<p>随着 <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST 0.64%) 股价自去年初以来上涨超过 60%，投资者可能有些犹豫是否要进入新的头寸。更让他们犹豫的是，该股票的估值很高，约为未来 12 个月预期收益的 50 倍。他们担心的是，可能已经没有上涨空间了。</p>
<p>事实上，投资者有理由对这些疑虑进行思考。</p>
<p>只是不要太习惯于成为悲观群体的一员。Costco 股票有一个有趣的习惯，表现比看起来应该更为乐观。</p>
<h2>它是否太过美好？</h2>
<p>你可能已经了解这家公司：Costco 是一家基于会员制的折扣零售商。它拥有超过 7000 万付费会员和超过 1.3 亿持卡人，他们每年支付 65 美元或 130 美元的会费，以在其 878 家门店之一购物。其中大多数位于美国，尽管 Costco 在美国以外也有少量实体店。在其截至 2023 年 9 月 3 日的财年中，其业务额超过 2420 亿美元，将其中 63 亿美元的收入转化为净利润。</p>
<p>更重要的是，它擅长自己的业务。事实上，它可能是业内最好的公司，尽管直接与 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 的仓储零售部门 Sam's Club 等大公司竞争。Costco 自 1976 年在一个飞机库开设第一家店以来一直在做这个行当，当时它还被称为 Price Club。</p>
<p>这就是潜在买家面临的困境。即使它不是一个高增长的公司，Costco 确实是一个可靠的增长者。在过去十多年里，其营收每个季度都没有出现同比下降，而其利润增长也几乎同样稳定。投资者希望参与这种韧性，甚至愿意为此支付溢价。</p>
<p>他们只是在股价远远超过基本收益时不擅于控制。</p>
<h2>你能理解 Costco 股票疯狂的价格波动吗？</h2>
<p>这正是自去年初以来发生的事情，尽管随后的急剧上涨始于已经存在劣势。也就是说，由于 COVID-19 大流行，Costco 股票也异常火爆。以此为参照，除了自 2023 年初以来上涨 65% 外，Costco 的股价自 2019 年底以来上涨了令人难以置信的 170%，自 2016 年底以来上涨了 400%。销售额和利润在此期间有所增长，但程度远不及股价。</p>
<p>结果呢？Costco 股票的市盈率从那时的约 25 上升到现在的 50 多。即使按照热门科技股的标准，这也是相当高的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/42f40eaa6228c84c5860c0818b96ff4d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="473" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/42f40eaa6228c84c5860c0818b96ff4d.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 COST 数据。</p>
<p>大多数投资者明白，该股目前被高估，或者至少接近分析师的一致目标，即每股不到 890 美元。然而，对下一轮牛市势头的错失恐惧也是非常强烈的。这也是股价从 7 月初高点回落的部分原因。</p>
<p>回到最初的问题：现在买入 Costco 股票是否为时已晚？答案是...有点。</p>
<p>但 “有点” 是多少呢？这就是问题所在。尽管许多投资者希望得到一个明确的、定量的 Costco 股票入场价格，但这是不可能的。这是一只股票，其涨落取决于内部和外部的定性因素；有一种 “感觉”。目前可以肯定的是：股价现在大约与过去 25 年的高点一样高。只需看下面的图表，显示其市盈率随时间的变化。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/504213de8f4b1d26a29da6e9bd5b796f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/504213de8f4b1d26a29da6e9bd5b796f.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 COST 市盈率数据</p>
<p>另一方面，不要对入场价格太挑剔。如果你等待这只股票的市盈率回落到几年前的中 20 年代，就忘了吧。如果投资者开始对其失去兴趣，只需寻找卖出已经触底并且股票开始吸引买家的迹象。这是一个判断，当你看到时就会知道。大概。</p>
<p>如果你没有恰好买入最低点，也没关系。你仍然在进入一个出色的长期持有。随着时间的推移，一切都会好起来。</p>
<h2>长期来看，公司比股票更重要</h2>
<p>这当然是一个令人沮丧的概念，特别是对于喜欢数字整洁明了的新手投资者。_一些_股票是这样运作的。然而，大多数股票并非如此。不要为此烦恼。事实上，要适应它。</p>
<p>正如愚人节的核心理念之一所解释的那样，你是在投资公司 -- 而不是股票。寻找优质公司，它们的股票会随着时间解决问题。Costco 股票在其历史上肯定做到了这一点，即使估值极高。</p>
<p>这也正是为什么现在买入它并不算太晚，前提是你真正看好未来五年或更长时间。这也是为什么你的确切入场价格并不重要。</p>
<p>然而，如果你的时间框架只有五周...那就是另一回事了。Costco 股票五周后的价格很可能比现在低，但这更多取决于不可预测的市场环境，而不是公司本身。试图在短期内进行交易时机，当你实际上只关注短期时，是一场危险的游戏。</p>

开市客

<p>Costco 股票已经实现了显著增长，目前价值约为未来 12 个月预期收益的 50 倍。投资者对股票高估值感到担忧，但也不想错过潜在收益。虽然股票可能被高估，但它仍然是一家可靠且具有韧性的公司。购买决策应基于定性因素和判断，而不是等待特定的入场价格。总体而言，Costco 被认为是一个出色的长期持有投资</p>

<p>With shares of <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST 0.64%) up more than 60% since early last year, investors may be a bit hesitant to dive into a new position. Giving them even more pause is the fact that the stock's valued richly, at around 50 times the next 12 months' expected earnings. They're understandably concerned that there's just no upside left to tap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST 0.64%) 股价自去年初以来上涨超过 60%，投资者可能有些犹豫是否要进入新的头寸。更让他们犹豫的是，该股票的估值很高，约为未来 12 个月预期收益的 50 倍。他们担心的是，可能已经没有上涨空间了。</p>
</div><p>The thing is, investors are right to entertain these doubts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，投资者有理由对这些疑虑进行思考。</p>
</div><p>Just don't get too comfortable being part of the pessimistic crowd. Costco stock has a funny habit of performing far more bullishly than it seems it should.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只是不要太习惯于成为悲观群体的一员。Costco 股票有一个有趣的习惯，表现比看起来应该更为乐观。</p>
</div><h2>Is it too good for its own good?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>它是否太过美好？</h2>
