<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/08/brazil-deficit-invezz.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/08/brazil-deficit-invezz.jpg"/></p>
<p>StoneCo Ltd (NASDAQ: STNE) 今日股价大幅下跌，跌幅超过 10%，摔至 7 美元，这是因为摩根士丹利将该股评级从 “持平” 下调至 “弱势”，并将其目标股价从 16.50 美元下调至 7 美元。</p>
<p>这一下调意味着股价可能比当前交易水平下跌超过 40%，反映了市场对该公司近期前景的悲观情绪。</p>
<p>下调主要是由于对 StoneCo 所在的巴西数字支付行业市场饱和的担忧，以及对支付量增长大幅放缓的预期。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的展望与广泛共识形成鲜明对比，后者预计 StoneCo 的净收入将继续保持两位数增长。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的下调是因为该公司认为巴西数字支付市场已经成熟，减少了进一步扩张的机会。</p>
<p>分析师对 StoneCo 的盈利能力的可持续性表示担忧，强调商户收购增长和整体盈利能力可能面临重大阻力。</p>
<p>报告指出，市场低估了这种饱和状态带来的挑战，以及在未来几年可能对 StoneCo 盈利造成的压力。</p>
<p>因此，摩根士丹利已经大幅调低了对 StoneCo 的长期盈利预期，预期现在已经低于共识预期 50%-60%。</p>
<h2>StoneCo 第二季度盈利</h2>
<p>这一下调掩盖了 StoneCo 在 2024 年第二季度表现相对强劲的事实。</p>
<p>公司报告的营收为 32.1 亿雷亚尔（约合 5.86 亿美元），超出分析师预期，同比增长 8.5%。</p>
<p>这一增长是由金融服务收入强劲增长 10.6% 推动的，反映了活跃客户群体的持续增长和更高的客户货币化。</p>
<p>StoneCo 的调整后每股收益也超出预期，达到 1.61 雷亚尔，高于去年同期的 0.98 雷亚尔。</p>
<p>公司的总支付量（TPV）增长迅猛，同比增长 21.6%，达到 1261 亿雷亚尔，其中 MSMB 部门对这一增长做出了重要贡献。</p>
<p>尽管取得了这些积极成果，但人们仍然担忧公司的成本结构受到压力，成本同比大幅上升 22.8%，主要是由于对坏账准备金和物流、技术支出增加。</p>
<p>虽然公司已经将行政费用降低了 15.9%，但利润率的压力仍然是一个关键问题。</p>
<p>调整后的 EBITDA 利润率虽然略有改善，达到 49.5%，但反映了这些成本挑战，如果公司在核心市场面临阻力，这种挑战可能会持续。</p>
<h2>StoneCo 的不良贷款</h2>
<p>StoneCo 最近表现中最令人担忧的一个方面是不良贷款的增加。</p>
<p>公司的信贷组合中不良贷款增加，特别是在 15-90 天和超过 90 天的类别中，分别增加了 66 和 113 个基点。</p>
<p>不良贷款的上升令人担忧，特别是考虑到 StoneCo 在信贷业务方面存在挑战的历史。</p>
<p>不断增加的违约可能表明信贷质量存在潜在问题，可能导致未来更高的损失，进一步加剧公司的财务健康状况。</p>
<p>StoneCo 管理层已经采取措施缓解其中一些挑战。</p>
<p>公司专注于扩大高利润产品并改善成本管理流程。</p>
<p>这一战略已经帮助 StoneCo 维持盈利能力，正如第二季度净收入同比增长 54% 所证明的那样。</p>
<p>此外，公司正在进行的股票回购计划，得到了坚实的现金头寸支持，可能在短期内为股价提供一些支撑。</p>
<p>然而，这些努力可能不足以抵消公司面临的更广泛挑战。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的下调反映了对 StoneCo 在越来越竞争激烈和市场饱和的巴西支付市场中导航能力的日益怀疑。</p>
<h2>StoneCo 的估值</h2>
<p>从估值角度来看，StoneCo 当前的指标并未给投资者带来太多安慰。</p>
<p>尽管股价最近下跌，但公司的市盈率仍接近行业平均水平，提供的安全边际不大。</p>
<p>股票估值似乎有些过高，特别是考虑到预期增长和盈利能力放缓。</p>
<p>尽管公司在维持营收增长方面表现出坚韧性，但成本上升、不良贷款增加和市场环境饱和的结合对其长期估值前景构成重大风险。</p>
<p>要深入了解 StoneCo 股票未来可能走势，有必要转向技术指标。</p>
<p>通过分析图表，我们可以探讨最近的下跌是否预示着进一步下滑，或者是否存在反弹的可能性，为未来几周内股票潜在轨迹提供更清晰的视角。</p>
<h2>StoneCo：技术分析</h2>
<p>StoneCo 股价在去年 10 月至 12 月间翻了一番，但自今年年初以来开始下滑。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/STNE_2024-09-05_19-17-25-1024x555.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/STNE_2024-09-05_19-17-25-1024x555.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>今天，股价站在一个关键时刻，因为它低于 11.50 美元附近的中期支撑位开盘。</p>
<p>除非股价成功收复该水平并在该水平上方周线收盘，否则对多头来说情况看起来暗淡。</p>
<p>如果股价未能收复该水平，它可能回落至去年多次得到支撑的 9.5 美元水平。</p>
<p>目前，寻求做空该股票的交易者有一个低风险高回报的机会，因为他们可以在 11.7 美元附近做空该股票，设定止损位在 12.24 美元附近，利润目标为 9.5 美元。</p>
<p>StoneCo 股票今天暴跌：原因在这里</p>

STNE

<p>StoneCo Ltd（纳斯达克股票代码：STNE）在摩根大通将其评级从 “持平” 下调至 “低于市场平均” 后，股价下跌超过 10%，并严重下调了价格目标。分析师们对巴西数字支付市场饱和表示担忧，暗示该公司的长期盈利预测现在比市场共识低 50%-60%。尽管报告显示第二季度收入增长强劲，但不良贷款上升和成本增加引起投资者担忧。股票估值看似过高，技术指标矛盾，目前在关键支撑水平下方挣扎</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/08/brazil-deficit-invezz.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/08/brazil-deficit-invezz.jpg"/></p>
<p>StoneCo Ltd (NASDAQ: STNE) witnessed a significant decline in its stock price today, plummeting over 10% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Underweight and slashed its price target to $7 from $16.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneCo Ltd (NASDAQ: STNE) 今日股价大幅下跌，跌幅超过 10%，摔至 7 美元，这是因为摩根士丹利将该股评级从 “持平” 下调至 “弱势”，并将其目标股价从 16.50 美元下调至 7 美元。</p>
