<p>氢燃料开发商 <strong>普拉格能源</strong>(PLUG 3.77%) 的股票一直是一次坎坷的旅程。但自 2021 年初以来，这次旅程一直在持续走低。当时，股价曾高达每股 70 美元。而今，股价已跌至 3 美元以下。</p>
<p>华尔街一直在错误地预测股价的走势。在 2021 年，就在股价暴跌之前，将近十家公司对该股票给予了买入评级。</p>
<p>自那些高点以来，华尔街的预期已大幅下调，但平均目标价仍保持在每股近 5 美元，是当前股价的 <strong>两倍</strong> 多。分析师们最终可能会说对吗？现在是押注普拉格能源的时候了吗？答案可能会让你感到意外。(纽约证券交易所: GS)</p>
<h2>这就是华尔街无法预测普拉格能源的原因</h2>
<p>华尔街难以准确预测普拉格能源股票走势的最大原因之一是，其现金流拐点可能要等数年，甚至几十年才会到来。<strong>高盛</strong> 分析师特别指出了该公司遥远的现金流预测。根据这些分析师的说法，普拉格能源的股权期限为 25.8 年。这意味着公司预期现金流的加权平均期约为 26 年。需要注意的是，类似期限的债券被视为_非常_长期。</p>
<p>因为华尔街通常使用贴现现金流模型来估值一家公司，他们必须估计然后将预期现金流贴现回现值。现金流越遥远，就越容易受到假设变化的影响。</p>
<p>除非监管政策出现突然变化，氢燃料电池需求可能要到 2030 年至早才会达到最大拐点。正如全球咨询公司麦肯锡最近得出的结论，“全球清洁氢需求预计到 2050 年将大幅增长，但需要基础设施规模扩大和技术进步来满足预期需求。” 这些基础设施缺口需要多年时间来解决。在那之前，普拉格能源可能会花费数十亿美元进行资本支出，尽管经营业务亏损。例如，在过去一年中，该公司每个季度花费 1 亿至 2 亿美元建设新工厂和其他为增长所需的基础设施。然而，在此期间，净亏损总额超过 10 亿美元，超过了公司今天的市值的一半。</p>
<p>这就是为什么多年来华尔街对普拉格能源一直判断错误的原因。分析师们被要求预测遥远的现金流。随着亏损加剧、竞争加剧和利率上升，这些预期现金流被推迟到更遥远的未来，对股价产生了巨大的负面影响。</p>
<h2>普拉格能源股票真的能涨 130% 吗？</h2>
<p>现在有一个重要的问题需要问：这一次会有所不同吗？普拉格能源股票目前的平均一年目标价为 4.91 美元。这比当前股价高出约 130%。但重要的是要知道，预测之间存在很大的差异。例如，一个目标价接近每股 19 美元，而另一些则低至每股 1.52 美元。</p>
<p>普拉格能源股票真的能涨 130% 吗？这令人怀疑。导致公司股价在近年暴跌的所有压力至今仍然存在。事实上，它们可能比以往任何时候都更强大。尽管新的法规和激励措施对氢需求增长更加有利，但很明显，潜在的转变仍需要数十年的时间。要推广清洁氢燃料的经济学和基础设施仍未就位。与此同时，普拉格能源的财务资源持续减少。去年，该公司的审计师发布了一份关于濒临破产的通知，表明如果不采取果断措施，就会面临破产。普拉格能源通过大规模稀释股东来解决这些问题，这是它在最近几个季度继续做的事情。</p>
<p>普拉格能源目前处于一个进退两难的境地。其持续的亏损迫使其不断向债务和股本市场融资。然而，正面现金流仍需数年时间。这限制了其投资于新创新的能力，使竞争对手得以开发更新、更便宜、更高效的解决方案。明智的投资者现在应该暂时观望。</p>

普拉格能源

<p>华尔街一直在错误判断普拉格能源的股票，自 2021 年以来股价一直下跌。导致这种情况的因素包括延迟的现金流预测和持续亏损中的大量资本支出。分析师预测股价可能会上涨 130％，但预测存在较大差异，持续的财务挑战使前景仍然存疑。普拉格能源过度依赖外部融资和负面现金流限制了创新，使投资者保持谨慎。总体而言，普拉格能源面临着重大障碍，可能阻碍其股票价值的潜在上涨</p>

