<p>电动汽车（EV）初创公司提供了引人注目的投资机会，随着从汽油车到电动车的转变在长期内加速。这一论点自许多汽车制造商如 <strong>Lucid Group</strong>（纳斯达克：LCID）在 2021 年中期作为 SPAC 合并的一部分上市以来就一直存在。</p>
<p>不幸的是，增长故事并没有如预期那样发展。像 Lucid 这样的公司在车辆开发和交付方面面临着重大挑战，随着市场对 EV 过渡的不确定性增加，人们担心消费者的极限支出可能导致进一步的利润压力。对于像 Lucid 这样仍在大举投入生产的公司来说，每生产一辆车就损失大量资金可能导致一场死亡螺旋。看起来市场上许多人相信这可能是情况，因为 LCID 股票已经从之前的高点下跌了超过 90%。</p>
<p>这并不是说这支股票在短期内表现不佳。从年初至今，Lucid 的股价基本持平，并且从四月的低点上涨了近一倍。</p>
<p>那么，Lucid 在未来五年破产的可能性有多大？让我们讨论一下。</p>
<h2>本文要点：</h2>
<ul>
<li>Lucid 是众多投资者密切关注的早期 EV 制造商之一，随着电动汽车领域的市场动态持续变化。</li>
<li>让我们深入探讨 Lucid 在未来五年内是否仍然存在，以及投资者对这支股票未来的看法。</li>
<li>如果您正在寻找一些潜力巨大的股票，请务必获取我们全新的 “下一个英伟达” 报告的免费副本。它介绍了一家我们确信具有 10 倍潜力的软件公司。</li>
</ul>
<h2>Lucid 应对其重大问题的临时解决方案</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/imageForEntry16-O0t-scaled.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/imageForEntry16-O0t-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>展厅内的 Lucid Air 车辆，旁观者正在观察车辆</p>
<p>Lucid 继续面临着加快车辆生产以在其手头现金正式用尽之前实现盈利的挑战。凭借 39 亿美元的现金和沙特阿拉伯 PIF 的 15 亿美元，Lucid 可以安全度过 18 个月。然而，长期成功取决于停止现金流失，尽管最近投资者情绪积极。</p>
<p>公司持续的现金流失引发了对长期股票价值的担忧。虽然公司可以通过债务或股份稀释筹集资金，但这两种选择都会对股东产生负面影响。如果已经向 Lucid 投资了 70 亿美元的沙特阿拉伯 PIF 决定停止资助该公司，Lucid 的生存可能会受到威胁。因此，即使公司最终蓬勃发展，投资者在当前水平上向这支股票注入新资本，其投资收益可能会受到限制。</p>
<p>Lucid 无疑是承担着重大风险的 EV 股票之一，持续的稀释和沙特阿拉伯支持可能丧失是主要关注点。尽管公司声称拥有卓越的技术（我喜欢他们的车辆外观，尤其是内饰），但在生产方面，该公司远远落后于特斯拉等行业领导者。即使 Lucid 幸存下来，实现所需的长期增长以获得可观回报仍然不确定，这使其成为一项风险投资。</p>
<p>在第二季度，Lucid 交付了 2,394 辆车，较去年同期增长了 70%。这反映在交付了 2,110 辆车，Lucid 管理团队的目标是年底达到 9,000 辆。营收同比增长 33% 至 2.05 亿美元，但尽管取得了进展，上半年的运营亏损达到 15 亿美元令人担忧。尽管这个净亏损大大改善于公司去年报告的 16 亿美元亏损，但运营中使用的净现金为 10 亿美元，低于 15 亿美元。</p>
<h2>Lucid CEO 保持乐观</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/thinkstockphotos-104772810.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/thinkstockphotos-104772810.jpg"/></p>
<p>一个突出显示 “乐观主义者” 和 “悲观主义者” 字样的路标</p>
<p>Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson 确实在车辆发布方面推崇新颖性，具有与竞争对手不同的各种功能。Lucid 的 Gravity SUV 代表了一个肯定引人注目的概念，是许多看涨者确信将在市场上获得成功的产品。</p>
<p>这款电动汽车现在正处于验证阶段，跟随公司的 Air Sedan 上市。以其令人印象深刻的续航里程而闻名，Air 在单次充电时提供超过 500 英里的行驶里程。没有任何大规模的 EV 制造商能够达到这一性能。</p>
<p>不幸的是，Air Grand Touring 版本的原始售价超过 11 万美元，但更实惠的 69,900 美元的 Air Pure 版本可能会在注重成本的消费者中获得更多市场份额。这款车拥有 420 英里的续航里程，在同类车型中效率最高。所以，价格还算不错。</p>
<p>我认为 Lucid 需要继续适当地向正确的群体推广其车辆，并从现有车主口口相传中获得动力。就像特斯拉和 Rivian 一样，他们受益于强大的草根支持，投资于这家公司依赖于消费者的长期积极趋势，以及一些有利的长期增长趋势。</p>
<p>目前确实有理由对 Lucid 持乐观态度，但问题是投资者除了产品本身之外如何看待这家公司。</p>
<h2>最好现在避开 LCID 股票</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/shutterstock_2239822283-scaled.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/shutterstock_2239822283-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>股价走低的股票图表</p>
<p>历史上有许多失败的电动汽车初创公司。也许最突出的最近一个有前途的早期电动汽车公司破产的例子是 Fisker。虽然 Lucid 得到了沙特的支持和大量现金，这应该足够支撑几年，但确实存在生产问题和其他可能出现的问题。基本上，如果沙特 PIF 从这个项目撤资，大多数投资者会认为故事已经结束。</p>
<p>试图评估任何公司破产的可能性都是困难的。我会说 Lucid 拥有一款吸引人的高端产品。但考虑到市场上出现的各种衰退信号，我不确定 Lucid 是否能在持续时间较长的衰退（比如两三年）中生存下来，这种衰退会消灭对高价电动汽车的消费需求。我认为 Lucid 在未来五年内要么破产，要么蓬勃发展的几率是五五开，所以一些投资者可能希望谨慎对待这只股票。</p>
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<p>本文来源于 24/7 Wall St.，关于 Lucid 在未来 5 年内破产的可能性。</p>

LCID

<p>Lucid Group（纳斯达克：LCID）在扩大生产规模和保持盈利能力方面面临着重大挑战，股价下跌超过 90%。尽管获得了临时资金支持并保持交付稳定，但对现金流耗尽和对沙特阿拉伯 PIF 资金依赖的担忧仍然存在。尽管 Lucid 首席执行官保持乐观态度，但在激烈竞争中实现长期增长使其成为一项风险投资。该公司报告显示营收增长 33%，但仍持续出现运营亏损，引发对其未来五年财务可持续性的质疑</p>

