<p>随着季度接近尾声，投资者可以查看 13-F 申报文件，以确定华尔街最优秀的头脑在未来几个月的计划。美国证券交易委员会（SEC）要求每当个人投资者或基金持有任何股票的重要股权时提交这些申报文件，因此对于像沃伦·巴菲特这样的大玩家来说，这是一项常规申报。</p>
<p>然而，大多数散户投资者可能很难与巴菲特产生共鸣，因为他的现金持有量（超过 2500 亿美元）相当于许多小国家的经济规模。因此，对于购买力较弱、寻求更快投资机会的人来说，其他投资者如迈克尔·伯里（曾预测 2008 年金融危机）在早期财富积累阶段可能发挥更好的作用。</p>
<p>在伯里最近的 13-F 申报文件中，投资者可以找到一些值得关注的投资。他主要减持的是黄金商品投资，具体是 <strong>Sprott Physical Gold Trust NYSEARCA: PHYS</strong>，这可能并不一定意味着对黄金价格持悲观看法，而更可能是在金属最近创历史新高后进行利润回吐。他的买入包括消费者福利支付平台 <strong>Shift4 Payments Inc. NYSE: FOUR</strong>，以及房地产投资 <strong>Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. NYSE: HPP</strong>。</p>
<h2><strong>Sprott Physical Gold Trust 减持：伯里对美元的看好</strong></h2>
<p>像减持 Sprott Physical Gold 这样的黄金投资并不一定代表对该商品的悲观看法；实际上可能是对美元看涨的看法。为什么呢？黄金和石油一样，是以美元计价的，因此预期未来货币更强劲可能直接与伯里的黄金持仓相冲突。</p>
<p>然而，对黄金还有其他看涨因素。高盛分析师预计，如果美联储在下个季度实际降息，金价可能在 2024 年底达到每盎司 2700 美元，这一观点可能会得到通胀回归的支持。</p>
<p>然而，伯里并不是唯一持有这种观点的人，B. Riley Wealth Advisors 也在 2024 年 8 月刚刚清仓了该股。通过削减超过 90% 的持仓，这家财富顾问现在完全退出了 Sprott Physical Gold Trust 股票，其他人也纷纷效仿。</p>
<p>EP Wealth Advisors 也在 2024 年 8 月清仓了他们所有的 Sprott Physical Gold Trust 股票。再加上过去 12 个月该股净机构流出达 7,900 万美元，显示投资者信心下降，所以也许伯里这次也是对的。</p>
<h2><strong>Shift4 Payments 赢得伯里的信任：押注消费活动上升</strong></h2>
<p>如果美联储如芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的 FedWatch 工具所预测的那样，早在 2024 年 9 月就降息，消费活动可能会反弹至之前的水平。这种潜在增长可能会使像 Shift4 Payments 这样的公司受益，该公司促进产品和消费者之间的交易。</p>
<p>再次，伯里在他的选择上并不孤单；华尔街分析师预测该股未来 12 个月的每股收益（EPS）增长高达 29.6%，超过了像 <strong>PayPal Holdings Inc. NASDAQ: PYPL</strong> 这样的竞争对手，后者仅预测未来 12 个月 EPS 增长 11.1%。</p>
<p>当然，这帮助 DA Davidson 的人确定了 Shift4 Payments 的 104 美元目标价，呼吁股价有望比今天的交易价格上涨 30%。面对如此多的看涨证据，甚至让空头逃跑；Shift4 Payments 的空头头寸在过去一个月内下降了超过 5%，显示出看跌情绪的迹象。</p>
<p>即使公司 CEO 也为购买一些公司股票提供了理由，因为 2024 年 5 月的交易显示，他在该公司购买了高达 250 万美元的股票。市场为这支股票支付溢价也一定有充分的理由，因为 Shift4 Payments 现在的市净率（P/B）为 8.1 倍，高于业务部门平均估值 4.2 倍。</p>
<h2><strong>Hudson Pacific Properties：伯里对房地产复苏的大胆押注</strong></h2>
<p>市场上大多数人现在都意识到商业地产的痛苦状态，远程办公和混合工作模式已成为美国大多数科技股的新常态。然而，根据 Hudson Pacific 的投资者介绍，这种情况可能很快会有所转变。</p>
<p>高达 64% 的首席执行官现在相信，到 2026 年工作时间表将恢复到疫情前的出勤比例。此外，截至 2023 年 12 月，LinkedIn 上远程工作的职位招聘数量年均下降 12%，这当然有助于办公空间的租金收入和估值。</p>
<p>另一份显示 Hudson Pacific 主要租户占比的文件将指引投资者朝正确方向。<strong>Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ: GOOGL</strong> 是最大的租户，占到年租金的 10.2%。其次是 <strong>Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ: AMZN</strong>，占 5.5%。<strong>Netflix Inc. NASDAQ: NFLX</strong> 以类似的 5.1% 排名第三。</p>
<p>了解到这些物业的租赁前景乐观，华尔街分析师现在预测未来 12 个月该股每股收益（EPS）增长 55.4%，超过大多数房地产投资信托（REITs）。此外，分析师们得出共识目标价为 7.3 美元/股，呼吁股价有望比今天的交易价格上涨 39.3%。</p>
<p>→ 揭示顶级股票！（来自达尔文）（广告）</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.marketbeat.com/scripts/TriggeredCampaignPixel.ashx/query-UGxhY2VtZW50PU5hdGl2ZURpc3BsYXkmU291cmNlPU5hdGl2ZURpc3BsYXkmVHJpZ2dlcmVkQ2FtcGFpZ25JRD04OTQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.marketbeat.com/scripts/TriggeredCampaignPixel.ashx/query-UGxhY2VtZW50PU5hdGl2ZURpc3BsYXkmU291cmNlPU5hdGl2ZURpc3BsYXkmVHJpZ2dlcmVkQ2FtcGFpZ25JRD04OTQw"/></p>
<h2>您现在是否应该投资 1000 美元购买 Alphabet 股票？</h2>
<p>在考虑购买 Alphabet 股票之前，您可能希望听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街评级最高、表现最佳的研究分析师以及他们推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已确定了五只顶级分析师悄悄告诉客户在更广泛市场注意之前购买的股票...而 Alphabet 不在这份名单上。</p>
<p>尽管 Alphabet 目前在分析师中有 “中等买入” 评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>查看这五只股票</p>

FOUR

