<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC -0.39%) 不是一只股息股票，尽管有着约 14% 的巨大股息收益率。它是一只总回报股票，这基本上意味着要充分受益，您需要再投资股息。但在购买这家抵押房地产投资信托 (REIT) 之前，您需要了解 AGNC 的业务模式中的另一个公开秘密。</p>
<h2>AGNC Investment 是做什么的？</h2>
<p>重要的是要明白，AGNC Investment 不是您典型的拥有物业的 REIT。拥有物业的 REIT 相对简单：它们购买物业（如公寓大楼、仓库或商场），然后将物业出租给租户。这就好比您购买租赁住房。像 AGNC 这样的抵押 REIT 购买被打包成类似债券的抵押贷款。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODk0NTAvMjRfMDRfMTEtYS1oYW5kLXR1cm5pbmctdXAtYS1kaWFsLWxhYmVsZWQtcmlzay1fbWYtZGxvYWQtZ2V0dHktcmlzay1kaXZlcnNpZmljYXRpb24tc2FmZXR5LTEyMDB4Njc1LTEyODU1NGUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODk0NTAvMjRfMDRfMTEtYS1oYW5kLXR1cm5pbmctdXAtYS1kaWFsLWxhYmVsZWQtcmlzay1fbWYtZGxvYWQtZ2V0dHktcmlzay1kaXZlcnNpZmljYXRpb24tc2FmZXR5LTEyMDB4Njc1LTEyODU1NGUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>从这个角度看，AGNC 更像是债券基金，而不是传统的 REIT。然而，它仍然是一家公司，因此在业务融资方面有更多的自由度。这里的一个重要秘密是，像其他抵押 REIT 一样，AGNC 大量使用杠杆以增加股东回报。其目标是从抵押债券中获得的利息多于支付的利息成本。</p>
<p>2024 年第二季度末，AGNC Investment 的资产负债表显示，它已经质押了大约 550 亿美元的约 596 亿美元的代理证券（这是其抵押债券组合）。简单的计算显示，该公司基本上质押了其债券组合的约 92%。但&#34;质押&#34;是什么意思？</p>
<h2>AGNC 的杠杆增加了风险</h2>
<p>在公司的 10Q 报告（即向美国证券交易委员会提交的季度报告）中，它声明：</p>
<p>我们将我们的证券作为质押品用于与金融机构结构化的回购协议。可借款额取决于作为抵押品的证券的公允价值，该价值随着利率变化、证券类型和银行、抵押贷款金融和房地产行业的流动性条件而波动。如果我们质押的证券的公允价值下降，贷款人通常会要求我们提供额外的抵押品或偿还借款以重新建立约定的抵押品要求，称为&#34;追加保证金要求&#34;。</p>
<p>这里有很多内容需要解释。首先，质押基本上意味着公司将其抵押债券组合用作贷款的抵押品。但回到被质押的投资组合比例 -- 几乎全部，约 92% 左右！抵押贷款不像很少交易的建筑物。它们全天交易，因此它们的价值可能会迅速受到影响，AGNC 提供了可能导致价格波动的一些潜在因素（从利率到房地产市场动态）。</p>
<p>单独使用杠杆并不是一件坏事，但它增加了风险。当您使用大量杠杆时，特别是将 92% 的抵押债券组合作为抵押品时，这一点尤为明显。因此，投资者必须问，当事情不如计划那样顺利时会发生什么，即抵押品价值下降。那么，这时可能会出现追加保证金要求，这将要求 AGNC 提供额外的抵押品（几乎没有更多可供质押的）或偿还其借款。追加保证金要求可能意味着在一个不太适当的时机出售抵押债券。</p>
<p>尽管 AGNC Investment 没有遇到任何贷款问题，但它也没有经历过住房引发的大衰退的牛市。该公司于 2008 年 5 月上市（那可能是一个很好的起步时间，因为当时抵押市场处于深度低谷）。例如，曾经是前十大抵押贷款放款人的美国家庭抵押贷款公司在 2007 年破产。同年，新世纪金融也寻求破产保护。但在冠状病毒大流行期间，也有许多抵押 REIT 受到追加保证金要求的严重打击，包括 <strong>MFA Financial</strong>、<strong>Invesco Mortgage Capital</strong> 和 <strong>AG Mortgage Investment Trust</strong>。事实上，对追加保证金要求的担忧可能导致整个抵押 REIT 行业走低。</p>
<p>换句话说，当事情变糟时，它们可能会以戏剧性的方式变糟，因为 AGNC 可能会卷入抵押 REIT 的抛售，或者最终成为被迫卖家。下行趋势很快就会变成下行螺旋。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/533a40a8b94874bb6666e258b3444c7b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/533a40a8b94874bb6666e258b3444c7b.png"/></p>
<p>AGNC 数据由 YCharts 提供</p>
<h2>AGNC 不适合普通投资者</h2>
<p>AGNC Investment 的问题在于股息是其回报配置的重要组成部分，指出该股票的股息收益率约为 14%。然而，正如上面的图表所突出的那样，多年来股息一直被定期削减。股息保持较高是因为股价一直在跟随股息下降。如果您花费您的投资组合产生的股息收入，这将是一个糟糕的结果。这不是一只收入股票。</p>
<p>但如果您再投资股息，AGNC Investment 实际上已经成为一个正收益的投资。这是因为巨额股息购买了大量额外股份，使投资者能够从复利中受益。寻找抵押曝光的资产配置者可能会对此感兴趣。您只需要了解业务的动态，其中包括杠杆的附加风险。公司并没有隐藏这一事实，但它经常被忽视，因为它可能带来的下行风险并不经常发生。问题在于，当风险显现时，它可能迅速而痛苦地提醒您，杠杆可以增加利润和损失。</p>

美国资本代理公司

<p>美国资本代理公司（AGNC Investment）是一家抵押贷款房地产投资信托公司，提供约 14% 的显著股息率，但其运作更类似于债券基金而非传统的持有房地产的房地产投资信托。该公司采用高杠杆，将约 92% 的抵押债券投资组合作为贷款抵押物，增加了其风险。尽管 AGNC 尚未面临即时贷款问题，但历史表明，抵押贷款房地产投资信托在经济衰退期间可能遭受损失，导致潜在的追加保证金要求和强制性资产出售。由于股息在其回报配置中占据重要地位，该股的股息削减倾向对普通投资者构成了一种担忧</p>

