<p>今年表现最差的大市值股之一的最大阻碍因素正在逐渐消退。<strong>天狼星 XM 广播控股公司</strong>(SIRI) 已完成与传媒大亨约翰·马龙控股的卫星广播平台的合并。<strong>自由天狼星 XM 集团</strong> 的追踪股曾经是一个干扰因素，并且在历史上以较大折扣交易，但在周一收盘后正式并入主公司。</p>
<p>可能会有一些暂时的混乱。周二开盘时进行的 1 比 10 的股票合并可能会令人震惊，特别是考虑到大多数选择这种通常是绝望之举的上市资格目的的公司的命运。股票数量本身并没有增加，但由于天狼星 XM 的更大流通股，可能会影响短期交易行为。过去两年中持有追踪股以赚取逐渐减少的折扣的套利者现在可能会出售，因为使命已经完成。</p>
<p>目前发生了很多事情。对于备受煎熬的天狼星 XM 股东来说，等到尘埃落定时应该是值得的。让我们深入探讨为什么这可能是机会主义者一直在等待的底部。</p>
<h2>一个新的声音</h2>
<p>这不是天狼星 XM 第一次通过合并两个公开交易实体来简化情况。15 年前，直到监管机构批准了天狼星和竞争对手 XM 的合并，才有了两家增长但无利润的卫星广播提供商，从而创造了卫星广播垄断。天狼星 XM 不再是增长股。在过去 10 年中，它没有实现有机的两位数营收增长。然而，该平台已经成为一个可预测盈利的媒体巨头。</p>
<p>今年股价下跌了 51%，使其成为 2024 年市值超过 100 亿美元的仅有五只股票之一，股价下跌超过一半。追踪股的期待已久并没有激发投资社区的兴奋。自今年年初以来，业务也并没有出现实质性恶化。业务模式是一个长期逐渐消退的广播轨道。没有人会对营收增长感到惊讶，现在订阅人数也开始略微下降。这并不意味着天狼星 XM 今年的市值应该减半，或者其负债累累的企业价值在此期间下降超过 25%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTAyNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtODIxMjI1NDM0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTAyNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtODIxMjI1NDM0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>一个不完美股票的完美价格</h2>
<p>天狼星 XM 在周二重申了早前的指引。它继续预计 2024 年营收为 87.5 亿美元，调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）为 27 亿美元。它将自由现金流预期从 12 亿美元调整为 10 亿美元，但这 2000 万美元的减少与交易和自由天狼星 XM 控股公司的历史性流出有关。业务本身并没有受损。</p>
<p>收入投资者将注意到丰厚的股息将继续发放。股票拆分适当地将每股股息调整为每年约 0.27 美元。天狼星 XM 的股息率仍然略高于 4%，就像周一一样。</p>
<p>问题仍然存在。天狼星 XM 拥有 3300 万订户，但比年初减少了 61.8 万个账户。流失率接近历史最低，但天狼星 XM 无法吸引年轻司机像一代前签约的人那样热情地加入平台。这并不意味着事情会以糟糕的方式结束。</p>
<p>天狼星 XM 有时间。如果营收和订户缓慢减少，这种可扩展的商业模式的盈利能力将受到考验，但创造 10 位数的自由现金流使其有时间做正确的事情，并有能力通过收购重返增长。</p>
<p>估值仍然很合理。天狼星 XM 的市盈率不到 9 倍。分析师们预计 2025 年会出现营收和利润增长，即使在这个对股票而言充满悲观情绪的环境中，这可能看起来是错误的。天狼星 XM 是一个便宜且不同的媒体股，市场在 2024 年已经忘记了它。一旦周二的股票拆分的最初郁闷过去，现在可能是再次记住这个特定巨头的好时机。</p>

天狼星XM广播

<p>天狼星 XM 广播已完成与约翰·马龙持有的股份合并，吸收了自由天狼星 XM 集团的追踪股。尽管今年股价下跌了 51%，但该公司仍保持着盈利模式，拥有 3300 万订户。最近进行的 1 比 10 的股票逆向拆分可能会引起混淆，但分析师预测到 2025 年将会恢复增长。目前股价不到盈利的 9 倍，使其成为投资者的吸引选项，因为该公司继续提供超过 4% 的股息</p>

