<p>在竞争激烈的商业世界中，即使是效率的微小提升也可以推动一家公司在竞争对手中取得成功。人工智能（AI）和机器人流程自动化（RPA）可以帮助实现这些提升，使它们成为提高生产力的不可思议工具。</p>
<p>例如，一家大型金融和房屋贷款公司将由 <strong>UiPath</strong>（PATH -2.18%）提供的 RPA 整合到其工作流程中，并表示这些变化每年节省了 1 万个人时。这些机器人使用事先准备的软件执行功能，这些功能以前是手动完成的。也许最好的部分是，这些 RPA 服务几乎 100% 准确，并且全天候工作。</p>
<p>对客户公司的盈利能力和增长潜力是巨大的。它可以用更少的员工完成更多工作，更准确，而机器人工具使这些员工能够从事高级、使命关键的任务，而不是重复的低级任务。像这样的例子展示了为什么 UiPath 作为一家公司具有潜力。</p>
<h2>UiPath 一开始表现强劲，但像许多科技股一样在 2022 年受到打击</h2>
<p>当 UiPath 在 2021 年初上市并在当时的市场繁荣中成为一家高飞的科技股时，其潜力显而易见。然而，随着 2021 年的进展，利率上升的威胁对许多高飞的科技股产生了影响，华尔街开始对这家业务自动化软件开发商感到失望。该股票从 52 周高点下跌约 52%，从历史高点下跌约 82%。</p>
<p>在这种升息的经济环境中，公司面临着严峻挑战，包括增加竞争、难以扩大客户群和管理变化。对于考虑购买 UiPath 股票的投资者来说，其估值更加合理，除了挑战之外还有一些积极因素需要考虑。寻找价格合理的复苏公司进行投资可能是提高长期收益的绝佳方式。以下是我认为 UiPath 可能是其中之一的复苏故事的原因。</p>
<h2>为什么 UiPath 的股价在 2024 年下跌？</h2>
<p>UiPath 的股价在 2023 年大部分时间和 2024 年一直处于缓慢复苏模式。然而，在 5 月底发布最新财报后，股价大幅下跌。管理层将全年年度重复收入（ARR）指导从 17.3 亿美元降至 16.6 亿美元。4% 的指导削减可能看起来不重要，但对于增长型科技公司来说任何指导削减都很重要（公司往往会为容易达到的目标制定指导，以便超额完成）。更令人担忧的是，管理层将全年营收指导从 15.6 亿美元降至 14.1 亿美元。净基于美元的留存率为 118%（现有客户的支出比前一年增加了 18%），降级的营收目标表明公司失去了客户。</p>
<p>股价下跌的另一个原因是首席执行官罗布·恩斯林（Rob Enslin）突然辞职的消息。尽管恩斯林担任首席执行官的时间很短暂（自 2022 年以来一直担任联席首席执行官，与公司创始人丹尼尔·迪内斯（Daniel Dines）一起），但他没有长时间任职对一些投资者来说是一个红旗。迪内斯重新担任首席执行官一职，这应该有助于稳定局势，同时管理层考虑其下一步。创始人的回归有时也可以因其对业务的激情和内部知识而使公司焕发活力。因此，这可能会成为一个积极的发展。</p>
<h2>正现金流、强劲资产负债表和巨大市场</h2>
<p>UiPath 显然正在努力应对一些挑战。但也存在机会。</p>
<p>如上所述，创始人的回归可能会带动 UiPath。在恩斯林的领导下，该业务并未蓬勃发展，因此新（旧？）领导层提供了变革的机会。迪内斯对 UiPath 的成功有着个人利益，并且有很多可以利用的资源。</p>
<p>虽然 UiPath 的营收增长有所放缓，但并未完全停滞。上季度，ARR 同比增长了 21%，销售增长了 16%。UiPath 的现金流也是正的，过去四个报告季度的利润率为 24%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/256a0ae59e9ad23144778034ab5c7012.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/256a0ae59e9ad23144778034ab5c7012.png"/></p>
<p>PATH 营收（TTM）数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>此外，尽管存在一些客户流失，但也有亮点。上季度提供超过 10 万美元和 100 万美元年销售额的大客户数量再次增加。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgyNDYvdWlwYXRoLWxhcmdlLWN1c3RvbWVycy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgyNDYvdWlwYXRoLWxhcmdlLWN1c3RvbWVycy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>来源：UiPath。</p>
<p>迪内斯接手的公司财务状况良好。UiPath 账面上拥有近 20 亿美元的现金和投资，没有长期债务，仅有 5.98 亿美元的流动负债，而流动资产为 25 亿美元。这样的资产负债表将使公司能够资助增长、研发和战略收购。</p>
<p>Statista 预测，RPA 市场将以每年 37% 的复合增长率增长，从 2022 年的 37 亿美元增长到 2032 年的 800 亿美元以上。即使占据这一市场的一小部分，对于 UiPath 这样的小公司来说也将是巨大的。</p>
<h2>现在是购买 UiPath 股票的时机吗？</h2>
<p>股票的估值约为销售额的 5.2 倍，反映了 UiPath 面临的巨大挑战。这个价格销售（P/S）比率不到其最近平均水平的三分之二，低于同行。例如，<strong>Gitlab</strong> 和 <strong>CommVault Systems</strong> 的估值要高得多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61d61b8c5a2dfcd9f12b1260450bbfd0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61d61b8c5a2dfcd9f12b1260450bbfd0.png"/></p>
<p>PATH PS 比率数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>这些软件公司从事不同的业务，但它们都是增长型科技公司，市值在 65 亿美元至 75 亿美元之间，毛利率超过 80%。它们的相似之处使它们的估值具有相关性。</p>
<p>UiPath 的成功并不是铁定的。然而，市场似乎已经定价了该公司面临的所有挑战，却没有考虑到任何机会。尽管将投资组合中的大部分资金投入 UiPath 可能不明智，但其复苏机会使其成为长期投资者的投机购买，他们不介意承担一些风险。</p>

PATH

<p>UiPath 在高利率环境下面临挑战，导致股价大幅下跌，距离 52 周高点下跌了 52%。尽管降低了收入指引并且首席执行官 Rob Enslin 突然辞职，但创始人 Daniel Dines 的回归可能会振兴公司。UiPath 保持着正面的现金流，强劲的利润率，以及没有债务的稳健资产负债表。随着 RPA 市场预计每年增长 37%，尽管最近遭遇挫折，但仍有复苏的潜力。
![]</p>

