<p>经济衰退很难预测。即使是专业经济学家有时也会判断错误。但经济衰退偶尔会发生，并有时会拖累股市。这就是为什么对投资者来说，购买那些即使在经济低迷时仍能表现相对良好的公司股票是有用的。</p>
<p>那么，哪些公司值得投资呢？稳定的股息股票可能是不错的选择。无论经济状况如何，它们能够维持甚至增加股息支付的能力充分说明了它们基础业务的实力。</p>
<p>考虑到这一点，让我们看看两家能帮助投资者度过最严峻经济衰退的股息股票：<strong>艾伯维</strong>(ABBV 0.58%) 和 <strong>默克</strong>(MRK 0.84%)。</p>
<h2>1. 艾伯维</h2>
<p>医疗保健被认为是一个防御性行业是有充分理由的。许多医疗产品和服务并非奢侈品，它们对人们的健康甚至生命至关重要。</p>
<p>这当然适用于制药产品，而这正是艾伯维的主要业务。该公司拥有一系列药物，如免疫学领域的 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq，肿瘤学领域的 Venclexta 和 Imbruvica，神经科学领域的 Vraylar 和 Qulipta 等。艾伯维不能再依赖于 Humira——在其巅峰时期是全球最畅销药物——来推动增长。去年，它在美国失去了专利独占权。</p>
<p>然而，考虑到情况，该公司的财务业绩相当不错。第二季度，营收总额达到 145 亿美元，同比增长 4.3%。对于制药公司在重大专利悬崖后经历几年营收下滑并不罕见，也不是特别令人担忧。艾伯维的管理层最初预测公司将在 2025 年恢复营收增长。该公司的进展超出了预期，这充分说明了业务的实力。艾伯维提前为这一困境做好了准备，并且处理得比我们希望的要好。</p>
<p>此外，艾伯维的产品线中有数十项正在进行的临床试验。它还通过收购来增强其产品组合。最近，它以 87 亿美元完成了对 Cerevel Therapeutics 的收购，后者是一家专注于神经科学的临床阶段生物技术公司。无论是通过收购还是内部开发，艾伯维都有继续开发重要药物的工具。</p>
<p>其当前的主要增长驱动因素 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 将在 2027 年之前共实现超过 270 亿美元的销售，并将持续增长至 2030 年代，管理层表示。作为参考，去年 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 的联合收入为 117 亿美元。</p>
<p>那么艾伯维的股息状况如何？该公司连续 52 年提高了股息，包括在其前母公司 <strong>雅培实验室</strong> 的旗下时期。艾伯维的预期收益率目前超过 3.16%，而 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 的平均收益率为 1.32%。</p>
<p>这家制药公司是经济衰退中值得持有的股票，因为它很可能会继续录得相对强劲的营收和盈利，同时维持其股息支付。</p>
<h2>2. 默克</h2>
<p>默克也是一家领先的制药公司。该公司的畅销药 Keytruda 取代了 Humira 成为全球最畅销药物。这一出色的增长驱动因素仍然有很多潜力，已在许多不同类型癌症在各个国家获得了数十个适应症。第二季度，默克的 161 亿美元营收较去年同期增长了 7%。Keytruda 的 73 亿美元销售额同比增长了 16%。的确，Keytruda 的专利将于 2028 年到期。</p>
<p>然而，该公司似乎已经做好了准备。默克正在研发 Keytruda 的皮下版本，将接管部分药物适应症。研究公司 Evaluate Pharma 将这个版本的 Keytruda 列为行业最具前景的管线项目之一，到 2030 年可能创造高达 80 亿美元的收入。尽管这不会取代 Keytruda 当前的大部分销售额，默克将依靠其他产品。</p>
<p>其中包括 Winrevair，一种最近获得治疗肺动脉高压批准的药物。默克在肿瘤学等领域的广泛管线还将推出更多全新药物。尽管一旦 Keytruda 的专利到期，其销售额几乎肯定会下降，但这家医疗巨头有能力从中恢复并在很长时间内蓬勃发展。此外，默克还有良好的股息增长记录。</p>
<p>在过去十年中，其股息增长了 75%，目前提供的预期收益率为 2.65%。经济衰退不太可能打破默克的业务或其连续股息纪录。</p>

艾伯维

<p>这篇文章讨论了在经济衰退期间被认为是安全投资的两只股息股票，分别是艾伯维（AbbVie）和默克（Merck）。艾伯维专注于基本药品，在 Humira 之后表现出强大的韧性，年收入增长率达到了 4.3%，前瞻性股息率为 3.16%。默克凭借其顶级药物 Keytruda，实现了 7% 的收入增长，其强大的产品线支持未来增长，尽管 Keytruda 即将面临专利到期。默克的股息率为 2.65%。预计这两家公司在经济衰退期间将会维持或增加他们的股息</p>

<p>Recessions are difficult to predict. Even professional economists sometimes get it wrong. But they will happen occasionally and sometimes take the stock market down. That's why it's useful for investors to buy shares of companies that can perform relatively well even during downturns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济衰退很难预测。即使是专业经济学家有时也会判断错误。但经济衰退偶尔会发生，并有时会拖累股市。这就是为什么对投资者来说，购买那些即使在经济低迷时仍能表现相对良好的公司股票是有用的。</p>
</div><p>Which companies are worth investing in, then? Solid dividend stocks can be great picks. Their ability to maintain or even increase their payouts regardless of economic conditions speaks volumes about the strength of their underlying businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，哪些公司值得投资呢？稳定的股息股票可能是不错的选择。无论经济状况如何，它们能够维持甚至增加股息支付的能力充分说明了它们基础业务的实力。</p>
</div><p>With that in mind, let's consider two dividend stocks that can help investors get through the toughest recessions: <strong>AbbVie</strong>(ABBV 0.58%) and <strong>Merck</strong>(MRK 0.84%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一点，让我们看看两家能帮助投资者度过最严峻经济衰退的股息股票：<strong>艾伯维</strong>(ABBV 0.58%) 和 <strong>默克</strong>(MRK 0.84%)。</p>
