<p><strong>Zscaler</strong>（ZS -3.37%）的股价在 9 月 4 日公布最新财报后下跌了 19%。截至 2024 财年第四季度（截至 7 月 31 日），这家网络安全公司的营收同比增长 30%，达到 5.93 亿美元，超出分析师预期 2,500 万美元。调整后的每股收益（EPS）增长 38%，达到 0.88 美元，超出共识预期 0.19 美元。</p>
<p>这些主要数据看起来健康，但其业绩展望并未打动投资者。让我们看看这家不受青睐的高增长股票在今年下跌近 30% 后是否仍值得购买。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODk4OTUvaXQtc2VjdXJpdHktZW1wbG95ZWUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODk4OTUvaXQtc2VjdXJpdHktZW1wbG95ZWUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Zscaler 的高增长时代即将结束</h2>
<p>Zscaler 开发 “零信任” 服务，将每个人，包括公司的高管，视为潜在威胁。它只提供基于云的工具，不需要任何现场设备。这种轻量化的方法通常比依赖设备的服务更便宜、更具黏性，并且更容易随着组织的扩张而扩展。</p>
<p>Zscaler 于 2018 年上市。从 2019 财年到 2024 财年，营收以 48% 的复合年增长率增长。这一增长是由零信任和基于云的网络安全市场的快速扩张推动的。但在过去一年中，其计费额和总营收的增长有所放缓。</p>
<p>|</p>
<p>指标 |</p>
<p>2023 年第四季度 |</p>
<p>2024 年第一季度 |</p>
<p>2024 年第二季度 |</p>
<p>2024 年第三季度 |</p>
<p>2024 年第四季度 |
|</p>
<p>计费额增长（同比）|</p>
<p>38% |</p>
<p>34% |</p>
<p>27% |</p>
<p>30% |</p>
<p>27% |
|</p>
<p>营收增长（同比）|</p>
<p>43% |</p>
<p>40% |</p>
<p>35% |</p>
<p>32% |</p>
<p>30% |</p>
<p>数据来源：Zscaler。同比 = 同比增长率。</p>
<p>Zscaler 在 2024 财年营收增长 34%，但预计 2025 财年仅增长 20% 至 21%。这将是自首次公开募股（IPO）以来最慢的年度营收增长率。主要归因于宏观环境的阻力，导致更多公司审视其软件支出。</p>
<p>但它也可能面临来自更大、更多元化的网络安全公司（如 <strong>CrowdStrike</strong>（纳斯达克股票代码：CRWD）和 <strong>Palo Alto Networks</strong>（纳斯达克股票代码：PANW））更激烈的竞争，这两家公司都在将类似的零信任工具整合到其端点安全平台中。分析师预计，从 2024 财年到 2026 财年，Zscaler 的营收将以 21% 的复合年增长率增长。</p>
<h2>随着增长放缓，支出加大</h2>
<p>自上市以来，Zscaler 在普遍公认的会计原则（GAAP）基础上一直未盈利。但在 2024 财年，其非通用会计原则运营利润率扩大了 5 个百分点至 20%，非通用 EPS 增长了 78%。</p>
<p>然而，预计在 2025 财年，随着扩大销售和营销团队以追求新客户，其非通用 EPS 将下降 10% 至 12%。分析师此前预计增长 4%。</p>
<p>这种比预期更陡的下降使投资者感到不安，因为它与营收增长放缓同时发生，并暗示其正在失去定价权。这也意味着 Zscaler 正在饱和其零信任领域，可能需要通过提供额外的网络安全服务来积极扩展其生态系统以保持增长。但这样做可能会使其利润率受到打击，使公司与 CrowdStrike 和 Palo Alto 等更大的公司竞争。</p>
<h2>关注其债务和稀释情况</h2>
<p>截至 2024 财年末，Zscaler 的债务资产比率为 2.7。这大约是 2018 财年末 0.9 倍的三倍。过去六年中，其股份数量增加了 24%。</p>
<p>即使在最新的财报后下跌之后，Zscaler 看起来并不便宜，今年调整后的收益为 57 倍。CrowdStrike，尽管在 7 月触发了灾难性的 IT 中断，但仍然增长更快，交易倍数为 70 倍。Palo Alto 增长速度低于这两家公司，前瞻倍数为 54 倍。与 Zscaler 不同，CrowdStrike 和 Palo Alto 根据 GAAP 标准均已实现稳定盈利。</p>
<h2>现在是购买 Zscaler 的合适时机吗？</h2>
<p>Zscaler 的营收增长放缓、支出上升、高杠杆、持续稀释和溢价估值使其成为一只难以推荐的股票。其内部人士在过去 12 个月中卖出的股票数量是他们购买的股票数量的 6 倍多。</p>
<p>Zscaler 仍在增长，但在未来几年将面临更严峻的宏观和竞争挑战。这就是为什么在其盈利增长稳定并其估值降至更可持续水平之前，我不会碰它的股票。</p>

<p>Zscaler 的股价在令人失望的财报后下跌了 19%，今年已累计下跌近 30%。这家网络安全公司报告称，其营收同比增长了 30%，但未来增长前景低于预期，预计 2025 财年仅增长 20-21%。Zscaler 尚未实现盈利，面临着高债务水平和不断下滑的每股收益，因为公司在营销方面投入巨资。分析师们对其日益激烈的竞争和负面的内部交易趋势感到担忧，这使得在当前估值水平下难以推荐购买该股</p>

<p><strong>Zscaler</strong>'s (ZS -3.37%) stock price sank 19% on Sept. 4 after its latest earnings report came out. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, which ended on July 31, the cybersecurity company's revenue rose 30% year over year to $593 million and exceeded analysts' expectations by $25 million. Its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew 38% to $0.88 and cleared the consensus forecast by $0.19.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Zscaler</strong>（ZS -3.37%）的股价在 9 月 4 日公布最新财报后下跌了 19%。截至 2024 财年第四季度（截至 7 月 31 日），这家网络安全公司的营收同比增长 30%，达到 5.93 亿美元，超出分析师预期 2,500 万美元。调整后的每股收益（EPS）增长 38%，达到 0.88 美元，超出共识预期 0.19 美元。</p>
</div><p>Those headline numbers seemed healthy, but its guidance didn't impress the bulls. Let's see if this out-of-favor hypergrowth stock is still worth buying after declining nearly 30% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些主要数据看起来健康，但其业绩展望并未打动投资者。让我们看看这家不受青睐的高增长股票在今年下跌近 30% 后是否仍值得购买。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODk4OTUvaXQtc2VjdXJpdHktZW1wbG95ZWUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F789895%2Fit-security-employee.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Zscaler's hypergrowth days are ending</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Zscaler 的高增长时代即将结束</h2>