</div><p>You probably know the company: Costco is a club-based discount retailer. It boasts over 70 million paid memberships and more than 130 million total cardholders, who are paying either $65 or $130 per year for the right to shop at one of its 878 stores. Most of them are located in the United States, although Costco has a small brick-and-mortar presence outside of the U.S. as well. In its fiscal 2023, which ended Sept. 3, it did over $242 billion worth of business, turning $6.3 billion of that revenue into net income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能已经了解这家公司：Costco 是一家基于会员制的折扣零售商。它拥有超过 7000 万付费会员和超过 1.3 亿持卡人，他们每年支付 65 美元或 130 美元的会费，以在其 878 家门店之一购物。其中大多数位于美国，尽管 Costco 在美国以外也有少量实体店。在其截至 2023 年 9 月 3 日的财年中，其业务额超过 2420 亿美元，将其中 63 亿美元的收入转化为净利润。</p>
</div><p>More important, it's good at what it does. It may be the best in the business, in fact, even though it competes directly with power players like <strong>Walmart</strong>'s warehouse-retailing unit Sam's Club. Costco's been doing this since opening its first store in an airplane hangar all the way back in 1976, when it was still called Price Club.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，它擅长自己的业务。事实上，它可能是业内最好的公司，尽管直接与 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 的仓储零售部门 Sam's Club 等大公司竞争。Costco 自 1976 年在一个飞机库开设第一家店以来一直在做这个行当，当时它还被称为 Price Club。</p>
</div><p>And there's the conundrum for would-be buyers. Even if it's not a high-growth company, Costco <em>is</em> a reliable grower. Its top line hasn't failed to grow on a year-over-year basis in any quarter in over a decade, while its profit growth has been almost as consistent. Investors want to plug into this resilience, and are even willing to pay a premium for it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是潜在买家面临的困境。即使它不是一个高增长的公司，Costco 确实是一个可靠的增长者。在过去十多年里，其营收每个季度都没有出现同比下降，而其利润增长也几乎同样稳定。投资者希望参与这种韧性，甚至愿意为此支付溢价。</p>
</div><p>They're just not great at tapping the brakes when the stock gets too far ahead of its underlying earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们只是在股价远远超过基本收益时不擅于控制。</p>
</div><h2>Can you make sense of Costco stock's crazy price action?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你能理解 Costco 股票疯狂的价格波动吗？</h2>
</div><p>That's exactly what's happened here since early last year, although the steep run-up that followed started with a disadvantage already in place. That is, Costco shares were also red-hot because of the COVID-19 pandemic. For perspective, in addition to its 65% gain since the beginning of 2023, Costco's stock is up an incredible 170% since the end of 2019, and 400% since the end of 2016. Sales and earnings are up for this time frame, but not nearly to the same degree.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这正是自去年初以来发生的事情，尽管随后的急剧上涨始于已经存在劣势。也就是说，由于 COVID-19 大流行，Costco 股票也异常火爆。以此为参照，除了自 2023 年初以来上涨 65% 外，Costco 的股价自 2019 年底以来上涨了令人难以置信的 170%，自 2016 年底以来上涨了 400%。销售额和利润在此期间有所增长，但程度远不及股价。</p>
</div><p>The result? Costco shares' trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio rose from around 25 then to a little over 50 now. That's rich even by the standards of popular technology stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果呢？Costco 股票的市盈率从那时的约 25 上升到现在的 50 多。即使按照热门科技股的标准，这也是相当高的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/42f40eaa6228c84c5860c0818b96ff4d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/42f40eaa6228c84c5860c0818b96ff4d.png"/></p>
<p>COST data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 COST 数据。</p>
</div><p>Most investors understand that the stock is currently overpriced, or at least near fully valued -- it's near analysts' consensus target of just under $890 per share. The fear of missing out on the next leg of its bullish momentum, however, is also palpably strong. That's at least some of the reason the stock's peeled back from its early July peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数投资者明白，该股目前被高估，或者至少接近分析师的一致目标，即每股不到 890 美元。然而，对下一轮牛市势头的错失恐惧也是非常强烈的。这也是股价从 7 月初高点回落的部分原因。</p>
