<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/peloton-taps-amazon-to-boost-us-sales.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/peloton-taps-amazon-to-boost-us-sales.jpg"/></p>
<p>Peloton Interactive（PTON）股价在高度备受争议的公司发布了适度的业绩，并将重心转向盈利而非过去的增长后，表现强劲。股价上涨并升至重要的$5 阻力点，为自 3 月 14 日以来的最高点。从今年最低点起涨幅超过 71%。</p>
<h2>Peloton 持续扭转局面</h2>
<p>Peloton Interactive 在过去五年经历了一段艰难时期。随着在 Covid 封锁期间对其硬件和软件的需求激增，其股价最初飙升至 2021 年的历史高点$170。在股价最高时，其市值飙升至超过 530 亿美元。</p>
<p>疫情对该公司来说是苦乐参半的，因为其营收飙升至 40 多亿美元。然而，问题在于公司生产了更多的自行车和跑步机，期望需求会永远保持高位。结果，其库存从 2020 年的 2.44 亿美元增至 2022 年的超过 11 亿美元。</p>
<p>为了处理这些库存，Peloton 调整了策略。公司不再仅在内部销售产品，还将其添加到亚马逊等其他主流购物平台上。</p>
<p>这一转变对公司影响不大，因为其年营收从 2021 年的 40 亿美元的峰值下降至 2022 年的 35 亿美元，2023 年的 28 亿美元，以及上一个财年的 27 亿美元。</p>
<p>公司也成为了现金焚烧机，其净亏损在 2022 年达到 28 亿美元的峰值，随后分别缩减至 12 亿美元和 5.51 亿美元。</p>
<h2>最新财报</h2>
<p>Peloton 股价飙升的主要催化剂是其最近的财务业绩，显示公司取得了一些适度进展，尽管起点较低。</p>
<p>会员数量同比下降 2% 至 640 万，订阅者数量下降 1% 至 280 万。付费应用订阅结束下降了 26%。</p>
<p>尽管公司对低流失率感到高兴，但我认为用户趋势并不乐观，因为公司未像以往那样增加会员。此外，我怀疑由于健身行业的一般趋势，流失率将随时间增加。大多数人最初订阅健身解决方案，然后在途中放弃。</p>
<p>业绩显示，公司上一季度总营收为 6.43 亿美元，略高于一年前的 6.42 亿美元。这一营收主要来自其订阅服务，带来了超过 4.31 亿美元的收入，而其联网健身产品下降了 4% 至 2.12 亿美元。</p>
<p>订阅业务的毛利率为 68.2%，这是一个不错的数字，因为像 Netflix 的毛利率为 43.84%，Spotify 为 27.54%，纽约时报为 48%，Zoom Video 为 76%。</p>
<p>高毛利率意味着 Peloton Interactive 未来有扩大利润率的空间。其净亏损从 2.4 亿美元改善至 3040 万美元，公司的自由现金流增至 2600 万美元。</p>
<p>Peloton 预计其付费订阅将增至 298 万，年营收将达到 27 亿美元，调整后的 EBITDA 将为 350 万美元。分析师预计其营收将达到 26.1 亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，我认为改善指标一个季度并不能反映公司的整体情况，因为其业务仍面临挑战。竞争仍然是一个大问题，而其硬件销售在未来增长空间有限。</p>
<p>因此，我认为我们需要更多季度的营收增长和会员增长来证明公司股价的飙升。</p>
<h2>Peloton 股价分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Peloton-stock-1024x568.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Peloton-stock-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p>日线图显示了为什么 PTON 股价在过去几天内飙升，正如我在 7 月预测的那样。公司在 2.83 美元形成了双底模式后跃升。现在已经突破了第一个颈线位 4 美元和第二个颈线位 4.78 美元，即 5 月 14 日的最高点。</p>
<p>Peloton 还突破了 200 日指数移动平均线（EMA），这意味着多头控制局面。因此，短期内，Peloton 可能上涨至下一个关键阻力点 7.23 美元。</p>
<p>然而，从长期来看，Peloton 股价存在下跌风险，因为投资者等待更多关于其业务复苏的明确信息。</p>
<p>本文首发于 Invezz，原文链接：My Peloton stock price forecast was accurate: now what?</p>

PTON

<p>Peloton Interactive（PTON）股票从今年最低点起已经上涨超过 71%，主要是因为公司将重心转向盈利。尽管面临重大挑战和会员数量下降的压力，最近的财务结果显示出轻微的收入增长归因于其订阅服务。未来前景仍然谨慎，硬件销售和竞争对增长造成压力可能存在潜在风险。短期势头看起来积极，股票表现呈现出看涨的模式，但需要长期复苏的明确迹象来证明最近股价的激增</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/peloton-taps-amazon-to-boost-us-sales.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/peloton-taps-amazon-to-boost-us-sales.jpg"/></p>
<p>Peloton Interactive (PTON) stock price is firing on all cylinders after the highly-embattled company published modest results and pivoted towards profitability instead of growth as it did in the past. It made an up-gap and rose to the important resistance point at $5, its highest swing since March 14. It has risen by over 71% from its lowest point this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton Interactive（PTON）股价在高度备受争议的公司发布了适度的业绩，并将重心转向盈利而非过去的增长后，表现强劲。股价上涨并升至重要的$5 阻力点，为自 3 月 14 日以来的最高点。从今年最低点起涨幅超过 71%。</p>
</div><h2>Peloton’s turnaround continues</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Peloton 持续扭转局面</h2>
