<p>2024 年对 <strong>SoFi Technologies</strong>(SOFI -7.12%) 投资者来说又是一个痛苦的一年。这家金融服务应用的股价下跌约 20%，目前已经从 2021 年创下的历史最高点下跌了 71%。与此同时，<strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克</strong> 市场指数却在飙升。近年来，随着美联储以历史上最快的速度提高利率，银行和贷款机构面临困境。</p>
<p>SoFi 刚刚公布了第二季度的财报。会员数量持续快速增长，但股价仍然停滞不前。SoFi Technologies 到底发生了什么？它能在未来几年扭转股价吗？</p>
<p>让我们深入研究这份财报，找出答案。</p>
<h2>快速增长的一站式服务</h2>
<p>SoFi 将自己定位为消费者金融的一站式数字平台，为客户提供广泛的产品。这些产品包括支票和储蓄账户、投资经纪、信用卡、个人贷款、学生贷款再融资，甚至抵押贷款。公司在存款利率上提供高利率，上个季度的存款平均利率为 4.24%，希望提供比大型传统银行更有价值的方案，后者向客户支付微薄的利率。</p>
<p>到目前为止，这一战略取得了巨大成功。SoFi 会员总数在第二季度达到 877 万，同比增长 40%，远高于 2021 年初的 228 万。重要的是，现在公司拥有 210 亿美元的消费者存款，上个季度增加了 22 亿美元。SoFi 在 2022 年初才获得银行牌照，使得这种增长显得更加令人印象深刻。这些贷款可以用于发展 SoFi 的贷款业务，这也是银行赚钱的方式。</p>
<h2>不断上升的损失率和微薄的盈利历史</h2>
<p>在贷款方面，SoFi 向客户提供个人贷款、学生贷款和房屋贷款。目前公司资产负债表上的大部分贷款都是个人贷款。投资者可能担心这些贷款的损失率上升。上个季度，坏账率 -- 即公司估计处于违约状态的贷款金额 -- 从上季度的 3.45% 上升至 3.84%。管理层表示这些数据在公司模型内，并且相较于 2017 年，贷款表现更好。</p>
<p>对于 SoFi 的贷款业务并非一片灰暗。事实上，公司的净利差 (NIM) 在第二季度略微扩大至 5.83%。净利差的增加意味着 SoFi 支付给存款人的利息与从贷款中获得的利息之间的差额在扩大（即其净利息收入）。这是一件好事，并表明 SoFi 的银行业务运行顺利。只需密切关注个人贷款的净核销轨迹。</p>
<p>总体而言，SoFi 的股价可能下跌是因为其盈利历史较短。SoFi 从过去三个季度才由净亏损转为正面净收入。公司从未实现过 1 亿美元以上的季度净收入。现在，随着坏账率上升，华尔街对未来几年的利润改善持悲观态度。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9755bbad21a6ffd37e13163b390a99de.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9755bbad21a6ffd37e13163b390a99de.png"/></p>
<p>SOFI 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源：YCharts</p>
<h2>股价下跌，但是否值得买入？</h2>
<p>投资者对 SoFi 的前景非常悲观，这就是为什么股价从 2021 年的高点下跌了 71%。然而，我认为这是错误的，没有看到全局。首先，管理层仍在积极投入资金以获取客户。仅上个季度，市场支出接近 2 亿美元。这种支出是有效的 -- 看看 SoFi 客户数量增长的速度 -- 但会牺牲短期利润。长期投资者应该赞赏这一举措。</p>
<p>其次，SoFi 不仅仅是一个贷款业务。其金融服务部门的净收入上个季度为 1.76 亿美元，同比增长 80%。它拥有一个技术平台，为其他金融机构提供数字银行软件外包服务，每个季度创造 9500 万美元的高利润收入。这些部门使 SoFi 的业务多样化，不仅仅是一个风险较高的消费者贷款机构，而是一个拥有多个不同收入来源的消费者金融平台。</p>
<p>目前，SoFi 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 80，看起来很高。平均增长迅速的股票的市盈率将在 30 到 40 之间。根据公司的指导，2024 年的净收入预计仅为 1.75 亿至 1.85 亿美元。然而，请记住，SoFi 仍在大量投资于营销以获取新客户，这抑制了盈利能力。</p>
<p>只要公司继续以健康的速度增长会员和收入，同时保持略微正面的净收入，投资者应该对 SoFi 的业务发展方向感到满意。管理层正在抓住美国巨大的消费银行机会，使业务有望在未来几年创造丰厚的利润。保持耐心；现在看来是购买 SoFi 股票的好时机。</p>

SOFI

<p>SoFi Technologies 股票自 2021 年高点以来下跌了 71%，原因是市场担忧不良贷款率上升以及公司盈利历史较短。然而，公司会员和收入增长迅速，并且已将业务多元化至贷款以外领域。投资者应考虑 SoFi 作为消费金融平台的长期潜力。目前该股的前瞻市盈率高达 80，部分原因是公司在市场营销方面的大手笔支出。总体而言，SoFi 的股票表现可能并不准确反映其未来前景</p>

<p>2024 has been another painful year for <strong>SoFi Technologies</strong>(SOFI -7.12%) investors. The financial services app is down around 20% and now off 71% from all-time highs set in 2021. All the while the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index and <strong>Nasdaq</strong> market indices are soaring. Banks and lenders have struggled in recent years as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at one of its fastest paces in history, presenting a headwind to these businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年对 <strong>SoFi Technologies</strong>(SOFI -7.12%) 投资者来说又是一个痛苦的一年。这家金融服务应用的股价下跌约 20%，目前已经从 2021 年创下的历史最高点下跌了 71%。与此同时，<strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克</strong> 市场指数却在飙升。近年来，随着美联储以历史上最快的速度提高利率，银行和贷款机构面临困境。</p>
</div><p>SoFi just reported earnings for the second quarter. Membership keeps growing quickly, but the stock still remains stuck in the mud. What is going on with SoFi Technologies? Can it get the stock turned around over the next few years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SoFi 刚刚公布了第二季度的财报。会员数量持续快速增长，但股价仍然停滞不前。SoFi Technologies 到底发生了什么？它能在未来几年扭转股价吗？</p>