<p>In the competitive business world, even small increases in efficiency can propel a company to success over its rivals. Artificial intelligence (AI) and robotic process automation (RPA) can help create those increases, making them incredible tools for productivity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在竞争激烈的商业世界中，即使是效率的微小提升也可以推动一家公司在竞争对手中取得成功。人工智能（AI）和机器人流程自动化（RPA）可以帮助实现这些提升，使它们成为提高生产力的不可思议工具。</p>
</div><p>One large financial and home loan company, for instance, integrated RPA provided by <strong>UiPath</strong>(PATH -2.18%) into its workflow and said the changes saved it 10,000 man-hours annually. These robots perform functions using off-the-shelf software that was previously done manually. Perhaps the best part is that these RPA services are nearly 100% accurate and work 24 hours a day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，一家大型金融和房屋贷款公司将由 <strong>UiPath</strong>（PATH -2.18%）提供的 RPA 整合到其工作流程中，并表示这些变化每年节省了 1 万个人时。这些机器人使用事先准备的软件执行功能，这些功能以前是手动完成的。也许最好的部分是，这些 RPA 服务几乎 100% 准确，并且全天候工作。</p>
</div><p>The profitability and growth implications for the client company are massive. It gets more done with fewer employees, more accurately, and the robot tools allow those employees to work on high-level, mission-critical tasks rather than repetitive, lower-level ones. Examples like this show why UiPath has potential as a company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对客户公司的盈利能力和增长潜力是巨大的。它可以用更少的员工完成更多工作，更准确，而机器人工具使这些员工能够从事高级、使命关键的任务，而不是重复的低级任务。像这样的例子展示了为什么 UiPath 作为一家公司具有潜力。</p>
</div><h2>UiPath started strong but took a hit like many tech stocks did in 2022</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>UiPath 一开始表现强劲，但像许多科技股一样在 2022 年受到打击</h2>
</div><p>That potential was evident when UiPath went public in early 2021 and started out as a high-flying tech stock during the market boom going on at the time. As 2021 progressed though, the threat of interest rate increases took a toll on many high-flying tech stocks and Wall Street began to sour on the business automation software developer. The stock is trading down about 52% from its 52-week highs and about 82% from its all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当 UiPath 在 2021 年初上市并在当时的市场繁荣中成为一家高飞的科技股时，其潜力显而易见。然而，随着 2021 年的进展，利率上升的威胁对许多高飞的科技股产生了影响，华尔街开始对这家业务自动化软件开发商感到失望。该股票从 52 周高点下跌约 52%，从历史高点下跌约 82%。</p>
</div><p>In this raised interest-rate economic environment, the company is dealing with serious challenges, including increased competition, difficulty increasing its customer base, and management changes. For investors considering UiPath's stock today, its valuation is much more reasonable and it has some positives to factor in along with the challenges. Finding inexpensively valued comeback companies to invest in can be a terrific way to juice your long-term gains. Here's why I think UiPath could be one of those comeback stories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种升息的经济环境中，公司面临着严峻挑战，包括增加竞争、难以扩大客户群和管理变化。对于考虑购买 UiPath 股票的投资者来说，其估值更加合理，除了挑战之外还有一些积极因素需要考虑。寻找价格合理的复苏公司进行投资可能是提高长期收益的绝佳方式。以下是我认为 UiPath 可能是其中之一的复苏故事的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Why did UiPath's stock tumble in 2024?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么 UiPath 的股价在 2024 年下跌？</h2>