<p>The biggest thing holding back one of this year's worst large-cap performers is now fading in the rearview mirror. <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>(SIRI) has now completed its combination with media mogul John Malone's controlling stake in the satellite radio platform. The <strong>Liberty Sirius XM Group</strong> tracking shares that were a distraction and historically traded at a wide discount to the common shares were officially absorbed into the main company after Monday's market close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年表现最差的大市值股之一的最大阻碍因素正在逐渐消退。<strong>天狼星 XM 广播控股公司</strong>(SIRI) 已完成与传媒大亨约翰·马龙控股的卫星广播平台的合并。<strong>自由天狼星 XM 集团</strong> 的追踪股曾经是一个干扰因素，并且在历史上以较大折扣交易，但在周一收盘后正式并入主公司。</p>
</div><p>There will be some transitory confusion. The 1-for-10 reverse stock split that took place at Tuesday's opening may prove jarring, especially given the poor fate of most companies that have chosen to go this typically desperate route for listing eligibility purposes. The share count itself isn't expanding, but with a larger float of Sirius XM it could impact near-term trading behavior on the long and short side of the trade. Some arbs that were in the tracking shares to cash in on the gradually thinning discount over the last two years could sell now that the mission is complete.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能会有一些暂时的混乱。周二开盘时进行的 1 比 10 的股票合并可能会令人震惊，特别是考虑到大多数选择这种通常是绝望之举的上市资格目的的公司的命运。股票数量本身并没有增加，但由于天狼星 XM 的更大流通股，可能会影响短期交易行为。过去两年中持有追踪股以赚取逐渐减少的折扣的套利者现在可能会出售，因为使命已经完成。</p>
</div><p>There's a lot happening right now. It should be worth it for suffering Sirius XM shareholders by the time the dust clears. Let's dive into why this could be the bottom that opportunists were waiting for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前发生了很多事情。对于备受煎熬的天狼星 XM 股东来说，等到尘埃落定时应该是值得的。让我们深入探讨为什么这可能是机会主义者一直在等待的底部。</p>
</div><h2>A new sound</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一个新的声音</h2>
</div><p>This isn't the first time that Sirius XM has tried to streamline a situation by combining two publicly traded entities. There were two growing but profitless satellite radio providers until regulators approved the combination of Sirius and rival XM to create a monopoly in satellite radio 15 years ago. Sirius XM is no longer a growth stock. It hasn't posted organic double-digit revenue growth in 10 years. However, the platform has become a predictably profitable media giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不是天狼星 XM 第一次通过合并两个公开交易实体来简化情况。15 年前，直到监管机构批准了天狼星和竞争对手 XM 的合并，才有了两家增长但无利润的卫星广播提供商，从而创造了卫星广播垄断。天狼星 XM 不再是增长股。在过去 10 年中，它没有实现有机的两位数营收增长。然而，该平台已经成为一个可预测盈利的媒体巨头。</p>
</div><p>The stock has shed 51% of its value this year, making it one of just five stocks with market caps north of $10 billion to be cut by more than half in 2024. The long-anticipated end of the tracking shares hasn't excited the investing community. It's also not as if the business has deteriorated substantially since the start of this year. The business model is a radio track that's been slowly fading out for a long time. No one is surprised by revenue growth and now the subscriber count turning marginally negative. It doesn't mean that Sirius XM's market cap deserves to be halved this year or its debt-saddled enterprise value off by more than 25% in that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年股价下跌了 51%，使其成为 2024 年市值超过 100 亿美元的仅有五只股票之一，股价下跌超过一半。追踪股的期待已久并没有激发投资社区的兴奋。自今年年初以来，业务也并没有出现实质性恶化。业务模式是一个长期逐渐消退的广播轨道。没有人会对营收增长感到惊讶，现在订阅人数也开始略微下降。这并不意味着天狼星 XM 今年的市值应该减半，或者其负债累累的企业价值在此期间下降超过 25%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTAyNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtODIxMjI1NDM0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F790267%2Fgettyimages-821225434.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A perfect price for an imperfect stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一个不完美股票的完美价格</h2>
</div><p>Sirius XM reiterated its earlier guidance on Tuesday. It continues to model $8.75 billion in revenue and $2.7 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in 2024. It did adjust its free-cash-flow projection from $1.2 billion to $1 billion, but that $200 million haircut is related to the transaction and historical outflows at Liberty Sirius XM Holdings. The business itself is not impaired.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天狼星 XM 在周二重申了早前的指引。它继续预计 2024 年营收为 87.5 亿美元，调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）为 27 亿美元。它将自由现金流预期从 12 亿美元调整为 10 亿美元，但这 2000 万美元的减少与交易和自由天狼星 XM 控股公司的历史性流出有关。业务本身并没有受损。</p>
</div><p>Income investors will note that the chunky dividend will continue. The reverse split is appropriately tweaking the per-share payout tenfold to roughly $0.27 a share over the course of the year. Sirius XM still yields just over 4% the way it did on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收入投资者将注意到丰厚的股息将继续发放。股票拆分适当地将每股股息调整为每年约 0.27 美元。天狼星 XM 的股息率仍然略高于 4%，就像周一一样。</p>
</div><p>The question marks also remain. Sirius XM has a whopping 33 million subscribers, but it has 618,000 fewer accounts than it had when the year began. Churn is near historic lows, but Sirius XM can't get younger drivers to hop on the platform with the same gusto as those who signed on a generation ago. It doesn't mean that things will end badly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题仍然存在。天狼星 XM 拥有 3300 万订户，但比年初减少了 61.8 万个账户。流失率接近历史最低，但天狼星 XM 无法吸引年轻司机像一代前签约的人那样热情地加入平台。这并不意味着事情会以糟糕的方式结束。</p>
</div><p>Sirius XM has time. The profitability of this scalable business model will be tested if revenue and subscribers shrink slowly, but generating 10-figure free cash flow gives it time to get it right and the means to buy its way back to growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天狼星 XM 有时间。如果营收和订户缓慢减少，这种可扩展的商业模式的盈利能力将受到考验，但创造 10 位数的自由现金流使其有时间做正确的事情，并有能力通过收购重返增长。</p>
</div><p>The valuation continues to be kind. Sirius XM is trading for less than 9 times earnings. Analysts see a return to top- and bottom-line growth in 2025, even if that may seem misguided in this otherwise bearish climate for the stock. Sirius XM is a cheap and differentiated media stock that the market has forgotten about in 2024. As soon as the initial malaise of Tuesday's reverse split passes, it could be a good time to remember this particular titan again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值仍然很合理。天狼星 XM 的市盈率不到 9 倍。分析师们预计 2025 年会出现营收和利润增长，即使在这个对股票而言充满悲观情绪的环境中，这可能看起来是错误的。天狼星 XM 是一个便宜且不同的媒体股，市场在 2024 年已经忘记了它。一旦周二的股票拆分的最初郁闷过去，现在可能是再次记住这个特定巨头的好时机。</p>
</div>

天狼星 XM 的股票是否终于准备好在 2024 年反弹？