<p><strong>Peloton Interactive</strong>(PTON 5.00%) 在冠状病毒大流行期间家喻户晓。消费者们争相购买该公司的联网健身设备。但是公司的命运已经转坏。它是否有机会重拾昔日的魔力，让股东们成为百万富翁呢？</p>
<h2>Peloton 和华尔街的智慧</h2>
<p>华尔街有一句谚语，说捡起下跌的刀子有多危险。这句话告诉那些看到股价急剧下跌的投资者，也许存在巨大的扭转潜力。有时候确实如此。但通常，一个陷入困境的公司就是一个陷入困境的公司。这就是为什么大多数投资者不应该尝试投资于扭转股。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgwMTkvMjJfMDlfMDktYS1wZXJzb24tb24tYW4tZXhlcmNpc2UtYmlrZS1fcGVsb3Rvbi1pbWFnZS1zb3VyY2VfLWdldHR5LV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgwMTkvMjJfMDlfMDktYS1wZXJzb24tb24tYW4tZXhlcmNpc2UtYmlrZS1fcGVsb3Rvbi1pbWFnZS1zb3VyY2VfLWdldHR5LV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>Peloton 是一只扭转股。这里的故事对该公司来说独一无二，但这个主题在华尔街上经常出现。一家公司推出了引起消费者注意的产品。产品热潮导致巨大需求，投资者将需求过度延伸到未来，设想巨额销售和收益的潜力。该公司的股价飙升。</p>
<p>然后竞争对手开始推出仿制产品。需求并没有像想象的那样强劲。热潮开始消退，华尔街对该股的热爱也随之消退。突然间，一个本应朝着天空飞速增长的公司表现不佳，甚至开始亏损...而且亏损越来越多。投资者开始恐慌性抛售，将股价不断推低。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/09285200fd94481a47f15422c173a41b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/09285200fd94481a47f15422c173a41b.png"/></p>
<p>PTON 数据来源：YCharts</p>
<p>看一下上面 Peloton 的图表，你可以很容易地看出价格波动中概述的故事。Peloton 的故事版本对 Peloton 来说是独特的，但总体主题与不久前的 SodaStream（SodaStream 最终被 <strong>百事公司</strong> 收购）相同。然而，今天的问题是，Peloton 是否真的有扭转潜力。</p>
<h2>Peloton 没有舵手</h2>
<p>Peloton 最后一次重大推动是将其业务模式从制造联网健身设备转变为销售健身订阅服务。订阅服务往往是高毛利的产品，因为你只需创造内容一次，然后一遍又一遍地销售。考虑到订阅是联网设备故事的关键部分，这种转变的想法是合理的。</p>
<p>然而，事实并不如人意。在 2024 财年第三季度，付费应用订阅数量同比下降了 21%。与公司健身设备相关的订阅数量要强得多；保持不变。然而，这两个数字都不代表一个特别好的结果，策划订阅理念的首席执行官在 2024 财年第三季度财报发布当天辞职。</p>
<p>公平地说，自那时以来，Peloton 已经做出了一些重要举措，包括重新融资即将到期的债务。但这要求公司从零息债务转向实际带有成本的债务。具体而言，Peloton 偿还了 8 亿美元的零息可转换债务，并发行了 3.5 亿美元的带有 5.5% 利率的可转换债务。</p>
<p>虽然 Peloton 需要推迟债务到期日并找到一种方式来减少总体杠杆（可转债发行是一项更大的重组的一部分），但即使在较小的余额上，从零利息成本到 5.5%，这将使公司更难实现盈利。</p>
<p>但这里仍然存在一个长期问题尚未解决。鉴于首席执行官的离职，很可能是因为订阅理念行不通，Peloton 的商业模式是什么？在有新领导者到位之前，公司实际上是在没有计划的情况下运作。如果没有计划，就无法评估 Peloton 的扭转潜力。</p>
<h2>Peloton 接下来的财报可能会很糟糕</h2>
<p>Peloton 定于 2024 财年第四季度财报发布日期为 8 月 22 日。也许公司会在那时宣布新的首席执行官，也可能不会。但无论如何，由于其大规模订阅推动效果不佳，公司的财务业绩都不太可能好。而无论新首席执行官何时上任，投资者都需要为需要时间才能获得成效的方向转变做好准备。甚至可能需要一段时间，新首席执行官才能提出一个计划，因为他们可能对公司还很陌生。</p>
<p>这很可能意味着在接下来的几个季度，至少会有更多的财报坏消息。这也意味着投资者无法真正判断 Peloton 是否有合法的扭转潜力，可以让 Peloton 成为百万富翁制造者。当然，如果股价回到先前的高点，扭转吸引力将是巨大的。但目前，大多数投资者应该避开这只股票，因为今天没有明确的路径朝着这样的结果。风险/回报平衡目前仍倾向于错误的方向。</p>

PTON

<p>Peloton Interactive（PTON）在疫情期间备受欢迎后经历了下滑。该公司试图转向订阅模式，但在 2024 年第三季度付费应用订阅下降了 21%，导致首席执行官离职。Peloton 在再融资后面临着增加的债务成本。由于缺乏新 CEO，公司未来方向不明确，即将公布的财报预计将令人失望。投资者应为未来面临的具有挑战性的财务结果做好准备，因为缺乏坚实的扭转策略</p>

<p><strong>Peloton Interactive</strong>(PTON 5.00%) was a household name during the coronavirus pandemic. Consumers were lined up to buy the company's connected exercise equipment. But the company's fortunes have turned for the worse. Is there a chance that it could get back the old magic and turn shareholders into millionaires?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Peloton Interactive</strong>(PTON 5.00%) 在冠状病毒大流行期间家喻户晓。消费者们争相购买该公司的联网健身设备。但是公司的命运已经转坏。它是否有机会重拾昔日的魔力，让股东们成为百万富翁呢？</p>
</div><h2>Peloton and Wall Street wisdom</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Peloton 和华尔街的智慧</h2>
