<p><strong>赛富时</strong>(CRM -0.15%) 于 8 月 28 日发布了最新的财报。截至 2025 财年第二季度（截至 7 月 31 日），这家云软件巨头的营收同比增长 8%，达到 93.3 亿美元，超出分析师预期 1 亿美元。调整后的每股收益（EPS）增长 21%，达到 2.56 美元，超出共识预期 0.20 美元。</p>
<p>赛富时的增长率看起来健康，但股价今年仍下跌 2%。让我们看看现在是否值得购买。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODkxNDYvY2xvdWQtY29tcHV0aW5nLXRlYW0tYnVzaW5lc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODkxNDYvY2xvdWQtY29tcHV0aW5nLXRlYW0tYnVzaW5lc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>赛富时的增长仍在放缓</h2>
<p>赛富时是全球领先的基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）服务提供商。它还提供其他基于云的营销、电子商务、分析和企业协作服务。在 2025 财年上半年，它的订阅和支持收入中，23% 来自销售云，26% 来自服务云，20% 来自平台和其他云，15% 来自营销和商务云，16% 来自集成和分析云。以下是过去两年半中这五个部门的表现（按恒定货币计算）。</p>
<p>各部门营收增长 |</p>
<p>2023 财年 |</p>
<p>2024 财年 |</p>
<p>2025 财年 Q1 |</p>
<p>2025 财年 Q2 |
|</p>
<p>销售 |</p>
<p>19% |</p>
<p>11% |</p>
<p>11% |</p>
<p>10% |
|</p>
<p>服务 |</p>
<p>18% |</p>
<p>12% |</p>
<p>11% |</p>
<p>11% |
|</p>
<p>平台和其他 |</p>
<p>36% |</p>
<p>11% |</p>
<p>10% |</p>
<p>10% |
|</p>
<p>营销和商务 |</p>
<p>21% |</p>
<p>9% |</p>
<p>10% |</p>
<p>7% |
|</p>
<p>集成和分析 |</p>
<p>16% |</p>
<p>20% |</p>
<p>25% |</p>
<p>14% |
|</p>
<p>总计 |</p>
<p>22% |</p>
<p>11% |</p>
<p>11% |</p>
<p>9% |</p>
<p>数据来源：赛富时。按恒定货币计算。</p>
<p>多年来，赛富时通过大规模收购扩大了其生态系统。但在 2023 财年（截至 2023 年 1 月）遭到激进投资者围攻后，赛富时暂停了非有机扩张，转而削减成本，回购更多股票以提升 EPS。它还首次发放股息。</p>
<p>随着赛富时优先考虑扩大运营利润率而非增长营收，不断上升的利率和其他宏观阻力导致许多公司限制了云计算支出。它还面临来自增长更快的 CRM 平台（如 <strong>微软</strong> 的 Dynamics）和其他多元化云软件平台的激烈竞争。</p>
<p>对于 2025 财年，赛富时预计其营收仅增长 8% 至 9%，这意味着在下半年整体增速仅为高个位数。因此，其最近推出的生成式人工智能服务（用于分析客户数据和自动化重复任务）尚未显著提升销售。</p>
<h2>但其利润率仍在扩大</h2>
<p>赛富时的高增长时期可能已经结束，但裁员和降低成本措施正在提升其利润率。其调整后的营运利润率从 2023 财年的 22.5% 上升至 2024 财年的 30.5%，预计将在 2025 财年扩大至 32.8%。</p>
<p>其营运现金流在 2023 财年增长了 41%，在 2024 财年增长了 44%，预计 2025 财年将再增长 23% 至 25%。它还将股票回购从 2023 财年的 40 亿美元增至 2024 财年的 76 亿美元，并在 2025 财年上半年再回购 65 亿美元的股票。其当前回购授权额度还剩下 119 亿美元。</p>
<p>赛富时预计这些不断增长的利润率和股票回购将使其全年调整后的 EPS 增长 22% 至 23%。以 258 美元的股价计算，其股票仍以该预测中间值的 26 倍合理价值。而预计其当前财年（从 7 月开始）盈利增长仅为 11% 的微软，交易倍数为 31 倍。</p>
<h2>现在是购买这只科技股的正确时机吗？</h2>
<p>赛富时的底线改善取悦了其激进投资者，但其长期增长潜力尚不明朗。其有机增长乏力，无法通过投资和收购大举扩张，因为其专注于削减成本、增加营运现金流和回购更多股票。</p>
<p>换句话说，赛富时有可能成为下一个 <strong>IBM</strong>(IBM 1.41%) -- 这家过于专注于增长 EPS 而导致营收增长停滞了整整十年的蓝筹科技巨头。如果发生这种情况，赛富时的 EPS 增速将放缓，并且将被重新定价为增速缓慢的股票。目前，在有如此多更好的成长、价值和股息股票可供选择时，购买赛富时的股票并不太明智。</p>

赛富时

<p>Salesforce（CRM）报告称，截至 2025 财年第二季度，营收同比增长 8%，达到 83.3 亿美元，超出分析师的预期。尽管这些数据表现出色，但该股票今年下跌了 2%。该公司正在经历增长放缓，预计营收增长仅为 8%-9%，原因是利率上升和竞争加剧。然而，削减成本措施已将其营运利润率从 22.5% 提高至预计的 32.8%。尽管如此，分析师对 Salesforce 的长期增长潜力表示警告，并将其与 IBM 过去增长缓慢的情况进行了类比</p>

<p><strong>Salesforce</strong>(CRM -0.15%) posted its latest earnings report on Aug. 28. In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended on July 31, the cloud software giant's revenue rose 8% year over year to $9.33 billion and exceeded analysts' estimates by $100 million. Its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew 21% to $2.56 and cleared the consensus forecast by $0.20.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>赛富时</strong>(CRM -0.15%) 于 8 月 28 日发布了最新的财报。截至 2025 财年第二季度（截至 7 月 31 日），这家云软件巨头的营收同比增长 8%，达到 93.3 亿美元，超出分析师预期 1 亿美元。调整后的每股收益（EPS）增长 21%，达到 2.56 美元，超出共识预期 0.20 美元。</p>
</div><p>Salesforce's growth rates seem healthy, but its stock remains down 2% for the year. Let's see if it's worth buying right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>赛富时的增长率看起来健康，但股价今年仍下跌 2%。让我们看看现在是否值得购买。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODkxNDYvY2xvdWQtY29tcHV0aW5nLXRlYW0tYnVzaW5lc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F789146%2Fcloud-computing-team-business.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Salesforce's growth is still slowing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>赛富时的增长仍在放缓</h2>
</div><p>Salesforce is the world's leading provider of cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) services. It also provides other cloud-based marketing, e-commerce, analytics, and enterprise collaboration services. In the first half of fiscal 2025, it generated 23% of its subscription and support revenue from its Sales Cloud, 26% from its Service Cloud, 20% from its Platform and Other Cloud, 15% from its Marketing and Commerce Cloud, and 16% from its Integration and Analytics Cloud. Here's how those five units fared (in constant currency terms) over the past two-and-a-half fiscal years.</p>