<p>The stock of hydrogen fuel developer <strong>Plug Power</strong>(PLUG 3.77%) has been a bumpy ride. But since the start of 2021, that ride has been consistently lower. Back then, the stock was valued as high as $70 per share. Today, the share price is below $3.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>氢燃料开发商 <strong>普拉格能源</strong>(PLUG 3.77%) 的股票一直是一次坎坷的旅程。但自 2021 年初以来，这次旅程一直在持续走低。当时，股价曾高达每股 70 美元。而今，股价已跌至 3 美元以下。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street has been consistently wrong about where the stock price is headed next. In 2021, right before shares collapsed, nearly a dozen firms had a buy rating on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街一直在错误地预测股价的走势。在 2021 年，就在股价暴跌之前，将近十家公司对该股票给予了买入评级。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street expectations have come down sharply since those highs, but the average price target remains at nearly $5 per share -- more than <em>double</em> the current share price. Could analysts finally be right? Is now the time to bet big on Plug Power? The answer might surprise you. (NYSE: GS)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那些高点以来，华尔街的预期已大幅下调，但平均目标价仍保持在每股近 5 美元，是当前股价的 <strong>两倍</strong> 多。分析师们最终可能会说对吗？现在是押注普拉格能源的时候了吗？答案可能会让你感到意外。(纽约证券交易所: GS)</p>
</div><h2>This is why Wall Street can't predict Plug</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这就是华尔街无法预测普拉格能源的原因</h2>
</div><p>One of the biggest reasons why Wall Street has struggled to accurately predict the direction of Plug Power stock is that its cash flow inflection point could be years, if not decades, into the future. <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> analysts have specifically called the company out for its distant cash flow projections. According to those analysts, Plug Power has an equity duration of 25.8 years. That means that the weighted average of the company's expected cash flows is around 26 years. Take note that a bond of similar duration would be considered <em>very</em> long-term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街难以准确预测普拉格能源股票走势的最大原因之一是，其现金流拐点可能要等数年，甚至几十年才会到来。<strong>高盛</strong> 分析师特别指出了该公司遥远的现金流预测。根据这些分析师的说法，普拉格能源的股权期限为 25.8 年。这意味着公司预期现金流的加权平均期约为 26 年。需要注意的是，类似期限的债券被视为_非常_长期。</p>
</div><p>Because Wall Street often uses a discounted cash flow model to value a company, they must estimate and then discount projected cash flows back to the present. The more distant a cash flow is, the more sensitive it is to changes in assumptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因为华尔街通常使用贴现现金流模型来估值一家公司，他们必须估计然后将预期现金流贴现回现值。现金流越遥远，就越容易受到假设变化的影响。</p>
</div><p>Barring a sudden change in regulatory policy, it's likely that hydrogen fuel cell demand won't reach its biggest inflection point until 2030 at the earliest. As global consultancy McKinsey recently concluded, &#34;Global clean hydrogen demand is projected to grow significantly to 2050, but infrastructure scale-up and technology advancements are needed to meet projected demand.&#34; These infrastructure gaps will take many years to resolve. Until then, Plug Power will likely be spending billions in capital expenditures despite operating a money-losing business. Over the last year, for example, the company has spent between $100 million and $200 million per quarter building new plants and other infrastructure required for growth. Yet over that time period, net losses totaled well over $1 billion -- more than half of the company's entire market cap today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非监管政策出现突然变化，氢燃料电池需求可能要到 2030 年至早才会达到最大拐点。正如全球咨询公司麦肯锡最近得出的结论，“全球清洁氢需求预计到 2050 年将大幅增长，但需要基础设施规模扩大和技术进步来满足预期需求。” 这些基础设施缺口需要多年时间来解决。在那之前，普拉格能源可能会花费数十亿美元进行资本支出，尽管经营业务亏损。例如，在过去一年中，该公司每个季度花费 1 亿至 2 亿美元建设新工厂和其他为增长所需的基础设施。然而，在此期间，净亏损总额超过 10 亿美元，超过了公司今天的市值的一半。</p>
</div><p>This all adds up to why Wall Street has been so wrong about Plug Power over the years. Analysts were required to project cash flows that were far into the future. With mounting losses, increased competition, and higher interest rates, these projected cash flows have been pushed out even further into the future, having an outsized negative effect on the share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么多年来华尔街对普拉格能源一直判断错误的原因。分析师们被要求预测遥远的现金流。随着亏损加剧、竞争加剧和利率上升，这些预期现金流被推迟到更遥远的未来，对股价产生了巨大的负面影响。</p>
</div><h2>Can Plug Power stock really rise by 130%?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>普拉格能源股票真的能涨 130% 吗？</h2>
</div><p>There's one important question to ask right now: Is this time different? The average one-year price target for Plug Power stock right now is $4.91. That's around 130% higher than the current stock price. But it's important to know that there's a huge variance between predictions. One price target, for instance, is nearly $19 per share, while others are as low as $1.52 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在有一个重要的问题需要问：这一次会有所不同吗？普拉格能源股票目前的平均一年目标价为 4.91 美元。这比当前股价高出约 130%。但重要的是要知道，预测之间存在很大的差异。例如，一个目标价接近每股 19 美元，而另一些则低至每股 1.52 美元。</p>
</div><p>Can Plug Power stock actually rise by 130%? It's doubtful. All of the pressures that led to the company's share price collapse in recent years persist to this day. In fact, they may be stronger than ever before. While new regulations and incentives are growing more accommodating for hydrogen demand growth, it's clear that a potential transition would still take decades. The economics and infrastructure to scale clear hydrogen fuel simply aren't in place yet. Meanwhile, Plug Power's financial resources continue to dwindle. Last year, the company's auditors issued a going concern notice, indicating that insolvency was imminent if drastic measures weren't taken. Plug Power addressed those concerns by massively diluting shareholders, something it continued to do in recent quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>普拉格能源股票真的能涨 130% 吗？这令人怀疑。导致公司股价在近年暴跌的所有压力至今仍然存在。事实上，它们可能比以往任何时候都更强大。尽管新的法规和激励措施对氢需求增长更加有利，但很明显，潜在的转变仍需要数十年的时间。要推广清洁氢燃料的经济学和基础设施仍未就位。与此同时，普拉格能源的财务资源持续减少。去年，该公司的审计师发布了一份关于濒临破产的通知，表明如果不采取果断措施，就会面临破产。普拉格能源通过大规模稀释股东来解决这些问题，这是它在最近几个季度继续做的事情。</p>
</div><p>Plug Power is simply between a rock and a hard place right now. Its persistent losses force it to continually tap the debt and equity markets. Yet positive cash flows remain many years away. This limits its ability to invest in new innovation, allowing competitors to develop newer, cheaper, more efficient solutions. Wise investors should stick to the sidelines for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>普拉格能源目前处于一个进退两难的境地。其持续的亏损迫使其不断向债务和股本市场融资。然而，正面现金流仍需数年时间。这限制了其投资于新创新的能力，使竞争对手得以开发更新、更便宜、更高效的解决方案。明智的投资者现在应该暂时观望。</p>
</div>

华尔街对普拉格能源的判断出错了。以下是原因