<p>在新股上市时立即跳进购买一只时髦新股的机会可能很诱人。但是，<strong>Dutch Bros</strong>(BROS 2.21%) 自首次公开募股（IPO）以来股价下跌约 40%，这就是为什么耐心等待可能更值得的一个例子。让我们深入了解一下这家创新咖啡连锁店在未来五年甚至更长时间内是否能够复苏。</p>
<h2>Dutch Bros 是什么？</h2>
<p>尽管许多美国人最近才开始熟悉 Dutch Bros，但它并不是一家新公司。这家以便利为重点的驶入式咖啡连锁店成立于 1992 年的俄勒冈州，然后逐渐扩展到美国西部。在上市后，它的扩张计划加速进行，旨在与 <strong>星巴克</strong>、<strong>Dunkin' Brands</strong> 和 <strong>餐厅品牌国际</strong> 旗下的 Tim Hortons 等老牌竞争对手竞争。</p>
<p>尽管看起来很简单，但咖啡行业并不适合软弱的人。一些专家估计，62% 的独立咖啡店在开业的头五年就会倒闭。Dutch Bros 从其谦卑的开始发展成为一个半国家连锁店（在 18 个州拥有 912 家门店）的历程，这说明了它对消费者的价值主张。</p>
<p>与星巴克不同，星巴克呈现出一个舒适的第三空间，人们可以在那里完成工作，而 Dutch Bros 则专注于速度和便利。它的门店只有驶入式。但它在周到友好的员工和个性化客户体验方面取得了平衡。</p>
<p>但也许最重要的是，Dutch Bros 并不针对咖啡行家。其菜单拥有各种饮品，从甜蜜的能量饮料到波霸奶茶、奶昔和冰沙，适合喜欢独特口味组合的消费者。</p>
<h2>为什么股票表现不佳？</h2>
<p>Dutch Bros 第二季度营收同比增长 30%，达到 3.249 亿美元，受到 36 家新店开业（达到 912 家）和适度的同店销售增长的推动。营业收入增长 64%，达到 3.22 亿美元。该公司的奖励计划受到了极大的兴趣，消费者可以通过符合条件的购买获得免费饮品。</p>
<p>会员在该期间占所有交易的惊人 67%，这表明这可能成为忠诚度和留存的关键驱动因素。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODg3OTQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM1ODA0OTg2My5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODg3OTQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM1ODA0OTg2My5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>尽管 Dutch Bros 似乎具备可持续成功的所有要素，但这并没有使其公开股票成为一个好的投资。最大的问题似乎是过度估值。尽管股价已从历史最高价 76 美元大幅下跌，但在我看来，市场仍然以溢价定价股票，前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 75。</p>
<p>为了更好理解，<strong>标普 500</strong> 指数的前瞻估计仅为 23，而类似的股票如星巴克或 <strong>瑞幸咖啡</strong> 的前瞻市盈率分别为 24 和 18。虽然成长型公司以溢价交易是正常的，但 Dutch Bros 目前的业绩似乎并不能证明其股票的高价值。</p>
<h2>未来五年可能会发生什么？</h2>
<p>尽管根据预计的未来 12 个月收益，Dutch Bros 看起来被高估了，但在未来几年可能会发生变化。与类似的咖啡连锁店不同，Dutch Bros 仍然相对较小。该公司可以通过在美国乃至全球推出其经过验证的战略来开拓一个巨大的可寻址市场。投资者可以因为其明显未开发的潜力而对这只昂贵的股票宽容一些。</p>

BROS

<p>荷兰兄弟公司自首次公开募股以来股价已下跌 40%，凸显了投资者需要耐心等待的重要性。这家成立于 1992 年的驶入式咖啡连锁店已扩张至 912 家门店，但面临着激烈的竞争。尽管营收增长强劲，但其股票被认为是被高估的，目前市盈率为 75，而标普 500 指数为 23。然而，其扩张计划和独特的市场定位可能在未来五年内提供复苏的潜力</p>