<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC -0.39%) is not a dividend stock, despite the huge 14% or so dividend yield. It is a total return stock, which basically means to fully benefit here you need to reinvest dividends. But there's another open secret about AGNC's business model that you need to understand before you buy the mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC -0.39%) 不是一只股息股票，尽管有着约 14% 的巨大股息收益率。它是一只总回报股票，这基本上意味着要充分受益，您需要再投资股息。但在购买这家抵押房地产投资信托 (REIT) 之前，您需要了解 AGNC 的业务模式中的另一个公开秘密。</p>
</div><h2>What does AGNC Investment do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC Investment 是做什么的？</h2>
</div><p>It is important to understand that AGNC Investment is not your typical property-owning REIT. Property-owning REITs are fairly simple to understand: They buy a property (like an apartment building, warehouse, or mall) and then lease the property out to tenants. This is what you would do if you bought a rental home. Mortgage REITs like AGNC buy mortgages that have been pooled into bond-like securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是要明白，AGNC Investment 不是您典型的拥有物业的 REIT。拥有物业的 REIT 相对简单：它们购买物业（如公寓大楼、仓库或商场），然后将物业出租给租户。这就好比您购买租赁住房。像 AGNC 这样的抵押 REIT 购买被打包成类似债券的抵押贷款。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODk0NTAvMjRfMDRfMTEtYS1oYW5kLXR1cm5pbmctdXAtYS1kaWFsLWxhYmVsZWQtcmlzay1fbWYtZGxvYWQtZ2V0dHktcmlzay1kaXZlcnNpZmljYXRpb24tc2FmZXR5LTEyMDB4Njc1LTEyODU1NGUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F789450%2F24_04_11-a-hand-turning-up-a-dial-labeled-risk-_mf-dload-getty-risk-diversification-safety-1200x675-128554e.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>In this way, AGNC is more like a bond fund than a traditional REIT. However, it is still a company so it has more leeway in the way its business gets financed. The big open secret here is that AGNC, like other mortgage REITs, makes liberal use of leverage in an effort to enhance shareholder returns. The goal is to generate more in interest from the mortgage bonds than it pays in interest costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从这个角度看，AGNC 更像是债券基金，而不是传统的 REIT。然而，它仍然是一家公司，因此在业务融资方面有更多的自由度。这里的一个重要秘密是，像其他抵押 REIT 一样，AGNC 大量使用杠杆以增加股东回报。其目标是从抵押债券中获得的利息多于支付的利息成本。</p>
</div><p>At the end of the second quarter of 2024 AGNC Investment's balance sheet noted that it had pledged nearly $55 billion of its roughly $59.6 billion agency securities (this is its mortgage bond portfolio). Some simple math shows that the company has basically pledged roughly 92% of its bond portfolio. But what does &#34;pledged&#34; mean?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年第二季度末，AGNC Investment 的资产负债表显示，它已经质押了大约 550 亿美元的约 596 亿美元的代理证券（这是其抵押债券组合）。简单的计算显示，该公司基本上质押了其债券组合的约 92%。但&#34;质押&#34;是什么意思？</p>
</div><h2>AGNC's leverage increases risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 的杠杆增加了风险</h2>
</div><p>In the company's 10Q (which is its quarterly report to the SEC), it states that:</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在公司的 10Q 报告（即向美国证券交易委员会提交的季度报告）中，它声明：</p>
