<p>芯片制造商英伟达（Nvidia）的股价从 7 月底和 8 月初的回调中恢复得不错。截至目前，股价已从本月初低于 100 美元的水平上涨到约 124 美元。这相当于在很短的时间内上涨了 25%。随着变化如此迅速，购买低点或者在今年早些时候持有股票的投资者可能在考虑是否应该获利了结。</p>
<p>在这个水平出售股票的决定并不容易。这家公司主要生产用于深度学习和人工智能（AI）热潮的图形处理单元（GPU），目前市盈率为 74 倍，处于较高的溢价水平。但英伟达的基本业务基本面令人难以置信；公司最近一个季度的营收同比飙升 262%，每股收益同比激增 629%。</p>
<p>以下是对该股牛市和熊市情况的更详细分析，以帮助投资者自行决定应该采取何种行动。</p>
<h2>牛市观点</h2>
<p>看好该股的投资者迅速指出，公司令人印象深刻的营收增长可能会持续一段时间。牛市观点认为，这一点得到了证实，因为公司旗舰产品 H200 和 Blackwell 芯片的需求仍然超过供应。英伟达首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯甚至在公司最近的财报电话会议中指出，公司预计对这些产品的需求将 “持续到明年”。</p>
<p>此外，英伟达的看好者可能会指出公司对 2025 财年第二季度的营收指导，以展示增长正在持续。管理层预测 2025 财年第二季度的营收将达到 280 亿美元，这一数字相当于营收翻番，可能甚至更快的每股收益增长。这样的势头可能有助于迅速降低英伟达高的市盈率（P/E）比率。</p>
<h2>熊市观点</h2>
<p>英伟达股票的熊市观点的基础是市场是前瞻性的，特别是在处理高溢价估值的股票时。这意味着如果华尔街开始看到潜在的未来营收增长率或盈利恶化的迹象，它可能会严厉惩罚英伟达股票。因此，即使是在一次财报电话会议中，管理层对英伟达关键产品的供需接近平衡发表简短评论，也可能会使投资者感到恐慌，导致他们不再相信该股票应该获得目前所享有的高估值。</p>
<p>此外，目前看似是英伟达优势的地方——高利润率——也是使其脆弱的因素。例如，2025 财年第一季度公司的毛利率从去年同期的 66.8% 大幅扩张至 78.9%。然而，较高的毛利率意味着未来可能会发生正常化，因为需求赶上供应，竞争对手在制造竞争产品方面做得更好。</p>
<p>在这样的环境中，英伟达可能不得不降低产品价格，其利润率可能会受到打击。这可能导致不仅盈利放缓，甚至可能出现下滑。</p>
<p>英伟达的利润率和盈利增长面临的阻力（如果真的出现）可能还有一年多的时间。但前瞻性市场可能随时开始对这些风险进行定价。</p>
<p>总的来说，英伟达看起来是一家很棒的公司，但在目前的价格下是一只风险较高的股票。出售股票并购买更具吸引力的东西可能是明智之举。</p>

英伟达

<p>NVIDIA 的股票已经反弹，涨幅达到 25%，引发投资者讨论是否应该套现。尽管 NVIDIA 拥有强劲的基本面，包括 262% 的营收增长和 629% 的每股收益增长，但其高达 74 倍的交易倍数引发了警惕。乐观者强调芯片的持续需求，但怀疑者警告称，任何增长放缓都可能危及估值。高利润率可能会趋于正常化，从而面临未来盈利下滑的风险。总体而言，虽然 NVIDIA 是一家稳健的公司，但其当前股价存在投资风险</p>

