<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/172227344_l_normal_none.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="8256" height="5504" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/172227344_l_normal_none.jpg"/></p>
<p>薯条可能看起来是一道简单的配菜，但其需求情况揭示了更广泛经济趋势的许多信息。</p>
<p>最近来自蓝威斯顿的数据显示，作为麦当劳主要供应冷冻土豆的公司，突显了快餐和更广泛经济格局中的重大变化。</p>
<p>该公司最新的收益报告突显了超出薯条订单减少之外的挑战。</p>
<h2>随着快餐流量下降超过 4%，薯条需求下降</h2>
<p>在麦当劳点薯条似乎很简单，但这在很大程度上依赖于总部位于爱达荷州的蓝威斯顿公司，该公司种植、加工和运送土豆给麦当劳。</p>
<p>蓝威斯顿的命运与顾客点多少薯条密切相关。最近，该公司报告称，在麦当劳等快餐连锁店的流量减少，汉堡专门餐厅的流量下降超过 4%。</p>
<p>尽管 “薯条附加率” 较高——即顾客将薯条加入订单的比例——但由于参观这些餐厅的顾客减少，总体薯条需求下降。</p>
<h2>衍生需求导致土豆订单下降</h2>
<p>这种情况体现了关于需求的基本经济原则。经济学家了解到，当收入、互补和替代产品、买家数量以及效用等决定因素发生变化时，需求曲线会发生变化。</p>
<p>在这里，麦当劳薯条销售的减少导致了对蓝威斯顿冷冻土豆需求的降低。</p>
<p>这是一个典型的衍生需求案例，其中对一个商品（冷冻土豆）的需求受到另一个商品（快餐）需求的驱动。</p>
<h2>蓝威斯顿的营收下降 5%，股价下跌超过 25%</h2>
<p>作为一家价值 80 亿美元的全球公司，蓝威斯顿在一份令人失望的收益报告后价值暴跌。</p>
<p>该公司的营收下降了 5%，其盈利大幅下滑，导致前景黯淡。</p>
<p>蓝威斯顿的首席执行官汤姆·沃纳将业绩不佳归因于几个因素，包括有针对性的价格投资、为保持质量标准而自愿撤回产品、意外市场份额损失、不利的产品组合以及美国和主要国际市场中餐厅流量低于预期。</p>
<h2>快餐价格上涨导致消费者行为转变</h2>
<p>然而，核心问题更简单：快餐餐厅的表现一直在下滑。</p>
<p>根据 Truist 的餐厅分析师杰克·巴特利特的说法，快餐连锁店最近的疲软主要是由于价格上涨适得其反。</p>
<p>快餐价格上涨缩小了价值优势，推动消费者要么升级到 Chipotle 等快速休闲选项，要么降级到杂货店，那里的价格上涨较小。</p>
<p>这显著影响了快餐店的流量。</p>
<h2>疫情引发的中断和通胀影响餐厅利润</h2>
<p>疫情导致餐饮行业出现重大中断，最初的封锁导致需求崩溃，随后消费者花费积累的储蓄。</p>
<p>供应链问题进一步加剧了问题，导致通胀和各个领域的价格上涨。包括麦当劳在内的餐厅提高了价格以保护利润率。</p>
<p>这在麦当劳的营运利润中明显，疫情后增加，但随着消费者消费模式的转变，面临挑战。</p>
<p>蓝威斯顿的疫情表现和未来展望</p>
<p>蓝威斯顿在疫情期间蓬勃发展，季度销售激增。这种增长吸引了投资者的兴趣，在 2022 年初至 2023 年中，该公司股价翻倍。然而，销售增长主要是由价格上涨而非量增长驱动的。</p>
<p>首席执行官承认了这一点，表示未来的销售增长需要以量为驱动，专注于销售更多土豆而非提高价格。</p>
<p>这种战略转变至关重要，因为竞争迫使降价。蓝威斯顿未来的营收和利润增长将取决于增加销售量、改善产品组合和实现成本节约。</p>
<p>在疫情期间依赖价格上涨的做法不再可持续，需要专注于销售更多产品以推动增长。</p>
<h2>通胀和供应链问题仍然存在</h2>
<p>蓝威斯顿的故事说明了疫情带来的经济中断仍在影响资产价格。通胀持续不均匀解决，其影响仍在持续。</p>
<p>公司最近的财务表现显示了在实时导航经济中的挑战。加工土豆是一个商品行业，使得蓝威斯顿等公司成为价格接受者。</p>
<p>在疫情期间获得的定价权始终是暂时的，当前市场调整反映了这一现实。</p>
<h2>2025 年预测：净销售额预计在 66 亿美元至 68 亿美元之间</h2>
<p>展望未来，蓝威斯顿预测其年销售额和利润低于分析师的预期，因其冷冻食品产品的价格上涨开始影响销量。</p>
<p>该公司一直在提高其产品的价格，包括即食经典和甜薯条，以抵消制造、运输和土豆等原材料成本上涨。</p>
<p>蓝威斯顿供应给麦当劳和 KFC 母公司百胜餐饮集团等快餐连锁店，也面临更多人选择在家烹饪餐点的压力。首席执行官汤姆·沃纳表示，</p>
<p>美国和我们许多主要国际市场的市场份额损失以及餐厅流量放缓超出我们的预期。我们还因自愿撤回产品而遭受损失。</p>
<p>公司预测 2025 年净销售额在 66 亿美元（60.9 亿欧元）至 68 亿美元（63 亿欧元）之间，其中间值低于 LSEG 估计的 67.9 亿美元（63 亿欧元）。</p>
<p>公司预计全年每股收益将在 4.35 美元至 4.85 美元之间，而分析师平均预期为 6.09 美元。该公司表示，2025 财年上半年的销量可能会下降至低至中个位数范围。</p>
<h2>季度表现：销量下降 8%，收入低于预期</h2>
<p>Lamb Weston 第四季度销量下降了 8%。截至 5 月 26 日的季度收入为 161 亿美元（15 亿欧元），低于分析师预期的 170 亿美元（16 亿欧元）。</p>
<p>公司调整后的每股收益为 78 美分，而预期为 1.26 美元。</p>
<p>对薯条需求的增长提供了一个独特视角，可以观察更广泛的经济趋势。</p>
<p>Lamb Weston 最近的财务困境凸显了疫情引发的干扰对快餐行业和更广泛经济的持续影响。</p>
<p>随着公司调整战略以专注于以销量驱动的增长和成本管理，它面临着艰难的道路。</p>
<p>经济格局继续演变，反映了后疫情世界的复杂性和不确定性。</p>
<p>Lamb Weston 在第二季度表现令人失望：薯条经济告诉我们什么？</p>

蓝威斯顿

<p>蓝威斯顿，麦当劳主要的冷冻土豆供应商，报告称由于快餐流量减少，薯条需求下降。这反映了更广泛的经济趋势，并突显了快餐连锁店所面临的挑战。蓝威斯顿的营收下降了 5%，股价下跌超过 25%。公司的业绩不佳归因于多种因素，包括有针对性的价格投资、市场份额损失以及餐厅流量低于预期。受疫情引发的干扰和通货膨胀也影响了餐厅的利润率。展望未来，蓝威斯顿预测由于其冷冻食品产品价格上涨，销售额和利润将下降</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/172227344_l_normal_none.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/172227344_l_normal_none.jpg"/></p>
