<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/57707242_l_normal_none-scaled.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/57707242_l_normal_none-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>挪威的货币克朗（NOK）贬值正在成为该国的双刃剑。</p>
<p>一方面，它带动了旅游业的激增，吸引了曾经觉得该国价格昂贵的游客。另一方面，尽管货币贬值引发了对整体经济的担忧，但却支撑了海鲜出口。</p>
<p>这种复杂的情况突显了挪威金融格局在货币贬值的压力下正在发生变化。</p>
<h2>货币贬值推动旅游业增长</h2>
<p>挪威历来被认为是欧洲最昂贵的旅游目的地之一，如今由于其货币价值的贬值，吸引了大量游客。</p>
<p>自 2024 年初以来，挪威克朗对美元贬值了 5.85%，对欧元贬值了 4.84%。</p>
<p>这一趋势始于 2014 年原油价格暴跌，持续使挪威对国际旅行者更加实惠。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-09-at-8.18.11PM-1024x535.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-09-at-8.18.11PM-1024x535.png"/></p>
<p><em>旅游者酒店客房夜数的发展相对于</em> <em>NOK 货币价值的变化</em></p>
<p><em>来源：泰勒和弗朗西斯</em></p>
<p>中国、美国、德国、荷兰以及邻国瑞典和丹麦等国现在都向挪威派遣更多游客。</p>
<p>从壮丽的峡湾到迷人的极光，挪威自然奇观的吸引力现在更加容易让更广泛的游客群体接触到。</p>
<p>据 Statista 称，预计 2024 年挪威的旅游市场将创造 4682 亿美元（429.1 亿欧元）的价值。该市场预计从 2024 年到 2029 年以每年 3.03% 的速度增长，到 2029 年可能达到 543.6 亿美元（497.7 亿欧元）的价值。</p>
<p>克朗贬值是这一预期增长的关键因素，使挪威对注重预算的旅行者更具吸引力。</p>
<h2>挪威海鲜出口激增</h2>
<p>克朗贬值也对挪威海鲜产业产生了重大影响，这是该国经济的重要组成部分。</p>
<p>7 月份，挪威海鲜出口达到 130 亿挪威克朗（11.8 亿美元/10.8 亿欧元），较去年同期增长了 6%。</p>
<p>尽管鲑鱼价格大幅下跌，通常会对收入造成压力，但出口价值却出现了激增。</p>
<p>挪威海鲜理事会首席执行官克里斯蒂安·克拉默将这一增长主要归因于货币效应。</p>
<p>克拉默解释道：“我们看到鲑鱼价格大幅下跌被产量增长所抵消，最终是货币效应增加了价值。”</p>
<p>7 月份，挪威海鲜出口的主要市场包括波兰、丹麦和荷兰，该国向 111 个国家出口，比去年同期多出一个国家。</p>
<p>2023 年，挪威海鲜出口价值达到了历史最高，共有 1720 亿挪威克朗的海鲜出口。克拉默指出，克朗的贬值为这一总额贡献了近 150 亿挪威克朗，突显了货币对该行业的影响。</p>
<h2>克朗为何贬值？</h2>
<p>挪威的克朗曾经是经济实力的象征，但在过去十年里，它出现了显著贬值。</p>
<p>货币贬值主要与该国对石油和天然气出口的严重依赖有关。</p>
<p>随着全球石油价格的下跌，克朗的价值也在下降。</p>
<p>此外，全球经济不确定性和风险规避导致了克朗的抛售，被认为是 G10 国家中最不稳定的货币之一。</p>
<p>通货膨胀的快速下降进一步削弱了货币，表明经济可能比预期的更快降温，影响了投资者信心。</p>
<p>挪威央行挪威银行并没有对克朗设定政策目标，但承认货币对通胀和经济活动的重要性。</p>
<p>行长伊达·沃尔登·巴赫强调，较为紧缩的货币政策通常会加强克朗，但当前环境存在挑战。</p>
<p>分析师对克朗的短期前景并不特别乐观。</p>
<p>Commerzbank 的外汇策略师沃尔克马尔·鲍尔指出，尽管挪威银行的紧缩立场可能提振市场信心，但在当前风险规避环境下，克朗的显著涨幅不太可能。</p>
<p>ING 的外汇策略师弗朗切斯科·佩索莱也表达了这种看法，承认在高市场波动性的情况下，预测克朗复苏的困难。</p>
<p>然而，佩索莱建议，欧元/挪威克朗汇率可能会出现修正，预计克朗的反弹幅度将大于瑞典克朗，这是由于两国货币政策的不同。</p>
<p>尽管回归较强水平仍不确定，但克朗的贬值目前为旅游和海鲜出口等行业提供了临时助力。</p>
<p>然而，货币疲软的更广泛经济影响继续笼罩着挪威的金融未来。</p>
<p>本文来源：Invezz，标题：挪威的弱克朗（NOK）如何推动旅游业和海鲜出口增长</p>

诺基亚

<p>挪威的货币克朗（NOK）走弱，推动了旅游业和海产品出口的增长。克朗的贬值使得该国对国际旅行者更加实惠，导致旅游业迎来了激增。此外，货币贬值也提振了海产品出口，尽管鲑鱼价格大幅下跌。克朗的疲软归因于该国对石油和天然气出口的严重依赖。克朗的未来前景仍不确定，但目前的贬值正在惠及旅游业和海产品出口等行业</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/57707242_l_normal_none-scaled.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/57707242_l_normal_none-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>Norway’s weakening currency, the krone (NOK), is turning out to be a double-edged sword for the country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挪威的货币克朗（NOK）贬值正在成为该国的双刃剑。</p>
</div><p>On one side, it’s driving a surge in tourism, attracting visitors who once found the country prohibitively expensive. On the other, it’s bolstering seafood exports, even as the currency’s decline raises concerns about the broader economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，它带动了旅游业的激增，吸引了曾经觉得该国价格昂贵的游客。另一方面，尽管货币贬值引发了对整体经济的担忧，但却支撑了海鲜出口。</p>
</div><p>This complex scenario highlights how Norway’s financial landscape is evolving under the weight of currency depreciation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种复杂的情况突显了挪威金融格局在货币贬值的压力下正在发生变化。</p>
</div><h2>Currency depreciation boosting tourism</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>货币贬值推动旅游业增长</h2>
</div><p>Historically known as one of Europe’s most expensive travel destinations, Norway is now seeing a significant influx of tourists, thanks to the weakened value of its currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挪威历来被认为是欧洲最昂贵的旅游目的地之一，如今由于其货币价值的贬值，吸引了大量游客。</p>
</div><p>Since the start of 2024, the Norwegian krone has depreciated by 5.85% against the US dollar and 4.84% against the euro.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2024 年初以来，挪威克朗对美元贬值了 5.85%，对欧元贬值了 4.84%。</p>
