<p><strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -2.68%) 自 2015 年 5 月首次公开上市以来，股价一直波动不定，但股价仍然取得了巨大成功，公司的整个上市历史中股价飙升了 2,860%。</p>
<p>截至目前，该公司的市值接近 1000 亿美元。这家顶级电子商务股票能否在 2030 年之前使市值增长 10 倍？这将使 Shopify 成为一个万亿美元的企业。</p>
<h2>电子商务全方位</h2>
<p>Shopify 成立还不到 20 年。管理层应该得到很多赞誉，因为这家企业取得了巨大的成功。Shopify 发现市场上存在一个未满足的需求，创建了一个软件平台，使任何人都能轻松在网上建立商店并立即开始销售产品。提供了各种工具，如结账和销售点解决方案、支付处理、营销功能和库存管理等。</p>
<p>该企业在电子商务领域开辟了成功的市场。Shopify 自豪地宣称 “在 175 多个国家支持数百万家企业”。</p>
<p>截至第二季度（截至 6 月 30 日），Shopify 处理了 672 亿美元的总商品交易额，即平台上订单的美元价值。这一数字同比增长了 22%，几乎是 2019 年同期的五倍。</p>
<p>多年来，这导致了巨大的收入增长。即使在经济不确定的时期，Shopify 的营收增长也令人印象深刻。今年上半年销售额增长了 22%。华尔街一致分析师预计，2023 年至 2026 年间，营收将以 21% 的复合年增长率增长。</p>
<p>对于长期增长潜力感到乐观是很容易的。在美国，实体零售仍占所有零售支出的 84%。根据 Grand View Research 的数据，全球电子商务销售预计在本十年余下的时间内以近 12% 的年增长率增长。这为 Shopify 继续保持增长轨迹提供了有利背景。</p>
<h2>保持期望值适度</h2>
<p>在我们甚至考虑到 Shopify 是否会加入万亿美元俱乐部之前，投资者必须首先确定这支股票是否值得加入他们的投资组合。</p>
<p>自 2023 年初以来，股价飙升了 119%，今天，它们的价格销售比（P/S）为 12.8。虽然这个倍数低于该股票的历史平均值 22，但在我看来仍然非常昂贵。</p>
<p>像 <strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 这样的主导互联网公司的价格销售比都远低于 Shopify。尽管 Shopify 可能比这些伟大公司有更好的增长潜力，但潜在投资者的安全边际很小。例如，如果增长明显放缓，投资者可能会抛售股票。</p>
<p>在盈利方面，Shopify 还有很多需要改进的地方，因为它没有连续发布正面收益的历史。到 2024 年上半年，它报告了 3.27 亿美元的营业收入。这是与去年相比的巨大改善，但仅占收入的 8.3%。希望随着业务规模扩大，利润可以飙升。但当然，这一结果远非确定。</p>
<p>我不认为 Shopify 是一个明智的购买机会。我也不认为该公司的市值可以在未来六年内增长 10 倍，达到 1 万亿美元。这将意味着每年增长率高达 47%。在过去的六年中，市值以每年 37% 的速度增长。最好保持适度的期望。</p>

SHOP

<p>自 2015 年上市以来，Shopify 的市值已经激增了 2,860%，但该公司未来的增长面临挑战。分析师预测，从 2023 年到 2026 年，受到不断扩大的电子商务行业推动，Shopify 的年收入将以 21% 的速度增长。然而，其当前的市销比仍然高达 12.8，引发了关于估值和盈利能力的担忧，因为该公司一直在努力实现稳定的盈利。预测称，到 2030 年，Shopify 有望成为一家市值达到一万亿美元的公司，这需要每年高达 47% 的显著增长率，远超过其过去的表现</p>