<p>迈克尔·伯里最近提交的 13-F 报告揭示了他在 2024 年的热门股票选择。值得注意的是，他出售了 Sprott Physical Gold Trust，这可能表明他对美元持乐观态度，同时投资于 Shift4 Payments 和 Hudson Pacific Properties。分析师预计 Shift4 的每股收益将实现显著增长，这将受到预期的消费活动推动，而商业地产的复苏迹象可能有利于 Hudson Pacific。这些举动突显了伯里的战略定位，投资者们希望在不断变化的经济条件下抓住新兴市场趋势</p>

<p>As the quarter winds down, investors can look at 13-F filings to determine what the best minds on Wall Street are planning for the coming months. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires these filings whenever an individual investor or fund holds a significant enough stake in any given stock, so this is a regular filing for big players like Warren Buffett.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着季度接近尾声，投资者可以查看 13-F 申报文件，以确定华尔街最优秀的头脑在未来几个月的计划。美国证券交易委员会（SEC）要求每当个人投资者或基金持有任何股票的重要股权时提交这些申报文件，因此对于像沃伦·巴菲特这样的大玩家来说，这是一项常规申报。</p>
</div><p>However, most retail investors can relate only so much to Buffett, as his cash holdings (upwards of $250 billion) are the size of many economies in small countries. So, for those with less buying power looking for a quicker investment play, other investors like Michael Burry (who called the 2008 financial crisis) might play a better role when in the early wealth-building stages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，大多数散户投资者可能很难与巴菲特产生共鸣，因为他的现金持有量（超过 2500 亿美元）相当于许多小国家的经济规模。因此，对于购买力较弱、寻求更快投资机会的人来说，其他投资者如迈克尔·伯里（曾预测 2008 年金融危机）在早期财富积累阶段可能发挥更好的作用。</p>
</div><p>Inside Burry’s recent 13-F filings, investors can find a few interesting plays to watch out for. His main selling name was a gold commodity play in <strong>Sprott Physical Gold Trust NYSEARCA: PHYS</strong>, which might not necessarily be a bearish view on gold prices but rather profit-taking after the metal reached an all-time high recently. His buys were found in consumer discretionary payments platform <strong>Shift4 Payments Inc. NYSE: FOUR</strong>, topped with a real estate play in <strong>Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. NYSE: HPP</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伯里最近的 13-F 申报文件中，投资者可以找到一些值得关注的投资。他主要减持的是黄金商品投资，具体是 <strong>Sprott Physical Gold Trust NYSEARCA: PHYS</strong>，这可能并不一定意味着对黄金价格持悲观看法，而更可能是在金属最近创历史新高后进行利润回吐。他的买入包括消费者福利支付平台 <strong>Shift4 Payments Inc. NYSE: FOUR</strong>，以及房地产投资 <strong>Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. NYSE: HPP</strong>。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Sprott Physical Gold Trust Sale: Burry’s Bullish Move on the Dollar</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>Sprott Physical Gold Trust 减持：伯里对美元的看好</strong></h2>
</div><p>Selling out of a gold play like Sprott Physical Gold may not be a bearish view of the commodity; it could actually be a bullish view of the U.S. dollar. Why? Gold, like oil, is quoted in dollars, so expecting a stronger currency ahead could have directly conflicted with Burry's gold holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像减持 Sprott Physical Gold 这样的黄金投资并不一定代表对该商品的悲观看法；实际上可能是对美元看涨的看法。为什么呢？黄金和石油一样，是以美元计价的，因此预期未来货币更强劲可能直接与伯里的黄金持仓相冲突。</p>
</div><p>There are other bull cases for gold, however. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect the price of gold to reach up to $2,700 an ounce by the end of 2024, a view that could be backed by the return of inflation if the Fed actually cuts interest rates by the next quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，对黄金还有其他看涨因素。高盛分析师预计，如果美联储在下个季度实际降息，金价可能在 2024 年底达到每盎司 2700 美元，这一观点可能会得到通胀回归的支持。</p>
