<p>消费品股票，如可口可乐（KO）、百事可乐（PEP）和宝洁（PG），在宏观经济不确定时期往往表现出色，因为它们具有反周期和防御性质。虽然我对这三家行业巨头保持看涨态度，但我将使用 TipRanks 的股票比较工具来解释为什么基于一些关键因素，我认为 KO 目前是这三者中最佳选择。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-17.55-1024x416.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-17.55-1024x416.jpeg"/></p>
<h2><strong>可口可乐（KO）</strong></h2>
<p>从可口可乐开始，我对该公司的看涨论点突出了其反周期韧性，特别是在经济不确定和高利率时期，例如我们目前正在经历的时期。</p>
<p>KO 的股价在整个年份表现出色，尤其是在公司于七月份报告第二季度收益后，上涨超过 20%。可口可乐意外地报告第二季度收入增长了 3%，与预期下降相反。尽管消费者支出趋势看似疲弱且价格上涨，但该公司还是提高了年度指引。</p>
<p>这家标志性饮料公司报告价格/混合增长了 9%，表明其在提高价格或销售更高比例的高端产品方面取得成功。可口可乐现在预测全年有机销售增长率为 9% 到 10%，略高于先前的预测。此外，它预计调整后的利润增长为 5% 到 6%，高于先前的 4% 到 5% 的增长预期。</p>
<h2><strong>KO 的估值、股息和华尔街共识</strong></h2>
<p>即使接近历史高位，可口可乐的溢价估值看似合理，符合看涨前景。尽管其历史高价水平，可口可乐股票的前瞻市盈率为 25 倍，约高出行业平均水平 40%，但仅高出其自身五年历史平均水平 3%。</p>
<p>该公司对于长期投资者来说仍然是一个稳定的收入投资。尽管股息率目前不到 3%，支付比率为 67.7%，但这并不一定是弱点的表现。事实上，自 2023 年 10 月以来，KO 股价已上涨近 40%，这解释了股价与股息率之间的反向关系。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.03-1024x225.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.03-1024x225.jpeg"/></p>
<p>此外，根据华尔街分析师 19 个评级中的 12 个买入建议，KO 股票持有 “中等买入” 共识评级，为饮料公司设定了 70.56 美元的平均目标价。尽管存在乐观情绪，但这一目标价基于最新股价显示了 0.82% 的下行风险。</p>
<h2><strong>百事可乐（PEP）</strong></h2>
<p>与其主要竞争对手可口可乐不同，百事可乐今年的表现更加波动。这家零食食品和饮料公司正在应对艰难的比较和消费者支出疲软的影响。最近影响百事可乐防御性看涨论点的关键因素之一是其第二季度业绩，尤其是在 Frito-Lay 部门内的营收表现不佳。</p>
<p>该公司报告北美零食类别销量下降了 4%，部分原因是 GLP-1 药物的出现，这些药物抑制食欲，可能导致零食购买减少。</p>
<p>此外，百事可乐报告其产品类别和地理区域的有效净定价增长了 5%，导致总有机销量下降了 3%。百事可乐已经连续一年半提高价格。随着持续增加的有效净定价，消费者现在开始收缩。这种转变代表了今年的一个重大变化。</p>
<h2><strong>PEP 的估值、股息和华尔街共识</strong></h2>
<p>在考虑其当前估值时，将百事可乐纳入投资组合的理由变得更加强有力。该股票的前瞻市盈率为 21.7 倍，相比其五年历史平均水平，折让了 10.4%。</p>
<p>作为一项收入投资，百事可乐的股息率略低于 3%，但比其五年平均水平高约 7.5%。该公司在第一季度将股息提高了 7%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.01-1024x230.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.01-1024x230.jpeg"/></p>
<p>最后，华尔街对百事可乐的共识是 “中等买入”。分析师意见不一，有九个买入和八个持有评级。PEP 股票的平均目标价为 186.35 美元，暗示着相对于当前价格的 4.50% 的上涨潜力。</p>
<h2><strong>宝洁（PG）</strong></h2>
<p>最后，远离饮料巨头，宝洁作为消费品领域的领导者，以其在各种经济周期中的类似韧性而著称，这是其投资论点中的一个关键正面因素。</p>
<p>宝洁最新数据显示，2024 财年（截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日）标志着其连续第六年至少实现 4% 的有机销售增长。尽管受到消费者支出和通货膨胀的阻力，尤其是自疫情爆发以来，PG 股价今年迄今上涨了近 20%。</p>
<p>P&amp;G 在第四季度看到了微小的收入下降。该季度的营收同比下降了 0.1%，至 205 亿美元，略低于预期，引发了一波短期反应。事实上，缓慢增长一直是一个反复出现的主题，2024 财年的有机增长率为 4%，是过去五年中最低的。</p>
<h2><strong>PG 的估值、股息和华尔街共识</strong></h2>
<p>P&amp;G 投资论点中的一个关键问题是其高估值，尽管这并不意味着它作为低风险投资不合理。该股票的前瞻市盈率为 25.2 倍，约高出消费品行业平均水平 40%。但即使接近历史高位，P&amp;G 的估值仅高出其五年平均水平 2.5%。</p>
<p>在股息方面，P&amp;G 提供 2.3% 的股息率，低于可口可乐和百事可乐。此外，PG 的股息率仍然比公司五年平均水平低近 8%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.06-1024x200.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.06-1024x200.jpeg"/></p>
<p>分析师们对宝洁公司（P&amp;G）也持乐观态度。根据 13 个买入评级和 6 个持有评级，股票获得了 “中等买入” 共识。然而，平均股价目标为 176.50 美元，仅比最新价格上涨了 0.43%。</p>
<h2><strong>结论 – 可口可乐脱颖而出</strong></h2>
<p>尽管我对可口可乐（KO）、百事可乐（PEP）和宝洁公司（PG）的长期前景持看涨态度，并认为这三者都是平衡投资组合中值得添加的资产，但如果我今天必须选择一个，我会选择可口可乐。</p>
