit quality indicates that, even with moderate top-line growth, the bottom line should continue to grow strongly. It could potentially outperform peers, which trade at a significant premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国运通的第二季度业绩表现稳健，尽管不完美，存在对高端消费支出的轻微担忧，以及对营收预期的轻微错过。公司强劲而稳定的信用质量表明，即使营收增长适中，底线仍将继续强劲增长。它有可能表现优于同行，而同行股票交易价格显著溢价。</p>
</div><p>Looking out to the long term, it’s unlikely that consumer spending will remain pressured for years or that American Express will lose its appeal to its core customers. If this remains the case, AXP could keep rising and hit new all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望长期，消费支出不太可能多年受到压力，美国运通也不太可能失去对核心客户的吸引力。如果情况仍然如此，AXP 可能会继续上涨并创下新的历史高点。</p>
</div><p>Disclosure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>披露</p>
</div>

美国运通股票（NYSE:AXP）：尽管存在短期担忧，长期表现依然强劲