</div><p>This trend, which began in 2014 with the plunge in crude oil prices, has continued to make Norway more affordable for international travelers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一趋势始于 2014 年原油价格暴跌，持续使挪威对国际旅行者更加实惠。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-09-at-8.18.11PM-1024x535.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-09-at-8.18.11PM-1024x535.png"/></p>
<p><em>Development in the</em> number of tourists’ hotel guest nights relative to changes in the <em>value of NOK currency</em></p>
<p><em>Source: Taylor &amp; Francis</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>旅游者酒店客房夜数的发展相对于</em> <em>NOK 货币价值的变化</em></p>
<p><em>来源：泰勒和弗朗西斯</em></p>
</div><p>Countries such as China, the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, and neighboring Sweden and Denmark are now sending more tourists to Norway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国、美国、德国、荷兰以及邻国瑞典和丹麦等国现在都向挪威派遣更多游客。</p>
</div><p>The appeal of Norway’s natural wonders, from the majestic fjords to the mesmerizing Northern Lights, is now more accessible to a wider range of visitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从壮丽的峡湾到迷人的极光，挪威自然奇观的吸引力现在更加容易让更广泛的游客群体接触到。</p>
</div><p>According to Statista, Norway’s travel and tourism market is expected to generate $4,682 million (€4,291 million) in 2024. This market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3.03% from 2024 to 2029, potentially reaching a value of $5,436 million (€4,977 million) by 2029.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据 Statista 称，预计 2024 年挪威的旅游市场将创造 4682 亿美元（429.1 亿欧元）的价值。该市场预计从 2024 年到 2029 年以每年 3.03% 的速度增长，到 2029 年可能达到 543.6 亿美元（497.7 亿欧元）的价值。</p>
</div><p>The weakening krone is a key factor in this anticipated growth, making Norway a more attractive destination for budget-conscious travelers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克朗贬值是这一预期增长的关键因素，使挪威对注重预算的旅行者更具吸引力。</p>
</div><h2>Norwegian seafood exports surge</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>挪威海鲜出口激增</h2>
</div><p>The depreciation of the krone has also had a significant impact on Norway’s seafood industry, a vital component of the country’s economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克朗贬值也对挪威海鲜产业产生了重大影响，这是该国经济的重要组成部分。</p>
</div><p>In July, Norwegian seafood exports reached NOK 13 billion ($1.18 billion/€1.08 billion), marking a 6% increase compared to the same period last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月份，挪威海鲜出口达到 130 亿挪威克朗（11.8 亿美元/10.8 亿欧元），较去年同期增长了 6%。</p>
</div><p>This surge in export value comes despite a sharp decline in salmon prices, which would typically put pressure on revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管鲑鱼价格大幅下跌，通常会对收入造成压力，但出口价值却出现了激增。</p>
</div><p>Christian Chramer, CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council, attributed this growth primarily to the currency effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挪威海鲜理事会首席执行官克里斯蒂安·克拉默将这一增长主要归因于货币效应。</p>
</div><p>“We see that a sharp decline in salmon prices was compensated by volume growth, and in the end, it is the currency effect that adds value,” Chramer explained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克拉默解释道：“我们看到鲑鱼价格大幅下跌被产量增长所抵消，最终是货币效应增加了价值。”</p>
</div><p>Norway’s top markets for seafood exports in July included Poland, Denmark, and the Netherlands, with the country exporting to 111 nations, one more than in July last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月份，挪威海鲜出口的主要市场包括波兰、丹麦和荷兰，该国向 111 个国家出口，比去年同期多出一个国家。</p>