<p>|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>赛富时是全球领先的基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）服务提供商。它还提供其他基于云的营销、电子商务、分析和企业协作服务。在 2025 财年上半年，它的订阅和支持收入中，23% 来自销售云，26% 来自服务云，20% 来自平台和其他云，15% 来自营销和商务云，16% 来自集成和分析云。以下是过去两年半中这五个部门的表现（按恒定货币计算）。</p>
</div><p>Revenue Growth by Segment |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>各部门营收增长 |</p>
</div><p>FY 2023 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 财年 |</p>
</div><p>FY 2024 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 财年 |</p>
</div><p>Q1 2025 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 财年 Q1 |</p>
</div><p>Q2 2025 |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 财年 Q2 |
|</p>
</div><p>Sales |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>销售 |</p>
</div><p>19% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>19% |</p>
</div><p>11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |</p>
</div><p>11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |</p>
</div><p>10% |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10% |
|</p>
</div><p>Service |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服务 |</p>
</div><p>18% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>18% |</p>
</div><p>12% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12% |</p>
</div><p>11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |</p>
</div><p>11% |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |
|</p>
</div><p>Platform and other |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平台和其他 |</p>
</div><p>36% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>36% |</p>
</div><p>11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |</p>
</div><p>10% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10% |</p>
</div><p>10% |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10% |
|</p>
</div><p>Marketing and commerce |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>营销和商务 |</p>
</div><p>21% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>21% |</p>
</div><p>9% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>9% |</p>
</div><p>10% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10% |</p>
</div><p>7% |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7% |
|</p>
</div><p>Integration and analytics |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>集成和分析 |</p>
</div><p>16% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>16% |</p>
</div><p>20% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>20% |</p>
</div><p>25% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>25% |</p>
</div><p>14% |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>14% |
|</p>
</div><p>Total |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总计 |</p>
</div><p>22% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>22% |</p>
</div><p>11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |</p>
</div><p>11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |</p>
</div><p>9% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>9% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: Salesforce. Constant currency basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：赛富时。按恒定货币计算。</p>
</div><p>For many years, Salesforce expanded its ecosystem through big acquisitions. But after being besieged by activist investors in fiscal 2023 (which ended in January 2023), Salesforce paused its inorganic expansion and pivoted toward cutting costs and buying back more shares to boost its EPS. It also initiated its first dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，赛富时通过大规模收购扩大了其生态系统。但在 2023 财年（截至 2023 年 1 月）遭到激进投资者围攻后，赛富时暂停了非有机扩张，转而削减成本，回购更多股票以提升 EPS。它还首次发放股息。</p>