</div><p>We pledge our securities as collateral under our borrowings structured as repurchase agreements with financial institutions. Amounts available to be borrowed are dependent upon the fair value of the securities pledged as collateral, which fluctuates with changes in interest rates, type of security and liquidity conditions within the banking, mortgage finance and real estate industries. If the fair value of our pledged securities declines, lenders will typically require us to post additional collateral or pay down borrowings to reestablish agreed upon collateral requirements, referred to as &#34;margin calls.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们将我们的证券作为质押品用于与金融机构结构化的回购协议。可借款额取决于作为抵押品的证券的公允价值，该价值随着利率变化、证券类型和银行、抵押贷款金融和房地产行业的流动性条件而波动。如果我们质押的证券的公允价值下降，贷款人通常会要求我们提供额外的抵押品或偿还借款以重新建立约定的抵押品要求，称为&#34;追加保证金要求&#34;。</p>
</div><p>There's a lot to unpack there. For starters, pledging basically means the company is using its mortgage bond portfolio as collateral for loans. But go back to the percentage of the portfolio that is pledged -- virtually the entire thing, at 92% or so! Mortgage bonds aren't like buildings that trade infrequently. They trade all day long so their value can be impacted quickly, with AGNC offering just some of the possible catalysts (from interest rates to housing market dynamics) that could cause price volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里有很多内容需要解释。首先，质押基本上意味着公司将其抵押债券组合用作贷款的抵押品。但回到被质押的投资组合比例 -- 几乎全部，约 92% 左右！抵押贷款不像很少交易的建筑物。它们全天交易，因此它们的价值可能会迅速受到影响，AGNC 提供了可能导致价格波动的一些潜在因素（从利率到房地产市场动态）。</p>
</div><p>In and of itself using leverage isn't a bad thing, but it increases risk. That's particularly true when you use a lot of leverage, like pledging 92% of your mortgage bond portfolio as collateral. So investors have to ask what happens when things don't go as well as planned, meaning the value of the collateral falls. Well, that's when a margin call might come up, which would require AGNC to post additional collateral (there's not much more to pledge) or pay down its borrowings. A margin call would likely mean selling mortgage bonds at what would, presumably, be an inopportune time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>单独使用杠杆并不是一件坏事，但它增加了风险。当您使用大量杠杆时，特别是将 92% 的抵押债券组合作为抵押品时，这一点尤为明显。因此，投资者必须问，当事情不如计划那样顺利时会发生什么，即抵押品价值下降。那么，这时可能会出现追加保证金要求，这将要求 AGNC 提供额外的抵押品（几乎没有更多可供质押的）或偿还其借款。追加保证金要求可能意味着在一个不太适当的时机出售抵押债券。</p>
</div><p>Although AGNC Investment hasn't had any problems with the loans it has taken out, it also didn't live through the bull brunt of the housing-led Great Recession, having come public in May, 2008. (That might have been a great time to start out, since the mortgage market at that point was in a deep downturn.) For example, American Home Mortgage, once a top-10 mortgage lender, went bankrupt in 2007. New Century Financial sought out bankruptcy protections the same year. But there were numerous mortgage REITs that were hit hard by margin calls during the coronavirus pandemic, as well, including <strong>MFA Financial</strong>, <strong>Invesco Mortgage Capital</strong>, and <strong>AG Mortgage Investment Trust</strong>. In fact, the mere fear of a margin call can lead the entire mortgage REIT sector lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 AGNC Investment 没有遇到任何贷款问题，但它也没有经历过住房引发的大衰退的牛市。