<p>这是 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVIDIA 4.55%）的世界，投资者只是生活在其中。至少，在 2023 年和 2024 年是这样的。作为芯片制造商和领先的人工智能（AI）计算基础设施提供商，英伟达现在的市值超过了 3 万亿美元，成为全球第三大公司。在过去五年中上涨了近 3000%，现在是有史以来表现最好的股票之一，使得长期股东们财富累累。</p>
<p>我预测这波疯狂的增长即将结束。不，这与公司即将在 8 月 28 日发布的财报无关。但与可能影响英伟达长期定价权的竞争格局有关。以下是我认为英伟达疯狂的股价涨幅将在未来几年内结束的原因。</p>
<h2>云垂直整合</h2>
<p>在过去五年中，英伟达的营业收入增长了 2000%，达到 480 亿美元。这种增长是因为英伟达芯片是新的人工智能工具在科技行业中的首选计算工具。作为这些首选芯片的唯一规模化供应商，并且在技术上领先于 <strong>英特尔</strong> 等竞争对手，英伟达的收入和利润率激增，因为它以高昂的价格出售这些稀缺资源。</p>
<p>其三大客户分别是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>（谷歌）和 <strong>微软</strong>。这三家大型云计算提供商是新的人工智能算法和软件的基础设施支柱。综合来看，这三家可能每年在英伟达芯片上花费超过 100 亿美元，甚至可能达到 200 亿美元。现在，看起来英伟达已经激怒了云计算领域的蜂巢。</p>
<p>在华尔街关注不足的情况下，这些云服务提供商宣布了巨额投资，以生产自己的人工智能芯片。例如，亚马逊现在正在生产自己的芯片，名为 Inferentia 和 Trainium，直接与英伟达竞争。这些产品目前在计算能力上落后于英伟达，但由于在英伟达芯片上花费了如此多的资金，亚马逊有理由投入数十亿美元用于研发，试图改进这些产品。</p>
<p>谷歌拥有自己的张量处理单元（TPU），微软宣布了对内部芯片开发的投资。它们可能需要多年才能扩大规模，但供应量只会增加，为英伟达带来更多竞争，而不是减少。更糟糕的是，竞争来自英伟达自己的客户。</p>
<h2>竞争消除定价权</h2>
<p>英伟达过去两年股价上涨的关键是营运利润率的扩张。从低点约 15% 开始，英伟达的营运利润率在过去 12 个月内约为 60%。这实际上对英伟达的盈利增长做出了更大贡献。在过去三年中，营业收入增长了 228%，而营运利润率从低点上涨了近 4 倍。</p>
<p>英伟达之所以能够拥有荒谬的利润率，是因为目前面临的人工智能计算芯片竞争很少。这导致定价权，加速了营收增长并扩大了利润率——这对股票是一系列美好的催化剂。然而，如果竞争加剧，这种情况可能会发生逆转，而这正是三家最大的云服务提供商正在发生的。如果它们继续用自己的品牌替换越来越多的英伟达芯片，英伟达的营收和盈利增长将受到影响。</p>
<p>需要明确的是，这种竞争的时间表不是在 2024 年。亚马逊、微软和谷歌可能需要多年时间才能在英伟达的人工智能芯片业务中占据一席之地。但由于英伟达对它们实施的价格上涨，这三家大型云服务提供商有巨大的动力这样做。这三家大型云服务提供商都有足够的现金用于推动这些部门扩大规模。而且他们正在努力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b8adee85c8b7e1cfbf96522be2776e35.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b8adee85c8b7e1cfbf96522be2776e35.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>英伟达股票的风险</h2>
<p>英伟达股票目前具有疯狂的势头。这是因为盈利和营收正以疯狂的速度增长。来自竞争对手的人工智能芯片供应增加——无论是来自亚马逊还是其他任何公司——可能会成为英伟达财务状况的双重打击。</p>
<p>竞争加剧意味着云服务提供商和其他人工智能芯片购买者可以购买更多芯片。供需法则规定，如果供应增加而需求保持不变，价格将下降。这将导致营收放缓和利润率下降，这两者都会对英伟达的盈利能力产生负面影响。</p>
<p>目前，英伟达的市盈率（P/E）为 73，几乎是 <strong>标普 500</strong> 指数平均水平的三倍。而且这是基于具有高达 60% 利润率的滞后盈利。如果定价权下降，将影响营收和利润率。从数字的角度来看，这意味着即使英伟达在未来几年内销售更多的计算机芯片，利润实际上可能会大幅下降。</p>
<p>盈利下降的股票不会以 73 倍市盈率交易。而且不要忘记，如果利润率下降到 “仅” 40%，与其当前的 3 万亿美元市值相比，这一市盈率将超过 100。这使得英伟达股票存在极高的风险，这就是为什么我预测其疯狂的股价上涨即将结束。它仍然是一家优质企业，但目前不值得以 3 万亿美元的市值交易。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达（NVIDIA）由于在人工智能计算领域的主导地位，股价大幅上涨，五年来涨幅近 3000%。然而，预测表明，由于亚马逊、谷歌和微软等主要云服务提供商加大对自家人工智能芯片的投资，这种增长可能很快就会结束。随着这些公司推出替代产品，英伟达的定价能力和利润率可能会下降，严重影响其收入增长。目前，英伟达的股价交易于高达 73 的市盈率，表明在供应增加、对其芯片需求减少的情况下存在潜在风险</p>

<p>It's <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA 4.55%) world, investors are just living in it. At least, that's what it has felt like in 2023 and 2024. The chipmaker and leading provider of artificial intelligence (AI) computing infrastructure now has a market cap topping $3 trillion, making it the third-largest company in the world. Up close to 3,000% in the last five years, it is now one of the best performing stocks ever, making longtime shareholders incredibly wealthy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVIDIA 4.55%）的世界，投资者只是生活在其中。至少，在 2023 年和 2024 年是这样的。作为芯片制造商和领先的人工智能（AI）计算基础设施提供商，英伟达现在的市值超过了 3 万亿美元，成为全球第三大公司。在过去五年中上涨了近 3000%，现在是有史以来表现最好的股票之一，使得长期股东们财富累累。</p>
</div><p>I predict this monster run is close to over. No, it has nothing to do with the company's upcoming earnings release on Aug. 28. But it does have to do with a widening competitive set that could impact Nvidia's pricing power over the long term. Here's why I think Nvidia's monster stock gains are set to end within the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我预测这波疯狂的增长即将结束。不，这与公司即将在 8 月 28 日发布的财报无关。但与可能影响英伟达长期定价权的竞争格局有关。