<p>墨式烧烤（CMG 0.49%）刚刚经历了一场大洗牌。长期担任首席执行官（CEO）的 Brian Niccol 刚刚宣布意外离职加入星巴克。自 2018 年加入以来，Niccol 在 Chipotle 实现了一次重大转变，使股价上涨了 800%，成为世界上表现最好的股票之一。</p>
<p>离开一家公司，尤其是去竞争对手，总会让投资者感到不安。因此，看到 Chipotle 股票在这一消息公布后下跌并不奇怪。事实上，自 6 月份最近的股票分拆以来，股价已经下跌了 25%。这并不是 Chipotle 近 10 年来最糟糕的回落，但却是其中一个最显著的。以下是我对 Brian Niccol 时代接下来可能发生的预测。</p>
<h2>令人惊讶的 CEO 离职</h2>
<p>8 月 13 日，星巴克宣布立即任命 Brian Niccol 为其首席执行官，这令人震惊。有两个原因让人大吃一惊。首先，星巴克此前并未告知投资者他们正在寻找新的首席执行官。其次，在公布此消息时，Chipotle 的估值与星巴克相似，市值范围在 750 亿至 1000 亿美元之间。与咖啡巨头相比，Chipotle 有更清晰的门店扩张路径，并在过去几年表现比咖啡巨头更出色。</p>
<p>那么，Niccol 为什么会离开去星巴克呢？我们可能永远不会知道真实细节，但看起来 Niccol 可能认为 Chipotle 现在处于一个很好的位置，正在寻找他的下一个重大项目。自 2018 年加入 Chipotle 以来，他在餐厅遭遇可怕的食源性疾病爆发后，纠正了局面。</p>
<p>自他接管以来，该股票为投资者带来了超过 800% 的回报，超过了同一时期星巴克的回报。Niccol 可能看到了改进星巴克业务的更多方式，并对他建立的文化感到满意。或者，这可能只是为了金钱。</p>
<p>无论如何，这不应被视为对 Chipotle 业务的打击。事实上，相反。自 Niccol 接管以来，Chipotle 的业务在过去几年中蓬勃发展，自 Niccol 接管以来，每年都实现了正增长，甚至在 COVID-19 大流行期间也是如此。这就是为什么该股票的市盈率（P/E）超过 50。投资者对 Chipotle 的未来充满乐观。</p>
<h2>新 CEO 的聘任是一项重要决定</h2>
<p>新 CEO 的聘任将是 Chipotle 投资者的重要时刻。管理变动总是伴随着不确定性，尤其是对于像餐厅这样的敏感运营。新领导者不会像 2018 年的 Niccol 那样处境艰难，因为 Chipotle 的业务目前正处于全面发展之中，而 Niccol 则不得不在食物中毒事件后重建品牌。事实上，最大的风险是新 CEO 改变 Chipotle 的战略并使情况变得更糟。你可能会说要毁掉它的墨西哥卷饼和碗的配方是不可能的，但你会惊讶于管理层多么经常会损害一家曾经受人喜爱的企业。</p>
<p>我们以前看到过很多次。星巴克在过去多次在长期首席执行官 Howard Schultz 离开公司时陷入困境。即使在餐饮行业之外，迪士尼也经历过一段时间内管理层不一致，这损害了运营。新 CEO 没有保证会打破 Chipotle 的势头。但也没有保证他们会成功。与 Niccol 不同，投资者对他是一位强大的领导者有很高的确定性，今天存在不确定性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b1f2a98421bc263a483411374cc1bd83.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b1f2a98421bc263a483411374cc1bd83.png"/></p>
<p>CMG 营收（TTM）数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>股票的下一步是什么？</h2>
<p>Chipotle 和其新 CEO 有三种可能的结果。要么他们改善，保持，或损害 Chipotle 的餐厅运营。考虑到 Brian Niccol 可能是整个餐饮行业最好的领导者，我对新 CEO 能够从这里有意义地改善 Chipotle 的业务表示怀疑。它可以继续增加运营的餐厅数量（上季末为 3,530 家），但在优化餐厅业务方面，公司已经耗尽了在黄金地段开设新餐厅的可能性。这归根结底是一个简单的模式。</p>
<p>因此，Chipotle 将在新 CEO 的领导下保持其出色表现或变得更糟。然而，即使 Chipotle 保持其卓越表现，我认为投资者应对该股保持谨慎。它的市盈率为 53，是标准普尔 500 指数平均水平的两倍左右。</p>
<p>假设销售额和净利润在未来五年增长 100%（过去五年增长速度相同），很难争辩说这支股票值得拥有。假设利润率保持稳定，这只会将 Chipotle 的市盈率降至 26.5，这在未来五年的基础上并不便宜。</p>
<p>综合考虑，Chipotle 股票似乎正在定价大量增长和对未来几年的高期望，无论新 CEO 是谁。尽管其过去表现强劲，但这表明投资者应远离购买 Chipotle 股票。暂时将其列入观察名单。</p>

墨式烧烤

<p>Chipotle 的股价在首席执行官 Brian Niccol 意外离职并加盟星巴克后下跌了 25%。自 2018 年以来，Niccol 为公司带来了 800% 的回报，但他的离职引发了投资者的担忧。新 CEO 的表现至关重要，因为管理层变动可能会给运营带来不确定性。Chipotle 的表现可能出现三种潜在结果：改善、维持或下降。鉴于其高达 53 的市盈率，即使公司保持强劲的业绩纪录，投资者也应谨慎行事</p>

<p>A big shake-up just hit <strong>Chipotle Mexican Grill</strong>(CMG 0.49%). Longtime chief executive officer (CEO) Brian Niccol just announced a surprising departure to <strong>Starbucks</strong>. Niccol has been instrumental in delivering a turnaround for Chipotle after its foodborne illness outbreaks, leading the stock to 800% returns since joining in 2018, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the world over that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨式烧烤（CMG 0.49%）刚刚经历了一场大洗牌。长期担任首席执行官（CEO）的 Brian Niccol 刚刚宣布意外离职加入星巴克。自 2018 年加入以来，Niccol 在 Chipotle 实现了一次重大转变，使股价上涨了 800%，成为世界上表现最好的股票之一。</p>
</div><p>Leaving a company -- especially for a competitor -- will always upset investors. It is no surprise, then, to see Chipotle stock falling on this news. In fact, the stock has taken a 25% dive since its recent stock split in June. This is not the worst drawdown ever for Chipotle, but one of the most significant in the last 10 years. Here's my prediction for what comes next with the Brian Niccol era over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>离开一家公司，尤其是去竞争对手，总会让投资者感到不安。因此，看到 Chipotle 股票在这一消息公布后下跌并不奇怪。事实上，自 6 月份最近的股票分拆以来，股价已经下跌了 25%。这并不是 Chipotle 近 10 年来最糟糕的回落，但却是其中一个最显著的。以下是我对 Brian Niccol 时代接下来可能发生的预测。</p>