</div><p>Returning to the original question: Is it too late to buy Costco stock? The answer is ... a little.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回到最初的问题：现在买入 Costco 股票是否为时已晚？答案是...有点。</p>
</div><p>But how much is &#34;a little?&#34; That's the problem. As much as many investors would like a decisive, quantitative entry price for Costco, it's not in the cards. This is a stock that ebbs and flows on internal and external qualitative factors; there's a &#34;feel&#34; to it. Here's what can be safely said right now: Shares are valued about as richly now as they have been in 25 years. Just look at the chart below, showing its P/E ratio over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 “有点” 是多少呢？这就是问题所在。尽管许多投资者希望得到一个明确的、定量的 Costco 股票入场价格，但这是不可能的。这是一只股票，其涨落取决于内部和外部的定性因素；有一种 “感觉”。目前可以肯定的是：股价现在大约与过去 25 年的高点一样高。只需看下面的图表，显示其市盈率随时间的变化。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/504213de8f4b1d26a29da6e9bd5b796f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/504213de8f4b1d26a29da6e9bd5b796f.png"/></p>
<p>COST PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 COST 市盈率数据</p>
</div><p>On the flip side, don't be too picky about your entry price. If you're waiting for this stock's P/E ratio to slide back to the mid-20s like it was a few years ago, forget it. If investors start cooling on it, just look for signs that the selling has run its course and the stock's starting to attract buyers again. It's a judgment call, and you'll know it when you see it. Probably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，不要对入场价格太挑剔。如果你等待这只股票的市盈率回落到几年前的中 20 年代，就忘了吧。如果投资者开始对其失去兴趣，只需寻找卖出已经触底并且股票开始吸引买家的迹象。这是一个判断，当你看到时就会知道。大概。</p>
</div><p>And if you don't happen to get in near the exact low, that's OK too. You're still stepping into a fantastic long-term holding. It'll be fine given enough time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你没有恰好买入最低点，也没关系。你仍然在进入一个出色的长期持有。随着时间的推移，一切都会好起来。</p>
</div><h2>Over time, the company matters more than the stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>长期来看，公司比股票更重要</h2>
</div><p>That can certainly be a frustrating concept, particularly to newer investors who like things numerically neat and tidy. <em>Some</em> stocks work that way. However, most of them don't. Don't sweat it. Get used to it, in fact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这当然是一个令人沮丧的概念，特别是对于喜欢数字整洁明了的新手投资者。_一些_股票是这样运作的。然而，大多数股票并非如此。不要为此烦恼。事实上，要适应它。</p>
</div><p>As one of the Motley Fool's core philosophies explains, you invest in companies -- not stocks. Look for quality companies, and their stocks will take care of things in time. Costco stock's certainly done that plenty over its history, even with a sky-high valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如愚人节的核心理念之一所解释的那样，你是在投资公司 -- 而不是股票。寻找优质公司，它们的股票会随着时间解决问题。Costco 股票在其历史上肯定做到了这一点，即使估值极高。</p>
</div><p>And, that's precisely why it's not too late to buy it, provided you're truly looking five or more years down the road. That's also why your exact entry price doesn't matter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也正是为什么现在买入它并不算太晚，前提是你真正看好未来五年或更长时间。这也是为什么你的确切入场价格并不重要。</p>
</div><p>If your time frame is only five weeks, though ... well, that's a different story. Costco shares could easily be priced lower five weeks from now than they are now, but that has more to do with the unpredictable market environment than with the company itself. Trying to time your trade entries, when you're really only looking at the short term, is a dangerous game.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果你的时间框架只有五周...那就是另一回事了。Costco 股票五周后的价格很可能比现在低，但这更多取决于不可预测的市场环境，而不是公司本身。试图在短期内进行交易时机，当你实际上只关注短期时，是一场危险的游戏。</p>
</div>

现在购买 Costco 股票是否已经太晚了？