以下是我认为英伟达疯狂的股价涨幅将在未来几年内结束的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Cloud vertical integration</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>云垂直整合</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia's operating income is up more than 2,000% in the last five years to $48 billion. This growth has come because Nvidia chips are the premier computing vehicle for new AI tools taking over the technology sector. As the only scaled supplier of these premier chips and with a technological lead over competitors such as <strong>Intel</strong>, Nvidia has seen a surge in revenue and profit margins as it sells these scarce resources at sky-high prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年中，英伟达的营业收入增长了 2000%，达到 480 亿美元。这种增长是因为英伟达芯片是新的人工智能工具在科技行业中的首选计算工具。作为这些首选芯片的唯一规模化供应商，并且在技术上领先于 <strong>英特尔</strong> 等竞争对手，英伟达的收入和利润率激增，因为它以高昂的价格出售这些稀缺资源。</p>
</div><p>Three of its largest customers are <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong> (Google), and <strong>Microsoft</strong>. These are the three big cloud-computing providers that are the infrastructure backbone for new AI algorithms and software. Combined, these three are likely spending over $10 billion a year, perhaps $20 billion, on Nvidia chips. Now, it looks like Nvidia has angered the cloud hornets nest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其三大客户分别是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>（谷歌）和 <strong>微软</strong>。这三家大型云计算提供商是新的人工智能算法和软件的基础设施支柱。综合来看，这三家可能每年在英伟达芯片上花费超过 100 亿美元，甚至可能达到 200 亿美元。现在，看起来英伟达已经激怒了云计算领域的蜂巢。</p>
</div><p>In a move that is being underfollowed by Wall Street, these cloud providers have announced huge investments to make their own AI chips. For example, Amazon is now making its own chips called Inferentia and Trainium that directly compete with Nvidia. The products are behind Nvidia right now in computing capabilities, but with so much money spent on Nvidia chips, it makes sense for Amazon to pour billions of dollars into research and development to try and improve these offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在华尔街关注不足的情况下，这些云服务提供商宣布了巨额投资，以生产自己的人工智能芯片。例如，亚马逊现在正在生产自己的芯片，名为 Inferentia 和 Trainium，直接与英伟达竞争。这些产品目前在计算能力上落后于英伟达，但由于在英伟达芯片上花费了如此多的资金，亚马逊有理由投入数十亿美元用于研发，试图改进这些产品。</p>
</div><p>Google has its own tensor processing units (TPUs), and Microsoft has announced its investments into internal chip development. They may take years to scale, but supply is only going to go up and create more competition for Nvidia, not less. Even worse, the competition is coming from Nvidia's own customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌拥有自己的张量处理单元（TPU），微软宣布了对内部芯片开发的投资。它们可能需要多年才能扩大规模，但供应量只会增加，为英伟达带来更多竞争，而不是减少。更糟糕的是，竞争来自英伟达自己的客户。</p>
</div><h2>Competition eliminates pricing power</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>竞争消除定价权</h2>
</div><p>A key for Nvidia's stock gains in the past two years has been operating-margin expansion. From a low at close to 15%, Nvidia's operating margin was around 60% over the past 12 months. This has actually contributed more to Nvidia's earnings growth than revenue. Revenue is up 228% in the last three years, while operating margin is up close to 4 times off of its lows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达过去两年股价上涨的关键是营运利润率的扩张。从低点约 15% 开始，英伟达的营运利润率在过去 12 个月内约为 60%。这实际上对英伟达的盈利增长做出了更大贡献。在过去三年中，营业收入增长了 228%，而营运利润率从低点上涨了近 4 倍。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is able to have absurd profit margins because of the minimal current competition it faces for AI computer chips. This leads to pricing power, which accelerates revenue growth and expands margins -- a wonderful set of catalysts for a stock. However, this can reverse if competition increases, which is happening with the three largest cloud providers. If they keep replacing more and more of their Nvidia chips with their own brands, Nvidia's revenue and earnings growth will be impacted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达之所以能够拥有荒谬的利润率，是因为目前面临的人工智能计算芯片竞争很少。