</div><p>There's a saying on Wall Street about how dangerous it is to try to catch a falling knife. That saying speaks to investors that see a steeply falling stock price and think that, maybe, there's huge turnaround potential. Sometimes, there is. But usually a troubled company is just a troubled company. This is why most investors shouldn't try to invest in turnaround stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街有一句谚语，说捡起下跌的刀子有多危险。这句话告诉那些看到股价急剧下跌的投资者，也许存在巨大的扭转潜力。有时候确实如此。但通常，一个陷入困境的公司就是一个陷入困境的公司。这就是为什么大多数投资者不应该尝试投资于扭转股。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgwMTkvMjJfMDlfMDktYS1wZXJzb24tb24tYW4tZXhlcmNpc2UtYmlrZS1fcGVsb3Rvbi1pbWFnZS1zb3VyY2VfLWdldHR5LV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F788019%2F22_09_09-a-person-on-an-exercise-bike-_peloton-image-source_-getty-_mf-dload.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Peloton is a turnaround stock. The story here is unique to the company, but the theme is repeated quite frequently on Wall Street. A company creates a product that catches the attention of consumers. The product fad leads to huge demand and investors extrapolate the demand too far into the future, envisioning the potential for huge sales and earnings. The stock of the company rockets higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton 是一只扭转股。这里的故事对该公司来说独一无二，但这个主题在华尔街上经常出现。一家公司推出了引起消费者注意的产品。产品热潮导致巨大需求，投资者将需求过度延伸到未来，设想巨额销售和收益的潜力。该公司的股价飙升。</p>
</div><p>Then competitors start to create me-too products. And demand doesn't prove to be quite as resilient as thought. The fad begins to fade and so, too, does Wall Street's love for the stock. Suddenly a company that was expected to grow to the sky isn't doing so well, perhaps it even starts losing money...and more money. Investors begin to flee in fear, pushing the stock down further and further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后竞争对手开始推出仿制产品。需求并没有像想象的那样强劲。热潮开始消退，华尔街对该股的热爱也随之消退。突然间，一个本应朝着天空飞速增长的公司表现不佳，甚至开始亏损...而且亏损越来越多。投资者开始恐慌性抛售，将股价不断推低。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/09285200fd94481a47f15422c173a41b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/09285200fd94481a47f15422c173a41b.png"/></p>
<p>PTON data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PTON 数据来源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>Look at the chart for Peloton above and you can easily see the broad story outlined in the price movements. Peloton's version of the story is unique to Peloton, but the general theme is the same as it was for, say, SodaStream not too long ago (SodaStream ended up selling itself to <strong>PepsiCo</strong>). The question today, however, is whether or not there is really turnaround potential from here for Peloton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看一下上面 Peloton 的图表，你可以很容易地看出价格波动中概述的故事。Peloton 的故事版本对 Peloton 来说是独特的，但总体主题与不久前的 SodaStream（SodaStream 最终被 <strong>百事公司</strong> 收购）相同。然而，今天的问题是，Peloton 是否真的有扭转潜力。</p>
</div><h2>Peloton is rudderless</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Peloton 没有舵手</h2>
</div><p>The last big push for Peloton was to shift its business model from making connected exercise equipment to selling an exercise subscription service. Subscriptions tend to be fairly high-margin offerings because you create content once and then sell it over and over again. The idea behind this shift, given that subscriptions were a key part of the connected equipment story, was reasonable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton 最后一次重大推动是将其业务模式从制造联网健身设备转变为销售健身订阅服务。订阅服务往往是高毛利的产品，因为你只需创造内容一次，然后一遍又一遍地销售。考虑到订阅是联网设备故事的关键部分，这种转变的想法是合理的。</p>