</div><p>The value of Norwegian seafood exports reached an all-time high in 2023, with NOK 172 billion worth of seafood shipped out of the country. Chramer noted that the krone’s devaluation contributed nearly NOK 15 billion to this total, underscoring the currency’s impact on the industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年，挪威海鲜出口价值达到了历史最高，共有 1720 亿挪威克朗的海鲜出口。克拉默指出，克朗的贬值为这一总额贡献了近 150 亿挪威克朗，突显了货币对该行业的影响。</p>
</div><h2>Why is the Kroner falling?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>克朗为何贬值？</h2>
</div><p>Norway’s krone, once a symbol of economic strength, has seen a significant weakening over the past decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挪威的克朗曾经是经济实力的象征，但在过去十年里，它出现了显著贬值。</p>
</div><p>The currency’s decline is primarily linked to the country’s heavy dependence on oil and gas exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币贬值主要与该国对石油和天然气出口的严重依赖有关。</p>
</div><p>As global oil prices have dropped, so too has the value of the krone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着全球石油价格的下跌，克朗的价值也在下降。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, global economic uncertainties and risk aversion have led to a sell-off in the krone, which is considered one of the most volatile currencies among the G10 nations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，全球经济不确定性和风险规避导致了克朗的抛售，被认为是 G10 国家中最不稳定的货币之一。</p>
</div><p>The rapid decline in inflation has further weakened the currency, signaling that the economy may be cooling faster than anticipated and affecting investor confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通货膨胀的快速下降进一步削弱了货币，表明经济可能比预期的更快降温，影响了投资者信心。</p>
</div><p>Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank, does not have a policy target for the krone, but it recognizes the currency’s importance for inflation and economic activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挪威央行挪威银行并没有对克朗设定政策目标，但承认货币对通胀和经济活动的重要性。</p>
</div><p>Governor Ida Wolden Bache has emphasized that a tighter monetary stance typically strengthens the krone, but the current environment presents challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行长伊达·沃尔登·巴赫强调，较为紧缩的货币政策通常会加强克朗，但当前环境存在挑战。</p>
</div><p>Analysts are not particularly optimistic about the krone’s short-term prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师对克朗的短期前景并不特别乐观。</p>
</div><p>Commerzbank’s FX strategist Volkmar Baur noted that while a restrictive stance from Norges Bank could boost market confidence, significant gains for the NOK are unlikely in the current risk-averse environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Commerzbank 的外汇策略师沃尔克马尔·鲍尔指出，尽管挪威银行的紧缩立场可能提振市场信心，但在当前风险规避环境下，克朗的显著涨幅不太可能。</p>
</div><p>Francesco Pesole, an FX strategist at ING, echoed this sentiment, acknowledging the difficulty of predicting a recovery for the krone amid high market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 的外汇策略师弗朗切斯科·佩索莱也表达了这种看法，承认在高市场波动性的情况下，预测克朗复苏的困难。</p>
</div><p>However, Pesole suggested that a correction in the EUR/NOK exchange rate might be possible, with a greater rebound expected in the NOK compared to the Swedish krona (SEK) due to differing monetary policies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，佩索莱建议，欧元/挪威克朗汇率可能会出现修正，预计克朗的反弹幅度将大于瑞典克朗，这是由于两国货币政策的不同。</p>
</div><p>While a return to stronger levels remains uncertain, the krone’s depreciation is currently providing a temporary boost to sectors like tourism and seafood exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管回归较强水平仍不确定，但克朗的贬值目前为旅游和海鲜出口等行业提供了临时助力。</p>
</div><p>Yet, the broader economic implications of a weak currency continue to cast a shadow over Norway’s financial future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，货币疲软的更广泛经济影响继续笼罩着挪威的金融未来。</p>
</div><p>The post How Norway’s weak krone (NOK) is driving growth in tourism and seafood exports appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文来源：Invezz，标题：挪威的弱克朗（NOK）如何推动旅游业和海鲜出口增长</p>
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挪威弱势克朗（NOK）如何推动旅游业和海产品出口的增长