这导致定价权，加速了营收增长并扩大了利润率——这对股票是一系列美好的催化剂。然而，如果竞争加剧，这种情况可能会发生逆转，而这正是三家最大的云服务提供商正在发生的。如果它们继续用自己的品牌替换越来越多的英伟达芯片，英伟达的营收和盈利增长将受到影响。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, the timeline on this competition is not in 2024. It may take multiple years for Amazon, Microsoft, and Google to make a dent in Nvidia's AI chip business. But the companies have a huge incentive to do so because of the price hikes Nvidia has implemented on them. All three of the big cloud providers have plenty of cash to spend in order to get these divisions to scale. And they are working on them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明确的是，这种竞争的时间表不是在 2024 年。亚马逊、微软和谷歌可能需要多年时间才能在英伟达的人工智能芯片业务中占据一席之地。但由于英伟达对它们实施的价格上涨，这三家大型云服务提供商有巨大的动力这样做。这三家大型云服务提供商都有足够的现金用于推动这些部门扩大规模。而且他们正在努力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b8adee85c8b7e1cfbf96522be2776e35.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b8adee85c8b7e1cfbf96522be2776e35.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Risks for Nvidia stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达股票的风险</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia stock has insane momentum right now. That is because earnings and revenue are growing at an insane rate. A growing supply of AI chips from competitors -- whether Amazon or anyone else -- could be a double-whammy headwind for Nvidia's financials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达股票目前具有疯狂的势头。这是因为盈利和营收正以疯狂的速度增长。来自竞争对手的人工智能芯片供应增加——无论是来自亚马逊还是其他任何公司——可能会成为英伟达财务状况的双重打击。</p>
</div><p>Growing competition means increasing the supply of chips that cloud providers and other AI chip purchasers can buy. The simple law of supply and demand dictates that prices will come down if supply increases but demand remains the same. This would lead to a revenue slowdown and a margin decrease, which both negatively affect Nvidia's earnings power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争加剧意味着云服务提供商和其他人工智能芯片购买者可以购买更多芯片。供需法则规定，如果供应增加而需求保持不变，价格将下降。这将导致营收放缓和利润率下降，这两者都会对英伟达的盈利能力产生负面影响。</p>
</div><p>Today, Nvidia trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 73, which is close to triple the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index average. And this is based on trailing earnings with sky-high 60% profit margins. If pricing power comes down, it will impact revenue <em>and</em> profit margins. From a numbers basis, this means even if Nvidia sells more computer chips in the coming years, profits could actually be significantly lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，英伟达的市盈率（P/E）为 73，几乎是 <strong>标普 500</strong> 指数平均水平的三倍。而且这是基于具有高达 60% 利润率的滞后盈利。如果定价权下降，将影响营收和利润率。从数字的角度来看，这意味着即使英伟达在未来几年内销售更多的计算机芯片，利润实际上可能会大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>Stocks with declining earnings don't trade at a P/E of 73. And don't forget that this P/E would climb to more than 100 compared to its current market cap of $3 trillion if profit margins decline to &#34;just&#34; 40%. This makes Nvidia stock incredibly risky, which is why I predict its monster stock run is coming to a close. It is still a quality business but not one that deserves to trade at a market cap of $3 trillion right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利下降的股票不会以 73 倍市盈率交易。而且不要忘记，如果利润率下降到 “仅” 40%，与其当前的 3 万亿美元市值相比，这一市盈率将超过 100。这使得英伟达股票存在极高的风险，这就是为什么我预测其疯狂的股价上涨即将结束。它仍然是一家优质企业，但目前不值得以 3 万亿美元的市值交易。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Is What Will Finally End Nvidia's Monster Stock Gains

- Nvidia 是世界的主宰，投资者只是生活在其中。
- 其市值超过 3 万亿美元，成为全球第三大公司。
- 随着竞争加剧，Nvidia 的股价涨幅即将结束。

预测：这将最终终结英伟达的巨额股票涨幅