<p>对于于 6 月 5 日发布的财报，市场对 2024 财年第一季度的 <strong>Lululemon</strong>(LULU 1.04%) 做出了积极的反应 -- 交易员将股价推高至 6 月 6 日的 337.76 美元的盘中高点。然而，自那时起，股价一路下跌 -- 于 7 月 25 日跌至低于 250 美元的四年低点。该股票今年迄今已下跌超过 50%，成为 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 中表现第二糟糕的组成部分，仅次于 <strong>Walgreens Boots Alliance</strong>。</p>
<p>以下是导致这只成长股下跌的原因，以及为何抛售可能是耐心投资者的买入机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQ5MzAvY29weS1vZi1mcnVzdHJhdGVkLXNhZC1iYWQtaW52ZXN0bWVudC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQ5MzAvY29weS1vZi1mcnVzdHJhdGVkLXNhZC1iYWQtaW52ZXN0bWVudC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源: Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Lululemon 的红火时期结束了</h2>
<p>Lululemon 在 2023 年 12 月创下历史新高，其原因显而易见。</p>
<p>在三年内，营收几乎翻了一番，运营利润率超过 20% -- 表明需求强劲，定价能力强。而且，Lululemon 今年迄今的业绩也不错。但是，股价现在正朝着销售和利润的相反方向走。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/84552377a948cf374976691e0f531839.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="504" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/84552377a948cf374976691e0f531839.png"/></p>
<p>LULU 数据由 YCharts 提供。</p>
<p>主要问题在于销售增长放缓。在最近公布的季度中，营收同比增长了 10%，但在恒定汇率基础上，可比销售仅增长了 7%。这与 2023 年第一季度增长 24% 或 2022 年第一季度销售增长 32% 的情况形成鲜明对比。</p>
<p>随着企业成熟，正常预期增长率会在百分比基础上放缓。毫无疑问，Lululemon 无疑是世界顶级的休闲运动品牌之一 -- 而不是一个新兴公司。但它特别容易受到增长放缓的影响。</p>
<h2>Lululemon 致力于增长，而非衰退</h2>
<p>与许多同行依赖批发合作伙伴不同，Lululemon 大部分销售额来自公司经营的门店和直销渠道。一个自然的比较是 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 和汽车行业的老牌参与者之间的对比。特斯拉不通过独立经销商网络销售其车辆 -- 它直接通过门店和在线向消费者销售，并通过自己的服务中心和充电网络支持运营。</p>
<p>这种商业模式使 Lululemon 对其运营拥有更多控制权。然而，这也增加了其固定成本，并使业务变得臃肿，这可能会在需求大幅下降时放大负面财务影响。</p>
<p>公司的销售、总务和行政（SG&amp;A）费用相当可观。在过去 12 个月中，每创造 1 美元销售额，Lululemon 在 SG&amp;A 费用上花费了 0.35 美元，而在销售成本上花费了 0.42 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/75dddf5b640dc57b6b05ea9aed92090a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="521" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/75dddf5b640dc57b6b05ea9aed92090a.png"/></p>
<p>LULU SG&amp;A 费用（TTM）数据由 YCharts 提供。</p>
<p>营销是品牌发展的重要组成部分。然而，过度的 SG&amp;A 支出可能会膨胀公司的成本结构，并使其过度依赖销售增长来抵消这些高成本。</p>
<h2>新生力量</h2>
<p>除了宏观经济挑战外，Lululemon 面临着激烈的竞争 -- 尤其是来自 Alo Yoga -- 后者直接抢占 Lululemon 的市场份额。Lululemon 在休闲运动服装领域发挥了先锋作用，尤其是在将瑜伽裤推广为日常服装选项方面。但七到十年前，该品牌知名度较低，公司在销售方面规模也小得多。Lululemon 现在处于市场上占据主导地位的阶段，但并没有更具时间考验的品牌所具有的根深蒂固的立足点。这使其更容易受到消费者偏好和时尚变化的影响。</p>
<p><strong>耐克</strong>(NKE 0.73%) 面临着与 Lululemon 相同的宏观经济和消费者行为挑战。耐克面临来自 <strong>On Holding</strong> 和 Hoka（由 <strong>Deckers Outdoor</strong> 拥有）的竞争不断加剧。但耐克是世界上最大和最知名的服装品牌。它与 Lululemon 完全不在一个层次。即便如此，其股价已跌至五年多来的最低水平 -- 这说明了当前行业面临的挑战是多么极端。</p>
<p>Lululemon 今天的市盈率仅为 20.4 倍，这在历史上是非常便宜的。但如果销售增长继续放缓，这一估值可能开始看起来相当昂贵。Lululemon 最大的悲观风险在于，如果其盈利实际上开始因其臃肿的成本结构和消费者偏好变化而收缩。公司也可能确定需要降低价格以抵御 Alo Yoga 和其他品牌。这些担忧与宏观经济背景的结合解释了为什么该股票在过去七个月中遭受重创。</p>
<h2>Lululemon 是谨慎的买入</h2>
<p>Lululemon 曾经是一只高飞的股票，现在主要因为大多数正当理由而被转移到折扣货架上。现在比以往任何时候都更重要的是，不要忽视公司作为品牌所面临的挑战，以及迎合注重成本的消费者的挑战。</p>
<p>然而，同样重要的是要认识到 Lululemon 已经取得了多大的进步。其国际销售和男装业务实现了强劲增长，表明它可以多样化业务，减少对北美市场女装销售的依赖。即使其销售在短期内保持疲软，该股票现在也具有低廉的估值。</p>
<p>Lululemon 已经跌至可以买入的程度。然而，投资者应密切关注品牌的健康状况和管理层对 SG&amp;A 费用的处理方式。如果 Lululemon 投入大量资金进行营销活动，结果却失败并侵蚀利润率，那可能是品牌实力减弱的信号，股票应该被赋予较低的盈利倍数。</p>

露露乐蒙

<p>路威运动（Lululemon）的股价今年以来下跌超过 50%，成为标普 500 指数表现第二糟糕的成分股。主要问题在于销售增长放缓，公司正面临着来自 Alo Yoga 等品牌的激烈竞争。路威运动高昂的费用和消费者偏好的变化带来风险。然而，股价低估值使其成为谨慎的买入选择</p>

