<p><strong>Recursion Pharmaceuticals</strong>(RXRX 0.54%) 看起来并不像传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特通常会感兴趣的股票。它处于生物技术行业，这一行业往往波动较大，很难理解，许多新股票在该行业中没有稳定的收入或利润。更进一步复杂化的是，Recursion 从事新兴领域的人工智能（AI）驱动药物发现和开发，这意味着它缺乏巴菲特通常在投资中寻找的长期稳定表现历史。</p>
<p>但是，如果该公司实现其雄心壮志，它可能会变得更接近奥马哈神谷的偏好。以下是可能性及实现方式。</p>
<h2>克服这一障碍是计划的一部分</h2>
<p>传统上，巴菲特不青睐需要将大部分收入用于研发费用的企业。高昂的研发成本意味着公司没有足够强大的竞争优势来保护其市场份额免受竞争对手的侵蚀。毕竟，如果公司需要不断改进其产品或发明新产品以维持盈利增长，创新引擎最终可能会停滞，让投资者期待增长的愿望落空。</p>
<p>这部分是他很少投资于像 Recursion 这样的生物制药公司的原因之一。即使是最好的制药公司也往往将大部分收入用于研发，并且它们很难免于遭遇昂贵的挫折，打乱了股东们预期的增长。事实上，巴菲特目前根本不持有任何制药股。</p>
<p>然而，Recursion 的愿景至少部分解决了这一根本问题，通过其在药物开发技术和商业模式方面的创新。</p>
<p>这家生物技术公司的成名之作是其药物发现和开发平台，该平台严重依赖人工智能、机器学习和大量专业数据。使用人工智能的目的在于帮助管理层选择和优化最有前途的候选分子，推进每个临床前研究阶段，据称可以减少后期失败，同时节省资金和时间。理想情况下，其平台还能转化为更好的临床试验数据，并加快向商业化的进展。</p>
<p>关于 Recursion 是否能够真正实现这些改进，目前尚无定论。但是，如果它能够实现，它将实现三种不同的增长途径。第一种是简单地开发新药并自行商业化，而第二种是与希望利用其平台进行合作的大型制药公司合作，第三种是授权使用其平台或数据宝库的访问权限。</p>
<p>这就是巴菲特可能开始感兴趣的地方。</p>
<p>授权使用平台是一种非常低成本的收入生成方式，如果客户持续从获取访问权限中获得价值，这将表明通过削减生物制药研发成本来获得竞争优势。此外，如果合作伙伴愿意支付大量里程碑费用以获得 Recursion 更多实质性帮助，他们也很可能愿意签署协议，让这家生物技术公司从合作中生产的任何药物中获得重要的版税，这是另一种低成本的收入流。</p>
<p>最后，如果 Recursion 能够真正通过其平台降低自身管线项目的失败率，相比竞争对手，它甚至可能能够定期商业化药物，以满足巴菲特对长期稳定盈利增长的愿望。</p>
<h2>这家生物技术公司还没有达到最终形态</h2>
<p>是时候进行一个快速的现实检查了。根据其于 8 月 8 日发布的第二季度财报，Recursion 的研发费用为 7390 万美元，而其收入仅为 1440 万美元。这使其研发费用超过其季度收入的 513%，这是一个比率，巴菲特几乎肯定会认为不合格。</p>
<p>然而，在未来几年内可能会发生很多变化。Recursion 正在与另一家领先的人工智能生物技术公司 Exscientia 合并，两家公司预计在未来 18 个月内报告约 10 个临床试验结果。每个试验结果都是对 Recursion 关于其平台有效性的论点的（小）证据，可能有利也可能不利。</p>
<p>在接下来的四年内，它可能会获得多达四个管线项目的销售批准。这意味着在未来五年内，有可能对其基于人工智能的方法及其未来定期提供更多收入的潜力做出更明确的判断。</p>
<p>在那之前，它不可能成为巴菲特的股票。但从长远来看，如果它能够实现今天所宣称的内容，它仍然很有可能符合沃伦的严格标准。</p>

RXRX

<p>Recursion Pharmaceuticals（Recursion Pharmaceuticals）是一家从事人工智能辅助药物研发的生物科技公司，由于其高昂的研发费用和缺乏稳定的收入，通常不是沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）青睐的股票。尽管面临这些挑战，Recursion 的创新平台可能为其提供增长路径，包括开发新药物、与大型制药公司合作以及授权其技术。最近与 Exscientia 的合并可能带来重要的临床试验见解，有望在未来几年重新评估其投资吸引力。然而，其当前的研发费用远远超过收入，这引起了像巴菲特这样的传统投资者的担忧</p>

<p><strong>Recursion Pharmaceuticals</strong>(RXRX 0.54%) doesn't look like a stock that legendary investor Warren Buffett would usually be interested in. It's in the biotech industry, which tends to be volatile and often difficult to understand, without significant recurring revenue or any profits for many of the newer stocks in the sector. To complicate matters further, Recursion is engaged in the emerging field of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled drug discovery and development, which means it lacks any of the long history of consistent performance that Buffett typically looks for in an investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Recursion Pharmaceuticals</strong>(RXRX 0.54%) 看起来并不像传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特通常会感兴趣的股票。它处于生物技术行业，这一行业往往波动较大，很难理解，许多新股票在该行业中没有稳定的收入或利润。更进一步复杂化的是，Recursion 从事新兴领域的人工智能（AI）驱动药物发现和开发，这意味着它缺乏巴菲特通常在投资中寻找的长期稳定表现历史。</p>
</div><p>But, if the company achieves its ambitions, it could become something a lot closer to what the Oracle of Omaha prefers. Here's why it's possible and how it can happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，如果该公司实现其雄心壮志，它可能会变得更接近奥马哈神谷的偏好。以下是可能性及实现方式。</p>