<p>French fries may seem like a simple side dish, but their demand reveals much about broader economic trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>薯条可能看起来是一道简单的配菜，但其需求情况揭示了更广泛经济趋势的许多信息。</p>
</div><p>Recent data from Lamb Weston, the primary supplier of frozen potatoes to McDonald’s, highlights significant shifts in the fast food and broader economic landscapes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近来自蓝威斯顿的数据显示，作为麦当劳主要供应冷冻土豆的公司，突显了快餐和更广泛经济格局中的重大变化。</p>
</div><p>The company’s latest earnings report underscores challenges that go beyond just fewer orders of fries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司最新的收益报告突显了超出薯条订单减少之外的挑战。</p>
</div><h2>French fry demand down as fast food traffic drops over 4%</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>随着快餐流量下降超过 4%，薯条需求下降</h2>
</div><p>Ordering French fries at McDonald’s appears straightforward, but it relies heavily on Lamb Weston, an Idaho-based company that grows, processes, and ships potatoes to McDonald’s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在麦当劳点薯条似乎很简单，但这在很大程度上依赖于总部位于爱达荷州的蓝威斯顿公司，该公司种植、加工和运送土豆给麦当劳。</p>
</div><p>Lamb Weston’s fortunes are closely tied to how many fries customers order. Recently, the company reported diminished traffic at fast food chains like McDonald’s, which experienced a more than 4% drop in traffic at hamburger specialty restaurants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蓝威斯顿的命运与顾客点多少薯条密切相关。最近，该公司报告称，在麦当劳等快餐连锁店的流量减少，汉堡专门餐厅的流量下降超过 4%。</p>
</div><p>Despite a higher “fry attachment rate” — the percentage of customers adding fries to their orders — overall French fry demand has declined due to fewer customers visiting these restaurants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 “薯条附加率” 较高——即顾客将薯条加入订单的比例——但由于参观这些餐厅的顾客减少，总体薯条需求下降。</p>
</div><h2>Derived demand drives down potato orders</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>衍生需求导致土豆订单下降</h2>
</div><p>This situation exemplifies basic economic principles regarding demand. Economists understand that demand curves shift when determinants such as income, complementary and substitute products, the number of buyers, and utility change.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种情况体现了关于需求的基本经济原则。经济学家了解到，当收入、互补和替代产品、买家数量以及效用等决定因素发生变化时，需求曲线会发生变化。</p>
</div><p>Here, McDonald’s diminished “income” from French fry sales translates into lower demand for Lamb Weston’s frozen potatoes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里，麦当劳薯条销售的减少导致了对蓝威斯顿冷冻土豆需求的降低。</p>
</div><p>This is a classic case of derived demand, where the demand for one good (frozen potatoes) is driven by the demand for another (fast food).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个典型的衍生需求案例，其中对一个商品（冷冻土豆）的需求受到另一个商品（快餐）需求的驱动。</p>
</div><h2>Lamb Weston’s revenue falls 5%, shares drop over 25%</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蓝威斯顿的营收下降 5%，股价下跌超过 25%</h2>
</div><p>Lamb Weston, an $8 billion global company, saw its value plummet after a disappointing earnings report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一家价值 80 亿美元的全球公司，蓝威斯顿在一份令人失望的收益报告后价值暴跌。</p>