<p>Electric vehicle (EV) start-ups offer compelling investment opportunities as the shift from gasoline vehicles accelerates over the long-term. That’s been the thesis since many automakers, such as <strong>Lucid Group</strong> (NASDAQ:LCID) went public in mid-2021 as part of a SPAC merger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动汽车（EV）初创公司提供了引人注目的投资机会，随着从汽油车到电动车的转变在长期内加速。这一论点自许多汽车制造商如 <strong>Lucid Group</strong>（纳斯达克：LCID）在 2021 年中期作为 SPAC 合并的一部分上市以来就一直存在。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, the growth story hasn’t quite played out as expected. Companies like Lucid have faced significant challenges in vehicle development and deliveries, with market uncertainty with respect to the EV transition adding to worries that a tapped-out consumer could lead to further margin pressures. For companies like Lucid that are still spending heavily to ramp up production, losing a significant amount of money on each vehicle produced can lead to a death spiral. It appears many in the market believe that this could be the case, given that LCID stock has lost more than 90% of its value from its previous peaks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，增长故事并没有如预期那样发展。像 Lucid 这样的公司在车辆开发和交付方面面临着重大挑战，随着市场对 EV 过渡的不确定性增加，人们担心消费者的极限支出可能导致进一步的利润压力。对于像 Lucid 这样仍在大举投入生产的公司来说，每生产一辆车就损失大量资金可能导致一场死亡螺旋。看起来市场上许多人相信这可能是情况，因为 LCID 股票已经从之前的高点下跌了超过 90%。</p>
</div><p>That’s not to say this stock hasn’t performed well over near-term time frames. On a year-to-date basis, Lucid’s stock price has traded roughly flat, and nearly doubled from its April low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是说这支股票在短期内表现不佳。从年初至今，Lucid 的股价基本持平，并且从四月的低点上涨了近一倍。</p>
</div><p>So, just how likely is it that Lucid goes bankrupt over the next five years? Let’s discuss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，Lucid 在未来五年破产的可能性有多大？让我们讨论一下。</p>
</div><h2>Key Points About This Article:</h2>
<ul>
<li>Lucid is among the early-stage EV makers many investors are watching closely as market dynamics continue to shift in the world of electric vehicles.</li>
<li>Let’s dive into the probability Lucid is still around in five years, and what investors may want to make of this stock moving forward.</li>
<li>If you’re looking for some stocks with huge potential, make sure to grab a free copy of our <strong>brand-new “The Next NVIDIA” report</strong>. It features a software stock we’re confident has 10X potential.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>本文要点：</h2>
<ul>
<li>Lucid 是众多投资者密切关注的早期 EV 制造商之一，随着电动汽车领域的市场动态持续变化。</li>
<li>让我们深入探讨 Lucid 在未来五年内是否仍然存在，以及投资者对这支股票未来的看法。</li>
<li>如果您正在寻找一些潜力巨大的股票，请务必获取我们全新的 “下一个英伟达” 报告的免费副本。它介绍了一家我们确信具有 10 倍潜力的软件公司。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Lucid’s Temporary Solutions to Its Big Problems</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lucid 应对其重大问题的临时解决方案</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/imageForEntry16-O0t-scaled.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/imageForEntry16-O0t-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>A Lucid Air vehicle in a showroom with onlookers observing the vehicle</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展厅内的 Lucid Air 车辆，旁观者正在观察车辆</p>
</div><p>Lucid continues to face the challenge of ramping up vehicle production to reach profitability before its cash on hand officially is depleted. With $3.9 billion in cash, plus $1.5 billion from Saudi Arabia’s PIF, Lucid is secure for 18 months. However, long-term success hinges on halting its cash burn, despite recent positive investor sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lucid 继续面临着加快车辆生产以在其手头现金正式用尽之前实现盈利的挑战。凭借 39 亿美元的现金和沙特阿拉伯 PIF 的 15 亿美元，Lucid 可以安全度过 18 个月。然而，长期成功取决于停止现金流失，尽管最近投资者情绪积极。</p>