</div><p>However, it simply didn't work out as well as hoped. In the fiscal third quarter of 2024, the number of paid app subscriptions fell 21% year over year. The number of subscriptions related to the company's exercise equipment was much stronger; it was flat. Still, neither of those numbers represents a particularly good outcome, and the CEO that orchestrated the subscription idea stepped down the same day that fiscal third quarter 2024 earnings were released.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，事实并不如人意。在 2024 财年第三季度，付费应用订阅数量同比下降了 21%。与公司健身设备相关的订阅数量要强得多；保持不变。然而，这两个数字都不代表一个特别好的结果，策划订阅理念的首席执行官在 2024 财年第三季度财报发布当天辞职。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, Peloton has made some important moves since that point, including refinancing debt that was set to mature soon. But that required the company to go from debt with a zero coupon, sold when the Peloton fad was in full swing, to debt with actual costs associated with it. To put a number on that, Peloton paid off $800 million of zero-coupon convertible debt and took on $350 million of convertible debt with a 5.5% interest rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，自那时以来，Peloton 已经做出了一些重要举措，包括重新融资即将到期的债务。但这要求公司从零息债务转向实际带有成本的债务。具体而言，Peloton 偿还了 8 亿美元的零息可转换债务，并发行了 3.5 亿美元的带有 5.5% 利率的可转换债务。</p>
</div><p>While Peloton needed to push out its debt maturities and find a way to reduce overall leverage (the convertible issuance was part of a larger restructuring), going from zero interest costs to 5.5%, even on a smaller balance, will just make it harder for the company to become profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Peloton 需要推迟债务到期日并找到一种方式来减少总体杠杆（可转债发行是一项更大的重组的一部分），但即使在较小的余额上，从零利息成本到 5.5%，这将使公司更难实现盈利。</p>
</div><p>But there's a longer-term problem here that still hasn't been addressed. Given the departure of the CEO, likely because the subscription idea didn't work out, what's Peloton's business model? Until there's a new leader in place, the company is really operating without a plan. There's no way to assess Peloton's turnaround potential if there's no plan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这里仍然存在一个长期问题尚未解决。鉴于首席执行官的离职，很可能是因为订阅理念行不通，Peloton 的商业模式是什么？在有新领导者到位之前，公司实际上是在没有计划的情况下运作。如果没有计划，就无法评估 Peloton 的扭转潜力。</p>
</div><h2>Peloton's next earnings reports could be ugly</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Peloton 接下来的财报可能会很糟糕</h2>
</div><p>Peloton is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Aug. 22. Maybe it will announce a new CEO at that point, maybe not. But the company's financial results are unlikely to be good either way since its big subscription push has fallen flat. And whenever a new CEO comes in, hopefully sooner rather than later, investors need to be prepared for a direction shift that will take time to gain traction. It might even take a little while for a new CEO to come up with a plan, since they'll probably be new to the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton 定于 2024 财年第四季度财报发布日期为 8 月 22 日。也许公司会在那时宣布新的首席执行官，也可能不会。但无论如何，由于其大规模订阅推动效果不佳，公司的财务业绩都不太可能好。而无论新首席执行官何时上任，投资者都需要为需要时间才能获得成效的方向转变做好准备。甚至可能需要一段时间，新首席执行官才能提出一个计划，因为他们可能对公司还很陌生。</p>
</div><p>That likely means more bad news from earnings over the next couple of quarters, at the very least. And it also means there's no way for investors to really tell if there's legitimate turnaround potential that could turn Peloton into a millionaire maker. Sure, if the stock got back to its previous highs the turnaround appeal would be massive. But at this point, most investors should avoid the stock because there's no clear path toward such an outcome today. The risk/reward balance remains tilted in the wrong direction for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这很可能意味着在接下来的几个季度，至少会有更多的财报坏消息。这也意味着投资者无法真正判断 Peloton 是否有合法的扭转潜力，可以让 Peloton 成为百万富翁制造者。当然，如果股价回到先前的高点，扭转吸引力将是巨大的。但目前，大多数投资者应该避开这只股票，因为今天没有明确的路径朝着这样的结果。风险/回报平衡目前仍倾向于错误的方向。</p>
</div>

Peloton 能帮助你成为百万富翁吗？