</div><p>The company’s revenue declined by 5%, and its earnings collapsed, leading to a bleak outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司的营收下降了 5%，其盈利大幅下滑，导致前景黯淡。</p>
</div><p>Lamb Weston’s CEO, Tom Werner, attributed the poor performance to several factors, including targeted price investments, a voluntary product withdrawal to maintain quality standards, unexpected market share losses, an unfavourable product mix, and softer-than-expected restaurant traffic in both the US and key international markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蓝威斯顿的首席执行官汤姆·沃纳将业绩不佳归因于几个因素，包括有针对性的价格投资、为保持质量标准而自愿撤回产品、意外市场份额损失、不利的产品组合以及美国和主要国际市场中餐厅流量低于预期。</p>
</div><h2>Fast food price increases lead to shifting consumer behaviour</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>快餐价格上涨导致消费者行为转变</h2>
</div><p>The core issue, however, is simpler: the performance of fast-food restaurants has been slipping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，核心问题更简单：快餐餐厅的表现一直在下滑。</p>
</div><p>According to Jake Bartlett, a restaurant analyst at Truist, recent weakness in fast food chains is primarily due to price increases backfiring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Truist 的餐厅分析师杰克·巴特利特的说法，快餐连锁店最近的疲软主要是由于价格上涨适得其反。</p>
</div><p>Fast food price hikes have narrowed the value advantage, pushing consumers to either trade up to fast-casual options like Chipotle or down to grocery stores where price increases have been smaller.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>快餐价格上涨缩小了价值优势，推动消费者要么升级到 Chipotle 等快速休闲选项，要么降级到杂货店，那里的价格上涨较小。</p>
</div><p>This has significantly impacted traffic at fast food establishments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这显著影响了快餐店的流量。</p>
</div><h2>Pandemic-induced disruptions and inflation impact restaurant margins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>疫情引发的中断和通胀影响餐厅利润</h2>
</div><p>The pandemic caused significant disruptions in the restaurant industry, with initial lockdowns leading to a collapse in demand, followed by a surge as consumers spent their accumulated savings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疫情导致餐饮行业出现重大中断，最初的封锁导致需求崩溃，随后消费者花费积累的储蓄。</p>
</div><p>Supply chain issues further compounded the problem, leading to inflation and price hikes across the board. Restaurants, including McDonald’s, raised prices to protect their margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供应链问题进一步加剧了问题，导致通胀和各个领域的价格上涨。包括麦当劳在内的餐厅提高了价格以保护利润率。</p>
</div><p>This is evident in McDonald’s operating margin, which increased post-pandemic but now faces challenges as consumer spending patterns shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这在麦当劳的营运利润中明显，疫情后增加，但随着消费者消费模式的转变，面临挑战。</p>
</div><p>Lamb Weston’s pandemic performance and future outlook</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蓝威斯顿的疫情表现和未来展望</p>