<p><strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -2.68%) has taken its investors on a volatile journey ever since its initial public offering in May 2015. But shares have still made for a wildly successful investment, as they have soared 2,860% during the company's entire public history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -2.68%) 自 2015 年 5 月首次公开上市以来，股价一直波动不定，但股价仍然取得了巨大成功，公司的整个上市历史中股价飙升了 2,860%。</p>
</div><p>As of this writing, the business carries a market cap of just under $100 billion. Can this top e-commerce stock see its market cap rise 10-fold between now and 2030? That would make Shopify a trillion-dollar enterprise by the end of the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，该公司的市值接近 1000 亿美元。这家顶级电子商务股票能否在 2030 年之前使市值增长 10 倍？这将使 Shopify 成为一个万亿美元的企业。</p>
</div><h2>All about e-commerce</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>电子商务全方位</h2>
</div><p>Shopify hasn't even been around for 20 years. Management deserves a ton of credit for the monster success this business has registered. Noticing an unmet need in the market, Shopify created a software platform that makes it incredibly easy for anyone to set up a store online and start selling products immediately. Various tools are offered, like checkout and point-of-sale solutions, payment processing, marketing features, and inventory management, among many others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shopify 成立还不到 20 年。管理层应该得到很多赞誉，因为这家企业取得了巨大的成功。Shopify 发现市场上存在一个未满足的需求，创建了一个软件平台，使任何人都能轻松在网上建立商店并立即开始销售产品。提供了各种工具，如结账和销售点解决方案、支付处理、营销功能和库存管理等。</p>
</div><p>The business has carved a successful niche in the e-commerce sector. Shopify boasts that it &#34;powers millions of businesses in more than 175 countries.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该企业在电子商务领域开辟了成功的市场。Shopify 自豪地宣称 “在 175 多个国家支持数百万家企业”。</p>
</div><p>It handled $67.2 billion in gross merchandise volume, or the dollar value of orders on the platform, in the second quarter (ended June 30). That figure was up 22% year over year and almost 5 times higher than the same period five years earlier in 2019.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至第二季度（截至 6 月 30 日），Shopify 处理了 672 亿美元的总商品交易额，即平台上订单的美元价值。这一数字同比增长了 22%，几乎是 2019 年同期的五倍。</p>
</div><p>This has resulted in tremendous revenue growth over the years. Even in uncertain economic times, Shopify's top-line gains are impressive. Sales were up 22% in the first six months of this year. And Wall Street consensus analyst estimates call for revenue to rise at a compound annual rate of 21% between 2023 and 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，这导致了巨大的收入增长。即使在经济不确定的时期，Shopify 的营收增长也令人印象深刻。今年上半年销售额增长了 22%。华尔街一致分析师预计，2023 年至 2026 年间，营收将以 21% 的复合年增长率增长。</p>
</div><p>It's easy to be optimistic about long-term growth potential. In the U.S., brick-and-mortar still represents 84% of all retail spending. According to Grand View Research, global e-commerce sales are set to rise at an annualized pace of almost 12% throughout the rest of the decade. This provides a favorable backdrop for Shopify to continue its growth trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于长期增长潜力感到乐观是很容易的。在美国，实体零售仍占所有零售支出的 84%。根据 Grand View Research 的数据，全球电子商务销售预计在本十年余下的时间内以近 12% 的年增长率增长。这为 Shopify 继续保持增长轨迹提供了有利背景。</p>
</div><h2>Keep expectations in check</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>保持期望值适度</h2>
</div><p>Before we even think about the possibility that Shopify will enter the trillion-dollar club, a group that currently consists of only seven companies (as of Aug. 23), investors must first figure out whether the stock is worthy of adding to their portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我们甚至考虑到 Shopify 是否会加入万亿美元俱乐部之前，投资者必须首先确定这支股票是否值得加入他们的投资组合。</p>
</div><p>Shares have soared 119% since the start of 2023, and today, they trade at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 12.8. While this multiple is lower than the stock's historical average of 22, it's still extremely expensive, in my opinion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2023 年初以来，股价飙升了 119%，今天，它们的价格销售比（P/S）为 12.8。虽然这个倍数低于该股票的历史平均值 22，但在我看来仍然非常昂贵。</p>
</div><p>Dominant internet-enabled firms, like <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, all trade well below Shopify's P/S ratio. Although Shopify might have better growth potential than these great companies, prospective investors have a minimal margin of safety. For example, investors will likely run for the exits if growth slows down meaningfully.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 这样的主导互联网公司的价格销售比都远低于 Shopify。尽管 Shopify 可能比这些伟大公司有更好的增长潜力，但潜在投资者的安全边际很小。例如，如果增长明显放缓，投资者可能会抛售股票。</p>
</div><p>Shopify also leaves much to be desired on the profitability front, as it hasn't had a consistent history of posting positive earnings. It reported $327 million in operating income through the first six months of 2024. That was a huge improvement from last year but represented just 8.3% of revenue. The hope is that as the business scales up, earnings can soar. But of course, this outcome is far from certain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在盈利方面，Shopify 还有很多需要改进的地方，因为它没有连续发布正面收益的历史。到 2024 年上半年，它报告了 3.27 亿美元的营业收入。这是与去年相比的巨大改善，但仅占收入的 8.3%。希望随着业务规模扩大，利润可以飙升。但当然，这一结果远非确定。</p>
</div><p>I don't believe Shopify is a smart buying opportunity. I also don't think the company's market cap can expand 10-fold over the next six years to reach $1 trillion. This would imply a monster annualized growth rate of 47%. In the past six years, the market cap climbed at a yearly pace of 37%. It's best to temper expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不认为 Shopify 是一个明智的购买机会。我也不认为该公司的市值可以在未来六年内增长 10 倍，达到 1 万亿美元。这将意味着每年增长率高达 47%。在过去的六年中，市值以每年 37% 的速度增长。最好保持适度的期望。</p>
</div>

Shopify 会在 2030 年成为市值万亿美元的股票吗？