<ul>
<li>全球 M2 货币供应已经转为正面。</li>
<li>历史模式表明比特币可能即将在图表上大幅上涨</li>
</ul>
<p>比特币（BTC），全球领先的加密货币，继续在交易者、鲸鱼和机构之间闪烁不定。特别是在市场等待年底更好条件的情况下。</p>
<p>历史上，每当全球 M2 货币供应增加时，比特币就会大幅上涨。现在，随着全球 M2 转为正面，交易者们预期可能会出现一波牛市。类似于 2023 年 10 月底和 2024 年初所见的情况，随后比特币创下新的历史高点。</p>
<p>撰写本文时，BTC/USDT 似乎正在以一个看涨的旗形图案进行修正。另一波比特币上涨可能即将到来，预期的美联储降息将是关键因素。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSptVOXcAAUVLW.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSptVOXcAAUVLW.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Seth Fin/X</p>
<p>25 个基点的降息似乎是可能的。然而，在金融市场中，大幅度的变动需要时间来稳定才会显现出来。</p>
<h2>比特币交易回到中间区间</h2>
<p>截至目前，BTC 正在在一个下降趋势通道内的价格范围中间交易。</p>
<p>向上突破可能会导致向通道顶部推进并有可能突破。下限位于 51,000 美元，而上限阻力位于 66,000 美元。</p>
<p>尽管比特币似乎正在 consolide，但其强势仍然明显。特别是自从熊市无法突破下降趋势线以来。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXQnciWXcAAuY0B.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXQnciWXcAAuY0B.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>如果比特币突破上升趋势线并保持在上方，BTC 的价格可能会出现显著的涨势，有可能推动至新高。这可以通过全球 M2 对比特币价格图来支持。</p>
<h2>MVRV z 分数突显低未实现利润</h2>
<p>MVRV z 分数，市场情绪的关键指标，在截至目前的时间点约为 1.9。这表明比特币逐渐下降，而网络的平均链上成本基础已上升。</p>
<p>由此可见，市场中存在低未实现利润，为上行空间留下更多余地。</p>
<p>历史上，每当 MVRV z 分数达到这些水平时，比特币都会出现显著的上涨趋势。2012 年、2020 年和 2023 年的案例是很好的例子。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXUPXkrWkAA8Evb.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXUPXkrWkAA8Evb.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<h2>拥有超过 0.1 比特币的地址接近历史高位</h2>
<p>此外，持有至少 0.1 BTC 的比特币地址数量正接近历史新高。</p>
<p>这意味着长期持有者，通常被称为 “强势持有者”，正在积累比特币，支持比特币价格上涨的情况。</p>
<p>随着更多强势持有者购买比特币，市场变得更加强劲。这增加了图表上上涨趋势的可能性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXTt4CgWcAAczCq.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXTt4CgWcAAczCq.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Bitcoin Magazine PRO</p>
<h2>比特币短期持有者净头寸变化</h2>
<p>最后，比特币短期持有者净头寸变化显示，许多最近的买家，他们是在最后一次 “错失机会”（FOMO）激增期间进入市场的，现在正在离开。</p>
<p>这通常是市场抛售的迹象，预示着潜在的底部。当短期持有者抛售时，往往预示着比特币价格的激增。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSawPhWoAA3YgA.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSawPhWoAA3YgA.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>总之，比特币的价格有望实现增长。随着强劲的链上指标和历史趋势支持上涨趋势，如果全球市场条件改善并且美联储实施降息，BTC 可能会看到显著的涨势。</p>

MSTR

IBIT

GBTC

<p>比特币显示出潜在牛市迹象，全球 M2 货币供应呈现正增长，与比特币价格激增有着历史上的相关性。目前，比特币交易在一个下降趋势通道内，突破上轨可能导致价格大幅上涨。MVRV z 分数显示未实现利润较低，表明有上涨空间。此外，持有至少 0.1 比特币的地址数量接近历史高位，表明长期持有者正在大量累积。总体而言，有利的链上指标和历史趋势表明，如果市场条件改善且美联储降息，比特币价格可能会上涨</p>

