<p>本周四，金融科技贷款平台 <strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST -3.68%) 的股价飙升了 44%，根据标普全球市场情报 (S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence) 的数据。</p>
<p>这家陷入困境的金融科技公司在运营改善方面报告了好于预期的收益，同时对下半年的前景持更加乐观的态度。考虑到该公司的股价已经大幅下跌，跌幅约为 2021 年高点的 95%，股价在转机前景下飙升。</p>
<h2>利率上升，Upstart 跟着走</h2>
<p>Upstart 的模式是利用人工智能为可能被银行或其他金融机构忽视的客户批准个人和汽车贷款，然后将这些贷款出售给贷款买家。自 2021 年以来，Upstart 面临的问题是随着利率迅速上升，其贷款购买者纷纷离开平台。此外，通货膨胀环境的剧烈转变导致 Upstart 的贷款在 2022 年略有表现不佳。</p>
<p>然而，随着利率似乎已经触顶和 Upstart 自身模型的改进，情况可能正在好转。在本季度，管理层指出贷款申请的转化率提高，签署更长合同的新贷款买家增加，自动化程度提高带来更多运营效率。尽管营收同比下降 9% 至 1.28 亿美元，调整后（非 GAAP）盈利为-0.17 美元，去年略为盈利，但这两个数字均超出预期。</p>
<p>或许更重要的是，Upstart 预测下半年将有所改善。管理层现在预计下个季度营收将达到 1.5 亿美元，同时亏损将收窄。此外，管理层指导下半年费用收入达到 3.2 亿美元，暗示第四季度将有更多增长，并且预计到第四季度将实现正的 EBITDA，从目前的亏损状况转为盈利。</p>
<p>&#34;&#34;模型准确性、欺诈检测、自动化、资金弹性、收购成本和收入优化等方面，与 2022 年相比，都有了长足的进步，&#34;&#34; CEO 戴夫·吉鲁瓦在与分析师的电话会议上指出。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19c4e5176b86c251e3a5d5291c1cbe25.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="575" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19c4e5176b86c251e3a5d5291c1cbe25.png"/></p>
<p>Upstart 的 PS 比数据来源：YCharts</p>
<h2>Upstart 的商业模式仍然存在局限性</h2>
<p>Upstart 通过吸引投资者回到其融资平台并签署更长期的交易，做得不错。然而，我仍认为 Upstart 最终可能需要获得银行牌照并接受存款。金融恐慌或衰退注定会发生，当这些情况发生时，即使公司没有像 2022 年那样迅速出现大规模撤离，融资仍可能成为 Upstart 的限制因素。因此，这仍然是未来的潜在风险。</p>
<p>与拥有这种许可证的同行公司（如 <strong>SoFi Technologies</strong> 和 <strong>LendingClub</strong>）相比，Upstart 仍然更昂贵，无论是按销售额还是按账面价值计算。这意味着华尔街已经认为 Upstart 的财务状况将大幅反弹。考虑到它比这些更具弹性的竞争对手更昂贵，我可能会更多地将投资资金投向这些公司，而不是 Upstart，尤其是在本周股价大幅上涨之后。</p>

UPST

<p>金融科技贷款平台 Upstart 的股价本周上涨了 44%，这主要归因于超出预期的收益和乐观的前景。该公司基于人工智能的核保模型和运营改进正在推动这一好转。Upstart 的营收同比下降了 9%，但管理层预计下半年将有所改善。然而，资金限制和相较竞争对手更高的估值仍然是潜在风险</p>

