<ul>
<li>比特币在发布时接近死亡交叉，暗示可能会进一步下跌。</li>
<li>历史趋势显示，死亡交叉后可能会出现恢复，就像在 2020 年和 2021 年看到的那样。</li>
</ul>
<p>比特币（BTC）在发布时的价格为 57,389 美元。</p>
<p>这不仅标志着比特币价格在过去一天上涨了 3.9%，而且也是比特币在 8 月 5 日下跌后的显着反弹，当时价格跌至 49,781 美元。</p>
<p>尽管比特币价格逐渐反弹，但在撰写本文时，该资产仍比其历史最高价（高于 73,000 美元）下跌约 22.2%。</p>
<h2><strong>比特币面临死亡交叉</strong></h2>
<p>在此期间，比特币似乎摇摆在一个被称为 “死亡交叉” 的技术配置的边缘。</p>
<p>在交易中，这个术语指的是 50 天移动平均线跌破 200 天移动平均线，传统上是交易员的一个熊市指标。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-07-at-11.46.21.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1201" height="885" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-07-at-11.46.21.png"/></p>
<p>来源：X 上的 Barchart</p>
<p>根据 Barchart 的数据，这种模式出现是因为比特币的短期收益未能维持在长期收益之上。</p>
<p>历史上，比特币曾面临类似的模式；例如，死亡交叉曾在 2020 年 3 月发生，然而，随后在同年创下新的历史高点。</p>
<p>另一个例子是 2021 年 6 月，这也预示着一次重要的涨势达到历史水平。</p>
<p>虽然这可能是一个熊市指标，但如果按照历史情景来看，那么比特币很可能即将迎来向上突破。</p>
<p>除此之外，一位在 X（前身为 Twitter）上被称为 ‘walltreetbets’ 的知名加密货币爱好者强调了比特币图表中一个引人注目的模式。</p>
<p>这个模式与 2020 年看到的情况非常相似，当时比特币在 COVID-19 崩盘期间陷入一个下降扩张模式，从不到 5,000 美元急剧反弹至 20,000 美元以上。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-07-at-11.48.24.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1193" height="847" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-07-at-11.48.24.png"/></p>
<p>来源：X 上的 wallstreetbets</p>
<p>根据 Wallstreetbets 的分析，2024 年的图表显示了类似的趋势。</p>
<p>比特币在最近的经济衰退中形成了另一个下降扩张模式，并且似乎已经触底，为类似于 2020 年观察到的复苏奠定了基础。</p>
<h2><strong>基本面展望</strong></h2>
<p>除了技术分析之外，研究比特币的基本面也可以提供对其未来走势的见解。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，比特币的市值与实现价值（MVRV）比率，在发布时为 1.79。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Bitcoin-MVRV-Ratio-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Bitcoin-MVRV-Ratio-3.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>这个比率表明，比特币在撰写本文时被低估，因为低于 2 的值通常表示该资产交易低于其公平价值，提供了一个潜在的买入机会。</p>
<p>此外，比特币的未平仓合约总量，代表着尚未结算的所有衍生合约，如期货和期权，在过去 24 小时内上涨了 3.81%，达到 282.4 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-07-at-11.58.23.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2560" height="730" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-07-at-11.58.23.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Coinglass</p>
<hr/>
<p>您的投资组合状况如何？查看比特币利润计算器</p>
<hr/>
<p>尽管这一增长，未平仓合约总量却大幅下降了 48%，达到 801.2 亿美元。</p>
<p>这种背离通常表明，虽然开放了更多合约，但交易的总价值却下降，这表明市场动量正在降温或交易者情绪发生转变。</p>

<p>比特币面临潜在的 “死亡交叉”，因为其 50 日移动平均线接近其 200 日移动平均线，这在历史上表明了熊市趋势。然而，先前的情况导致了显著的涨势和复苏。比特币的基本面表明它被低估了，提供了一个潜在的买入机会。此外，持仓量增加，但交易价值总体下降，表明市场动量正在降温或情绪发生转变</p>

<ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin neared a death cross at press time, suggesting possible further declines.</em></li>
<li><em>Historical trends showed that recovery was possible post-death cross, as seen in 2020 and 2021.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>比特币在发布时接近死亡交叉，暗示可能会进一步下跌。</li>
<li>历史趋势显示，死亡交叉后可能会出现恢复，就像在 2020 年和 2021 年看到的那样。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Bitcoin [BTC] was trading at a price of $57,389 at press time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币（BTC）在发布时的价格为 57,389 美元。</p>
</div><p>This does not only marked a 3.9% increase in BTC’s price over the past day, but was also a notable rebound from BTC’s decline on the 5th of August, which brought its price to trade as low as $49,781.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不仅标志着比特币价格在过去一天上涨了 3.9%，而且也是比特币在 8 月 5 日下跌后的显着反弹，当时价格跌至 49,781 美元。</p>
</div><p>Regardless of the gradual rebound in BTC’s price, at the time of writing, the asset was still down roughly 22.2% from its all-time high (ATH) above $73,000 in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管比特币价格逐渐反弹，但在撰写本文时，该资产仍比其历史最高价（高于 73,000 美元）下跌约 22.2%。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Death cross looms over Bitcoin</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特币面临死亡交叉</strong></h2>
</div><p>Amid this, Bitcoin appeared to be teetering on the edge of a technical configuration known as a “death cross.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此期间，比特币似乎摇摆在一个被称为 “死亡交叉” 的技术配置的边缘。</p>
</div><p>This term in trading refers to a scenario where the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day moving average, traditionally a bearish indicator for traders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在交易中，这个术语指的是 50 天移动平均线跌破 200 天移动平均线，传统上是交易员的一个熊市指标。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-07-at-11.46.21.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-07-at-11.46.21.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Barchart on X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X 上的 Barchart</p>
</div><p>According to data from Barchart, this pattern was emerging as Bitcoin’s short-term gains had not sustained above its long-term gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Barchart 的数据，这种模式出现是因为比特币的短期收益未能维持在长期收益之上。</p>
</div><p>Historically, Bitcoin has faced similar patterns; for instance, a death cross occurred in March 2020, however, it was followed by a new all-time high later that year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，比特币曾面临类似的模式；例如，死亡交叉曾在 2020 年 3 月发生，然而，随后在同年创下新的历史高点。</p>
</div><p>Another instance was noted in June 2021, which also preceded a significant rally to record levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个例子是 2021 年 6 月，这也预示着一次重要的涨势达到历史水平。</p>
</div><p>While this may be a bearish indicator, if historical scenario is to go by, then BTC may as well be on the verge of a breakout to the upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这可能是一个熊市指标，但如果按照历史情景来看，那么比特币很可能即将迎来向上突破。</p>
</div><p>Adding to this sentiment, a notable crypto enthusiast known on X (formerly Twitter) as ‘walltreetbets’ has highlighted a compelling pattern in Bitcoin’s chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除此之外，一位在 X（前身为 Twitter）上被称为 ‘walltreetbets’ 的知名加密货币爱好者强调了比特币图表中一个引人注目的模式。</p>
</div><p>This pattern closely mirrored the one seen in 2020, when Bitcoin fell into a descending broadening pattern during the COVID-19 crash, only to rebound sharply from below $5,000 to over $20,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个模式与 2020 年看到的情况非常相似，当时比特币在 COVID-19 崩盘期间陷入一个下降扩张模式，从不到 5,000 美元急剧反弹至 20,000 美元以上。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-07-at-11.48.24.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-07-at-11.48.24.png"/></p>
<p>Source: wallstreetbets on X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X 上的 wallstreetbets</p>
</div><p>According to Wallstreetbets’ analysis, the 2024 chart suggested a similar trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Wallstreetbets 的分析，2024 年的图表显示了类似的趋势。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin has formed another descending broadening pattern amidst the recent economic downturn and seemed to have bottomed out, setting the stage for a potential surge akin to the recovery observed in 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币在最近的经济衰退中形成了另一个下降扩张模式，并且似乎已经触底，为类似于 2020 年观察到的复苏奠定了基础。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Fundamental outlook</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>基本面展望</strong></h2>
</div><p>Aides technical analysis, examining Bitcoin’s fundamentals can also provide insight into its future direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了技术分析之外，研究比特币的基本面也可以提供对其未来走势的见解。</p>
</div><p>Notably, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which measures the discrepancy between market price and actual value, was 1.79 at press time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，比特币的市值与实现价值（MVRV）比率，在发布时为 1.79。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Bitcoin-MVRV-Ratio-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Bitcoin-MVRV-Ratio-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>This ratio suggested that Bitcoin was undervalued at the time of writing, as a value below 2 often indicates that the asset was trading below its fair value, presenting a potential buying opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个比率表明，比特币在撰写本文时被低估，因为低于 2 的值通常表示该资产交易低于其公平价值，提供了一个潜在的买入机会。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Bitcoin’s Open Interest, representing the total number of outstanding derivative contracts like Futures and options that have yet to be settled, roseby 3.81% in the past 24 hours to $28.24 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，比特币的未平仓合约总量，代表着尚未结算的所有衍生合约，如期货和期权，在过去 24 小时内上涨了 3.81%，达到 282.4 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-07-at-11.58.23.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-07-at-11.58.23.png"/></p>
<p>Source:: Coinglass</p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Coinglass</p>
<hr/>
</div><p>Is your portfolio green? Check out theBTC Profit Calculator</p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您的投资组合状况如何？查看比特币利润计算器</p>
<hr/>
</div><p>Despite this increase, the Open Interest volume saw a significant decline of 48%, standing at $80.12 Billion at press time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这一增长，未平仓合约总量却大幅下降了 48%，达到 801.2 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>This divergence typically indicates that while more contracts are open, the overall value of trading has decreased, suggesting a cooling off in market momentum or a shift in trader sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种背离通常表明，虽然开放了更多合约，但交易的总价值却下降，这表明市场动量正在降温或交易者情绪发生转变。</p>
</div>

警告！比特币面临死亡交叉——市场是否将迎来动荡？