</div><p>Lamb Weston thrived during the pandemic, with quarterly sales surging. This growth attracted investor interest, and between early 2022 and mid-2023, the company’s shares doubled. However, the increase in sales was primarily driven by price hikes rather than volume growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蓝威斯顿在疫情期间蓬勃发展，季度销售激增。这种增长吸引了投资者的兴趣，在 2022 年初至 2023 年中，该公司股价翻倍。然而，销售增长主要是由价格上涨而非量增长驱动的。</p>
</div><p>The CEO acknowledged this, stating that future sales growth would need to be volume-driven, focusing on selling more potatoes rather than increasing prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官承认了这一点，表示未来的销售增长需要以量为驱动，专注于销售更多土豆而非提高价格。</p>
</div><p>This strategic shift is critical as competition forces price cuts. Future revenue and profit growth for Lamb Weston will depend on increasing sales volumes, improving product mix, and achieving cost savings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种战略转变至关重要，因为竞争迫使降价。蓝威斯顿未来的营收和利润增长将取决于增加销售量、改善产品组合和实现成本节约。</p>
</div><p>The reliance on price increases during the pandemic is no longer sustainable, necessitating a focus on selling more products to drive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在疫情期间依赖价格上涨的做法不再可持续，需要专注于销售更多产品以推动增长。</p>
</div><h2>Inflation and supply chain issues persist</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通胀和供应链问题仍然存在</h2>
</div><p>The Lamb Weston saga illustrates that the economic disruptions from the pandemic are still impacting asset prices. Inflation continues to resolve unevenly, with its effects still being felt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蓝威斯顿的故事说明了疫情带来的经济中断仍在影响资产价格。通胀持续不均匀解决，其影响仍在持续。</p>
</div><p>The company’s recent financial performance shows the challenges of navigating economic disruptions in real time. Processing potatoes is a commodity industry, making companies like Lamb Weston price takers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司最近的财务表现显示了在实时导航经济中的挑战。加工土豆是一个商品行业，使得蓝威斯顿等公司成为价格接受者。</p>
</div><p>The pricing power gained during the pandemic was always temporary, and the current market correction reflects this reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在疫情期间获得的定价权始终是暂时的，当前市场调整反映了这一现实。</p>
</div><h2>Forecast for 2025: Net sales expected between $6.6 billion and $6.8 billion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年预测：净销售额预计在 66 亿美元至 68 亿美元之间</h2>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Lamb Weston forecast its annual sales and profit below analysts’ expectations, as higher prices of its frozen food products begin to hurt volumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，蓝威斯顿预测其年销售额和利润低于分析师的预期，因其冷冻食品产品的价格上涨开始影响销量。</p>
</div><p>The company has been increasing prices of its products, including ready-to-cook classic and sweet potato fries, to offset rising costs of manufacturing, transportation, and inputs such as potatoes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司一直在提高其产品的价格，包括即食经典和甜薯条，以抵消制造、运输和土豆等原材料成本上涨。</p>
</div><p>Lamb Weston, which supplies to fast-food chains such as McDonald’s and KFC-owner Yum Brands, also faced pressure from more people opting to cook their meals at home amid persistent inflation. CEO Tom Werner stated,</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蓝威斯顿供应给麦当劳和 KFC 母公司百胜餐饮集团等快餐连锁店，也面临更多人选择在家烹饪餐点的压力。首席执行官汤姆·沃纳表示，</p>