<p>It can be tempting to jump on the chance to buy a hip new stock as soon as it hits public markets. But with shares down around 40% since its initial public offering (IPO), <strong>Dutch Bros</strong>(BROS 2.21%) is an example of why it can pay to be more patient. Let's dig deeper to see if this innovative coffee chain can recover over the next half-decade and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新股上市时立即跳进购买一只时髦新股的机会可能很诱人。但是，<strong>Dutch Bros</strong>(BROS 2.21%) 自首次公开募股（IPO）以来股价下跌约 40%，这就是为什么耐心等待可能更值得的一个例子。让我们深入了解一下这家创新咖啡连锁店在未来五年甚至更长时间内是否能够复苏。</p>
</div><h2>What is Dutch Bros?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Dutch Bros 是什么？</h2>
</div><p>Although many Americans have just recently become familiar with it, Dutch Bros is far from a new company. The convenience-focused drive-thru coffee chain was founded in 1992 in Oregon before slowly spreading across the Western United States. After going public, its expansion plans have accelerated as it seeks to compete against established rivals like <strong>Starbucks</strong>, <strong>Dunkin' Brands</strong>, and <strong>Restaurant Brands International</strong>'s Tim Hortons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管许多美国人最近才开始熟悉 Dutch Bros，但它并不是一家新公司。这家以便利为重点的驶入式咖啡连锁店成立于 1992 年的俄勒冈州，然后逐渐扩展到美国西部。在上市后，它的扩张计划加速进行，旨在与 <strong>星巴克</strong>、<strong>Dunkin' Brands</strong> 和 <strong>餐厅品牌国际</strong> 旗下的 Tim Hortons 等老牌竞争对手竞争。</p>
</div><p>Although it may look simple, the coffee industry is not for the weak-hearted. Some experts estimate that 62% of independent shops fail in their first five years of operation. And Dutch Bros' journey from its humble beginnings into a semi-national chain (with 912 locations across 18 states) says a lot about its value proposition to consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管看起来很简单，但咖啡行业并不适合软弱的人。一些专家估计，62% 的独立咖啡店在开业的头五年就会倒闭。Dutch Bros 从其谦卑的开始发展成为一个半国家连锁店（在 18 个州拥有 912 家门店）的历程，这说明了它对消费者的价值主张。</p>
</div><p>Unlike Starbucks, which presents as a cozy third space where people can get work done, Dutch Bros focuses on speed and convenience. Its locations are drive-thru only. But it has balanced this around bubbly and friendly staff trained to personalize the customer experience.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与星巴克不同，星巴克呈现出一个舒适的第三空间，人们可以在那里完成工作，而 Dutch Bros 则专注于速度和便利。它的门店只有驶入式。但它在周到友好的员工和个性化客户体验方面取得了平衡。</p>
</div><p>But perhaps most importantly, Dutch Bros isn't targeted toward coffee snobs. Its menu boasts a wide array of drinks, ranging from sugary energy drinks to boba tea, milkshakes, and smoothies, making it ideal for consumers who enjoy unique flavor combinations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但也许最重要的是，Dutch Bros 并不针对咖啡行家。其菜单拥有各种饮品，从甜蜜的能量饮料到波霸奶茶、奶昔和冰沙，适合喜欢独特口味组合的消费者。</p>
</div><h2>Why is the stock underperforming?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么股票表现不佳？</h2>
</div><p>Dutch Bros' second-quarter revenue grew 30% year over year to $324.9 million, driven by 36 new shop openings (to 912) and modest same-shop sales growth. Operating income jumped 64% to $32.2 million. The company enjoys significant interest in its rewards program, which allows consumers to get free drinks by making qualified purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Dutch Bros 第二季度营收同比增长 30%，达到 3.249 亿美元，受到 36 家新店开业（达到 912 家）和适度的同店销售增长的推动。营业收入增长 64%，达到 3.22 亿美元。该公司的奖励计划受到了极大的兴趣，消费者可以通过符合条件的购买获得免费饮品。</p>
</div><p>Members represented a whopping 67% of all transactions in the period, suggesting this is shaping up to be a key driver of loyalty and retention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>会员在该期间占所有交易的惊人 67%，这表明这可能成为忠诚度和留存的关键驱动因素。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODg3OTQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM1ODA0OTg2My5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F788794%2Fgettyimages-1358049863.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>But while Dutch Bros seems to have all the ingredients for sustainable success, that hasn't necessarily made its public stock a good investment. The biggest problem seems to be overvaluation. Despite falling significantly from its all-time high of $76, in my view, the market is still pricing the shares at a premium, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 75.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Dutch Bros 似乎具备可持续成功的所有要素，但这并没有使其公开股票成为一个好的投资。最大的问题似乎是过度估值。尽管股价已从历史最高价 76 美元大幅下跌，但在我看来，市场仍然以溢价定价股票，前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 75。</p>
</div><p>For context, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index trades at a forward estimate of just 23 while comparable stocks like Starbucks or <strong>Luckin Coffee</strong> trade for forward P/Es of 24 and 18, respectively. And while it is normal for growth-oriented companies to trade at premiums, Dutch Bros' current results don't seem to justify its stock's inflated price tag.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了更好理解，<strong>标普 500</strong> 指数的前瞻估计仅为 23，而类似的股票如星巴克或 <strong>瑞幸咖啡</strong> 的前瞻市盈率分别为 24 和 18。虽然成长型公司以溢价交易是正常的，但 Dutch Bros 目前的业绩似乎并不能证明其股票的高价值。</p>
</div><h2>What could the next five years have in store?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未来五年可能会发生什么？</h2>
</div><p>While Dutch Bros looks overpriced based on projected 12-month earnings, that could change over the coming years. Unlike comparable coffee chains, Dutch Bros is still relatively tiny. And the company could unlock a vast addressable market by rolling out its proven strategy across the U.S. and, eventually, the rest of the world. Investors can cut this pricey stock some slack because of its clear, untapped potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管根据预计的未来 12 个月收益，Dutch Bros 看起来被高估了，但在未来几年可能会发生变化。与类似的咖啡连锁店不同，Dutch Bros 仍然相对较小。该公司可以通过在美国乃至全球推出其经过验证的战略来开拓一个巨大的可寻址市场。投资者可以因为其明显未开发的潜力而对这只昂贵的股票宽容一些。</p>
</div>

Dutch Bros 的股票在五年后会处于什么位置？