</div><h2>Getting around this one sticking point is part of the plan</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>克服这一障碍是计划的一部分</h2>
</div><p>Traditionally, Buffett doesn't favor businesses that need to spend a big proportion of their revenue on research and development (R&amp;D) expenses. High R&amp;D costs imply that the company doesn't have a strong enough competitive advantage with which to protect its market share from competitors. After all, if it needs to constantly improve its products or invent new ones to maintain earnings growth, it could only be a matter of time before the engine of innovation sputters out and leaves investors wanting growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>传统上，巴菲特不青睐需要将大部分收入用于研发费用的企业。高昂的研发成本意味着公司没有足够强大的竞争优势来保护其市场份额免受竞争对手的侵蚀。毕竟，如果公司需要不断改进其产品或发明新产品以维持盈利增长，创新引擎最终可能会停滞，让投资者期待增长的愿望落空。</p>
</div><p>That's part of the reason why he rarely invests in biopharmaceutical companies like Recursion. Even the best pharma players tend to spend a large proportion of their revenue on R&amp;D, and they're far from immune to experiencing costly setbacks that disrupt the growth that shareholders had penciled in. In fact, Buffett currently doesn't hold any pharma stocks whatsoever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这部分是他很少投资于像 Recursion 这样的生物制药公司的原因之一。即使是最好的制药公司也往往将大部分收入用于研发，并且它们很难免于遭遇昂贵的挫折，打乱了股东们预期的增长。事实上，巴菲特目前根本不持有任何制药股。</p>
</div><p>However, Recursion's vision is to at least partially solve this issue at the root via both its technical innovations in drug development and its business model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Recursion 的愿景至少部分解决了这一根本问题，通过其在药物开发技术和商业模式方面的创新。</p>
</div><p>The biotech's claim to fame is its drug discovery and development platform, which heavily relies on AI, machine learning, and reams of specialized data. The point of using AI is that it can help management select and optimize the most promising candidate molecules to advance through each phase of the preclinical research process, supposedly cutting down on late-stage failures while saving money and time along the way. Ideally, its platform also translates into better clinical trial data and faster progression toward commercialization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家生物技术公司的成名之作是其药物发现和开发平台，该平台严重依赖人工智能、机器学习和大量专业数据。使用人工智能的目的在于帮助管理层选择和优化最有前途的候选分子，推进每个临床前研究阶段，据称可以减少后期失败，同时节省资金和时间。理想情况下，其平台还能转化为更好的临床试验数据，并加快向商业化的进展。</p>
</div><p>The jury is still out regarding whether Recursion can actually deliver those improvements over the traditional drug development approach. Still, if it does, it'll realize three distinct avenues for growth. The first is to simply develop new drugs and commercialize them on its own, whereas the second is to partner with big pharmas that want to use its platform for their own purposes, and the third is to license out access to its platform or its data trove.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于 Recursion 是否能够真正实现这些改进，目前尚无定论。但是，如果它能够实现，它将实现三种不同的增长途径。第一种是简单地开发新药并自行商业化，而第二种是与希望利用其平台进行合作的大型制药公司合作，第三种是授权使用其平台或数据宝库的访问权限。</p>
</div><p>And that's where Buffett's ears could start to perk up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是巴菲特可能开始感兴趣的地方。</p>
