<p><strong>卡夫亨氏</strong>（KHC 1.10%）自从九年前由卡夫和亨氏合并而成以来一直是令人失望的投资。合并后的公司股价于 2015 年 7 月 6 日开盘价为 48.55 美元，但现在交易价格略低于 36 美元。</p>
<p>卡夫亨氏最初被认为是一家稳定的蓝筹消费类股票，但在 2019 年以 150 亿美元计提其顶级品牌减值、削减股息以及披露与其会计实践相关的 SEC 调查后，震动了投资者。其当时的首席执行官伯纳多·伊斯在做出这些公告几个月后辞职。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgwMDUvYm93bC1vZi1tYWNhcm9uaS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgwMDUvYm93bC1vZi1tYWNhcm9uaS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>伊斯的继任者米格尔·帕特里西奥引导公司度过挑战，直到去年辞职并将掌舵交给卡洛斯·阿布拉姆斯 - 里韦拉。在这两位首席执行官的领导下，卡夫亨氏的股价稳定并上涨约 14%。尽管仍远低于首次上市价格，但我认为出于五个简单原因，值得购买。</p>
<h2>1. 卡夫亨氏克服了以往的问题</h2>
<p>帕特里西奥接任时，卡夫亨氏的许多品牌陷入困境。消费者开始偏爱更健康的食品，大型连锁超市也逐渐成为拥有自有品牌的强大竞争对手。卡夫亨氏的管理层过于专注于削减成本和回购股份以提高每股收益（EPS），而非简化其产品组合、更新产品，并推出新的营销活动以抵御这些威胁。</p>
<p>但在帕特里西奥的领导下，卡夫亨氏剥离了较弱的品牌以筹集现金，收购了增长更快的品牌，并通过推出新产品和营销活动为经典品牌注入新活力。这些策略使其在 2020 年和 2021 年有望实现增长，因为新冠疫情驱使更多人囤积包装食品。它还通过逐渐提高价格来抵消 2022 年和 2023 年的通货膨胀压力。</p>
<h2>2. 其营收增长已稳定</h2>
<p>在过去五年中，卡夫亨氏的净销售增长（包括剥离、收购和货币波动）波动较大。然而，在过去四年中，随着其重新组织品牌组合，其有机销售保持为正。</p>
<p>指标 |</p>
<p>2019 年 |</p>
<p>2020 年 |</p>
<p>2021 年 |</p>
<p>2022 年 |</p>
<p>2023 年 |
|</p>
<p>有机销售增长 |</p>
<p>预计今年其有机销售将下降 0% 至 2%，因为在其国际发达市场中提价空间有限。这种压力抵消了其在北美和国际新兴市场成功提价的成果。</p>
<p>这种放缓可能看起来像一个警示信号，但随着通货膨胀最终消退，其增长应会再次加速。它还一直在扩大其面向外出用餐市场的产品范围，为餐厅和企业推出新产品，更新旧品牌，并考虑剥离奥斯卡·梅耶以进一步简化其有机增长。目前，分析师预计其净销售将从 2023 年到 2026 年以 1% 的缓慢但稳定的复合年增长率增长。</p>
<h2>3. 卡夫亨氏的毛利率和营运利润率正在上升</h2>
<p>卡夫亨氏的毛利率和营运利润率在 2022 年受通货膨胀的影响而受到挤压，但这两个指标在过去 18 个月中显著扩大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8a7d65ce4eb3ba1aea79d634e3a0471e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8a7d65ce4eb3ba1aea79d634e3a0471e.png"/></p>
<p>来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>公司预计，2024 年其调整后毛利率将扩大 75 至 125 个基点，其调整后营运利润率将提高 1 至 3 个百分点。它还预计其调整后每股收益将增长 1% 至 3%，达到 3.01 至 3.07 美元。分析师预计其报告的每股收益将从 2023 年到 2026 年以 13% 的复合年增长率增加。</p>
<h2>4. 卡夫亨氏估值低，股息率高</h2>
<p>以 35 美元的价格，卡夫亨氏股票交易仅为今年盈利中点的 12 倍。相比之下，其行业同行 <strong>通用磨坊</strong> 和 <strong>蒙德利兹</strong> 的前瞻性盈利分别为 16 倍和 21 倍。最近同意被马氏收购的 <strong>凯拉诺娃</strong> 的前瞻性盈利为 22 倍。这种低估值，加上其高达 4.5% 的前瞻性股息率，应该限制卡夫亨氏的下行潜力。</p>
<h2>5. 沃伦·巴菲特仍持有该股</h2>
<p>最后但并非最不重要的是，沃伦·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希尔 - 哈撒韦</strong> -- 与卡夫合并亨氏的合作方 -- 仍持有公司已发行股份的 26.9%。这一价值 115 亿美元的股份占伯克希尔投资组合的 3.7%，并未在最近出售几家知名公司股票时减持或清仓。</p>
<p>巴菲特决定继续持有卡夫亨氏表明其业务并未走下坡路。它肯定不会立即起飞，但应该是一个不错的地方来安置您的资金，并在宏观风险消退之前收取一些可观的股息。因此，如果您正在寻找一个作为避风港投资的优质蓝筹股，卡夫亨氏符合许多正确选择的条件。</p>

卡夫亨氏

<p>卡夫亨氏（KHC）股票自 2015 年合并以来面临挑战，包括重大减记和领导层变动。然而，在新管理团队的领导下，该公司改善了其品牌组合，并实现了正面的有机销售增长。投资的关键原因包括稳定的营收增长、增长的利润率、低估值（市盈率为 12 倍）以及高达 4.5% 的股息收益率。此外，沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司持有该公司的重要股份，进一步证实了其复苏和增长潜力</p>

<p><strong>Kraft Heinz</strong>(KHC 1.10%) has been a disappointing investment ever since it was created from the merger between Kraft and Heinz nine years ago. The combined company's shares opened at $48.55 on July 6, 2015, but they now trade just below $36.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>卡夫亨氏</strong>（KHC 1.10%）自从九年前由卡夫和亨氏合并而成以来一直是令人失望的投资。合并后的公司股价于 2015 年 7 月 6 日开盘价为 48.55 美元，但现在交易价格略低于 36 美元。</p>