</div><p>Zscaler develops &#34;zero trust&#34; services, which treat everyone, including a company's top executives, as a potential threat. It only provides its tools as cloud-native services, which don't require any on-site appliances. That lightweight approach is usually cheaper, stickier, and easier to scale than appliance-powered services as an organization expands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zscaler 开发 “零信任” 服务，将每个人，包括公司的高管，视为潜在威胁。它只提供基于云的工具，不需要任何现场设备。这种轻量化的方法通常比依赖设备的服务更便宜、更具黏性，并且更容易随着组织的扩张而扩展。</p>
</div><p>Zscaler went public in 2018. From fiscal 2019 to fiscal 2024, revenue grew at a compound annual rate of 48%. That growth was driven by the rapid expansion of the zero trust and cloud-native cybersecurity markets. But over the past year, its growth in calculated billings and total revenue cooled off.</p>
<p>|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zscaler 于 2018 年上市。从 2019 财年到 2024 财年，营收以 48% 的复合年增长率增长。这一增长是由零信任和基于云的网络安全市场的快速扩张推动的。但在过去一年中，其计费额和总营收的增长有所放缓。</p>
<p>|</p>
</div><p>Metric |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>指标 |</p>
</div><p>Q4 2023 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年第四季度 |</p>
</div><p>Q1 2024 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年第一季度 |</p>
</div><p>Q2 2024 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年第二季度 |</p>
</div><p>Q3 2024 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年第三季度 |</p>
</div><p>Q4 2024 |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年第四季度 |
|</p>
</div><p>Calculated billings growth (YOY) |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>计费额增长（同比）|</p>
</div><p>38% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>38% |</p>
</div><p>34% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>34% |</p>
</div><p>27% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>27% |</p>
</div><p>30% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30% |</p>
</div><p>27% |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>27% |
|</p>
</div><p>Revenue growth (YOY) |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>营收增长（同比）|</p>
</div><p>43% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>43% |</p>
</div><p>40% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>40% |</p>
</div><p>35% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>35% |</p>
</div><p>32% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>32% |</p>
</div><p>30% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: Zscaler. YOY = Year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Zscaler。同比 = 同比增长率。</p>
</div><p>Zscaler's revenue rose 34% in fiscal 2024, but it only expects 20% to 21% growth in fiscal 2025. That would represent its slowest annual revenue growth rate since its initial public offering (IPO). It mainly attributed that slowdown to the macro headwinds, which are driving more companies to scrutinize their software spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zscaler 在 2024 财年营收增长 34%，但预计 2025 财年仅增长 20% 至 21%。这将是自首次公开募股（IPO）以来最慢的年度营收增长率。主要归因于宏观环境的阻力，导致更多公司审视其软件支出。</p>
</div><p>But it could also be facing tougher competition from bigger and more diversified cybersecurity companies like <strong>CrowdStrike</strong>(NASDAQ: CRWD) and <strong>Palo Alto Networks</strong>(NASDAQ: PANW), which are both integrating similar zero trust tools into their endpoint security platforms. From fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2026, analysts expect Zscaler's revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 21%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但它也可能面临来自更大、更多元化的网络安全公司（如 <strong>CrowdStrike</strong>（纳斯达克股票代码：CRWD）和 <strong>Palo Alto Networks</strong>（纳斯达克股票代码：PANW））更激烈的竞争，这两家公司都在将类似的零信任工具整合到其端点安全平台中。分析师预计，从 2024 财年到 2026 财年，Zscaler 的营收将以 21% 的复合年增长率增长。</p>