</div><p>This cut implies a potential downside of more than 40% from its current trading levels, reflecting the market’s pessimism toward the company’s near-term prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一下调意味着股价可能比当前交易水平下跌超过 40%，反映了市场对该公司近期前景的悲观情绪。</p>
</div><p>The downgrade was primarily driven by concerns over market saturation in the Brazilian digital payments sector, where StoneCo operates, and the expectation of a substantial slowdown in payment volume growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下调主要是由于对 StoneCo 所在的巴西数字支付行业市场饱和的担忧，以及对支付量增长大幅放缓的预期。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley’s outlook starkly contrasts the broader consensus, which had anticipated continued double-digit growth in StoneCo’s net income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的展望与广泛共识形成鲜明对比，后者预计 StoneCo 的净收入将继续保持两位数增长。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley’s downgrade comes when the firm believes Brazil’s digital payments market has matured, reducing opportunities for further expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的下调是因为该公司认为巴西数字支付市场已经成熟，减少了进一步扩张的机会。</p>
</div><p>The analyst expressed concerns about the sustainability of StoneCo’s profitability, highlighting that merchant acquiring growth and overall profitability might face significant headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师对 StoneCo 的盈利能力的可持续性表示担忧，强调商户收购增长和整体盈利能力可能面临重大阻力。</p>
</div><p>The report suggested that the market underestimates the challenges posed by this saturation and the pressure it could exert on StoneCo’s earnings over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告指出，市场低估了这种饱和状态带来的挑战，以及在未来几年可能对 StoneCo 盈利造成的压力。</p>
</div><p>Consequently, Morgan Stanley has adjusted its long-term earnings estimates for StoneCo significantly downward, with expectations now standing 50%-60% below consensus estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，摩根士丹利已经大幅调低了对 StoneCo 的长期盈利预期，预期现在已经低于共识预期 50%-60%。</p>
</div><h2>StoneCo’s Q2 earnings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>StoneCo 第二季度盈利</h2>
</div><p>This downgrade overshadowed what had been a relatively strong performance in StoneCo’s second quarter of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一下调掩盖了 StoneCo 在 2024 年第二季度表现相对强劲的事实。</p>
</div><p>The company reported revenue of R$3.21 billion (approximately $586 million), which exceeded analysts’ expectations and marked an 8.5% year-over-year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司报告的营收为 32.1 亿雷亚尔（约合 5.86 亿美元），超出分析师预期，同比增长 8.5%。</p>
</div><p>This growth was driven by a robust 10.6% increase in financial services revenues, reflecting consistent growth in the active client base and higher client monetization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一增长是由金融服务收入强劲增长 10.6% 推动的，反映了活跃客户群体的持续增长和更高的客户货币化。</p>
</div><p>StoneCo’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) also beat estimates, coming in at R$1.61, up from R$0.98 in the same quarter last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneCo 的调整后每股收益也超出预期，达到 1.61 雷亚尔，高于去年同期的 0.98 雷亚尔。</p>
</div><p>The company’s total payment volume (TPV) grew impressively, rising by 21.6% year-over-year to R$126.1 billion, with the MSMB segment contributing significantly to this growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的总支付量（TPV）增长迅猛，同比增长 21.6%，达到 1261 亿雷亚尔，其中 MSMB 部门对这一增长做出了重要贡献。</p>