</div><h2>1. AbbVie</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 艾伯维</h2>
</div><p>There is a good reason healthcare is considered a defensive industry. Many medical products and services aren't luxuries. They are essential to people's health and, sometimes, their lives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>医疗保健被认为是一个防御性行业是有充分理由的。许多医疗产品和服务并非奢侈品，它们对人们的健康甚至生命至关重要。</p>
</div><p>That certainly applies to pharmaceutical drugs, which are AbbVie's main business. The company boasts a lineup of medicines such as Skyrizi and Rinvoq in immunology, Venclexta and Imbruvica in oncology, Vraylar and Qulipta in neuroscience, and more. AbbVie can no longer rely on Humira -- the best-selling drug in the world at its peak -- to drive growth. It lost its patent exclusivity in the U.S. last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这当然适用于制药产品，而这正是艾伯维的主要业务。该公司拥有一系列药物，如免疫学领域的 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq，肿瘤学领域的 Venclexta 和 Imbruvica，神经科学领域的 Vraylar 和 Qulipta 等。艾伯维不能再依赖于 Humira——在其巅峰时期是全球最畅销药物——来推动增长。去年，它在美国失去了专利独占权。</p>
</div><p>However, the company's financial results are pretty good, considering. In the second quarter, revenue totaled $14.5 billion, an increase of 4.3% year over year. It is not rare for pharmaceutical companies to go through a couple of years of declining revenue after a significant patent cliff -- and it's not particularly a cause for concern. AbbVie's management initially predicted that it would get back to top-line growth in 2025. The company is well ahead of schedule, which says a lot about the business. AbbVie prepared in advance for this ordeal and is handling it about as well as we could hope.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，考虑到情况，该公司的财务业绩相当不错。第二季度，营收总额达到 145 亿美元，同比增长 4.3%。对于制药公司在重大专利悬崖后经历几年营收下滑并不罕见，也不是特别令人担忧。艾伯维的管理层最初预测公司将在 2025 年恢复营收增长。该公司的进展超出了预期，这充分说明了业务的实力。艾伯维提前为这一困境做好了准备，并且处理得比我们希望的要好。</p>
</div><p>Elsewhere, AbbVie's pipeline features dozens of ongoing clinical trials. It is also bolstering its portfolio through acquisitions. It recently completed the buyout of Cerevel Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotech focusing on neuroscience, for $8.7 billion. Whether it is through acquisition or internal development, AbbVie has the tools to continue developing important medicines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，艾伯维的产品线中有数十项正在进行的临床试验。它还通过收购来增强其产品组合。最近，它以 87 亿美元完成了对 Cerevel Therapeutics 的收购，后者是一家专注于神经科学的临床阶段生物技术公司。无论是通过收购还是内部开发，艾伯维都有继续开发重要药物的工具。</p>
</div><p>Its current main growth drivers, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, will generate more than $27 billion in sales between them by 2027 and continue growing well into the 2030s, according to management. For reference, Skyrizi and Rinvoq's combined revenue last year was $11.7 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其当前的主要增长驱动因素 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 将在 2027 年之前共实现超过 270 亿美元的销售，并将持续增长至 2030 年代，管理层表示。作为参考，去年 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 的联合收入为 117 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>What about AbbVie's dividend status? The company has raised its payouts for 52 consecutive years, including the time it spent under the wing of <strong>Abbott Laboratories</strong>, its former parent company. AbbVie's forward yield currently tops 3.16%, compared to the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s average of 1.32%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么艾伯维的股息状况如何？该公司连续 52 年提高了股息，包括在其前母公司 <strong>雅培实验室</strong> 的旗下时期。艾伯维的预期收益率目前超过 3.16%，而 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 的平均收益率为 1.32%。</p>