</div><p>UiPath's stock was in a slow recovery mode through much of 2023 and into 2024. However, the stock took a significant fall after it delivered its latest earnings report in late May. Management lowered its full-year annual recurring revenue (ARR) guidance from $1.73 billion to $1.66 billion. A 4% guidance cut may not seem significant, but any guidance cut is significant for growing tech companies (companies tend to guide for easily reachable targets so they can beat them). Even more concerning, management lowered its full-year revenue guidance by 10% from $1.56 billion to $1.41 billion. With a dollar-based net retention rate of 118% (its existing customers spent 18% more than they had in the prior year), the downgraded revenue target indicates that it lost customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UiPath 的股价在 2023 年大部分时间和 2024 年一直处于缓慢复苏模式。然而，在 5 月底发布最新财报后，股价大幅下跌。管理层将全年年度重复收入（ARR）指导从 17.3 亿美元降至 16.6 亿美元。4% 的指导削减可能看起来不重要，但对于增长型科技公司来说任何指导削减都很重要（公司往往会为容易达到的目标制定指导，以便超额完成）。更令人担忧的是，管理层将全年营收指导从 15.6 亿美元降至 14.1 亿美元。净基于美元的留存率为 118%（现有客户的支出比前一年增加了 18%），降级的营收目标表明公司失去了客户。</p>
</div><p>Another contributor to the stock drop was news that CEO Rob Enslin, who took over just four months ago, resigned suddenly. While Enslin was only CEO briefly (he had been co-CEO since 2022 along with company founder Daniel Dines) the fact that he didn't last long was a red flag for some investors. Dines returns to the CEO role, which should help settle things while management considers its next steps. Returning founders can sometimes also rejuvenate a company because of their passion and insider knowledge of the business. So this could end up being a positive development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价下跌的另一个原因是首席执行官罗布·恩斯林（Rob Enslin）突然辞职的消息。尽管恩斯林担任首席执行官的时间很短暂（自 2022 年以来一直担任联席首席执行官，与公司创始人丹尼尔·迪内斯（Daniel Dines）一起），但他没有长时间任职对一些投资者来说是一个红旗。迪内斯重新担任首席执行官一职，这应该有助于稳定局势，同时管理层考虑其下一步。创始人的回归有时也可以因其对业务的激情和内部知识而使公司焕发活力。因此，这可能会成为一个积极的发展。</p>
</div><h2>Positive cash flow, a strong balance sheet, and a massive market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>正现金流、强劲资产负债表和巨大市场</h2>
</div><p>UiPath is clearly trying to deal with some challenges. But there are also opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UiPath 显然正在努力应对一些挑战。但也存在机会。</p>
</div><p>As mentioned above, the return of its founder could kick-start UiPath. The business wasn't thriving under Enslin, so new (old?) leadership offers an opportunity for changes. Dines has a personal stake in UiPath's success and has a lot to work with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上所述，创始人的回归可能会带动 UiPath。在恩斯林的领导下，该业务并未蓬勃发展，因此新（旧？）领导层提供了变革的机会。迪内斯对 UiPath 的成功有着个人利益，并且有很多可以利用的资源。</p>
</div><p>While UiPath's revenue growth has slowed, it hasn't stalled completely. ARR increased 21% year over year last quarter, while sales grew 16%. UiPath's cash flow is also positive, with an impressive 24% margin over the last four reported quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 UiPath 的营收增长有所放缓，但并未完全停滞。上季度，ARR 同比增长了 21%，销售增长了 16%。UiPath 的现金流也是正的，过去四个报告季度的利润率为 24%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/256a0ae59e9ad23144778034ab5c7012.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/256a0ae59e9ad23144778034ab5c7012.png"/></p>
