<p>截至目前，美国上市的五家公司已经加入了万亿美元俱乐部，而 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -0.21%）（BRK.B 0.03%）还没有成为其中之一，至少目前还没有。截至 8 月 8 日，由沃伦·巴菲特领导的这家企业巨头的市值为 9260 亿美元，排名第六，是第六大上市公司。</p>
<p>在 6 月份达到历史最高点时，伯克希尔曾经是神秘的万亿美元俱乐部成员，市值约为 1.06 万亿美元。但自那时以来，股价有所回落，主要是受到宏观经济担忧的影响。</p>
<p>考虑到这一点，伯克希尔能否在未来一年左右再次超过万亿美元的市值？以下是一些可能的推动因素，无论是积极的还是消极的，都可能决定其未来走势。</p>
<h2>伯克希尔在 2025 年（或更早）达到 1 万亿美元的原因</h2>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦的业务主要分为三个部分：经营业务、股票投资组合和现金。因此，让我们逐一来看看这些。</p>
<ul>
<li>伯克希尔的股票投资组合是最直接的潜在推动因素。目前，其市值为 3040 亿美元（占伯克希尔总市值的 33%），强劲的股票表现可能为伯克希尔的估值增加数十亿美元。</li>
<li>伯克希尔的现金和短期投资为 2770 亿美元，更具变数性。目前，它为公司每年创造约 140 亿美元的利息收入，但如果巴菲特及其团队找到了明智的方式来大量利用这笔资金（例如，一个有吸引力的收购机会），这可能有助于推动股价上涨。</li>
<li>经营业务表现良好，第二季度经营收益同比增长 15%。如果公司在 2025 年继续产生类似增长，这可能成为股票的重要推动因素。</li>
</ul>
<h2>需要注意的潜在阻力</h2>
<p>另一方面，有几个潜在因素可能导致股价保持在万亿美元门槛以下，甚至走低。</p>
<p>一个明显的例子是经济衰退。虽然伯克希尔的大部分经营业务相对不受经济衰退影响（在经济不景气时，人们仍然支付电费和汽车保险），但并非所有业务都是如此。经济衰退可能对伯克希尔股票投资组合中的许多持股产生不利影响。</p>
<p>降低利率也值得一提，因为它们可能是一把双刃剑。虽然较低的利率可能是伯克希尔许多投资的积极推动因素，但值得注意的是，伯克希尔持有超过 2300 亿美元的短期国债，这些国债为伯克希尔提供年化约 5% 的收益。如果到 2025 年底利率下降两个百分点，这是目前的共识估计，可能会使伯克希尔每年的利息收入减少数十亿美元。</p>
<p>还有很多其他因素。但关键是有很多事情可能出错。</p>
<h2>结论</h2>
<p>没有人有一颗水晶球可以告诉我们伯克希尔会做什么，但从数学上讲，股价很可能在未来一年左右达到万亿美元的市值。首先，这将需要伯克希尔股价大约上涨 8%，远低于公司的长期平均水平，甚至低于标普 500 指数的长期平均回报。从这个意义上说，如果伯克希尔仅在 2025 年底达到 1 万亿美元的市值，这将有些令人失望。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

<p>根据各种因素分析，伯克希尔哈撒韦有望在 2025 年达到万亿美元的市值。积极因素包括强劲的股票表现和营运收益增长。然而，潜在的阻力如经济衰退或利率下降可能会阻碍其进展。虽然伯克希尔很可能会实现万亿美元的市值，但外部因素可能会影响其发展轨迹</p>

