<p><strong>Opendoor</strong>(OPEN -1.87%) 在 2024 年迄今下跌了 53%，更有趣的是，大多数房地产科技股，如 <strong>Zillow</strong> 和 <strong>Redfin</strong>，表现要好得多。</p>
<p>此外，Opendoor 最近公布的第二季度业绩超过了管理层预期的最高水平。因此，随着美联储准备开始降息，以及普遍乐观情绪认为房地产市场即将回暖，现在是买入 Opendoor 的绝佳时机吗？</p>
<h2>Opendoor 强劲的第二季度数据</h2>
<p>尽管房地产市场持续疲软，Opendoor 在第二季度取得了令人印象深刻的业绩。公司购买了 4,771 套房屋，同比增长了 78%，远远高于其预期。它卖出了 4,078 套房屋，因此略微增加了库存。</p>
<p>此外，贡献率，这是一个考虑将房屋保留在资产负债表上的成本的盈利能力指标，达到了 6.3%，远高于公司预期的 5.4% 到 5.7% 范围。根据调整后的 EBITDA 基础，Opendoor 在本季度亏损了 500 万美元，远远好于预期的 3000 万美元亏损。</p>
<h2>强劲数据并非唯一关键</h2>
<p>乍一看，这些数据可能看起来非常强劲。而事实确实如此。但第二季度业绩报告中最重要的部分并不是第二季度发生了什么，而是未来的预期。</p>
<p>在致股东的信中，Opendoor 的管理层表示，公司在六月份看到了意外的价格软化，并且公司为了达到销售目标增加了房屋价格下调。</p>
<p>简言之，Opendoor 预计第三季度将比许多人预期的要弱，而该指引似乎表明公司在本应是房屋销售旺季的中途正在退步。</p>
<p>中间点的营收指引为 125 亿美元，将代表大约 17% 的环比下降。更重要的是，贡献率预计将从可接受的 6.5% 下降到 2.9% 到 3.5% 的糟糕水平。因此，调整后的 EBITDA 亏损预计将扩大到 6000 万到 7000 万美元，这是与上一季度的 500 万美元亏损相比的巨大增长。</p>
<h2>最终结论</h2>
<p>公平地说，Opendoor 的管理层明确指出，其第三季度指引是基于当前信息。尽管第三季度可能确实是一步后退，无论美联储做出什么决定或表态——毕竟，我们已经进入了第三季度的两个月——降息可能会成为 Opendoor 的有利因素。此外，拥有约 12 亿美元资本，包括约 8 亿美元现金，Opendoor 当然有灵活性度过一个或两个艰难的季度。</p>
<p>然而，除非利率大幅下降并且交易量急剧增加，否则该业务可能难以向投资者展示通往盈利的真正路径。即便如此，这可能也是一场艰苦的斗争。管理层确实在充分利用糟糕的房地产环境，但在投资之前，我需要看到更清晰的盈利路径，更重要的是，在比第三季度指引所示的市场发展缓慢的情况下，数字的稳定性。</p>

OPEN

<p>尽管 Opendoor 在 2024 年第二季度取得了超出预期的业绩，但股价仍下跌了 53%。公司报告显示，房屋购买量增加了 78%，贡献毛利率达到 6.3%，超过了预期。然而，管理层预计第三季度将较弱，预计收入和利润率将大幅下降，原因是意外的价格下降。尽管降低的利率可能有利于 Opendoor，但盈利清晰路径的需求仍然存在。投资者可能会谨慎对待，因为根据最近的指引，公司未来的稳定性似乎存在不确定性</p>