<p>尽管可口可乐的估值较高，但我认为其更强的防御吸引力和产品战略证明了其应获得更高的估值倍数，特别是与百事可乐相比。最近的结果显示，与百事可乐和宝洁公司相比，可口可乐表现出更强的抵御消费者支出疲软的能力。</p>
<p>披露</p>

可口可乐

<p>消费品股票如可口可乐（KO）、百事可乐（PEP）和宝洁（PG）在经济不确定性时备受青睐。可口可乐因其强劲的第二季度业绩、提高年度指引以及对高估值的乐观前景而备受关注，被认为是最佳选择。百事可乐面临着消费者支出疲软和零食销量下降的挑战，但其估值仍具吸引力。宝洁表现出强大的韧性，保持着持续的有机销售增长，尽管未达到第四季度的营收预期。总体而言，KO 被推荐为这些股票中的首选</p>

<p>Consumer goods stocks like Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), and Procter &amp; Gamble (PG) tend to shine during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty due to their anti-cyclical and defensive nature. While I maintain a bullish stance on all these three industry giants, I will use TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool to explain why, based on a few key factors, I believe KO is currently the best pick among the trio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费品股票，如可口可乐（KO）、百事可乐（PEP）和宝洁（PG），在宏观经济不确定时期往往表现出色，因为它们具有反周期和防御性质。虽然我对这三家行业巨头保持看涨态度，但我将使用 TipRanks 的股票比较工具来解释为什么基于一些关键因素，我认为 KO 目前是这三者中最佳选择。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-17.55-1024x416.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-17.55-1024x416.jpeg"/></p>
<h2><strong>Coca-Cola (KO)</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>可口可乐（KO）</strong></h2>
</div><p>Starting with Coca-Cola, my bullish thesis for the company highlights its counter-cyclical resilience, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty and high interest rates, such as those we are currently experiencing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从可口可乐开始，我对该公司的看涨论点突出了其反周期韧性，特别是在经济不确定和高利率时期，例如我们目前正在经历的时期。</p>
</div><p>KO’s shares have performed exceptionally well throughout the year, rising more than 20%, particularly after the company reported its Q2 earnings in July. Coca-Cola surprised the market by reporting a 3% increase in Q2 revenue, contrary to expectations of a decline. The company also raised its annual guidance despite seemingly weak consumer spending trends and price hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>KO 的股价在整个年份表现出色，尤其是在公司于七月份报告第二季度收益后，上涨超过 20%。可口可乐意外地报告第二季度收入增长了 3%，与预期下降相反。尽管消费者支出趋势看似疲弱且价格上涨，但该公司还是提高了年度指引。</p>
</div><p>The iconic drink company reported a 9% growth in price/mix, indicating its success in either raising prices or selling a higher proportion of premium products. Coca-Cola now forecasts full-year organic sales growth of 9% to 10%, slightly above the previous forecast. Further, it expects adjusted profit growth of 5% to 6%, an increase from the earlier estimate of a 4% to 5% increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家标志性饮料公司报告价格/混合增长了 9%，表明其在提高价格或销售更高比例的高端产品方面取得成功。可口可乐现在预测全年有机销售增长率为 9% 到 10%，略高于先前的预测。此外，它预计调整后的利润增长为 5% 到 6%，高于先前的 4% 到 5% 的增长预期。</p>
</div><h2><strong>KO’s Valuation, Dividend, and Wall Street Consensus</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>KO 的估值、股息和华尔街共识</strong></h2>
