<p>周二，<strong>Lumen Technologies</strong>（LUMN -10.29%）的股价大幅下跌，截至下午 2:23 下跌了 9.1%。</p>
<p>Lumen 是一家负债累累的公司，其股票在今年早些时候陷入困境。然而，今年年初与 AI（人工智能）网络的长期交易，使得股价在 8 月初飙升。</p>
<p>但在股价大涨几周后，怀疑论者公开对以 AI 为驱动力的复苏前景进行质疑。今天，又有一位做空者对那些 AI 交易对解决公司巨额债务负担的意义提出质疑。这是过去一周内第二位发表评论的做空者。这加剧了市场的普遍恐慌，导致股价大幅下跌。</p>
<h2>Hedgeye 对 Lumen 的债务和现金流提出担忧</h2>
<p>周二，股票推荐公司 Hedgeye 发布了一份建议读者做空 Lumen 的报告。该报告反映了对 Lumen 债务负担和不断下降的财务指标的熟悉担忧。具体而言，Hedgeye 指出 Lumen 的债务与 EBITDA（利息、税收、折旧和摊销前利润）比率高达 4.3，以及&#34;有限&#34;的自由现金流生成。虽然指出公司将债务到期日推迟至 2029 年的交易给了管理层更多的时间来扭转局面，但做空者对 Lumen 不断下降的核心业务能否及时扭转表示怀疑。</p>
<p>Hedgeye 的做空报告发布仅一周后，另一位做空者于 8 月底发布了一份关于 Lumen 的报告，表达了类似的担忧。</p>
<p>做空者认为，Lumen 在发布第二季度业绩之前的一天披露了价值 50 亿美元的新 AI 相关交易，以及另外 70 亿美元的额外 AI&#34;机会&#34;，以掩盖持续恶化的情况。</p>
<p>在第二季度，Lumen 的业务继续下滑，营收下降了 10.7%。管理层指出，其中约 36% 的下降与资产剥离有关，但整体业务仍显示出高个位数的下降。管理层还强调了两个关注领域，即企业的&#34;增长&#34;组合，同比增长 1.5%，以及家庭光纤产品，同比增长 14.6%。</p>
<p>问题在于，这些增长部分仍然占公司业务的少数部分，而大部分 Lumen 的产品收入仍在持续下滑。Lumen 在该季度录得 1.56 亿美元的自由现金流亏损。虽然管理层预计今年将实现 11 亿美元的正自由现金流，但其中 7 亿美元将归因于一次性税款退款。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，Lumen 的债务和养老金责任约为 189 亿美元。</p>
<h2>投资者应对 AI 复苏持怀疑态度</h2>
<p>投资者可能将 Lumen 视为价值股，因为其交易估值低迷，但也可能受益于对 AI 的增加网络支出。然而，人们应保持谨慎。根据公司的季度报告，新的 50 亿美元 AI 相关私人连接布局交易将在三到四年内进行，并将导致 Lumen 额外支出。这将带来每年约 12.5 亿美元的收入，但盈利能力尚不确定。</p>
<p>这与 Lumen 过去 12 个月实现的 137 亿美元收入相比。但这类&#34;新&#34;收入来源必须取代仍在下降的旧技术，因此 Lumen 不会仅凭此交易使其营收增长 10%。</p>
<p>关键是，即使有了闪亮的新 AI 收入，Lumen 的扭转仍远未确定。因此，投资者在考虑投资之前应持怀疑态度，并阅读做空者的报告。</p>

LUMN

<p>路门科技的股价下跌了 9.1%，主要是因为人们担忧其巨额债务和财务困境。尽管之前因人工智能交易而出现过一波涨势，但空头头寸的怀疑情绪再次出现，特别是来自 Hedgeye，他们建议读者做空该股。主要问题包括高达 4.3 的债务与息税折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）比率以及核心收入的下降，尽管在某些领域有增长。由于存在重大债务责任以及新人工智能项目的盈利前景不明，分析师们警告称，路门科技的财务复苏仍然不确定</p>