<p>The reaction to the fiscal 2024 first-quarter report <strong>Lululemon</strong>(LULU 1.04%) released on June 5 was positive -- traders sent the stock up to an intraday high of $337.76 on June 6. Since then, though, the share price has been crushed -- falling to a four-year low below $250 on July 25. The stock is now down by just over 50% year to date, making it the second-worst performing component of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, behind only <strong>Walgreens Boots Alliance</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于于 6 月 5 日发布的财报，市场对 2024 财年第一季度的 <strong>Lululemon</strong>(LULU 1.04%) 做出了积极的反应 -- 交易员将股价推高至 6 月 6 日的 337.76 美元的盘中高点。然而，自那时起，股价一路下跌 -- 于 7 月 25 日跌至低于 250 美元的四年低点。该股票今年迄今已下跌超过 50%，成为 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 中表现第二糟糕的组成部分，仅次于 <strong>Walgreens Boots Alliance</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Here's what's pushing this growth stock down, and why the sell-off could be a buying opportunity for patient investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是导致这只成长股下跌的原因，以及为何抛售可能是耐心投资者的买入机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQ5MzAvY29weS1vZi1mcnVzdHJhdGVkLXNhZC1iYWQtaW52ZXN0bWVudC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F784930%2Fcopy-of-frustrated-sad-bad-investment-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源: Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Lululemon's red-hot run is over</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lululemon 的红火时期结束了</h2>
</div><p>Lululemon hit an all-time high in December 2023, and it's easy to see why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lululemon 在 2023 年 12 月创下历史新高，其原因显而易见。</p>
</div><p>Revenue has nearly doubled in three years and operating margins climbed above 20% -- signaling strong demand and pricing power. And Lululemon's results haven't been bad so far this year either. But the price of the stock is now going in the opposite direction of sales and margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在三年内，营收几乎翻了一番，运营利润率超过 20% -- 表明需求强劲，定价能力强。而且，Lululemon 今年迄今的业绩也不错。但是，股价现在正朝着销售和利润的相反方向走。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/84552377a948cf374976691e0f531839.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/84552377a948cf374976691e0f531839.png"/></p>
<p>LULU data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LULU 数据由 YCharts 提供。</p>
</div><p>The main issue is that sales growth is slowing. In the most recently reported quarter, revenue increased by 10% year over year, but comparable sales increased by just 7% on a constant-currency basis. That's a noticeable dip from Q1 2023, when revenue increased 24%, or Q1 2022 when sales were up 32%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要问题在于销售增长放缓。在最近公布的季度中，营收同比增长了 10%，但在恒定汇率基础上，可比销售仅增长了 7%。这与 2023 年第一季度增长 24% 或 2022 年第一季度销售增长 32% 的情况形成鲜明对比。</p>
</div><p>It's normal to expect growth rates to slow on a percentage basis as a business matures. Lululemon is undoubtedly one of the top athleisure brands in the world -- not an up-and-coming company. But it is particularly vulnerable to a slowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着企业成熟，正常预期增长率会在百分比基础上放缓。毫无疑问，Lululemon 无疑是世界顶级的休闲运动品牌之一 -- 而不是一个新兴公司。但它特别容易受到增长放缓的影响。</p>