</div><p>Peloton Interactive has gone through a rough patch in the past five years. Its stock initially surged to a record high of $170 in 2021 as demand for its hardware and software surged during the Covid lockdowns. At its peak, its market cap surged to over $53 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton Interactive 在过去五年经历了一段艰难时期。随着在 Covid 封锁期间对其硬件和软件的需求激增，其股价最初飙升至 2021 年的历史高点$170。在股价最高时，其市值飙升至超过 530 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The pandemic was a bittersweet for the company as its revenue surged to over $4 billion. However, the implication was that the company manufactured more bikes and treadmills expecting that demand would remain high forever. As a result, its inventory rose from $244 million in 2020 to over $1.1 billion in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疫情对该公司来说是苦乐参半的，因为其营收飙升至 40 多亿美元。然而，问题在于公司生产了更多的自行车和跑步机，期望需求会永远保持高位。结果，其库存从 2020 年的 2.44 亿美元增至 2022 年的超过 11 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>To deal with that inventory, Peloton shifted gears and changed its strategy. Instead of selling its products just in-house, it added them in other mainstream shopping platforms like Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了处理这些库存，Peloton 调整了策略。公司不再仅在内部销售产品，还将其添加到亚马逊等其他主流购物平台上。</p>
</div><p>This transition has not had a major impact on the company as its annual revenue dropped from a peak of $4 billion in 2021 to $3.5 billion in 2022, $2.8 billion in 2023, and $2.7 billion in the last financial year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一转变对公司影响不大，因为其年营收从 2021 年的 40 亿美元的峰值下降至 2022 年的 35 亿美元，2023 年的 28 亿美元，以及上一个财年的 27 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>It has also become a cash incinerator, with its net loss peaking at $2.8 billion in 2022. It then narrowed to $1.2 billion and $551 million in the next two financial years, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司也成为了现金焚烧机，其净亏损在 2022 年达到 28 亿美元的峰值，随后分别缩减至 12 亿美元和 5.51 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Latest earnings report</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最新财报</h2>
</div><p>The main catalyst for the Peloton stock price surge was its recent financial results, which showed that the company made some modest progress, albeit from a low base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton 股价飙升的主要催化剂是其最近的财务业绩，显示公司取得了一些适度进展，尽管起点较低。</p>
</div><p>The number of members dropped by 2% YoY to 6.4 million while the number of subscribers fell by 1% to 2.8 million. Ending paid app subscriptions fell by 26%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>会员数量同比下降 2% 至 640 万，订阅者数量下降 1% 至 280 万。付费应用订阅结束下降了 26%。</p>
</div><p>While the company hailed the low churn, I believe that the user trends are not good since the company is not adding members as it did before. Also, I suspect that churn will increase over time because of the general trends in the fitness industry. Ideally, most people subscribe to fitness solutions and then give up along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司对低流失率感到高兴，但我认为用户趋势并不乐观，因为公司未像以往那样增加会员。此外，我怀疑由于健身行业的一般趋势，流失率将随时间增加。大多数人最初订阅健身解决方案，然后在途中放弃。</p>
</div><p>The results showed that its total revenue stood at $643 million in the last quarter, up slightly from the $642 million it made a year earlier. This revenue was mostly because of its subscriptions, which brought in over $431 million while its connected fitness products dropped by 4% to $212 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>业绩显示，公司上一季度总营收为 6.43 亿美元，略高于一年前的 6.42 亿美元。这一营收主要来自其订阅服务，带来了超过 4.31 亿美元的收入，而其联网健身产品下降了 4% 至 2.12 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The subscription business had a gross margin of 68.2%, which is a good one since a company like Netflix has a margin of 43.84% while Spotify has 27.54%. The New York Times has a margin of 48% while Zoom Video has 76%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>订阅业务的毛利率为 68.2%，这是一个不错的数字，因为像 Netflix 的毛利率为 43.84%，Spotify 为 27.54%，纽约时报为 48%，Zoom Video 为 76%。</p>