</div><p>Market share losses and a slowdown in restaurant traffic in the US and many of our key international markets were greater than we expected. We also incurred losses related to a voluntary product withdrawal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国和我们许多主要国际市场的市场份额损失以及餐厅流量放缓超出我们的预期。我们还因自愿撤回产品而遭受损失。</p>
</div><p>The company forecast 2025 net sales in the range of $6.6 billion (€6.09 billion) to $6.8 billion (€6.3 billion), the mid-point of which was below LSEG estimates of $6.79 billion (€6.3 billion).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司预测 2025 年净销售额在 66 亿美元（60.9 亿欧元）至 68 亿美元（63 亿欧元）之间，其中间值低于 LSEG 估计的 67.9 亿美元（63 亿欧元）。</p>
</div><p>It also expects full-year earnings per share to be between $4.35 and $4.85, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $6.09. The company said its volumes in the first half of the fiscal 2025 were likely to decline in the low-to-mid single-digits range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司预计全年每股收益将在 4.35 美元至 4.85 美元之间，而分析师平均预期为 6.09 美元。该公司表示，2025 财年上半年的销量可能会下降至低至中个位数范围。</p>
</div><h2>Quarterly performance: 8% volume drop and revenue below expectations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>季度表现：销量下降 8%，收入低于预期</h2>
</div><p>Lamb Weston’s volumes fell 8% in the fourth quarter. Revenue of $1.61 billion (€1.5 billion) in the quarter ended May 26 was below analysts’ estimate of $1.70 billion (€1.6 billion).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lamb Weston 第四季度销量下降了 8%。截至 5 月 26 日的季度收入为 161 亿美元（15 亿欧元），低于分析师预期的 170 亿美元（16 亿欧元）。</p>
</div><p>The company’s adjusted earnings per share was at 78 cents compared with the $1.26 estimated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司调整后的每股收益为 78 美分，而预期为 1.26 美元。</p>
</div><p>The demand for French fries offers a unique lens through which to view broader economic trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对薯条需求的增长提供了一个独特视角，可以观察更广泛的经济趋势。</p>
</div><p>Lamb Weston’s recent financial struggles underscore the ongoing impact of pandemic-induced disruptions on the fast food industry and the broader economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lamb Weston 最近的财务困境凸显了疫情引发的干扰对快餐行业和更广泛经济的持续影响。</p>
</div><p>As the company adjusts its strategy to focus on volume-driven growth and cost management, it faces a challenging path ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着公司调整战略以专注于以销量驱动的增长和成本管理，它面临着艰难的道路。</p>
</div><p>The economic landscape continues to evolve, reflecting the complexities and uncertainties of a post-pandemic world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济格局继续演变，反映了后疫情世界的复杂性和不确定性。</p>
</div><p>The post Lamb Weston had a disappointing Q2: what the French fries economics is telling us? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lamb Weston 在第二季度表现令人失望：薯条经济告诉我们什么？</p>
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蓝威斯顿第二季度表现令人失望：薯条经济学告诉了我们什么信息？