</div><h2>Lululemon is built for growth, not a downturn</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lululemon 致力于增长，而非衰退</h2>
</div><p>Instead of relying on wholesale partners like many of its peers, Lululemon gets most of its sales through company-operated stores and its direct-to-consumer channel. A natural comparison would be the contrast between <strong>Tesla</strong> and the auto industry's established players. Tesla doesn't sell its vehicles through networks of independent dealers -- it sells them directly to consumers through its stores and online, and supports the operation with its own service centers and charging network.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与许多同行依赖批发合作伙伴不同，Lululemon 大部分销售额来自公司经营的门店和直销渠道。一个自然的比较是 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 和汽车行业的老牌参与者之间的对比。特斯拉不通过独立经销商网络销售其车辆 -- 它直接通过门店和在线向消费者销售，并通过自己的服务中心和充电网络支持运营。</p>
</div><p>That sort of business model gives Lululemon more control over its operations. However, it also adds to its fixed costs and makes the business bulkier, which could amplify the negative financial impacts in the event of a sizable decline in demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种商业模式使 Lululemon 对其运营拥有更多控制权。然而，这也增加了其固定成本，并使业务变得臃肿，这可能会在需求大幅下降时放大负面财务影响。</p>
</div><p>The company's sales, general, and administrative (SG&amp;A) expenses are significant. For every dollar in sales generated during the last 12 months, Lululemon spent $0.35 on SG&amp;A expenses compared to $0.42 on the dollar for cost of goods sold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的销售、总务和行政（SG&amp;A）费用相当可观。在过去 12 个月中，每创造 1 美元销售额，Lululemon 在 SG&amp;A 费用上花费了 0.35 美元，而在销售成本上花费了 0.42 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/75dddf5b640dc57b6b05ea9aed92090a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/75dddf5b640dc57b6b05ea9aed92090a.png"/></p>
<p>LULU SG&amp;A Expense (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LULU SG&amp;A 费用（TTM）数据由 YCharts 提供。</p>
</div><p>Marketing is an important component of brand development. However, excessive SG&amp;A spending can inflate a company's cost structure and make it overly reliant on sales growth to offset those high costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>营销是品牌发展的重要组成部分。然而，过度的 SG&amp;A 支出可能会膨胀公司的成本结构，并使其过度依赖销售增长来抵消这些高成本。</p>
</div><h2>New kids on the block</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新生力量</h2>
</div><p>In addition to macroeconomic challenges, Lululemon is facing tough competition -- particularly from Alo Yoga -- which is directly going after Lululemon's market share. Lululemon helped pioneer athleisure, especially in popularizing yoga pants as an everyday apparel option. But seven to 10 years ago, the brand was lesser known, and the company was much smaller from a sales standpoint. Lululemon is now at a stage where it has a commanding presence in the market, but it doesn't have the entrenched foothold of a more time-tested brand. This leaves it more exposed to changes in consumer preferences and fads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了宏观经济挑战外，Lululemon 面临着激烈的竞争 -- 尤其是来自 Alo Yoga -- 后者直接抢占 Lululemon 的市场份额。Lululemon 在休闲运动服装领域发挥了先锋作用，尤其是在将瑜伽裤推广为日常服装选项方面。但七到十年前，该品牌知名度较低，公司在销售方面规模也小得多。Lululemon 现在处于市场上占据主导地位的阶段，但并没有更具时间考验的品牌所具有的根深蒂固的立足点。这使其更容易受到消费者偏好和时尚变化的影响。</p>