</div><h2>A surprising CEO exit</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>令人惊讶的 CEO 离职</h2>
</div><p>On Aug. 13, Starbucks announced it had hired Brian Niccol away from Chipotle as its CEO, effective immediately. This was a shocker for two reasons. First, Starbucks had not previously told investors it was looking for a new CEO. Second, Chipotle's valuation was similar to that of Starbucks at the time of the announcement, with a market cap range of $75 billion to $100 billion. It also has a clearer path to store expansion and has put up much better performance over the last few years compared to the coffee giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>8 月 13 日，星巴克宣布立即任命 Brian Niccol 为其首席执行官，这令人震惊。有两个原因让人大吃一惊。首先，星巴克此前并未告知投资者他们正在寻找新的首席执行官。其次，在公布此消息时，Chipotle 的估值与星巴克相似，市值范围在 750 亿至 1000 亿美元之间。与咖啡巨头相比，Chipotle 有更清晰的门店扩张路径，并在过去几年表现比咖啡巨头更出色。</p>
</div><p>So why did Niccol leave for Starbucks? We may never know the real details, but it seems like Niccol may have thought Chipotle was in a great place and was now looking for his next big project. After Niccol arrived at Chipotle in 2018, he righted the ship after the terrible foodborne illness outbreaks at its restaurants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，Niccol 为什么会离开去星巴克呢？我们可能永远不会知道真实细节，但看起来 Niccol 可能认为 Chipotle 现在处于一个很好的位置，正在寻找他的下一个重大项目。自 2018 年加入 Chipotle 以来，他在餐厅遭遇可怕的食源性疾病爆发后，纠正了局面。</p>
</div><p>The stock has returned over 800% for investors since he had taken over the reins, crushing Starbucks' returns over that same time period. Niccol may see more ways to improve the Starbucks business and feels comfortable with the culture he has built. Or, it might just be the money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自他接管以来，该股票为投资者带来了超过 800% 的回报，超过了同一时期星巴克的回报。Niccol 可能看到了改进星巴克业务的更多方式，并对他建立的文化感到满意。或者，这可能只是为了金钱。</p>
</div><p>Either way, this shouldn't be taken as a knock on Chipotle's business. In fact, it says the opposite. Chipotle's business has thrived over the past few years, posting positive same-store sales growth every year since Niccol took over, even during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is why the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) above 50. Investors are optimistic about the future for Chipotle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，这不应被视为对 Chipotle 业务的打击。事实上，相反。自 Niccol 接管以来，Chipotle 的业务在过去几年中蓬勃发展，自 Niccol 接管以来，每年都实现了正增长，甚至在 COVID-19 大流行期间也是如此。这就是为什么该股票的市盈率（P/E）超过 50。投资者对 Chipotle 的未来充满乐观。</p>
</div><h2>The new CEO hire is a vital decision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新 CEO 的聘任是一项重要决定</h2>
</div><p>The new CEO hire will be a big moment for Chipotle investors. Management changes always come with uncertainty, especially with delicate operations such as restaurants. The new leader won't be in as difficult as a spot as Niccol in 2018, with Chipotle's business firing on all cylinders at the moment while Niccol had to rebuild the brand after the food poisonings. In fact, the biggest risk is that the new CEO changes up Chipotle's strategy and makes things worse. You might say it is impossible to mess up its burrito and Mexican bowl formula, but you'd be surprised how often management can impair a once-loved business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新 CEO 的聘任将是 Chipotle 投资者的重要时刻。管理变动总是伴随着不确定性，尤其是对于像餐厅这样的敏感运营。新领导者不会像 2018 年的 Niccol 那样处境艰难，因为 Chipotle 的业务目前正处于全面发展之中，而 Niccol 则不得不在食物中毒事件后重建品牌。事实上，最大的风险是新 CEO 改变 Chipotle 的战略并使情况变得更糟。你可能会说要毁掉它的墨西哥卷饼和碗的配方是不可能的，但你会惊讶于管理层多么经常会损害一家曾经受人喜爱的企业。</p>