<p><strong>Opendoor</strong>(OPEN -1.87%) is down by 53% so far in 2024, and what makes this even more interesting is that most real estate technology stocks, such as <strong>Zillow</strong> and <strong>Redfin</strong>, are performing far better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Opendoor</strong>(OPEN -1.87%) 在 2024 年迄今下跌了 53%，更有趣的是，大多数房地产科技股，如 <strong>Zillow</strong> 和 <strong>Redfin</strong>，表现要好得多。</p>
</div><p>What's more, Opendoor recently reported second-quarter results that surpassed even the high end of management's expectations. So with the Federal Reserve set to start lowering interest rates, and a general sense of optimism that the housing market is about to pick up steam, is now a great time to buy Opendoor while it's so beaten down?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Opendoor 最近公布的第二季度业绩超过了管理层预期的最高水平。因此，随着美联储准备开始降息，以及普遍乐观情绪认为房地产市场即将回暖，现在是买入 Opendoor 的绝佳时机吗？</p>
</div><h2>Opendoor's strong second-quarter numbers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Opendoor 强劲的第二季度数据</h2>
</div><p>Despite a persistently sluggish real estate market, Opendoor delivered impressive results in the second quarter. The company bought 4,771 homes, up 78% year over year and significantly higher than its guidance called for. It sold 4,078 homes, so it built its inventory a bit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管房地产市场持续疲软，Opendoor 在第二季度取得了令人印象深刻的业绩。公司购买了 4,771 套房屋，同比增长了 78%，远远高于其预期。它卖出了 4,078 套房屋，因此略微增加了库存。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, contribution margin, a profitability metric that takes into account the costs of holding a home on the balance sheet, came in at 6.3%, well above the 5.4% to 5.7% range the company had guided for. On an adjusted EBITDA basis, Opendoor lost $5 million for the quarter, far better than the expected loss of $30 million at the midpoint of guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，贡献率，这是一个考虑将房屋保留在资产负债表上的成本的盈利能力指标，达到了 6.3%，远高于公司预期的 5.4% 到 5.7% 范围。根据调整后的 EBITDA 基础，Opendoor 在本季度亏损了 500 万美元，远远好于预期的 3000 万美元亏损。</p>
</div><h2>It wasn't just about the strong numbers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>强劲数据并非唯一关键</h2>
</div><p>At first glance, these numbers might seem very strong. And they were. But the most significant part of the second-quarter earnings report wasn't what happened in the second quarter. It's what is expected in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乍一看，这些数据可能看起来非常强劲。而事实确实如此。但第二季度业绩报告中最重要的部分并不是第二季度发生了什么，而是未来的预期。</p>
</div><p>In its letter to shareholders, Opendoor's management said the company saw unexpected price softness in June, and that the company had increased home-level price drops in response, to meet sales goals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在致股东的信中，Opendoor 的管理层表示，公司在六月份看到了意外的价格软化，并且公司为了达到销售目标增加了房屋价格下调。</p>
</div><p>In a nutshell, Opendoor expects the third quarter to be significantly weaker than many had expected, and the guidance seems as if the company is taking a step backward in the middle of what should be a seasonally active quarter for home sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简言之，Opendoor 预计第三季度将比许多人预期的要弱，而该指引似乎表明公司在本应是房屋销售旺季的中途正在退步。</p>
</div><p>Revenue guidance of $1.25 billion at the midpoint would represent a roughly 17% sequential decline. More significantly, contribution margin is expected to fall from an acceptable 6.5% to an abysmal 2.9% to 3.5%. As a result, the adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to widen to $60 million to $70 million, a <em>big</em> jump from this past quarter's $5 million loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中间点的营收指引为 125 亿美元，将代表大约 17% 的环比下降。更重要的是，贡献率预计将从可接受的 6.5% 下降到 2.9% 到 3.5% 的糟糕水平。因此，调整后的 EBITDA 亏损预计将扩大到 6000 万到 7000 万美元，这是与上一季度的 500 万美元亏损相比的巨大增长。</p>
</div><h2>The bottom line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最终结论</h2>
</div><p>To be fair, Opendoor's management specifically pointed out that its third-quarter guidance was based on <em>current</em> information. And while the third quarter may indeed be a step backward, regardless of what the Fed does or says -- after all, we're already two months into it -- it's entirely possible that falling interest rates could be a tailwind for Opendoor. Plus, with about $1.2 billion in capital, including about $800 million in cash, Opendoor certainly has the flexibility to get through a rough quarter or two.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，Opendoor 的管理层明确指出，其第三季度指引是基于当前信息。尽管第三季度可能确实是一步后退，无论美联储做出什么决定或表态——毕竟，我们已经进入了第三季度的两个月——降息可能会成为 Opendoor 的有利因素。此外，拥有约 12 亿美元资本，包括约 8 亿美元现金，Opendoor 当然有灵活性度过一个或两个艰难的季度。</p>
</div><p>However, the business could struggle to show investors a true path to profitability unless rates fall by a significant amount <em>and</em> volume picks up sharply. Even then, it could be an uphill battle. Management is certainly doing a good job making the best of a terrible real estate environment, but before investing I would need to see a clearer path to profitability, and more importantly, more stability in the numbers in a slower-than-expected market than the third-quarter guidance indicates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，除非利率大幅下降并且交易量急剧增加，否则该业务可能难以向投资者展示通往盈利的真正路径。即便如此，这可能也是一场艰苦的斗争。管理层确实在充分利用糟糕的房地产环境，但在投资之前，我需要看到更清晰的盈利路径，更重要的是，在比第三季度指引所示的市场发展缓慢的情况下，数字的稳定性。</p>
</div>

Opendoor 在 2024 年迄今为止下跌了 53%。在美联储开始降息之前，它是否值得买入？