</div><p>Even near its all-time high, Coca-Cola’s premium valuation appears justifiable for the bullish outlook. Despite its historically high price levels, Coca-Cola stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 25x, about 40% above the industry average but only 3% above its own five-year historical average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使接近历史高位，可口可乐的溢价估值看似合理，符合看涨前景。尽管其历史高价水平，可口可乐股票的前瞻市盈率为 25 倍，约高出行业平均水平 40%，但仅高出其自身五年历史平均水平 3%。</p>
</div><p>The company also remains a solid income play for long-term investors. Although the dividend yield is currently under 3% with a payout ratio of 67.7%, this isn’t necessarily a sign of weakness. In fact, KO stock has surged almost 40% since October 2023, which explains the inverse relationship between share price and dividend yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司对于长期投资者来说仍然是一个稳定的收入投资。尽管股息率目前不到 3%，支付比率为 67.7%，但这并不一定是弱点的表现。事实上，自 2023 年 10 月以来，KO 股价已上涨近 40%，这解释了股价与股息率之间的反向关系。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.03-1024x225.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.03-1024x225.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Moreover, KO stock holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 12 out of 19 Buy recommendations from Wall Street analysts, with an average price target of $70.56 for the beverage company. Despite the optimism, this price target suggests a downside of 0.82% based on the latest share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，根据华尔街分析师 19 个评级中的 12 个买入建议，KO 股票持有 “中等买入” 共识评级，为饮料公司设定了 70.56 美元的平均目标价。尽管存在乐观情绪，但这一目标价基于最新股价显示了 0.82% 的下行风险。</p>
</div><h2><strong>PepsiCo (PEP)</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>百事可乐（PEP）</strong></h2>
</div><p>Unlike its main rival Coca-Cola, PepsiCo has experienced more erratic performance this year. The snack food and beverage company is grappling with tough comparisons and the effects of weak consumer spending. A key point that has recently influenced PepsiCo’s defensive bullish thesis relates to its Q2 results, which fell short on the top line, particularly within the Frito-Lay segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与其主要竞争对手可口可乐不同，百事可乐今年的表现更加波动。这家零食食品和饮料公司正在应对艰难的比较和消费者支出疲软的影响。最近影响百事可乐防御性看涨论点的关键因素之一是其第二季度业绩，尤其是在 Frito-Lay 部门内的营收表现不佳。</p>
</div><p>The company reported a 4% volume drop in the North American snacking category, partly due to the emergence of GLP-1 drugs, which suppress appetite and may lead to reduced snack purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司报告北美零食类别销量下降了 4%，部分原因是 GLP-1 药物的出现，这些药物抑制食欲，可能导致零食购买减少。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, PepsiCo reported a 5% increase in effective net pricing across its product categories and geographies, which led to a 3% decrease in total organic volume. PepsiCo has been raising prices for over a year and a half now. With continuously increasing effective net pricing, consumers are now beginning to pull back. This shift represents a significant change this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，百事可乐报告其产品类别和地理区域的有效净定价增长了 5%，导致总有机销量下降了 3%。百事可乐已经连续一年半提高价格。随着持续增加的有效净定价，消费者现在开始收缩。这种转变代表了今年的一个重大变化。</p>