</div><p><strong>Nike</strong>(NKE 0.73%) has been dealing with the same macroeconomic and consumer-behavior challenges as Lululemon. Nike faces rising competition from <strong>On Holding</strong> and Hoka (which is owned by <strong>Deckers Outdoor</strong>). But Nike is the largest and most recognizable apparel brand in the world. It is simply in a different league as Lululemon. And even so, its stock price has collapsed to its lowest level in more than five years -- illustrating just how extreme the challenges the industry faces right now are.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>耐克</strong>(NKE 0.73%) 面临着与 Lululemon 相同的宏观经济和消费者行为挑战。耐克面临来自 <strong>On Holding</strong> 和 Hoka（由 <strong>Deckers Outdoor</strong> 拥有）的竞争不断加剧。但耐克是世界上最大和最知名的服装品牌。它与 Lululemon 完全不在一个层次。即便如此，其股价已跌至五年多来的最低水平 -- 这说明了当前行业面临的挑战是多么极端。</p>
</div><p>Lululemon trades today at a mere 20.4 price-to-earnings ratio, which is dirt cheap for the stock historically. But that valuation could begin to look quite expensive if sales growth continues to slow. The biggest bear-case risk for Lululemon would be if its earnings actually began to contract due to the combination of its bloated cost profile and changing consumer preferences. The company could also determine it needs to dial back prices to ward off Alo Yoga and other brands. The combination of those concerns and the macroeconomic backdrop explains why the stock has gotten obliterated over the last seven months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lululemon 今天的市盈率仅为 20.4 倍，这在历史上是非常便宜的。但如果销售增长继续放缓，这一估值可能开始看起来相当昂贵。Lululemon 最大的悲观风险在于，如果其盈利实际上开始因其臃肿的成本结构和消费者偏好变化而收缩。公司也可能确定需要降低价格以抵御 Alo Yoga 和其他品牌。这些担忧与宏观经济背景的结合解释了为什么该股票在过去七个月中遭受重创。</p>
</div><h2>Lululemon is a cautious buy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lululemon 是谨慎的买入</h2>
</div><p>Lululemon was once a high-flying stock, and it has been moved to the discount rack for mostly good reasons. Now more than ever, it's important not to overlook the challenges the company faces both as a brand and in catering to cost-conscious consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lululemon 曾经是一只高飞的股票，现在主要因为大多数正当理由而被转移到折扣货架上。现在比以往任何时候都更重要的是，不要忽视公司作为品牌所面临的挑战，以及迎合注重成本的消费者的挑战。</p>
</div><p>However, it's equally important to recognize how far Lululemon has come. It is achieving strong growth in international sales and men's clothing, suggesting it can diversify its business and become less reliant on selling women's clothing in the North American market. The stock is also inexpensively valued now, even if its sales remain sluggish over the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，同样重要的是要认识到 Lululemon 已经取得了多大的进步。其国际销售和男装业务实现了强劲增长，表明它可以多样化业务，减少对北美市场女装销售的依赖。即使其销售在短期内保持疲软，该股票现在也具有低廉的估值。</p>
</div><p>Lululemon has sold off enough to make it a buy. However, investors should pay close attention to the brand's health and management's approach to SG&amp;A expenses. If Lululemon throws money at marketing campaigns that end up failing and eroding margins, then that may be a signal that the brand's power is weakening and the stock deserves a low earnings multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lululemon 已经跌至可以买入的程度。然而，投资者应密切关注品牌的健康状况和管理层对 SG&amp;A 费用的处理方式。如果 Lululemon 投入大量资金进行营销活动，结果却失败并侵蚀利润率，那可能是品牌实力减弱的信号，股票应该被赋予较低的盈利倍数。</p>
</div>

Lululemon 股票年初至今下跌超过 50%。这次抛售是否已经过度了？