</div><p>Despite these positive results, concerns remain regarding the company’s cost structure which has been under pressure, with costs rising sharply by 22.8% year-over-year, driven by higher provisions for doubtful debts and increased logistics and technology expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管取得了这些积极成果，但人们仍然担忧公司的成本结构受到压力，成本同比大幅上升 22.8%，主要是由于对坏账准备金和物流、技术支出增加。</p>
</div><p>While the company has reduced administrative expenses by 15.9%, the pressure on margins remains a critical concern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然公司已经将行政费用降低了 15.9%，但利润率的压力仍然是一个关键问题。</p>
</div><p>The adjusted EBITDA margin, though slightly improved to 49.5%, reflects these cost challenges, which could persist if the company faces headwinds in its core markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>调整后的 EBITDA 利润率虽然略有改善，达到 49.5%，但反映了这些成本挑战，如果公司在核心市场面临阻力，这种挑战可能会持续。</p>
</div><h2>StoneCo’s non-performing loans</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>StoneCo 的不良贷款</h2>
</div><p>One of the most troubling aspects of StoneCo’s recent performance has been the increase in non-performing loans (NPLs).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneCo 最近表现中最令人担忧的一个方面是不良贷款的增加。</p>
</div><p>The company’s credit portfolio saw a rise in NPLs, particularly in the 15-90 days and &gt;90 days categories, which increased by 66 and 113 basis points, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的信贷组合中不良贷款增加，特别是在 15-90 天和超过 90 天的类别中，分别增加了 66 和 113 个基点。</p>
</div><p>This uptick in NPLs is worrying, especially given StoneCo’s history of challenges with its credit operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不良贷款的上升令人担忧，特别是考虑到 StoneCo 在信贷业务方面存在挑战的历史。</p>
</div><p>The rising defaults could indicate underlying issues with credit quality, potentially leading to higher future losses, which may further strain the company’s financial health.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不断增加的违约可能表明信贷质量存在潜在问题，可能导致未来更高的损失，进一步加剧公司的财务健康状况。</p>
</div><p>StoneCo’s management has taken steps to mitigate some of these challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneCo 管理层已经采取措施缓解其中一些挑战。</p>
</div><p>The company has focused on expanding its higher-margin products and improving cost management processes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司专注于扩大高利润产品并改善成本管理流程。</p>
</div><p>This strategy has helped StoneCo maintain its profitability, as evidenced by the 54% year-over-year increase in net income during the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一战略已经帮助 StoneCo 维持盈利能力，正如第二季度净收入同比增长 54% 所证明的那样。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the company’s ongoing share buyback program, supported by a solid cash position, could provide some support to the stock price in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，公司正在进行的股票回购计划，得到了坚实的现金头寸支持，可能在短期内为股价提供一些支撑。</p>
</div><p>However, these efforts might not be enough to offset the broader challenges facing the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这些努力可能不足以抵消公司面临的更广泛挑战。</p>
</div><p>The downgrade from Morgan Stanley reflects a growing skepticism about StoneCo’s ability to navigate the increasingly competitive and saturated Brazilian payments market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的下调反映了对 StoneCo 在越来越竞争激烈和市场饱和的巴西支付市场中导航能力的日益怀疑。</p>