</div><h2><strong>PEP’s Valuation, Dividend, and Wall Street Consensus</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>PEP 的估值、股息和华尔街共识</strong></h2>
</div><p>The case for including PepsiCo in a portfolio becomes compelling when considering its current valuation. The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21.7x, which represents a 10.4% discount compared to its five-year historical average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑其当前估值时，将百事可乐纳入投资组合的理由变得更加强有力。该股票的前瞻市盈率为 21.7 倍，相比其五年历史平均水平，折让了 10.4%。</p>
</div><p>As an income investment, PepsiCo’s dividend yield is slightly under 3% but about 7.5% higher than its five-year average. The company raised its dividend by 7% in Q1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一项收入投资，百事可乐的股息率略低于 3%，但比其五年平均水平高约 7.5%。该公司在第一季度将股息提高了 7%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.01-1024x230.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.01-1024x230.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Lastly, Wall Street’s consensus on PepsiCo is a Moderate Buy. Analysts are somewhat divided, with nine Buys and eight Hold ratings. The average PEP stock price target of $186.35 implies a 4.50% upside potential from the current price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，华尔街对百事可乐的共识是 “中等买入”。分析师意见不一，有九个买入和八个持有评级。PEP 股票的平均目标价为 186.35 美元，暗示着相对于当前价格的 4.50% 的上涨潜力。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG)</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>宝洁（PG）</strong></h2>
</div><p>Last but not least, moving away from the beverage giants, Procter &amp; Gamble enters the comparison with Coca-Cola and PepsiCo as a leader in consumer goods, known for its similar resilient profile through various economic cycles – a key positive point in its investment thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，远离饮料巨头，宝洁作为消费品领域的领导者，以其在各种经济周期中的类似韧性而著称，这是其投资论点中的一个关键正面因素。</p>
</div><p>Procter &amp; Gamble’s latest figures show that Fiscal 2024 (ended June 30, 2024) marked its sixth consecutive year of at least a 4% organic sales growth. Results demonstrated significant strength despite headwinds from consumer spending and inflation, especially since the pandemic. PG stock is up nearly 20% year-to-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>宝洁最新数据显示，2024 财年（截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日）标志着其连续第六年至少实现 4% 的有机销售增长。尽管受到消费者支出和通货膨胀的阻力，尤其是自疫情爆发以来，PG 股价今年迄今上涨了近 20%。</p>
</div><p>P&amp;G saw a minimal revenue decline in Q4. The quarter’s top line dropped by 0.1% year-over-year to $20.5 billion, slightly missing expectations and triggering a knee-jerk reaction. In fact, slow growth has been a recurring theme, with Fiscal 2024’s organic growth of 4% being the lowest in the last five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>P&amp;G 在第四季度看到了微小的收入下降。该季度的营收同比下降了 0.1%，至 205 亿美元，略低于预期，引发了一波短期反应。事实上，缓慢增长一直是一个反复出现的主题，2024 财年的有机增长率为 4%，是过去五年中最低的。</p>