</div><p>We've seen it happen many times before. Starbucks has struggled multiple times in the past when longtime CEO Howard Schultz left the company. Even outside the restaurant industry, <strong>Disney</strong> has gone through bouts of inconsistent managers that have hampered operations. There's no guarantee the new CEO will break Chipotle's momentum. But there's no guarantee they will succeed, either. There is uncertainty today as opposed to with Niccol, who investors had high certainty was a strong leader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们以前看到过很多次。星巴克在过去多次在长期首席执行官 Howard Schultz 离开公司时陷入困境。即使在餐饮行业之外，迪士尼也经历过一段时间内管理层不一致，这损害了运营。新 CEO 没有保证会打破 Chipotle 的势头。但也没有保证他们会成功。与 Niccol 不同，投资者对他是一位强大的领导者有很高的确定性，今天存在不确定性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b1f2a98421bc263a483411374cc1bd83.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b1f2a98421bc263a483411374cc1bd83.png"/></p>
<p>CMG Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CMG 营收（TTM）数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>What comes next for the stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票的下一步是什么？</h2>
</div><p>There are three possible outcomes for Chipotle and its new CEO. Either they improve, maintain, or impair Chipotle's restaurant operations. Given that Brian Niccol might be the best leader in the entire restaurant industry, I have doubts a new CEO can meaningfully improve Chipotle's business can from here. It can keep growing the number of restaurants in operation (3,530 at the end of last quarter) for a long while, but there is only so much you can do to optimize the restaurant business, especially if the company has exhausted its possibilities of opening new restaurants in prime locations. It is a simple model at the end of the day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Chipotle 和其新 CEO 有三种可能的结果。要么他们改善，保持，或损害 Chipotle 的餐厅运营。考虑到 Brian Niccol 可能是整个餐饮行业最好的领导者，我对新 CEO 能够从这里有意义地改善 Chipotle 的业务表示怀疑。它可以继续增加运营的餐厅数量（上季末为 3,530 家），但在优化餐厅业务方面，公司已经耗尽了在黄金地段开设新餐厅的可能性。这归根结底是一个简单的模式。</p>
</div><p>So, Chipotle will either maintain its stellar performance or get worse under the new CEO. However, even if Chipotle maintains its excellence, I think investors should be cautious about the stock. It trades at a P/E of 53, which is around double the <strong>S&amp;P</strong> <strong>500</strong> index average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Chipotle 将在新 CEO 的领导下保持其出色表现或变得更糟。然而，即使 Chipotle 保持其卓越表现，我认为投资者应对该股保持谨慎。它的市盈率为 53，是标准普尔 500 指数平均水平的两倍左右。</p>
</div><p>Assuming sales and net profit grow by 100% over the next five years (the former grew at the same pace over the last five years), it's hard to argue the stock is worth owning. Assuming consistent profit margins, that would only bring down Chipotle's P/E to 26.5, which is not cheap on a five-year forward basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假设销售额和净利润在未来五年增长 100%（过去五年增长速度相同），很难争辩说这支股票值得拥有。假设利润率保持稳定，这只会将 Chipotle 的市盈率降至 26.5，这在未来五年的基础上并不便宜。</p>
</div><p>Add it altogether, and it looks like Chipotle stock is pricing in a ton of growth and high expectations for the next few years, no matter who the CEO would be. Despite its strong historical performance, this indicates investors should stay away from buying Chipotle stock. Keep this one on the watch list for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合考虑，Chipotle 股票似乎正在定价大量增长和对未来几年的高期望，无论新 CEO 是谁。尽管其过去表现强劲，但这表明投资者应远离购买 Chipotle 股票。暂时将其列入观察名单。</p>
</div>

墨式烧烤在失去 CEO 后股价下跌 25%：我对未来走势的预测