</div><p>The drugmaker is a top stock to hold through a recession since it will likely continue recording somewhat strong revenue and earnings while sustaining its dividend payouts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家制药公司是经济衰退中值得持有的股票，因为它很可能会继续录得相对强劲的营收和盈利，同时维持其股息支付。</p>
</div><h2>2. Merck</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 默克</h2>
</div><p>Merck is also a leading drugmaker. The company's top-selling drug, Keytruda, took over from Humira as the best-selling in the world. This terrific growth driver still has a lot of life in it, having earned dozens of indications for many different types of cancer in various countries. In the second quarter, Merck's revenue of $16.1 billion was up 7% compared to the year-ago period. Keytruda's sales of $7.3 billion jumped 16% year over year. True, Keytruda's patent will expire in 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>默克也是一家领先的制药公司。该公司的畅销药 Keytruda 取代了 Humira 成为全球最畅销药物。这一出色的增长驱动因素仍然有很多潜力，已在许多不同类型癌症在各个国家获得了数十个适应症。第二季度，默克的 161 亿美元营收较去年同期增长了 7%。Keytruda 的 73 亿美元销售额同比增长了 16%。的确，Keytruda 的专利将于 2028 年到期。</p>
</div><p>However, the company seems increasingly ready. Merck is working on a subcutaneous version of Keytruda that will take over some of the medicine's indications. The research company Evaluate Pharma puts this version of Keytruda as one of the industry's most promising pipeline programs, potentially generating as much as $8 billion in revenue by 2030. While that won't replace all -- or even most -- of what Keytruda currently racks up, Merck will rely on other products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，该公司似乎已经做好了准备。默克正在研发 Keytruda 的皮下版本，将接管部分药物适应症。研究公司 Evaluate Pharma 将这个版本的 Keytruda 列为行业最具前景的管线项目之一，到 2030 年可能创造高达 80 亿美元的收入。尽管这不会取代 Keytruda 当前的大部分销售额，默克将依靠其他产品。</p>
</div><p>That includes Winrevair, a medicine that recently earned approval for treating pulmonary arterial hypertension. Merck's vast pipeline, particularly in oncology, should also deliver many more brand-new medicines moving forward. Though its sales will almost certainly decline once Keytruda's patent expires, the healthcare giant has the tools to recover from that and thrive long after. Further, Merck also has a strong dividend track record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中包括 Winrevair，一种最近获得治疗肺动脉高压批准的药物。默克在肿瘤学等领域的广泛管线还将推出更多全新药物。尽管一旦 Keytruda 的专利到期，其销售额几乎肯定会下降，但这家医疗巨头有能力从中恢复并在很长时间内蓬勃发展。此外，默克还有良好的股息增长记录。</p>
</div><p>It has increased its payouts by 75% in the past decade and currently offers a forward yield of 2.65%. A recession is unlikely to break Merck's business or its dividend streak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去十年中，其股息增长了 75%，目前提供的预期收益率为 2.65%。经济衰退不太可能打破默克的业务或其连续股息纪录。</p>
</div>

2 只你可以在经济衰退期间安心持有的股息股票