</div><p>Kraft Heinz was initially considered a stable blue chip consumer staples stock, but it rattled its investors in 2019 with a $15 billion writedown on its top brands, a dividend cut, and the disclosure of an SEC probe related to its accounting practices. Its then-CEO Bernardo Hees stepped down a few months after making those announcements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡夫亨氏最初被认为是一家稳定的蓝筹消费类股票，但在 2019 年以 150 亿美元计提其顶级品牌减值、削减股息以及披露与其会计实践相关的 SEC 调查后，震动了投资者。其当时的首席执行官伯纳多·伊斯在做出这些公告几个月后辞职。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgwMDUvYm93bC1vZi1tYWNhcm9uaS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F788005%2Fbowl-of-macaroni.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Hees' successor, Miguel Patricio, guided the company through challenges until he stepped down and handed the reins over to Carlos Abrams-Rivera last year. Under those two CEOs, Kraft Heinz's stock has stabilized and risen about 14%. It's still well below its debut price, but I believe it's worth buying for five simple reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊斯的继任者米格尔·帕特里西奥引导公司度过挑战，直到去年辞职并将掌舵交给卡洛斯·阿布拉姆斯 - 里韦拉。在这两位首席执行官的领导下，卡夫亨氏的股价稳定并上涨约 14%。尽管仍远低于首次上市价格，但我认为出于五个简单原因，值得购买。</p>
</div><h2>1. Kraft Heinz overcame its previous problems</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 卡夫亨氏克服了以往的问题</h2>
</div><p>Many of Kraft Heinz's brands were struggling when Patricio took the helm. Consumers were gravitating toward healthier foods, and big grocery chains were evolving into tough competitors with their own private-label brands. Instead of streamlining its portfolio, refreshing its products, and launching new marketing campaigns to fend off those threats, Kraft Heinz's management focused too much on cutting costs and buying back its shares to boost its earnings per share (EPS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>帕特里西奥接任时，卡夫亨氏的许多品牌陷入困境。消费者开始偏爱更健康的食品，大型连锁超市也逐渐成为拥有自有品牌的强大竞争对手。卡夫亨氏的管理层过于专注于削减成本和回购股份以提高每股收益（EPS），而非简化其产品组合、更新产品，并推出新的营销活动以抵御这些威胁。</p>
</div><p>But under Patricio, Kraft Heinz divested its weaker brands to raise cash, acquired higher-growth brands, and refreshed its classic brands with new products and marketing campaigns. Those strategies put it in a good position to grow in 2020 and 2021 as the COVID-19 pandemic drove more people to stock up on packaged foods. It also countered the inflationary headwinds in 2022 and 2023 by gradually raising its prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在帕特里西奥的领导下，卡夫亨氏剥离了较弱的品牌以筹集现金，收购了增长更快的品牌，并通过推出新产品和营销活动为经典品牌注入新活力。这些策略使其在 2020 年和 2021 年有望实现增长，因为新冠疫情驱使更多人囤积包装食品。它还通过逐渐提高价格来抵消 2022 年和 2023 年的通货膨胀压力。</p>