</div><h2>StoneCo’s valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>StoneCo 的估值</h2>
</div><p>From a valuation perspective, StoneCo’s current metrics do not provide much comfort to investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从估值角度来看，StoneCo 当前的指标并未给投资者带来太多安慰。</p>
</div><p>Despite the recent decline in stock price, the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains close to the sector average, offering little margin of safety.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管股价最近下跌，但公司的市盈率仍接近行业平均水平，提供的安全边际不大。</p>
</div><p>The stock’s valuation appears stretched, particularly when adjusted for the expected slowdown in growth and profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票估值似乎有些过高，特别是考虑到预期增长和盈利能力放缓。</p>
</div><p>While the company has shown resilience in maintaining revenue growth, the combination of rising costs, increasing NPLs, and a saturated market environment poses significant risks to its long-term valuation prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司在维持营收增长方面表现出坚韧性，但成本上升、不良贷款增加和市场环境饱和的结合对其长期估值前景构成重大风险。</p>
</div><p>To gain deeper insights into what might come next for StoneCo’s stock, it’s essential to turn to the technical indicators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要深入了解 StoneCo 股票未来可能走势，有必要转向技术指标。</p>
</div><p>By analyzing the charts, we can explore whether the recent downdraft is signaling further declines or if there’s potential for a rebound, providing a clearer view of the stock’s potential trajectory in the coming weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过分析图表，我们可以探讨最近的下跌是否预示着进一步下滑，或者是否存在反弹的可能性，为未来几周内股票潜在轨迹提供更清晰的视角。</p>
</div><h2>StoneCo: Technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>StoneCo：技术分析</h2>
</div><p>StoneCo’s stock more than doubled in price between October and December last year but started drifting downward since the start of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneCo 股价在去年 10 月至 12 月间翻了一番，但自今年年初以来开始下滑。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/STNE_2024-09-05_19-17-25-1024x555.png" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/STNE_2024-09-05_19-17-25-1024x555.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The stock stands at a critical juncture today as it opened below its medium-term support near $11.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，股价站在一个关键时刻，因为它低于 11.50 美元附近的中期支撑位开盘。</p>
</div><p>Unless the stock manages to reclaim that level decisively and give a weekly closing above it, things are looking gloomy for the bulls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非股价成功收复该水平并在该水平上方周线收盘，否则对多头来说情况看起来暗淡。</p>
</div><p>If the stock doesn’t reclaim that level, it can fall back to $9.5 levels where it took support last year multiple times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果股价未能收复该水平，它可能回落至去年多次得到支撑的 9.5 美元水平。</p>
</div><p>Traders looking to short the stock have a low-risk high-reward opportunity right now as they can short the stock near $11.7 with a stop loss near $12.24 and a profit target of $9.5.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，寻求做空该股票的交易者有一个低风险高回报的机会，因为他们可以在 11.7 美元附近做空该股票，设定止损位在 12.24 美元附近，利润目标为 9.5 美元。</p>
</div><p>The post StoneCo’s stock is crashing today: Here's why appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneCo 股票今天暴跌：原因在这里</p>
</div>

StoneCo 的股票今天暴跌：以下是原因