</div><p>The company’s ongoing cash burn raises concerns about long-term stock value. While the company can raise funds through debt or share dilution, both options negatively impact shareholders. If Saudi Arabia’s PIF, which has invested $7 billion in Lucid decides to stop funding the company, Lucid’s survival could be at risk. Thus, there’s the real likelihood that investor gains could be limited for investors who put fresh capital to work in this stock at current levels, even if the company eventually thrives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司持续的现金流失引发了对长期股票价值的担忧。虽然公司可以通过债务或股份稀释筹集资金，但这两种选择都会对股东产生负面影响。如果已经向 Lucid 投资了 70 亿美元的沙特阿拉伯 PIF 决定停止资助该公司，Lucid 的生存可能会受到威胁。因此，即使公司最终蓬勃发展，投资者在当前水平上向这支股票注入新资本，其投资收益可能会受到限制。</p>
</div><p>Lucid is certainly among the EV stocks that carry significant risk, with ongoing dilution and the potential loss of Saudi Arabia’s support as major concerns. While the company claims superior technology (and I like the look of their vehicles, particularly the interiors), the company lags far behind industry leaders such as Tesla in terms of production. Even if Lucid survives, achieving the long-term growth needed for substantial returns remains uncertain, making it a risky investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lucid 无疑是承担着重大风险的 EV 股票之一，持续的稀释和沙特阿拉伯支持可能丧失是主要关注点。尽管公司声称拥有卓越的技术（我喜欢他们的车辆外观，尤其是内饰），但在生产方面，该公司远远落后于特斯拉等行业领导者。即使 Lucid 幸存下来，实现所需的长期增长以获得可观回报仍然不确定，这使其成为一项风险投资。</p>
</div><p>In Q2, Lucid delivered 2,394 vehicles, marking a 70% increase from the previous year. This was reflected in deliveries of 2,110 vehicles, with Lucid’s management team aiming for 9,000 by year-end. Revenue rose 33% year-over-year to $200.5 million, but despite this progress, its operational losses of $1.5 billion for the first half of the year is concerning. Although this net loss was greatly improved from the $1.6 billion loss the company reported last year, net cash used in operations is at $1 billion, down from $1.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度，Lucid 交付了 2,394 辆车，较去年同期增长了 70%。这反映在交付了 2,110 辆车，Lucid 管理团队的目标是年底达到 9,000 辆。营收同比增长 33% 至 2.05 亿美元，但尽管取得了进展，上半年的运营亏损达到 15 亿美元令人担忧。尽管这个净亏损大大改善于公司去年报告的 16 亿美元亏损，但运营中使用的净现金为 10 亿美元，低于 15 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Lucid CEO Remains Optimistic</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lucid CEO 保持乐观</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/thinkstockphotos-104772810.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/thinkstockphotos-104772810.jpg"/></p>
<p>A road sign highlighting the words “optimists” and “pessimists”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个突出显示 “乐观主义者” 和 “悲观主义者” 字样的路标</p>
</div><p>Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson has certainly pushed for novelty with his car launches, with various sets of features that differ from the competition. Lucid’s Gravity SUV represents a concept that’s certainly intriguing, and is a product that many bulls remain confident will gain traction in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson 确实在车辆发布方面推崇新颖性，具有与竞争对手不同的各种功能。Lucid 的 Gravity SUV 代表了一个肯定引人注目的概念，是许多看涨者确信将在市场上获得成功的产品。</p>
