<p>目前，中国正在进行一场关于哪家公司将主导全球人们喜爱的产品——咖啡市场的战争。成功进入中国市场是西方公司几十年来一直渴望的事情。中国拥有超过 14 亿人口，占世界人口的 17%。许多公司将其视为巨大的增长机会。</p>
<p>在这里，我们将探讨这场咖啡战中的两家领先参与者：一家全球知名的西方公司和一家近年来在中国国内打响名声的本土公司。我们将看看这两家公司在消费者自由选择领域的历史以及他们之间竞争的现状，并考虑接下来可能发生的事情。</p>
<h2><strong>星巴克在中国的主导地位正在减弱</strong></h2>
<p>星巴克（NASDAQ: SBUX）是咖啡界的全球巨头，总部位于华盛顿州西雅图。该公司早在 1999 年就进入了中国市场。中国是该公司在美国以外最重要的市场，目前在中国已经拥有超过 7300 家门店。</p>
<p>尽管门店数量庞大，但近几个季度销售额一直在下滑。在财政第二季度，中国可比销售额下降了 11%，这既受到平均订单额减少又受到交易减少的影响。可比销售额不包括新店的销售额。开设新店可以增加收入，但并不意味着现有店铺经营良好。</p>
<p>在财政第三季度，下降幅度扩大，可比销售额下降了 14%。与在美国市场一样，星巴克在中国定位为高端咖啡品牌，售价远高于竞争对手。这很可能影响了最近的销售下滑，因为中国消费者对经济的信心在 7 月份接近历史最低点。在经济信心不足的情况下，消费者可能会转向价格更低的选项以节省开支。</p>
<h2><strong>瑞幸咖啡现在是中国的夺冠热门</strong></h2>
<p>瑞幸咖啡（OTCMKTS: LKNCY）于 2017 年进入中国市场。该公司在 2019 年上市后遭遇了一场欺诈丑闻，随后被纳斯达克摘牌。但现在，该公司已经完全恢复，并且正在给星巴克制造麻烦。</p>
<p>过去一年间，该公司的门店数量大幅增长，从 2023 年 6 月的约 11,000 家增加到 2024 年 6 月的近 20,000 家。几乎所有门店都在中国，还有一些在新加坡。该公司运营约三分之二的门店，而其余门店则采用类似特许经营的模式。</p>
<p>该公司的营收现在比星巴克在中国的业务还要高，而仅仅不到十年的时间。然而，由于公司门店迅速增长，最近的业绩很难解读。在公司的第一季度业绩中，总收入较去年同期增长了 42%。在第二季度，收入增长了 36%。</p>
<p>当我们看公司经营门店的可比销售额时，我们可以看到在过去的两个季度里分别下降了 20% 和 21%。考虑到瑞幸的价格要低得多，这种较大的下降很有趣。一家 16 盎司拿铁的价格是星巴克的三分之一。</p>
<p>这可能表明，在经济信心不足的时期，星巴克拥有更富裕的顾客，受影响比瑞幸的顾客更少，导致下降幅度较小。也可能是由于门店数量迅速增长导致了自相残杀，新店从现有店铺中夺走了销售额。</p>
<p>然而，与星巴克相比，由于整体营收迅速增长，这可能并不重要。管理层表示其目标是增加市场份额，而且他们确实做到了。自 2023 年 3 月以来，公司的平均月客户数量增加了 136%。</p>
<h2><strong>瑞幸需要警惕这个竞争激烈的领域中的挑战者</strong></h2>
<p>目前看来，瑞幸正在中国赢得咖啡战，尤其是在公司利润在第二季度得到很好恢复之后。在第一季度，快速扩张成本和价格战导致 1200 万美元的亏损；然而，第二季度利润达到了 1.2 亿美元。</p>
<p>瑞幸似乎有望继续取得胜利，基于其已经强劲的地位和承诺即使导致一个糟糕的季度也要快速增长。瑞幸必须继续抵御像 Cotti 这样的低成本国内竞争对手，并且不应忽视星巴克。星巴克的新 CEO 本月接任，可能会在这场激烈的战斗中引入一项重大变革。</p>
<p>→ 解决快餐工资上涨危机的方案（来自交易达人）（广告）</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.marketbeat.com/scripts/TriggeredCampaignPixel.ashx/query-UGxhY2VtZW50PU5hdGl2ZURpc3BsYXkmU291cmNlPU5hdGl2ZURpc3BsYXkmVHJpZ2dlcmVkQ2FtcGFpZ25JRD05NDYw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.marketbeat.com/scripts/TriggeredCampaignPixel.ashx/query-UGxhY2VtZW50PU5hdGl2ZURpc3BsYXkmU291cmNlPU5hdGl2ZURpc3BsYXkmVHJpZ2dlcmVkQ2FtcGFpZ25JRD05NDYw"/></p>
<h2>现在是否值得投资 1000 美元购买星巴克？</h2>
<p>在考虑投资星巴克之前，您可能想听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 追踪华尔街评级最高且表现最佳的研究分析师以及他们每天向客户推荐的股票。MarketBeat 已经确定了五家顶级分析师悄悄告诉他们的客户现在购买的股票... 而星巴克不在这份名单上。</p>
<p>尽管星巴克目前在分析师中有 “中等买入” 评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>查看这五只股票</p>

星巴克

<p>中国咖啡市场竞争激烈，星巴克正在失去对瑞幸咖啡的市场份额。尽管在中国拥有超过 7,300 家门店，但随着消费者信心下降，星巴克的销售额出现下滑。成立于 2017 年的瑞幸咖啡迅速从 11,000 家扩张至近 20,000 家门店，超过星巴克的总收入，并扩大了客户群。然而，两家公司在低经济信心和激烈竞争的环境下都面临着保持销售的挑战。瑞幸必须保持警惕，防范国内竞争对手的崛起以及星巴克新 CEO 可能带来的战略转变</p>

<p>Right now, a war is raging in China over which company will lead the market in a product that humans around the world love: coffee. Successful entry into the Chinese market is something Western companies have been coveting for decades. With over 1.4 billion people, China has 17% of the world's population. Many firms see it as a huge growth opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，中国正在进行一场关于哪家公司将主导全球人们喜爱的产品——咖啡市场的战争。成功进入中国市场是西方公司几十年来一直渴望的事情。中国拥有超过 14 亿人口，占世界人口的 17%。许多公司将其视为巨大的增长机会。</p>
</div><p>Here, we'll explore the two leading players in this coffee battle: a Western firm known worldwide and a domestic Chinese company that has made a name for itself over the past few years. We’ll look at the history of the two firms in the consumer discretionary sector and the current state of their competition and consider what could happen next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里，我们将探讨这场咖啡战中的两家领先参与者：一家全球知名的西方公司和一家近年来在中国国内打响名声的本土公司。我们将看看这两家公司在消费者自由选择领域的历史以及他们之间竞争的现状，并考虑接下来可能发生的事情。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Starbucks Is Seeing Its Dominance in China Fade</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>星巴克在中国的主导地位正在减弱</strong></h2>