<ul>
<li><em>Global m2 money supply has turned positive.</em></li>
<li><em>Historical patterns indicate BTC might be set to surge on the charts now</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>全球 M2 货币供应已经转为正面。</li>
<li>历史模式表明比特币可能即将在图表上大幅上涨</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Bitcoin [BTC], the world’s leading cryptocurrency, continues to flash uncertainty among traders, whales, and institutions. Especially as the market waits for better conditions in the final quarter of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币（BTC），全球领先的加密货币，继续在交易者、鲸鱼和机构之间闪烁不定。特别是在市场等待年底更好条件的情况下。</p>
</div><p>Historically, Bitcoin has surged whenever the global M2 money supply has increased. Now, with the global M2 turning positive, traders are anticipating a potential bull run. One similar to those seen in late October 2023 and early January 2024, following which BTC hit new all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，每当全球 M2 货币供应增加时，比特币就会大幅上涨。现在，随着全球 M2 转为正面，交易者们预期可能会出现一波牛市。类似于 2023 年 10 月底和 2024 年初所见的情况，随后比特币创下新的历史高点。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, BTC/USDT seemed to be correcting in a bullish flag pattern. Another BTC surge could be on the horizon, with the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut being key.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>撰写本文时，BTC/USDT 似乎正在以一个看涨的旗形图案进行修正。另一波比特币上涨可能即将到来，预期的美联储降息将是关键因素。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSptVOXcAAUVLW.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSptVOXcAAUVLW.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Seth Fin/X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Seth Fin/X</p>
</div><p>A 25 basis point cut seems likely. However, in financial markets, large moves need to settle before becoming apparent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>25 个基点的降息似乎是可能的。然而，在金融市场中，大幅度的变动需要时间来稳定才会显现出来。</p>
</div><h2>Bitcoin trading back at mid range</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币交易回到中间区间</h2>
</div><p>At press time, BTC was trading near the middle of its price range within a descending trend channel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，BTC 正在在一个下降趋势通道内的价格范围中间交易。</p>
</div><p>A breakout to the upside could lead to a push towards the top of the channel and a potential breakout. The lower boundary sat at $51k, while the upper resistance was at $66k.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>向上突破可能会导致向通道顶部推进并有可能突破。下限位于 51,000 美元，而上限阻力位于 66,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>Now, although BTC seemed to be consolidating, its strength remains evident. Especially since bears have been unable to break the lower trendline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管比特币似乎正在 consolide，但其强势仍然明显。特别是自从熊市无法突破下降趋势线以来。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXQnciWXcAAuY0B.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXQnciWXcAAuY0B.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>If Bitcoin breaks the upper trendline and stays above it, BTC’s price could see a significant rally, potentially pushing it new highs. This can be supported by the global M2 versus Bitcoin price chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果比特币突破上升趋势线并保持在上方，BTC 的价格可能会出现显著的涨势，有可能推动至新高。这可以通过全球 M2 对比特币价格图来支持。</p>
</div><h2>MVRV z-score highlights low unrealized profits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>MVRV z 分数突显低未实现利润</h2>
</div><p>The MVRV z-score, a key indicator of market sentiment, had a reading of around 1.9 at press time. This suggested that BTC has been gradually declining while the network’s average on-chain cost basis has risen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MVRV z 分数，市场情绪的关键指标，在截至目前的时间点约为 1.9。这表明比特币逐渐下降，而网络的平均链上成本基础已上升。</p>
</div><p>By extension, this means there are low unrealized profits in the market, leaving more room for upward movement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由此可见，市场中存在低未实现利润，为上行空间留下更多余地。</p>
</div><p>Historically, whenever the MVRV z-score has been at these levels, Bitcoin has noted significant uptrends. The case studies of 2012, 2020, and 2023 are good examples.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，每当 MVRV z 分数达到这些水平时，比特币都会出现显著的上涨趋势。2012 年、2020 年和 2023 年的案例是很好的例子。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXUPXkrWkAA8Evb.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXUPXkrWkAA8Evb.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><h2>Addresses with more than 0.1 Bitcoin near ATH</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>拥有超过 0.1 比特币的地址接近历史高位</h2>
</div><p>Additionally, the number of Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC is nearing a new all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，持有至少 0.1 BTC 的比特币地址数量正接近历史新高。</p>
</div><p>This means that long-term holders, often referred to as “strong hands,” are accumulating Bitcoin, supporting the case for higher BTC prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着长期持有者，通常被称为 “强势持有者”，正在积累比特币，支持比特币价格上涨的情况。</p>
</div><p>As more strong hands buy BTC, it strengthens the market. This increases the likelihood of an upward trend on the charts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着更多强势持有者购买比特币，市场变得更加强劲。这增加了图表上上涨趋势的可能性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXTt4CgWcAAczCq.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXTt4CgWcAAczCq.png"/></p>
<p>Source; Bitcoin Magazine PRO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Bitcoin Magazine PRO</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin’s short-term holder net position change</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币短期持有者净头寸变化</h2>
</div><p>Finally, Bitcoin’s short-term holder net position change revealed that many recent buyers, who entered during the last “fear of missing out” (FOMO) spike, are now leaving.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，比特币短期持有者净头寸变化显示，许多最近的买家，他们是在最后一次 “错失机会”（FOMO）激增期间进入市场的，现在正在离开。</p>
</div><p>This is often a sign of market capitulation, signaling a potential bottom. When short-term holders capitulate, it often precedes a BTC price surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这通常是市场抛售的迹象，预示着潜在的底部。当短期持有者抛售时，往往预示着比特币价格的激增。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSawPhWoAA3YgA.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSawPhWoAA3YgA.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price is poised for potential growth. With strong on-chain metrics and historical trends favoring an uptrend, BTC could see a significant rally if global market conditions improve and the Federal Reserve implements a rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，比特币的价格有望实现增长。随着强劲的链上指标和历史趋势支持上涨趋势，如果全球市场条件改善并且美联储实施降息，BTC 可能会看到显著的涨势。</p>
</div>

比特币——全球 M2 模式对 BTC 下一个牛市周期的启示是什么？