<p>As of this writing, there are five U.S.-listed stocks in the trillion-dollar club, and <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.21%) (BRK.B 0.03%) isn't one of them -- not yet anyway. The Warren Buffett-led conglomerate has a market cap of $926 billion as of Aug. 8, making it the sixth-largest publicly traded company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，美国上市的五家公司已经加入了万亿美元俱乐部，而 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -0.21%）（BRK.B 0.03%）还没有成为其中之一，至少目前还没有。截至 8 月 8 日，由沃伦·巴菲特领导的这家企业巨头的市值为 9260 亿美元，排名第六，是第六大上市公司。</p>
</div><p>At its all-time high reached in June, Berkshire <em>was</em> in the elusive trillion-dollar club, with a market cap of about $1.06 trillion. But the share price has since pulled back a bit, mainly on macroeconomic worries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 6 月份达到历史最高点时，伯克希尔曾经是神秘的万亿美元俱乐部成员，市值约为 1.06 万亿美元。但自那时以来，股价有所回落，主要是受到宏观经济担忧的影响。</p>
</div><p>With that in mind, can Berkshire surpass a trillion-dollar market cap again within the next year or so? Here are some potential catalysts -- both positive and negative -- that could determine its future trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一点，伯克希尔能否在未来一年左右再次超过万亿美元的市值？以下是一些可能的推动因素，无论是积极的还是消极的，都可能决定其未来走势。</p>
</div><h2>Reasons Berkshire could reach $1 trillion in 2025 (or sooner)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯克希尔在 2025 年（或更早）达到 1 万亿美元的原因</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire Hathaway's operation has three main parts: its operating businesses, stock portfolio, and cash. So, let's take these one at a time.</p>
<ul>
<li>Berkshire's stock portfolio is the most straightforward potential catalyst. It currently has a market value of $304 billion (33% of Berkshire's total market cap), and strong stock performance could potentially add tens of billions of dollars to Berkshire's valuation.</li>
<li>Berkshire's $277 billion in cash and short-term investments is more of a wildcard. It currently generates about $14 billion in annual interest income for the company, but if Buffett and his team find a smart way to put a lot of it to work (an attractive acquisition opportunity, for example), it could help drive the stock higher.</li>
<li>The operating businesses have been performing well, with operating earnings climbing 15% year over year in the second quarter. If the company can produce similar growth as we head into 2025, it could be a big catalyst for the stock.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦的业务主要分为三个部分：经营业务、股票投资组合和现金。因此，让我们逐一来看看这些。</p>
</div><h2>Potential headwinds to keep in mind</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>伯克希尔的股票投资组合是最直接的潜在推动因素。目前，其市值为 3040 亿美元（占伯克希尔总市值的 33%），强劲的股票表现可能为伯克希尔的估值增加数十亿美元。</li>
<li>伯克希尔的现金和短期投资为 2770 亿美元，更具变数性。目前，它为公司每年创造约 140 亿美元的利息收入，但如果巴菲特及其团队找到了明智的方式来大量利用这笔资金（例如，一个有吸引力的收购机会），这可能有助于推动股价上涨。</li>
<li>经营业务表现良好，第二季度经营收益同比增长 15%。如果公司在 2025 年继续产生类似增长，这可能成为股票的重要推动因素。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>On the other hand, there are several potential catalysts that could cause the stock to stay under the trillion-dollar threshold or even move lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>需要注意的潜在阻力</h2>
</div><p>The obvious example is if a recession hits. While most of Berkshire's operating businesses are fairly recession-proof (people still pay their electric bills and auto insurance in bad economies), not all of them are. A recession could adversely affect many of the holdings in Berkshire's stock portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，有几个潜在因素可能导致股价保持在万亿美元门槛以下，甚至走低。</p>
</div><p>Falling interest rates are also worth mentioning, as they can be a mixed bag. While lower rates would likely be a positive catalyst for many of Berkshire's investments, it's also worth noting that Berkshire has more than $230 <em>billion</em> in short-term Treasury securities, which are paying Berkshire an annualized yield of about 5%. If rates fall by two percentage points by the end of 2025, which is the consensus estimate right now, it could cost Berkshire several billion dollars in annual interest income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个明显的例子是经济衰退。虽然伯克希尔的大部分经营业务相对不受经济衰退影响（在经济不景气时，人们仍然支付电费和汽车保险），但并非所有业务都是如此。经济衰退可能对伯克希尔股票投资组合中的许多持股产生不利影响。</p>
</div><p>There are plenty of others. But the point is that there is plenty that could go wrong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>降低利率也值得一提，因为它们可能是一把双刃剑。虽然较低的利率可能是伯克希尔许多投资的积极推动因素，但值得注意的是，伯克希尔持有超过 2300 亿美元的短期国债，这些国债为伯克希尔提供年化约 5% 的收益。如果到 2025 年底利率下降两个百分点，这是目前的共识估计，可能会使伯克希尔每年的利息收入减少数十亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>The bottom line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有很多其他因素。但关键是有很多事情可能出错。</p>
</div><p>Nobody has a crystal ball that can tell us what Berkshire will do, but mathematically, it is quite likely that the stock will achieve a trillion-dollar market cap within the next year or so. For one thing, doing so would require a roughly 8% gain in Berkshire's share price, which is well below the company's long-term average and even below the long-term average return of the S&amp;P 500. In this sense, it would be somewhat disappointing if Berkshire <em>only</em> reached a $1 trillion market cap by the end of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结论</h2>
</div><p>On the other hand, as we've seen, plenty of factors outside Berkshire's control, such as the possibility of a recession, could stand in its way. But with that in mind, I'd say that there's a greater than 50/50 probability that Berkshire will rejoin the trillion-dollar club before the end of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有人有一颗水晶球可以告诉我们伯克希尔会做什么，但从数学上讲，股价很可能在未来一年左右达到万亿美元的市值。首先，这将需要伯克希尔股价大约上涨 8%，远低于公司的长期平均水平，甚至低于标普 500 指数的长期平均回报。从这个意义上说，如果伯克希尔仅在 2025 年底达到 1 万亿美元的市值，这将有些令人失望。</p>
</div>

Will Berkshire Hathaway Reach a Trillion-Dollar Market Cap in 2025?

- 伯克希尔哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）市值为 9260 亿美元，位列第六。- 伯克希尔的股票组合市值为 3040 亿美元，可能推动市值增长。- 若运营业务继续增长，2025 年前可能重返万亿美元 klub。- 然而，经济衰退或利率下降等因素可能阻碍其达到万亿美元市值。

伯克希尔哈撒韦会在 2025 年达到万亿美元市值吗？