</div><p>Licensing out access to a platform is a very low-cost way of generating revenue, and if customers are consistently deriving value from gaining access, it would point to the presence of a competitive advantage via slashing biopharma R&amp;D costs. Furthermore, if collaborators are willing to fork over a lot of milestone payments to get more hands-on help from Recursion, there's a high chance that they'll also be willing to sign on the dotted line for the biotech to earn significant royalties from any medicines produced by the collaborations -- another low-cost revenue stream.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>授权使用平台是一种非常低成本的收入生成方式，如果客户持续从获取访问权限中获得价值，这将表明通过削减生物制药研发成本来获得竞争优势。此外，如果合作伙伴愿意支付大量里程碑费用以获得 Recursion 更多实质性帮助，他们也很可能愿意签署协议，让这家生物技术公司从合作中生产的任何药物中获得重要的版税，这是另一种低成本的收入流。</p>
</div><p>Finally, if -- and this is a big if -- Recursion can genuinely reduce the failure rate of its own pipeline projects compared to competitors by using its platform, it might even be able to commercialize medicines regularly enough to satisfy Buffett's desire for stable earnings growth over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，如果 Recursion 能够真正通过其平台降低自身管线项目的失败率，相比竞争对手，它甚至可能能够定期商业化药物，以满足巴菲特对长期稳定盈利增长的愿望。</p>
</div><h2>This biotech isn't in its final form yet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这家生物技术公司还没有达到最终形态</h2>
</div><p>Time for a quick reality check. Per its Q2 earnings published on Aug. 8, Recursion's R&amp;D expenses were $73.9 million, and its revenue was just $14.4 million. That puts its R&amp;D expenses at more than 513% of its quarterly revenue, which is a ratio that Buffett would almost certainly find disqualifying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是时候进行一个快速的现实检查了。根据其于 8 月 8 日发布的第二季度财报，Recursion 的研发费用为 7390 万美元，而其收入仅为 1440 万美元。这使其研发费用超过其季度收入的 513%，这是一个比率，巴菲特几乎肯定会认为不合格。</p>
</div><p>Still, a lot could change over the next few years. Recursion is merging with <strong>Exscientia</strong>, another leading AI-enabled biotech pursuing new approaches to drug development, and between the two of them, it expects to report around 10 clinical trial readouts over the next 18 months. Each of those readouts is a (small) piece of evidence that could swing in favor or against Recursion's thesis about the effectiveness of its platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在未来几年内可能会发生很多变化。Recursion 正在与另一家领先的人工智能生物技术公司 Exscientia 合并，两家公司预计在未来 18 个月内报告约 10 个临床试验结果。每个试验结果都是对 Recursion 关于其平台有效性的论点的（小）证据，可能有利也可能不利。</p>
</div><p>Within the next four years, it could get as many as four of its pipeline programs approved for sale. That means it should be possible within five years to make a more definitive judgment about the merits of its AI-based approach and its potential to deliver more revenue on a regular basis in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在接下来的四年内，它可能会获得多达四个管线项目的销售批准。这意味着在未来五年内，有可能对其基于人工智能的方法及其未来定期提供更多收入的潜力做出更明确的判断。</p>
</div><p>Until then, it can't be a Buffett stock. But in the long run, if it delivers what it claims it has today, it's still quite possible that it'd meet Warren's stringent specifications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在那之前，它不可能成为巴菲特的股票。但从长远来看，如果它能够实现今天所宣称的内容，它仍然很有可能符合沃伦的严格标准。</p>
</div>

Recursion Pharmaceuticals 是沃伦·巴菲特持有的股票吗？