</div><h2>2. Its top-line growth has stabilized</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 其营收增长已稳定</h2>
</div><p>Kraft Heinz's net sales growth -- which includes its divestments, acquisitions, and currency fluctuations -- was lumpy over the past five years. However, its organic sales stayed positive over the past four years as it reorganized its brand portfolio.</p>
<p>|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年中，卡夫亨氏的净销售增长（包括剥离、收购和货币波动）波动较大。然而，在过去四年中，随着其重新组织品牌组合，其有机销售保持为正。</p>
</div><p>Metric |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>指标 |</p>
</div><p>2019 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2019 年 |</p>
</div><p>2020 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2020 年 |</p>
</div><p>2021 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2021 年 |</p>
</div><p>2022 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2022 年 |</p>
</div><p>2023 |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年 |
|</p>
</div><p>Organic sales growth |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有机销售增长 |</p>
</div><p>(1.7%) |</p>
<p>6.5% |</p>
<p>1.8% |</p>
<p>9.8% |</p>
<p>3.4% |
|</p>
<p>Net sales growth |</p>
<p>(4.9%) |</p>
<p>4.8% |</p>
<p>(0.5%) |</p>
<p>1.7% |</p>
<p>0.6% |</p>
<p>Data source: Kraft Heinz.</p>
<p>It expects its organic sales to dip 0% to 2% this year as it runs out of room to raise its prices in its international developed markets. That pressure is offsetting its successful price hikes in North America and its international emerging markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计今年其有机销售将下降 0% 至 2%，因为在其国际发达市场中提价空间有限。这种压力抵消了其在北美和国际新兴市场成功提价的成果。</p>
</div><p>That slowdown might seem like a red flag, but its growth should accelerate again as inflation finally subsides. It's also been expanding its away-from-home segment with new products for restaurants and businesses, refreshing its older brands with new products, and mulling a divestment of Oscar Mayer to further streamline its organic growth. For now, analysts expect its net sales to grow at a slow but steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1% from 2023 to 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种放缓可能看起来像一个警示信号，但随着通货膨胀最终消退，其增长应会再次加速。它还一直在扩大其面向外出用餐市场的产品范围，为餐厅和企业推出新产品，更新旧品牌，并考虑剥离奥斯卡·梅耶以进一步简化其有机增长。目前，分析师预计其净销售将从 2023 年到 2026 年以 1% 的缓慢但稳定的复合年增长率增长。</p>
</div><h2>3. Kraft Heinz's gross and operating margins are rising</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 卡夫亨氏的毛利率和营运利润率正在上升</h2>
</div><p>Kraft Heinz's gross and operating margins were both compressed by inflation in 2022, but both metrics have expanded significantly over the past 18 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡夫亨氏的毛利率和营运利润率在 2022 年受通货膨胀的影响而受到挤压，但这两个指标在过去 18 个月中显著扩大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8a7d65ce4eb3ba1aea79d634e3a0471e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8a7d65ce4eb3ba1aea79d634e3a0471e.png"/></p>