<p>Shares of fintech loan platform <strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST -3.68%) rocketed 44% higher through Thursday of this week, according to data from S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周四，金融科技贷款平台 <strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST -3.68%) 的股价飙升了 44%，根据标普全球市场情报 (S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence) 的数据。</p>
</div><p>The struggling fintech reported better-than-feared earnings amid operational improvements, along with a more optimistic outlook for the back half of the year. Given that the company has been thoroughly beaten down, about 95% below its 2021 highs, the stock rocketed higher on prospects for a turnaround.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家陷入困境的金融科技公司在运营改善方面报告了好于预期的收益，同时对下半年的前景持更加乐观的态度。考虑到该公司的股价已经大幅下跌，跌幅约为 2021 年高点的 95%，股价在转机前景下飙升。</p>
</div><h2>As interest rates go, so goes Upstart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率上升，Upstart 跟着走</h2>
</div><p>Upstart's model is to use artificial intelligence to underwrite personal and auto loans to customers who may be overlooked by banks or other financial institutions, then to sell those loans to loan buyers. The problem Upstart has seen since 2021 is that as interest rates increased rapidly, its loan purchasers fled the platform. Moreover, the dramatic shift to an inflationary environment caused Upstart's loans to slightly underperform in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 的模式是利用人工智能为可能被银行或其他金融机构忽视的客户批准个人和汽车贷款，然后将这些贷款出售给贷款买家。自 2021 年以来，Upstart 面临的问题是随着利率迅速上升，其贷款购买者纷纷离开平台。此外，通货膨胀环境的剧烈转变导致 Upstart 的贷款在 2022 年略有表现不佳。</p>
</div><p>However, with interest rates seeming to have peaked and Upstart's own model improvements, things may be looking up. During the quarter, management noted improved conversion rates on loan applications, more new loan buyers who signed longer contracts, and more operational efficiency from increased automation. While revenue was down 9% year over year to $128 million and adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings were a negative $0.17 after being slightly positive last year, both figures came in ahead of expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，随着利率似乎已经触顶和 Upstart 自身模型的改进，情况可能正在好转。在本季度，管理层指出贷款申请的转化率提高，签署更长合同的新贷款买家增加，自动化程度提高带来更多运营效率。尽管营收同比下降 9% 至 1.28 亿美元，调整后（非 GAAP）盈利为-0.17 美元，去年略为盈利，但这两个数字均超出预期。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps more importantly, Upstart forecast improvements in the second half. Management now expects $150 million in revenue next quarter, along with narrowing losses. Furthermore, management guided for $320 million in fee revenue in the second half, implying even more growth in Q4, and positive EBITDA by the fourth quarter, flipping from current losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或许更重要的是，Upstart 预测下半年将有所改善。管理层现在预计下个季度营收将达到 1.5 亿美元，同时亏损将收窄。此外，管理层指导下半年费用收入达到 3.2 亿美元，暗示第四季度将有更多增长，并且预计到第四季度将实现正的 EBITDA，从目前的亏损状况转为盈利。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Model accuracy, fraud detection, automation, funding resiliency, acquisition costs, and revenue optimization are leaps and bounds better than they were in 2022,&#34; noted CEO Dave Girouard on the conference call with analysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;&#34;模型准确性、欺诈检测、自动化、资金弹性、收购成本和收入优化等方面，与 2022 年相比，都有了长足的进步，&#34;&#34; CEO 戴夫·吉鲁瓦在与分析师的电话会议上指出。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19c4e5176b86c251e3a5d5291c1cbe25.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19c4e5176b86c251e3a5d5291c1cbe25.png"/></p>
<p>UPST PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 的 PS 比数据来源：YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Upstart's business model still has limitations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Upstart 的商业模式仍然存在局限性</h2>
</div><p>Upstart has done a nice job of recovering by luring investors back to its funding platform and signing them up to more long-term deals. However, I still think it may be necessary for Upstart to eventually get a banking license and accept deposits. Financial scares or downturns are bound to happen, and when they do, funding may still be a limitation for Upstart, even if it doesn't see the rapid exodus the company saw in 2022. So, that remains a potential risk going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 通过吸引投资者回到其融资平台并签署更长期的交易，做得不错。然而，我仍认为 Upstart 最终可能需要获得银行牌照并接受存款。金融恐慌或衰退注定会发生，当这些情况发生时，即使公司没有像 2022 年那样迅速出现大规模撤离，融资仍可能成为 Upstart 的限制因素。因此，这仍然是未来的潜在风险。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Upstart remains more expensive than its fintech peers that do have such a license, such as <strong>SoFi Technologies</strong> and <strong>LendingClub</strong>, on both a price-to-sales and price-to-book basis. That implies Wall Street already thinks Upstart's financials will bounce back in a big way. Given that it's more expensive than these more resilient competitors, I would perhaps steer more investing dollars there instead of Upstart, especially after this massive jump in the stock this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与拥有这种许可证的同行公司（如 <strong>SoFi Technologies</strong> 和 <strong>LendingClub</strong>）相比，Upstart 仍然更昂贵，无论是按销售额还是按账面价值计算。这意味着华尔街已经认为 Upstart 的财务状况将大幅反弹。考虑到它比这些更具弹性的竞争对手更昂贵，我可能会更多地将投资资金投向这些公司，而不是 Upstart，尤其是在本周股价大幅上涨之后。</p>
</div>

为什么 Upstart 本周迄今为止飙升了 44%