<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2021/12/where-to-trade-zillow-stock.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2021/12/where-to-trade-zillow-stock.jpg"/></p>
<p>自我在八月份写作以来，Redfin（RDFN）股价已经呈现抛物线上升的趋势。周五飙升至 14.5 美元，创下自 2023 年八月以来的最高水平，比今年最低水平高出 200%。这一飙升使其市值超过了 15 亿美元，而空头头寸也上升至 15% 以上。</p>
<p>房地产行业的其他公司也表现不俗。Zillow 集团的股价飙升至 60 美元，创下自二月以来的最高水平，而 Compass 的股价也飙升至 6.40 美元，比年初最低价 1.8 美元高出 250%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/COMP_2024-09-14_11-26-52-1024x568.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/COMP_2024-09-14_11-26-52-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p><em>Compass vs Redfin vs Zillow</em></p>
<h2>联邦储备利率</h2>
<p>Redfin、Compass 和 Zillow 持续上涨的主要推动因素是市场对联邦储备即将在即将召开的会议上开始降息的希望。</p>
<p>最近的经济数据显示了这一可能性。根据劳工统计局（BLS）的数据，劳动力市场仍然面临巨大压力，失业率今年仍然保持在 4% 以上。</p>
<p>经济在八月份增加了超过 11.2 万个工作岗位，根据最近的行动，有可能会对这些数字进行下调。最近，它对截至三月的 12 个月内创造的工作岗位数量进行了逾 80 万的修订。</p>
<p>与此同时，美国通胀在过去几个月有所下降。八月份，消费者价格指数（CPI）降至 2.5%，为两年多来的最低水平。</p>
<p>因此，市场预期联储将在周三进行 0.50% 的降息，并指出今年晚些时候将进一步降息。市场参与者预计联储今年晚些时候将降息 125 个基点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1016847534080155648/NGnyajkE_normal.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1016847534080155648/NGnyajkE_normal.jpg"/></p>
<p>根据彭博社的报道：“交易员在周五将大规模联邦储备利率降息的可能性提高到 40%，推动了美国政府债券的上涨。”#经济#联邦储备#市场</p>
<p>阅读 9 条回复</p>
<p>这些降息有可能通过降低抵押贷款利率来推动未来几年的房地产市场。最近的数据显示，利率一直呈下降趋势。对于信用评分在 700 至 719 之间的人士，30 年期抵押贷款利率已从年初的近 8% 下降至 6.99%。</p>
<p>当联邦储备加息时，这些股票表现不佳。Compass 股价从 22 美元跌至 1.86 美元，Redfin 从 98 美元跌至 3 美元，Zillow 从 207 美元跌至 26.78 美元。因此，人们普遍认为，由于这些股票在利率上升时暴跌，它们在利率开始下降时将会反弹。</p>
<h2>REA 集团对 Rightmove 的竞购</h2>
<p>股价反弹的另一个可能原因是 REA 集团宣布有意以超过 70 亿美元的价格收购英国的 Rightmove。</p>
<p>正如人们普遍预期的那样，Rightmove 拒绝了这一提议，称其严重低估了其业务，特别是因为交易的一部分将由 REA 的股票资助。REA 集团有直到本月底提出具有约束力的要约或退出的时间。</p>
<p>因此，一些分析师认为，REA 将把重点转向美国市场，这个市场通常比英国更活跃。REA 在 Move, Inc.（Realtor.com 背后的公司）拥有少数股权。</p>
<p>分析师认为，随着一项法院裁决改变了行业的运作方式，房地产科技行业可能会看到更多的整合。根据新规定，房地产经纪必须让买家在看房前签署一份表格，预计这将降低他们的佣金。</p>
<h2>分析师对 Redfin、Zillow 和 Compass 持乐观态度</h2>
<p>与此同时，分析师开始对 Zillow、Redfin 和 Compass 等房地产科技公司持乐观态度，认为低利率和基本面改善。B. Riley 的分析师在本周的一份报告中将 Redfin 的评级升级为买入，称：</p>
<p>“虽然买方经纪佣金可能会在整个行业受到压力，但我们认为 Redfin 在扩大交易量方面处于有利位置。我们相信 EBITDA 利润率有望在 2025 年转正，并在此后进一步扩大。以 2025 年 EV/营收 1.8 倍计算，我们认为风险/回报比具有吸引力。”</p>
<p>Needham、高盛、巴克莱和 Oppenheimer 的分析师对 Compass 也普遍持买入评级。</p>
<h2>Redfin、Zillow 和 Compass 面临风险</h2>
<p>这些股票之所以上涨，也是因为人们认为它们相对被低估，因为它们在过去几年中大幅下跌。</p>
<p>然而，这些公司面临着重大风险。首先，利率和抵押贷款利率预计将在较长时间内保持在较高水平。因此，房屋需求可能会在一段时间内保持疲弱。</p>
<p>其次，存在所谓的 “买传闻卖事实” 的概念。这是指投资者在重大事件发生前购买资产，然后在事件发生时出售。</p>
<p>第三，这些股票已经超买。Zillow 的相对强弱指数（RSI）已经飙升至 72，而 Redfin 的则飙升至 78。Compass 的 RSI 已经飙升至 75，这意味着可能会出现回调。</p>
<p>本文来源：Invezz，原文链接：https://www.invezz.com/news/2024/09/14/heres-why-the-redfin-compass-and-zillow-stocks-are-rising/</p>