</div><p>As Salesforce prioritized expanding its operating margins over growing its revenues, rising interest rates and other macro headwinds drove many companies to rein in their cloud spending. It also faced stiff competition from faster-growing CRM platforms like <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s (MSFT -0.13%) Dynamics and other diversified cloud software platforms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着赛富时优先考虑扩大运营利润率而非增长营收，不断上升的利率和其他宏观阻力导致许多公司限制了云计算支出。它还面临来自增长更快的 CRM 平台（如 <strong>微软</strong> 的 Dynamics）和其他多元化云软件平台的激烈竞争。</p>
</div><p>For fiscal 2025, Salesforce expects its revenue to only grow 8% to 9%, which implies it will only grow at a high-single-digit rate throughout the second half of the year. Therefore, the recent expansion of its generative AI services (for analyzing its customer data and automating repetitive tasks) aren't meaningfully boosting its sales yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 2025 财年，赛富时预计其营收仅增长 8% 至 9%，这意味着在下半年整体增速仅为高个位数。因此，其最近推出的生成式人工智能服务（用于分析客户数据和自动化重复任务）尚未显著提升销售。</p>
</div><h2>But its margins are still expanding</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但其利润率仍在扩大</h2>
</div><p>Salesforce's high-growth days might be over, but its layoffs and cost-cutting measures are boosting its margins. Its adjusted operating margin rose from 22.5% in fiscal 2023 to 30.5% in fiscal 2024, and it expects it to expand to 32.8% in fiscal 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>赛富时的高增长时期可能已经结束，但裁员和降低成本措施正在提升其利润率。其调整后的营运利润率从 2023 财年的 22.5% 上升至 2024 财年的 30.5%，预计将在 2025 财年扩大至 32.8%。</p>
</div><p>Its operating cash flow rose 41% in fiscal 2023 and 44% in fiscal 2024, and it anticipates another 23% to 25% growth in fiscal 2025. It also ramped up its buybacks from $4 billion in fiscal 2023 to $7.6 billion in fiscal 2024, and it repurchased another $6.5 billion in shares in the first half of fiscal 2025. It still has $11.9 billion left in its current buyback authorization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其营运现金流在 2023 财年增长了 41%，在 2024 财年增长了 44%，预计 2025 财年将再增长 23% 至 25%。它还将股票回购从 2023 财年的 40 亿美元增至 2024 财年的 76 亿美元，并在 2025 财年上半年再回购 65 亿美元的股票。其当前回购授权额度还剩下 119 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Salesforce expects those rising margins and buybacks to boost its adjusted EPS by 22% to 23% for the full year. At $258 a share, its stock still looks reasonably valued at 26 times the midpoint of that forecast. Microsoft, which is expected to grow its earnings just 11% in its current fiscal year (which started in July), trades at 31 times forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>赛富时预计这些不断增长的利润率和股票回购将使其全年调整后的 EPS 增长 22% 至 23%。以 258 美元的股价计算，其股票仍以该预测中间值的 26 倍合理价值。而预计其当前财年（从 7 月开始）盈利增长仅为 11% 的微软，交易倍数为 31 倍。</p>
</div><h2>Is it the right tech stock to buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是购买这只科技股的正确时机吗？</h2>
</div><p>Salesforce's bottom-line improvements appeased its activist investors, but its long-term growth potential is murky. Its organic growth is underwhelming, and it can't aggressively expand through investments and acquisitions as long as it's so focused on cutting costs, increasing its operating cash flow, and buying back more shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>赛富时的底线改善取悦了其激进投资者，但其长期增长潜力尚不明朗。其有机增长乏力，无法通过投资和收购大举扩张，因为其专注于削减成本、增加营运现金流和回购更多股票。</p>
</div><p>In other words, there's a risk that Salesforce could become the next <strong>IBM</strong>(IBM 1.41%) -- the blue chip tech giant that focused so much on growing its EPS that its revenue growth stalled out for an entire decade. If that happens, Salesforce's EPS growth will decelerate, and it will be revalued as a slow-growth stock. For now, it doesn't make much sense to buy Salesforce's stock when there are so many better growth, value, and dividend stocks to choose from.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，赛富时有可能成为下一个 <strong>IBM</strong>(IBM 1.41%) -- 这家过于专注于增长 EPS 而导致营收增长停滞了整整十年的蓝筹科技巨头。如果发生这种情况，赛富时的 EPS 增速将放缓，并且将被重新定价为增速缓慢的股票。目前，在有如此多更好的成长、价值和股息股票可供选择时，购买赛富时的股票并不太明智。</p>
</div>

赛富时的股票现在值得购买吗？