</div><h2><strong>PG’s Valuation, Dividend, and Wall Street Consensus</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>PG 的估值、股息和华尔街共识</strong></h2>
</div><p>A key point of concern in P&amp;G’s bullish thesis is its high valuation, though this doesn’t mean it’s unjustified as a low-risk profile. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 25.2x, about 40% higher than the consumer goods industry average. But even near its all-time highs, P&amp;G’s valuation is only 2.5% above its five-year average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>P&amp;G 投资论点中的一个关键问题是其高估值，尽管这并不意味着它作为低风险投资不合理。该股票的前瞻市盈率为 25.2 倍，约高出消费品行业平均水平 40%。但即使接近历史高位，P&amp;G 的估值仅高出其五年平均水平 2.5%。</p>
</div><p>In terms of dividends, P&amp;G offers a yield of 2.3%, which is lower than Coca-Cola and PepsiCo. Also, PG’s dividend yield is still almost 8% below the company’s five-year average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股息方面，P&amp;G 提供 2.3% 的股息率，低于可口可乐和百事可乐。此外，PG 的股息率仍然比公司五年平均水平低近 8%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.06-1024x200.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.06-1024x200.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Analysts also appear optimistic about P&amp;G. The stock has a Moderate Buy consensus based on 13 Buys and six Hold ratings. However, the average PG stock price target of $176.50 indicates only a 0.43% increase from the most recent price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师们对宝洁公司（P&amp;G）也持乐观态度。根据 13 个买入评级和 6 个持有评级，股票获得了 “中等买入” 共识。然而，平均股价目标为 176.50 美元，仅比最新价格上涨了 0.43%。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Conclusion – KO Emerges as the Best Pick</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>结论 – 可口可乐脱颖而出</strong></h2>
</div><p>Although I hold a bullish stance on KO, PEP, and PG for the long term and believe all three are worthwhile additions to a balanced portfolio, if I had to choose just one today, it would be KO.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管我对可口可乐（KO）、百事可乐（PEP）和宝洁公司（PG）的长期前景持看涨态度，并认为这三者都是平衡投资组合中值得添加的资产，但如果我今天必须选择一个，我会选择可口可乐。</p>
</div><p>Despite its premium valuation, I believe Coca-Cola’s stronger defensive appeal and product strategy justify a higher multiple, especially compared to PepsiCo. Recent results have shown that Coca-Cola has demonstrated greater resilience to weak consumer spending compared to PEP and PG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管可口可乐的估值较高，但我认为其更强的防御吸引力和产品战略证明了其应获得更高的估值倍数，特别是与百事可乐相比。最近的结果显示，与百事可乐和宝洁公司相比，可口可乐表现出更强的抵御消费者支出疲软的能力。</p>
</div><p>Disclosure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>披露</p>
</div>

KO, PEP, or PG: Which Consumer Goods Stock Is the Best Pick?

- 受宏观经济不确定性影响，可口可乐（KO）、百事可乐（PEP）和宝洁（PG）等消费品股票往往在此类时期表现出色，具有反周期和防御性质。
- 可口可乐（KO）展现出反周期韧性，股价在经济不确定性和高利率时期表现优异，特别是在报告 Q2 收益后，股价上涨超过 20%。
- 百事可乐（PEP）面临强烈竞争和消费者支出疲软影响，Q2 表现不佳，尤其在 Frito-Lay 部门。
- 宝洁（PG）连续六年实现至少 4% 的有机销售增长，尽管 Q4 收入略有下降，但仍表现强劲。PG 的股价今年迄今上涨近 20%。

可口可乐（KO）、百事公司（PEP）或宝洁公司（PG）：哪只消费品股票是最佳选择？