</div><p>Starbucks NASDAQ: SBUX is the worldwide powerhouse in coffee, founded in Seattle, Washington. The company entered the Chinese market early, all the way back in 1999. The country is by far the firm’s most important outside the United States, having now amassed over 7,300 stores in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>星巴克（NASDAQ: SBUX）是咖啡界的全球巨头，总部位于华盛顿州西雅图。该公司早在 1999 年就进入了中国市场。中国是该公司在美国以外最重要的市场，目前在中国已经拥有超过 7300 家门店。</p>
</div><p>Despite this massive number of locations, sales have been floundering in recent quarters. In fiscal Q2, comparable sales in China declined 11%, driven both by smaller average order sizes and fewer transactions. Comparable sales exclude sales from new stores. Opening new stores boosts revenue but doesn't mean existing stores are doing well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管门店数量庞大，但近几个季度销售额一直在下滑。在财政第二季度，中国可比销售额下降了 11%，这既受到平均订单额减少又受到交易减少的影响。可比销售额不包括新店的销售额。开设新店可以增加收入，但并不意味着现有店铺经营良好。</p>
</div><p>In fiscal Q3, the decline increased, with comparable sales dropping 14%. As it does in the U.S., Starbucks positions itself as a premium coffee brand in China, selling at a significantly higher price point than the competition. This has likely influenced the recent sales decline, as Chinese consumer confidence neared its all-time low in July. With low confidence in the economy, consumers may be switching to lower-priced options to save.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在财政第三季度，下降幅度扩大，可比销售额下降了 14%。与在美国市场一样，星巴克在中国定位为高端咖啡品牌，售价远高于竞争对手。这很可能影响了最近的销售下滑，因为中国消费者对经济的信心在 7 月份接近历史最低点。在经济信心不足的情况下，消费者可能会转向价格更低的选项以节省开支。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Luckin Coffee Is Now the Team to Beat in China</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>瑞幸咖啡现在是中国的夺冠热门</strong></h2>
</div><p>Luckin Coffee OTCMKTS: LKNCY entered the Chinese market in 2017. After the company went public in 2019, it faced a fraud scandal, and NASDAQ delisted it. But now, the firm is fully back on its feet and is taking Starbucks to task.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞幸咖啡（OTCMKTS: LKNCY）于 2017 年进入中国市场。该公司在 2019 年上市后遭遇了一场欺诈丑闻，随后被纳斯达克摘牌。但现在，该公司已经完全恢复，并且正在给星巴克制造麻烦。</p>
</div><p>The company has seen massive growth in its store count over the past year, increasing from around 11,000 locations in Jun. 2023 to nearly 20,000 in Jun. 2024. Almost all of these are in China, with some in Singapore. The company operates around two-thirds of the stores, while it uses a franchise-like model to operate the rest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去一年间，该公司的门店数量大幅增长，从 2023 年 6 月的约 11,000 家增加到 2024 年 6 月的近 20,000 家。几乎所有门店都在中国，还有一些在新加坡。该公司运营约三分之二的门店，而其余门店则采用类似特许经营的模式。</p>
</div><p>The company now has higher revenues than Starbuck’s Chinese business after less than a decade of operation. However, more recent results are difficult to parse out due to the company’s rapid store growth. In the company’s Q1 results, its total revenue grew 42% from the previous year. In Q2, revenues increased 36%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司的营收现在比星巴克在中国的业务还要高，而仅仅不到十年的时间。然而，由于公司门店迅速增长，最近的业绩很难解读。在公司的第一季度业绩中，总收入较去年同期增长了 42%。在第二季度，收入增长了 36%。</p>