</div><p>However, Burry is not alone in this view, as B. Riley Wealth Advisors also sold out of the stock as recently as August 2024. By cutting over 90% of their position in the stock, this wealth advisor is now entirely out of Sprott Physical Gold Trust stock, and others followed suit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，伯里并不是唯一持有这种观点的人，B. Riley Wealth Advisors 也在 2024 年 8 月刚刚清仓了该股。通过削减超过 90% 的持仓，这家财富顾问现在完全退出了 Sprott Physical Gold Trust 股票，其他人也纷纷效仿。</p>
</div><p>EP Wealth Advisors also sold out of their entire Sprott Physical Gold Trust stock in August 2024. This, combined with the $79 million in net institutional outflows from the stock over the past 12 months, shows a decline in investors' confidence, so maybe Burry is right this time as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EP Wealth Advisors 也在 2024 年 8 月清仓了他们所有的 Sprott Physical Gold Trust 股票。再加上过去 12 个月该股净机构流出达 7,900 万美元，显示投资者信心下降，所以也许伯里这次也是对的。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Shift4 Payments Gains Burry’s Confidence: A Bet on Rising Consumer Activity</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>Shift4 Payments 赢得伯里的信任：押注消费活动上升</strong></h2>
</div><p>Should the Fed cut interest rates as early as September 2024, as projected by the CME’s FedWatch tool, consumer activity could rebound to previous levels. This potential increase would likely benefit companies like Shift4 Payments, which facilitates transactions between products and consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美联储如芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的 FedWatch 工具所预测的那样，早在 2024 年 9 月就降息，消费活动可能会反弹至之前的水平。这种潜在增长可能会使像 Shift4 Payments 这样的公司受益，该公司促进产品和消费者之间的交易。</p>
</div><p>Once again, Burry is not alone in his choice; Wall Street analysts forecast up to 29.6% earnings per share (EPS) growth for the next 12 months in the stock, coming above competitors like <strong>PayPal Holdings Inc. NASDAQ: PYPL</strong>, which only have a forecast for 11.1% EPS growth in the next 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再次，伯里在他的选择上并不孤单；华尔街分析师预测该股未来 12 个月的每股收益（EPS）增长高达 29.6%，超过了像 <strong>PayPal Holdings Inc. NASDAQ: PYPL</strong> 这样的竞争对手，后者仅预测未来 12 个月 EPS 增长 11.1%。</p>
</div><p>Of course, this helped those at DA Davidson land on a $104 price target for Shift4 Payments, calling for up to 30% upside from where the stock trades today. Facing this much bullish evidence even sent the bears running; short interest for Shift4 Payments declined by over 5% in the past month to show signs of bearish capitulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，这帮助 DA Davidson 的人确定了 Shift4 Payments 的 104 美元目标价，呼吁股价有望比今天的交易价格上涨 30%。面对如此多的看涨证据，甚至让空头逃跑；Shift4 Payments 的空头头寸在过去一个月内下降了超过 5%，显示出看跌情绪的迹象。</p>
</div><p>Even the CEO justified buying some of his stock, as a May 2024 transaction shows he bought up to $2.5 million in the company. There must also be a good reason for markets to pay a premium for this stock, as Shift4 Payments now trades at a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 8.1x over the business sector’s average valuation of 4.2x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使公司 CEO 也为购买一些公司股票提供了理由，因为 2024 年 5 月的交易显示，他在该公司购买了高达 250 万美元的股票。市场为这支股票支付溢价也一定有充分的理由，因为 Shift4 Payments 现在的市净率（P/B）为 8.1 倍，高于业务部门平均估值 4.2 倍。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Hudson Pacific Properties: Burry’s Bold Bet on a Real Estate Revival</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>Hudson Pacific Properties：伯里对房地产复苏的大胆押注</strong></h2>