</div><p>The high gross margin figure means that Peloton Interactive has room to expand its profit margin in the future. Its net loss improved from $240 million to $30.4 million while the company’s free cash flow rose to $26 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高毛利率意味着 Peloton Interactive 未来有扩大利润率的空间。其净亏损从 2.4 亿美元改善至 3040 万美元，公司的自由现金流增至 2600 万美元。</p>
</div><p>Peloton expects that its paid subscriptions will move to 2.98 million while its annual revenue will be $2.7 billion and its adjusted EBITDA will be $3.5 million. Analysts see its revenue coming in at $2.61 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton 预计其付费订阅将增至 298 万，年营收将达到 27 亿美元，调整后的 EBITDA 将为 350 万美元。分析师预计其营收将达到 26.1 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Still, I believe that one quarter of improved metrics does not reflect the company’s bigger picture as its business continues to face challenges. Competition is still a big issue while its hardware sales have little room to grow in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我认为改善指标一个季度并不能反映公司的整体情况，因为其业务仍面临挑战。竞争仍然是一个大问题，而其硬件销售在未来增长空间有限。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, I believe that we need some more quarters of growing revenues and memberships to justify the company’s stock surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我认为我们需要更多季度的营收增长和会员增长来证明公司股价的飙升。</p>
</div><h2>Peloton stock price analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Peloton 股价分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Peloton-stock-1024x568.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Peloton-stock-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p>The daily chart shows why the PTON share price has surged in the past few days, as I predicted in July. Its jump happened after the company formed a double-bottom pattern at $2.83. It has now moved above the first neckline at $4 and the second one at $4.78, its highest point on May 14.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示了为什么 PTON 股价在过去几天内飙升，正如我在 7 月预测的那样。公司在 2.83 美元形成了双底模式后跃升。现在已经突破了第一个颈线位 4 美元和第二个颈线位 4.78 美元，即 5 月 14 日的最高点。</p>
</div><p>Peloton has also jumped above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), meaning that bulls are in control. Therefore, in the short-term, Peloton could rise to the next pivotal resistance point at $7.23.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton 还突破了 200 日指数移动平均线（EMA），这意味着多头控制局面。因此，短期内，Peloton 可能上涨至下一个关键阻力点 7.23 美元。</p>
</div><p>However, in the long-term, there is a risk that the Peloton share price will drop as investors wait for more clarity about its business recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，从长期来看，Peloton 股价存在下跌风险，因为投资者等待更多关于其业务复苏的明确信息。</p>
</div><p>The post My Peloton stock price forecast was accurate: now what? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文首发于 Invezz，原文链接：My Peloton stock price forecast was accurate: now what?</p>
</div>

我对 Peloton 股票价格的预测是准确的：接下来该怎么办？