<p>Source: YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>For 2024, the company expects its adjusted gross margin to expand 75 to 125 basis points, and for its adjusted operating margin to rise by one to three percentage points. It also expects its adjusted EPS to grow 1% to 3% to $3.01 to $3.07 per share. Analysts expect its reported EPS to increase at a CAGR of 13% from 2023 to 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司预计，2024 年其调整后毛利率将扩大 75 至 125 个基点，其调整后营运利润率将提高 1 至 3 个百分点。它还预计其调整后每股收益将增长 1% 至 3%，达到 3.01 至 3.07 美元。分析师预计其报告的每股收益将从 2023 年到 2026 年以 13% 的复合年增长率增加。</p>
</div><h2>4. Kraft Heinz has a low valuation and a high dividend yield</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 卡夫亨氏估值低，股息率高</h2>
</div><p>At $35, Kraft Heinz stock trades at just 12 times the midpoint of this year's earnings. In comparison, its industry peers <strong>General Mills</strong> and <strong>Mondelez</strong> trade at 16 and 21 times forward earnings, respectively. <strong>Kellanova</strong>, which recently agreed to be acquired by Mars, trades at 22 times forward earnings. That low valuation, along with its high forward dividend yield of 4.5%, should limit Kraft Heinz's downside potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 35 美元的价格，卡夫亨氏股票交易仅为今年盈利中点的 12 倍。相比之下，其行业同行 <strong>通用磨坊</strong> 和 <strong>蒙德利兹</strong> 的前瞻性盈利分别为 16 倍和 21 倍。最近同意被马氏收购的 <strong>凯拉诺娃</strong> 的前瞻性盈利为 22 倍。这种低估值，加上其高达 4.5% 的前瞻性股息率，应该限制卡夫亨氏的下行潜力。</p>
</div><h2>5. Warren Buffett still owns this stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. 沃伦·巴菲特仍持有该股</h2>
</div><p>Last but not least, Warren Buffett's <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> -- which co-orchestrated Kraft's merger with Heinz -- continues to hold 26.9% of the company's outstanding shares. That $11.5 billion stake accounts for 3.7% of Berkshire's portfolio, and it wasn't trimmed or liquidated in its recent sales of several high-profile stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后但并非最不重要的是，沃伦·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希尔 - 哈撒韦</strong> -- 与卡夫合并亨氏的合作方 -- 仍持有公司已发行股份的 26.9%。这一价值 115 亿美元的股份占伯克希尔投资组合的 3.7%，并未在最近出售几家知名公司股票时减持或清仓。</p>
</div><p>Buffett's decision to stick with Kraft Heinz suggests its business isn't headed off a cliff. It certainly won't blast off anytime soon, but it should be a good place to park your cash and collect some decent dividends until the macro headwinds subside. So if you're looking for a good blue chip stock to buy as a safe haven play right now, Kraft Heinz checks a lot of the right boxes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特决定继续持有卡夫亨氏表明其业务并未走下坡路。它肯定不会立即起飞，但应该是一个不错的地方来安置您的资金，并在宏观风险消退之前收取一些可观的股息。因此，如果您正在寻找一个作为避风港投资的优质蓝筹股，卡夫亨氏符合许多正确选择的条件。</p>
</div>

5 个理由让你毫不犹豫地购买卡夫亨氏股票