</div><p>Most in the market are now aware of the painful state of commercial property, as remote work and hybrid settings are the new norm for most technology stocks in the United States. However, according to Hudson Pacific's investor presentation, that could soon have a new turn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场上大多数人现在都意识到商业地产的痛苦状态，远程办公和混合工作模式已成为美国大多数科技股的新常态。然而，根据 Hudson Pacific 的投资者介绍，这种情况可能很快会有所转变。</p>
</div><p>Up to 64% of CEOs now believe that work schedules will return to pre-pandemic attendance ratios by 2026. Furthermore, as of December 2023, the number of job postings for remote work on LinkedIn declined by 12% annually, which, of course, helps the rental income and valuations of office space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高达 64% 的首席执行官现在相信，到 2026 年工作时间表将恢复到疫情前的出勤比例。此外，截至 2023 年 12 月，LinkedIn 上远程工作的职位招聘数量年均下降 12%，这当然有助于办公空间的租金收入和估值。</p>
</div><p>Another document showing Hudson Pacific's main tenants by share would point investors in the right direction. <strong>Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ: GOOGL</strong> is the largest tenant, representing up to 10.2% of annualized rent. It is followed by <strong>Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ: AMZN</strong>, which takes up 5.5%. <strong>Netflix Inc. NASDAQ: NFLX</strong> takes third place with a similar 5.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一份显示 Hudson Pacific 主要租户占比的文件将指引投资者朝正确方向。<strong>Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ: GOOGL</strong> 是最大的租户，占到年租金的 10.2%。其次是 <strong>Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ: AMZN</strong>，占 5.5%。<strong>Netflix Inc. NASDAQ: NFLX</strong> 以类似的 5.1% 排名第三。</p>
</div><p>Knowing that these properties' rental outlook is upbeat, Wall Street analysts now forecast 55.4% earnings per share (EPS) growth in the next 12 months, beating most real estate investment trusts (REITs). More than that, analysts landed on a consensus price target of $7.3 a share, calling for as much as 39.3% upside from where it trades today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解到这些物业的租赁前景乐观，华尔街分析师现在预测未来 12 个月该股每股收益（EPS）增长 55.4%，超过大多数房地产投资信托（REITs）。此外，分析师们得出共识目标价为 7.3 美元/股，呼吁股价有望比今天的交易价格上涨 39.3%。</p>
</div><p>→ Top Stock Unveiled! (From Darwin)(Ad)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>→ 揭示顶级股票！（来自达尔文）（广告）</p>
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<h2>Should you invest $1,000 in Alphabet right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>您现在是否应该投资 1000 美元购买 Alphabet 股票？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Alphabet, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑购买 Alphabet 股票之前，您可能希望听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Alphabet wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街评级最高、表现最佳的研究分析师以及他们推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已确定了五只顶级分析师悄悄告诉客户在更广泛市场注意之前购买的股票...而 Alphabet 不在这份名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Alphabet currently has a &#34;Moderate Buy&#34; rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Alphabet 目前在分析师中有 “中等买入” 评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

2024 年值得关注的迈克尔·伯里的三大股票选择