<p>Chipmaker <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 4.55%) has seen its stock recover nicely from a pullback in late July and early August. Shares have gone from trading at levels below $100 earlier this month to around $124, as of this writing. That's approximately a 25% gain in a very short period. With so much change so fast, investors who bought the dip or who have been holding from much lower levels earlier this year may be debating whether it might make sense to take their profits and move on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>芯片制造商英伟达（Nvidia）的股价从 7 月底和 8 月初的回调中恢复得不错。截至目前，股价已从本月初低于 100 美元的水平上涨到约 124 美元。这相当于在很短的时间内上涨了 25%。随着变化如此迅速，购买低点或者在今年早些时候持有股票的投资者可能在考虑是否应该获利了结。</p>
</div><p>The decision about whether the stock should be sold at this level is not an easy one. The company, which creates graphic processing units (GPUs) powering the deep learning and artificial intelligence (AI) craze, trades at 74 times earnings -- a high premium. But Nvidia's underlying business fundamentals are incredible; revenue in the company's most recent quarter soared 262% year over year, and earnings per share skyrocketed 629% over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这个水平出售股票的决定并不容易。这家公司主要生产用于深度学习和人工智能（AI）热潮的图形处理单元（GPU），目前市盈率为 74 倍，处于较高的溢价水平。但英伟达的基本业务基本面令人难以置信；公司最近一个季度的营收同比飙升 262%，每股收益同比激增 629%。</p>
</div><p>Here's a closer look at both the bull and bear cases for the stock to help investors decide for themselves what they should do.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是对该股牛市和熊市情况的更详细分析，以帮助投资者自行决定应该采取何种行动。</p>
</div><h2>The bull case</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>牛市观点</h2>
</div><p>Investors bullish on the stock quickly point out that the company's impressive top-line growth is likely to persist for some time. This, bulls say, is evidenced by the fact that demand for the company's flagship H200 and Blackwell chips remains ahead of supply. Nvidia chief financial officer Colette Kress even noted in the company's most recent earnings call that the company expects demand for these products to &#34;exceed supply well into next year.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看好该股的投资者迅速指出，公司令人印象深刻的营收增长可能会持续一段时间。牛市观点认为，这一点得到了证实，因为公司旗舰产品 H200 和 Blackwell 芯片的需求仍然超过供应。英伟达首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯甚至在公司最近的财报电话会议中指出，公司预计对这些产品的需求将 “持续到明年”。</p>
</div><p>Further, Nvidia bulls might point to the company's revenue guidance for its fiscal second quarter of 2025 to show how growth is continuing. Management forecast fiscal second-quarter revenue of $28 billion, a figure translating to more than a doubling of revenue and likely even faster earnings-per-share growth. Momentum like this will likely help quickly bring down Nvidia's high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，英伟达的看好者可能会指出公司对 2025 财年第二季度的营收指导，以展示增长正在持续。管理层预测 2025 财年第二季度的营收将达到 280 亿美元，这一数字相当于营收翻番，可能甚至更快的每股收益增长。这样的势头可能有助于迅速降低英伟达高的市盈率（P/E）比率。</p>
</div><h2>The bear case</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>熊市观点</h2>
</div><p>Fundamental to the bear case for Nvidia stock is the fact that the market is forward looking -- particularly when dealing with stocks trading at high premium valuations. This means that Wall Street may severely punish Nvidia shares if it starts seeing evidence of potential future deterioration of revenue growth rates or earnings. A simple comment from management during an earnings call about demand and supply for Nvidia's key products getting closer to equilibrium, therefore, could spook investors and cause them to no longer believe the stock deserves a valuation multiple as high as it currently commands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达股票的熊市观点的基础是市场是前瞻性的，特别是在处理高溢价估值的股票时。这意味着如果华尔街开始看到潜在的未来营收增长率或盈利恶化的迹象，它可能会严厉惩罚英伟达股票。因此，即使是在一次财报电话会议中，管理层对英伟达关键产品的供需接近平衡发表简短评论，也可能会使投资者感到恐慌，导致他们不再相信该股票应该获得目前所享有的高估值。</p>
</div><p>Further, what appears to be Nvidia's strength today -- its high profit margin -- is the same factor that makes it vulnerable. For instance, the company's gross margin in the first quarter of fiscal 2025 impressively expanded from 66.8% in the year-ago quarter to 78.9%. However, a higher-than-usual gross margin means normalization could occur in the future as demand catches up to supply and as competitors do a better job making competing products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，目前看似是英伟达优势的地方——高利润率——也是使其脆弱的因素。例如，2025 财年第一季度公司的毛利率从去年同期的 66.8% 大幅扩张至 78.9%。然而，较高的毛利率意味着未来可能会发生正常化，因为需求赶上供应，竞争对手在制造竞争产品方面做得更好。</p>
</div><p>In an environment like this, Nvidia may have to lower the price of its products, and its margins could take a hit. This could lead to not only a slowdown in earnings but possibly even a decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这样的环境中，英伟达可能不得不降低产品价格，其利润率可能会受到打击。这可能导致不仅盈利放缓，甚至可能出现下滑。</p>
</div><p>Headwinds to Nvidia's margins and earnings growth (if they ever materialize) could be more than a year away. But a forward-looking market could start pricing in these risks any moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的利润率和盈利增长面临的阻力（如果真的出现）可能还有一年多的时间。但前瞻性市场可能随时开始对这些风险进行定价。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Nvidia seems like a great company, but a risky stock at this price. Selling shares and buying something more attractive may make sense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，英伟达看起来是一家很棒的公司，但在目前的价格下是一只风险较高的股票。出售股票并购买更具吸引力的东西可能是明智之举。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock: Time to Sell?

- Nvidia 股价从 7 月底和 8 月初的回调中恢复良好，从本月初低于 100 美元的水平上涨到约 124 美元，涨幅约 25%。
- 投资者或许在考虑是否应该在这一水平获利退出，因为公司的市盈率高达 74 倍，但业务基本面强劲。
- Nvidia 的收入在最近一个季度同比激增 262%，每股收益同比飙升 629%，但市场前瞻性强，对未来收入增长率或盈利的潜在下滑可能会严惩 Nvidia 股票。


英伟达股票：现在是卖出的好时机吗？