</div><h2>It's ramping up its spending as its growth cools off</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>随着增长放缓，支出加大</h2>
</div><p>Zscaler has stayed unprofitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis ever since its IPO. But in fiscal 2024, its non-GAAP operating margin expanded 5 percentage points to 20% as its non-GAAP EPS increased 78%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自上市以来，Zscaler 在普遍公认的会计原则（GAAP）基础上一直未盈利。但在 2024 财年，其非通用会计原则运营利润率扩大了 5 个百分点至 20%，非通用 EPS 增长了 78%。</p>
</div><p>However, it expects its non-GAAP EPS to decline 10% to 12% in fiscal 2025 as it expands its sales and marketing teams to pursue new customers. Analysts had previously anticipated 4% growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，预计在 2025 财年，随着扩大销售和营销团队以追求新客户，其非通用 EPS 将下降 10% 至 12%。分析师此前预计增长 4%。</p>
</div><p>That steeper-than-expected decline rattled the bulls because it coincided with its slowing revenue growth and suggested it was losing its pricing power. It also implies Zscaler is saturating its zero-trust niche and might need to aggressively expand its ecosystem with additional cybersecurity services to keep growing. But doing so could crush its margins by pitting the company against bigger companies like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种比预期更陡的下降使投资者感到不安，因为它与营收增长放缓同时发生，并暗示其正在失去定价权。这也意味着 Zscaler 正在饱和其零信任领域，可能需要通过提供额外的网络安全服务来积极扩展其生态系统以保持增长。但这样做可能会使其利润率受到打击，使公司与 CrowdStrike 和 Palo Alto 等更大的公司竞争。</p>
</div><h2>Pay attention to its debt and dilution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关注其债务和稀释情况</h2>
</div><p>Zscaler had a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.7 at the end of fiscal 2024. That's roughly triple its debt-to-equity ratio of 0.9 at the end of fiscal 2018. It also increased its share count by 24% over the past six years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2024 财年末，Zscaler 的债务资产比率为 2.7。这大约是 2018 财年末 0.9 倍的三倍。过去六年中，其股份数量增加了 24%。</p>
</div><p>Even after its latest post-earnings decline, Zscaler doesn't look cheap at 57 times this year's adjusted earnings. CrowdStrike, which is still growing faster even after triggering a disastrous IT outage in July, trades at 70 times forward earnings. Palo Alto, which is growing slower than both companies, has a lower forward multiple of 54. Unlike Zscaler, both CrowdStrike and Palo Alto are firmly profitable by GAAP measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在最新的财报后下跌之后，Zscaler 看起来并不便宜，今年调整后的收益为 57 倍。CrowdStrike，尽管在 7 月触发了灾难性的 IT 中断，但仍然增长更快，交易倍数为 70 倍。Palo Alto 增长速度低于这两家公司，前瞻倍数为 54 倍。与 Zscaler 不同，CrowdStrike 和 Palo Alto 根据 GAAP 标准均已实现稳定盈利。</p>
</div><h2>Is it the right time to buy Zscaler?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是购买 Zscaler 的合适时机吗？</h2>
</div><p>Zscaler's cooling revenue growth, rising expenses, high leverage, ongoing dilution, and premium valuation all make it a tough stock to recommend. Its insiders also sold more than 6 times as many shares as they bought over the past 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zscaler 的营收增长放缓、支出上升、高杠杆、持续稀释和溢价估值使其成为一只难以推荐的股票。其内部人士在过去 12 个月中卖出的股票数量是他们购买的股票数量的 6 倍多。</p>
</div><p>Zscaler is still growing, but it will face tougher macro and competitive challenges over the next few years. That's why I wouldn't touch its stock until its earnings growth stabilizes and its valuations cool off to more sustainable levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zscaler 仍在增长，但在未来几年将面临更严峻的宏观和竞争挑战。这就是为什么在其盈利增长稳定并其估值降至更可持续水平之前，我不会碰它的股票。</p>
</div>

2024 年下跌近 30%：Zscaler 的股票是否值得购买？