<p>PATH Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PATH 营收（TTM）数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Also, while there appears to have been some customer attrition, there are bright spots. The number of large customers that provide more than $100,000 and $1 million in annual sales increased again last quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，尽管存在一些客户流失，但也有亮点。上季度提供超过 10 万美元和 100 万美元年销售额的大客户数量再次增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgyNDYvdWlwYXRoLWxhcmdlLWN1c3RvbWVycy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F788246%2Fuipath-large-customers.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Source: UiPath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：UiPath。</p>
</div><p>Dines is taking over a company that's in decent financial health. UiPath has nearly $2 billion in cash and investments on its books, no long-term debt, and just $598 million in current liabilities compared to $2.5 billion in current assets. That balance sheet will allow the company to fund growth, research and development, and strategic acquisitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪内斯接手的公司财务状况良好。UiPath 账面上拥有近 20 亿美元的现金和投资，没有长期债务，仅有 5.98 亿美元的流动负债，而流动资产为 25 亿美元。这样的资产负债表将使公司能够资助增长、研发和战略收购。</p>
</div><p>Statista forecasts that the RPA market will grow at a compound annual rate of 37% through 2032, going from $3.7 billion in 2022 to over $80 billion. Even capturing a modest fraction of this market would be massive for a small company like UiPath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Statista 预测，RPA 市场将以每年 37% 的复合增长率增长，从 2022 年的 37 亿美元增长到 2032 年的 800 亿美元以上。即使占据这一市场的一小部分，对于 UiPath 这样的小公司来说也将是巨大的。</p>
</div><h2>Is UiPath stock a buy now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是购买 UiPath 股票的时机吗？</h2>
</div><p>The stock's valuation of about 5.2 times sales reflects the immense challenges UiPath faces. That price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is less than two-thirds of its recent average and lower than peers. For instance, <strong>Gitlab</strong> and <strong>CommVault Systems</strong> trade at significantly higher valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票的估值约为销售额的 5.2 倍，反映了 UiPath 面临的巨大挑战。这个价格销售（P/S）比率不到其最近平均水平的三分之二，低于同行。例如，<strong>Gitlab</strong> 和 <strong>CommVault Systems</strong> 的估值要高得多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61d61b8c5a2dfcd9f12b1260450bbfd0.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61d61b8c5a2dfcd9f12b1260450bbfd0.png"/></p>
<p>PATH PS Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PATH PS 比率数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>These software companies do different things, but they are all growing tech companies with market caps between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion and gross margins over 80%. The similarities make their valuations relevant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些软件公司从事不同的业务，但它们都是增长型科技公司，市值在 65 亿美元至 75 亿美元之间，毛利率超过 80%。它们的相似之处使它们的估值具有相关性。</p>
</div><p>UiPath's success is far from guaranteed. However, it appears the market is pricing in all the challenges and none of the opportunities for this company. While investing a large portion of your portfolio in UiPath would be unwise, its comeback opportunity makes it a speculative buy for long-term investors who don't mind some risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UiPath 的成功并不是铁定的。然而，市场似乎已经定价了该公司面临的所有挑战，却没有考虑到任何机会。尽管将投资组合中的大部分资金投入 UiPath 可能不明智，但其复苏机会使其成为长期投资者的投机购买，他们不介意承担一些风险。</p>
</div>

每个人都在放弃 UiPath 的股票。以下是我不放弃的原因