该公司于 2008 年 5 月上市（那可能是一个很好的起步时间，因为当时抵押市场处于深度低谷）。例如，曾经是前十大抵押贷款放款人的美国家庭抵押贷款公司在 2007 年破产。同年，新世纪金融也寻求破产保护。但在冠状病毒大流行期间，也有许多抵押 REIT 受到追加保证金要求的严重打击，包括 <strong>MFA Financial</strong>、<strong>Invesco Mortgage Capital</strong> 和 <strong>AG Mortgage Investment Trust</strong>。事实上，对追加保证金要求的担忧可能导致整个抵押 REIT 行业走低。</p>
</div><p>In other words, when things go south they can go south in dramatic fashion because AGNC might get caught up in a mortgage REIT sell off or, perhaps, end up being a forced seller itself. Downturns can quickly turn into downward spirals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，当事情变糟时，它们可能会以戏剧性的方式变糟，因为 AGNC 可能会卷入抵押 REIT 的抛售，或者最终成为被迫卖家。下行趋势很快就会变成下行螺旋。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/533a40a8b94874bb6666e258b3444c7b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/533a40a8b94874bb6666e258b3444c7b.png"/></p>
<p>AGNC data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 数据由 YCharts 提供</p>
</div><h2>AGNC is not meant for the average investor</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 不适合普通投资者</h2>
</div><p>The problem with AGNC Investment is that dividends are an important part of its return profile, noting that the stock has a roughly 14% dividend yield. Only, as the chart above highlights, the dividend has been cut regularly for years. The yield has stayed high because the stock price has tracked the dividend lower. That's a terrible outcome if you spend the dividend income your portfolio generates. This is not an income stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC Investment 的问题在于股息是其回报配置的重要组成部分，指出该股票的股息收益率约为 14%。然而，正如上面的图表所突出的那样，多年来股息一直被定期削减。股息保持较高是因为股价一直在跟随股息下降。如果您花费您的投资组合产生的股息收入，这将是一个糟糕的结果。这不是一只收入股票。</p>
</div><p>But if you reinvested the dividends, AGNC Investment has actually turned out to be a positive investment. That's because the huge dividend is buying a lot of additional shares, allowing investors to benefit from compounding. Asset allocators looking for mortgage exposure will probably be interested here. You just need to go in understanding the dynamics of the business, which involves the added risk of leverage. The company isn't hiding that fact, but it often gets overlooked because the downside it can cause isn't a frequent occurrence. The problem is that when the risk does make itself known it can be a quick and painful reminder that leverage can increase both profits and losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果您再投资股息，AGNC Investment 实际上已经成为一个正收益的投资。这是因为巨额股息购买了大量额外股份，使投资者能够从复利中受益。寻找抵押曝光的资产配置者可能会对此感兴趣。您只需要了解业务的动态，其中包括杠杆的附加风险。公司并没有隐藏这一事实，但它经常被忽视，因为它可能带来的下行风险并不经常发生。问题在于，当风险显现时，它可能迅速而痛苦地提醒您，杠杆可以增加利润和损失。</p>
</div>

美国资本代理公司的致命弱点是公开的秘密