</div><p>Let's take a deeper dive into this earnings report and find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们深入研究这份财报，找出答案。</p>
</div><h2>A fast-growing one-stop shop</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>快速增长的一站式服务</h2>
</div><p>Marketing itself as a one-stop digital shop for consumer finance, SoFi has a broad range of products for customers. These include checking and savings accounts, an investing brokerage, credit cards, personal loans, refinancing student loans, and even mortgages. Offering high interest rates on deposits -- it paid an average of 4.24% on interest-bearing deposits last quarter -- the company hopes to offer a better value proposition than the big legacy banks that pay minimal interest rates to customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SoFi 将自己定位为消费者金融的一站式数字平台，为客户提供广泛的产品。这些产品包括支票和储蓄账户、投资经纪、信用卡、个人贷款、学生贷款再融资，甚至抵押贷款。公司在存款利率上提供高利率，上个季度的存款平均利率为 4.24%，希望提供比大型传统银行更有价值的方案，后者向客户支付微薄的利率。</p>
</div><p>So far, this strategy has worked wonderfully. Total SoFi Members hit 8.77 million in the second quarter, growing 40% year over year and up from 2.28 million at the start of 2021. Importantly, it now has $21 billion in consumer deposits, which added $2.2 billion to the balance sheet last quarter. SoFi acquired a banking license only at the start of 2022, making this growth all the more impressive. These loans can be used to grow SoFi's lending business, which is how a bank makes money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，这一战略取得了巨大成功。SoFi 会员总数在第二季度达到 877 万，同比增长 40%，远高于 2021 年初的 228 万。重要的是，现在公司拥有 210 亿美元的消费者存款，上个季度增加了 22 亿美元。SoFi 在 2022 年初才获得银行牌照，使得这种增长显得更加令人印象深刻。这些贷款可以用于发展 SoFi 的贷款业务，这也是银行赚钱的方式。</p>
</div><h2>Rising loss rates and minimal history of profits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不断上升的损失率和微薄的盈利历史</h2>
</div><p>On the lending side, SoFi offers personal loans, student loans, and home loans to its customers. The majority of the loans sitting on its balance sheet currently are personal loans. Investors are likely worried about rising loss rates with these loans. Last quarter, the charge-off rate -- meaning the amount of loans the company estimates are in default -- rose to 3.84% from 3.45% in the first quarter. Management says these are within its models and that loans are performing better now than back in 2017.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在贷款方面，SoFi 向客户提供个人贷款、学生贷款和房屋贷款。目前公司资产负债表上的大部分贷款都是个人贷款。投资者可能担心这些贷款的损失率上升。上个季度，坏账率 -- 即公司估计处于违约状态的贷款金额 -- 从上季度的 3.45% 上升至 3.84%。管理层表示这些数据在公司模型内，并且相较于 2017 年，贷款表现更好。</p>
</div><p>It's not all bad within the lending side of things for SoFi. In fact, the company's net interest margin (NIM) expanded slightly to 5.83% in the second quarter. A rising NIM means a rising spread between the interest SoFi pays depositors vs. the interest it brings in from loans (i.e., its net interest revenue). This is a good thing and shows that SoFi's banking business is running smoothly. Just keep a watchful eye on the trajectory of net charge-offs for personal loans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 SoFi 的贷款业务并非一片灰暗。事实上，公司的净利差 (NIM) 在第二季度略微扩大至 5.83%。净利差的增加意味着 SoFi 支付给存款人的利息与从贷款中获得的利息之间的差额在扩大（即其净利息收入）。这是一件好事，并表明 SoFi 的银行业务运行顺利。只需密切关注个人贷款的净核销轨迹。</p>