</div><p>This EV is now in its verification phase, and follows the company’s Air Sedan to market. Known for its impressive range, the Air has won a number of awards in terms of quality, offering more than 500 miles on a single charge. No large-scale EV maker cones close to this performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这款电动汽车现在正处于验证阶段，跟随公司的 Air Sedan 上市。以其令人印象深刻的续航里程而闻名，Air 在单次充电时提供超过 500 英里的行驶里程。没有任何大规模的 EV 制造商能够达到这一性能。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, original price tags for the Air with Grand Touring trim came in at more than $110,000, but the more affordable $69,900 Air Pure could gain more traction among cost-conscious consumers. This vehicle sports 420 miles of range, and is among the most efficient in its class. So, still not bad for the price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，Air Grand Touring 版本的原始售价超过 11 万美元，但更实惠的 69,900 美元的 Air Pure 版本可能会在注重成本的消费者中获得更多市场份额。这款车拥有 420 英里的续航里程，在同类车型中效率最高。所以，价格还算不错。</p>
</div><p>I think Lucid will need to continue to market its vehicles appropriately to the right group, and see traction from word of mouth from existing owners. Much like Tesla and Rivian, who have benefited from strong grassroots support, investing in this company banks on longer-term positive trends from consumers, as well as some beneficial secular growth trends as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为 Lucid 需要继续适当地向正确的群体推广其车辆，并从现有车主口口相传中获得动力。就像特斯拉和 Rivian 一样，他们受益于强大的草根支持，投资于这家公司依赖于消费者的长期积极趋势，以及一些有利的长期增长趋势。</p>
</div><p>There are certainly reasons to be optimistic about Lucid right now, but the question is just how investors will view the company aside from the product itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前确实有理由对 Lucid 持乐观态度，但问题是投资者除了产品本身之外如何看待这家公司。</p>
</div><h2>Best Avoid LCID Stock Right Now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最好现在避开 LCID 股票</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/shutterstock_2239822283-scaled.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/shutterstock_2239822283-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>A stock chart heading lower</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价走低的股票图表</p>
</div><p>History is riddled with a great number of failed EV startups. Perhaps the most prominent recent example of an early-stage EV company with promise that went bankrupt is Fisker. And while Lucid has Saudi backing and significant cash which should suffice for a couple years, there really are production concerns and other issues which could come to the fore. Basically, if the Saudi PIF pulls funding from this project, most investors would consider the story over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上有许多失败的电动汽车初创公司。也许最突出的最近一个有前途的早期电动汽车公司破产的例子是 Fisker。虽然 Lucid 得到了沙特的支持和大量现金，这应该足够支撑几年，但确实存在生产问题和其他可能出现的问题。基本上，如果沙特 PIF 从这个项目撤资，大多数投资者会认为故事已经结束。</p>
</div><p>Trying to handicap the likelihood of bankruptcy with any company is difficult. I will say that Lucid has a premium product that’s attractive. But given the various recessionary flags we’re seeing in the market, it’s unclear to me if Lucid can survive a prolonged recession (say two or three years) which wipes out consumer demand for higher-priced EVs. I’d say there’s a 50/50 chance Lucid either goes bankrupt or thrives over the next five years, so this is a stock some investors may want to play cautiously from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>试图评估任何公司破产的可能性都是困难的。我会说 Lucid 拥有一款吸引人的高端产品。但考虑到市场上出现的各种衰退信号，我不确定 Lucid 是否能在持续时间较长的衰退（比如两三年）中生存下来，这种衰退会消灭对高价电动汽车的消费需求。我认为 Lucid 在未来五年内要么破产，要么蓬勃发展的几率是五五开，所以一些投资者可能希望谨慎对待这只股票。</p>
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</div><p>The post Here Are the Odds Lucid Goes Bankrupt in the Next 5 Years appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文来源于 24/7 Wall St.，关于 Lucid 在未来 5 年内破产的可能性。</p>
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Lucid 在未来五年内破产的几率