</div><p>When we look at the comparable store sales from company-operated stores, we see that they fell 20% and 21% in the last two quarters, respectively. This larger drop compared to Starbucks is interesting, considering Luckin’s much lower price point. The price of a Luckin 16 oz latte is one-third that of Starbucks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当我们看公司经营门店的可比销售额时，我们可以看到在过去的两个季度里分别下降了 20% 和 21%。考虑到瑞幸的价格要低得多，这种较大的下降很有趣。一家 16 盎司拿铁的价格是星巴克的三分之一。</p>
</div><p>It could signal that through a period of low economic confidence, Starbucks has wealthier customers who are actually less affected than Luckin’s, causing a smaller drop. It could also be that the rapid store count growth is causing cannibalization, with new stores taking sales from existing ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能表明，在经济信心不足的时期，星巴克拥有更富裕的顾客，受影响比瑞幸的顾客更少，导致下降幅度较小。也可能是由于门店数量迅速增长导致了自相残杀，新店从现有店铺中夺走了销售额。</p>
</div><p>However, with such rapidly growing overall revenues compared to Starbucks, it might not matter. Management has stated its goal is to increase market share, and it is certainly doing that. It has increased its average monthly number of customers by 136% since Mar. 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，与星巴克相比，由于整体营收迅速增长，这可能并不重要。管理层表示其目标是增加市场份额，而且他们确实做到了。自 2023 年 3 月以来，公司的平均月客户数量增加了 136%。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Luckin Needs to Stay Aware of Challengers in This Ever-Competitive Space</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>瑞幸需要警惕这个竞争激烈的领域中的挑战者</strong></h2>
</div><p>Right now, it seems Luckin is winning the coffee war in China, especially after the company’s profits recovered nicely in Q2. Rapid expansion costs and a pricing battle in Q1 contributed to a $12 million loss; however, profit reached $120 million in Q2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前看来，瑞幸正在中国赢得咖啡战，尤其是在公司利润在第二季度得到很好恢复之后。在第一季度，快速扩张成本和价格战导致 1200 万美元的亏损；然而，第二季度利润达到了 1.2 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Luckin feels poised to continue winning, based on its already strong position and commitment to grow rapidly even if it results in a bad quarter. Luckin has to continue fighting off low-cost domestic competitors like Cotti and not dismiss Starbucks. It’s possible that Starbucks's new CEO, who takes over this month, could introduce a big change in Chinese strategy that could shake things up in this intense battle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞幸似乎有望继续取得胜利，基于其已经强劲的地位和承诺即使导致一个糟糕的季度也要快速增长。瑞幸必须继续抵御像 Cotti 这样的低成本国内竞争对手，并且不应忽视星巴克。星巴克的新 CEO 本月接任，可能会在这场激烈的战斗中引入一项重大变革。</p>
</div><p>→ The solution to fast food’s wage hike crisis (From Deal Maker)(Ad)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>→ 解决快餐工资上涨危机的方案（来自交易达人）（广告）</p>
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<h2>Should you invest $1,000 in Starbucks right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是否值得投资 1000 美元购买星巴克？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Starbucks, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑投资星巴克之前，您可能想听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Starbucks wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 追踪华尔街评级最高且表现最佳的研究分析师以及他们每天向客户推荐的股票。MarketBeat 已经确定了五家顶级分析师悄悄告诉他们的客户现在购买的股票... 而星巴克不在这份名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Starbucks currently has a &#34;Moderate Buy&#34; rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管星巴克目前在分析师中有 “中等买入” 评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

谁将在中国咖啡市场的竞争中脱颖而出？