</div><p>Overall, it is likely that SoFi's stock is down because of its short history of profitability. It has only been the last three quarters that SoFi flipped from a net loss to positive net income. It has never generated over $100 million in quarterly net income. Now, with charge-offs rising, Wall Street is pessimistic that profits will improve in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，SoFi 的股价可能下跌是因为其盈利历史较短。SoFi 从过去三个季度才由净亏损转为正面净收入。公司从未实现过 1 亿美元以上的季度净收入。现在，随着坏账率上升，华尔街对未来几年的利润改善持悲观态度。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9755bbad21a6ffd37e13163b390a99de.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9755bbad21a6ffd37e13163b390a99de.png"/></p>
<p>SOFI PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SOFI 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源：YCharts</p>
</div><h2>The stock is down, but is it a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股价下跌，但是否值得买入？</h2>
</div><p>Investors are quite bearish on SoFi's prospects, which is why the stock is down 71% from the 2021 price peak. However, I think this is misguided and doesn't look at the big picture. For one, management is still spending aggressively to acquire customers. Marketing spend was close to $200 million just last quarter. This spend is working -- look at how fast SoFi's customer count is growing -- but sacrifices short-term profits. Long-term investors should applaud this move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对 SoFi 的前景非常悲观，这就是为什么股价从 2021 年的高点下跌了 71%。然而，我认为这是错误的，没有看到全局。首先，管理层仍在积极投入资金以获取客户。仅上个季度，市场支出接近 2 亿美元。这种支出是有效的 -- 看看 SoFi 客户数量增长的速度 -- 但会牺牲短期利润。长期投资者应该赞赏这一举措。</p>
</div><p>Second, SoFi is not just a lending business. Net revenue from its financial services division was $176 million last quarter and growing 80% year over year. It has a technology platform for outsourcing digital banking software for <em>other</em> financial institutions that's generating $95 million in high-margin revenue each quarter. These segments diversify SoFi's business from personal loans. This is not just a risky consumer lender, but a consumer finance platform with many different revenue-generating segments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，SoFi 不仅仅是一个贷款业务。其金融服务部门的净收入上个季度为 1.76 亿美元，同比增长 80%。它拥有一个技术平台，为其他金融机构提供数字银行软件外包服务，每个季度创造 9500 万美元的高利润收入。这些部门使 SoFi 的业务多样化，不仅仅是一个风险较高的消费者贷款机构，而是一个拥有多个不同收入来源的消费者金融平台。</p>
</div><p>Today, SoFi trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 80, which looks high on its face. The average fast-growing stock will trade at a P/E between 30 and 40. Net income in 2024 is supposed to be only $175 million-$185 million, according to company guidance. Remember, though, that SoFi is still spending a ton on marketing to acquire new customers, which is suppressing profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，SoFi 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 80，看起来很高。平均增长迅速的股票的市盈率将在 30 到 40 之间。根据公司的指导，2024 年的净收入预计仅为 1.75 亿至 1.85 亿美元。然而，请记住，SoFi 仍在大量投资于营销以获取新客户，这抑制了盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>As long as the company continues to grow its members and revenue at a healthy clip while also maintaining a slightly positive net income, investors should be happy with SoFi's business trajectory. Management is going after a huge consumer banking opportunity in the United States, setting the business up to generate a healthy amount of profits within a few years. Stay patient; now looks like a good time to buy shares of SoFi.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要公司继续以健康的速度增长会员和收入，同时保持略微正面的净收入，投资者应该对 SoFi 的业务发展方向感到满意。管理层正在抓住美国巨大的消费银行机会，使业务有望在未来几年创造丰厚的利润。保持耐心；现在看来是购买 SoFi 股票的好时机。</p>
</div>

SoFi Technologies 的股票发生了什么情况？