<p>Shares of <strong>Lumen Technologies</strong>(LUMN -10.29%) were falling hard on Tuesday, down 9.1% as of 2:23 p.m. EDT.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，<strong>Lumen Technologies</strong>（LUMN -10.29%）的股价大幅下跌，截至下午 2:23 下跌了 9.1%。</p>
</div><p>Lumen is a debt-riddled company whose stock became distressed earlier this year. However, an early-year deal to extend its debt maturities, combined with long-term deals for AI (artificial intelligence) networking, caused the stock to skyrocket in early August.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lumen 是一家负债累累的公司，其股票在今年早些时候陷入困境。然而，今年年初与 AI（人工智能）网络的长期交易，使得股价在 8 月初飙升。</p>
</div><p>But weeks after the stock's big pop, skeptics are publicly throwing cold water on the AI-fueled turnaround prospects. Today, another short-seller voiced skepticism as to how meaningful those AI deals will really be in tackling the company's massive debt load. This was the second short-seller to publish a note in just the past week. That added to general market fears today, resulting in a big drop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在股价大涨几周后，怀疑论者公开对以 AI 为驱动力的复苏前景进行质疑。今天，又有一位做空者对那些 AI 交易对解决公司巨额债务负担的意义提出质疑。这是过去一周内第二位发表评论的做空者。这加剧了市场的普遍恐慌，导致股价大幅下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Hedgeye raises concerns about Lumen's debt and cash flow</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Hedgeye 对 Lumen 的债务和现金流提出担忧</h2>
</div><p>On Tuesday, stock-recommendation firm Hedgeye published a note advising readers to short Lumen. The note reflected familiar concerns over Lumen's debt load and declining financial metrics. Specifically, Hedgeye pointed to Lumen's high debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) ratio of 4.3, along with &#34;limited&#34; free-cash-flow generation. While noting the company's deal to push out its debt maturities to 2029 gives management more time for a turnaround, the short-seller voiced skepticism that Lumen's declining core business would turn around in time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，股票推荐公司 Hedgeye 发布了一份建议读者做空 Lumen 的报告。该报告反映了对 Lumen 债务负担和不断下降的财务指标的熟悉担忧。具体而言，Hedgeye 指出 Lumen 的债务与 EBITDA（利息、税收、折旧和摊销前利润）比率高达 4.3，以及&#34;有限&#34;的自由现金流生成。虽然指出公司将债务到期日推迟至 2029 年的交易给了管理层更多的时间来扭转局面，但做空者对 Lumen 不断下降的核心业务能否及时扭转表示怀疑。</p>
</div><p>Hedgeye's short note comes just one week after another short-seller published a report on Lumen at the end of August, which voiced similar concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hedgeye 的做空报告发布仅一周后，另一位做空者于 8 月底发布了一份关于 Lumen 的报告，表达了类似的担忧。</p>
</div><p>The short-sellers posited that Lumen disclosed $5 billion in new AI-related deals and an additional $7 billion in additional AI &#34;opportunities&#34; just one day before releasing second-quarter results in order to paper over continued deterioration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>做空者认为，Lumen 在发布第二季度业绩之前的一天披露了价值 50 亿美元的新 AI 相关交易，以及另外 70 亿美元的额外 AI&#34;机会&#34;，以掩盖持续恶化的情况。</p>
</div><p>In Q2, Lumen's business continued to decline, with revenues down 10.7%. Management did note that about 36% of that decline was related to divestitures, but the overall business is still showing a high-single-digit decline. Management also highlighted two areas of focus, its &#34;growth&#34; portfolio for enterprises, which grew 1.5% year over year, and its fiber-to-the-home consumer product, which grew 14.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度，Lumen 的业务继续下滑，营收下降了 10.7%。管理层指出，其中约 36% 的下降与资产剥离有关，但整体业务仍显示出高个位数的下降。管理层还强调了两个关注领域，即企业的&#34;增长&#34;组合，同比增长 1.5%，以及家庭光纤产品，同比增长 14.6%。</p>
</div><p>The problem is those growth segments still make up a minority of the business, while the majority of Lumen's product revenue continues to deteriorate. Lumen also recorded a $156 million free-cash-flow <em>loss</em> in the quarter. And while management guided for $1.1 billion in positive free cash flow this year, $700 million of that will be due to a one-time tax refund.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题在于，这些增长部分仍然占公司业务的少数部分，而大部分 Lumen 的产品收入仍在持续下滑。Lumen 在该季度录得 1.56 亿美元的自由现金流亏损。虽然管理层预计今年将实现 11 亿美元的正自由现金流，但其中 7 亿美元将归因于一次性税款退款。</p>
</div><p>Of note, Lumen has about $18.9 billion in debt and pension liabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，Lumen 的债务和养老金责任约为 189 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Investors should be skeptical of an AI turnaround</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者应对 AI 复苏持怀疑态度</h2>
</div><p>Investors may be eyeing Lumen as a value stock, given that it traded at a distressed valuation but may also benefit from increased network spending on AI. However, one should remain cautious. The new $5 billion AI-related Private Connectivity Fabric deal will occur over three to four years, per the company's quarterly report, and will also entail extra spending by Lumen. That's about $1.25 billion in revenue per year, with uncertain profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可能将 Lumen 视为价值股，因为其交易估值低迷，但也可能受益于对 AI 的增加网络支出。然而，人们应保持谨慎。根据公司的季度报告，新的 50 亿美元 AI 相关私人连接布局交易将在三到四年内进行，并将导致 Lumen 额外支出。这将带来每年约 12.5 亿美元的收入，但盈利能力尚不确定。</p>
</div><p>That's in relation to the $13.7 billion in revenue Lumen made over the past 12 months. But these types of &#34;new&#34; revenue sources have to replace older technologies that are still declining, so it's not as if Lumen will grow its top line 10% as a result of this deal alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这与 Lumen 过去 12 个月实现的 137 亿美元收入相比。但这类&#34;新&#34;收入来源必须取代仍在下降的旧技术，因此 Lumen 不会仅凭此交易使其营收增长 10%。</p>
</div><p>The bottom line is, Lumen's turnaround is far from assured, even with its shiny new AI revenue. Investors should therefore be skeptical and read the short-sellers' reports before considering an investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键是，即使有了闪亮的新 AI 收入，Lumen 的扭转仍远未确定。因此，投资者在考虑投资之前应持怀疑态度，并阅读做空者的报告。</p>
</div>

为什么 Lumen Technologies 今天暴跌