COMP

Zillow集团-A

<p>Redfin、Compass 和 Zillow 的股票因市场对美联储降息预期而大幅上涨，其中 Redfin 的股价从今年最低点上涨了 200%。分析师对这些公司持乐观态度，认为基本面正在改善，利率也保持低位。然而，仍存在风险，包括持续高利率的可能性。受最近一项影响房地产经纪佣金的法院裁决影响，房地科技行业可能会出现整合。总体而言，分析师已将这些股票的评级上调，预计未来几年将实现正面增长</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2021/12/where-to-trade-zillow-stock.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2021/12/where-to-trade-zillow-stock.jpg"/></p>
<p>Redfin (RDFN) stock price has gone parabolic since I wrote about it in August. It soared to a high of $14.5 on Friday, its highest level since August 2023 and 200% above its lowest level this year. This surge has brought its market cap to over $1.5 billion while its short interest has risen to over 15%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自我在八月份写作以来，Redfin（RDFN）股价已经呈现抛物线上升的趋势。周五飙升至 14.5 美元，创下自 2023 年八月以来的最高水平，比今年最低水平高出 200%。这一飙升使其市值超过了 15 亿美元，而空头头寸也上升至 15% 以上。</p>
</div><p>Other companies in the real estate industry are doing well. Zillow Group’s stock jumped to $60, its highest level since February while Compass has surged to $6.40, 250% higher than the year-to-date low of $1.8.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地产行业的其他公司也表现不俗。Zillow 集团的股价飙升至 60 美元，创下自二月以来的最高水平，而 Compass 的股价也飙升至 6.40 美元，比年初最低价 1.8 美元高出 250%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/COMP_2024-09-14_11-26-52-1024x568.png" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/COMP_2024-09-14_11-26-52-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p><em>Compass vs Redfin vs Zillow</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Compass vs Redfin vs Zillow</em></p>
</div><h2>Federal Reserve interest rates</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>联邦储备利率</h2>
</div><p>The main catalyst for the ongoing Redfin, Compass, and Zillow is the ongoing hope that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in its upcoming meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Redfin、Compass 和 Zillow 持续上涨的主要推动因素是市场对联邦储备即将在即将召开的会议上开始降息的希望。</p>
</div><p>Recent economic numbers have shown why this is likely to happen. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the labor market has remained under intense pressure, with the unemployment rate remaining above 4% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的经济数据显示了这一可能性。根据劳工统计局（BLS）的数据，劳动力市场仍然面临巨大压力，失业率今年仍然保持在 4% 以上。</p>
</div><p>The economy added over 112k jobs in August, and based on recent actions, there is a likelihood that it will revise these numbers downward. It recently revised the number of jobs created in the 12 months to March by over 800k.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济在八月份增加了超过 11.2 万个工作岗位，根据最近的行动，有可能会对这些数字进行下调。最近，它对截至三月的 12 个月内创造的工作岗位数量进行了逾 80 万的修订。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the US inflation has moved downwards in the past few months. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 2.5% in August, the lowest level in over two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美国通胀在过去几个月有所下降。八月份，消费者价格指数（CPI）降至 2.5%，为两年多来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, there are odds that the Fed will deliver a 0.50% rate cut on Wednesday and point to more cuts later this year. Market participants expect the Fed to deliver 125 basis point cuts later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，市场预期联储将在周三进行 0.50% 的降息，并指出今年晚些时候将进一步降息。市场参与者预计联储今年晚些时候将降息 125 个基点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1016847534080155648/NGnyajkE_normal.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1016847534080155648/NGnyajkE_normal.jpg"/></p>
<p>From Bloomberg: “Traders boosted the likelihood of a large Federal Reserve interest-rate cut to 40% on Friday, adding to a rally in US government bonds.”#economy#FederalReserve#markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据彭博社的报道：“交易员在周五将大规模联邦储备利率降息的可能性提高到 40%，推动了美国政府债券的上涨。”#经济#联邦储备#市场</p>
</div><p>Read 9 replies</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读 9 条回复</p>
</div><p>These rate cuts have a chance of boosting the housing market in the coming years by lowering mortgage rates. Recent data shows that rates have been in a downward trend. For people with a credit score of between 700 and 719, the rate for a 30-year mortgage has dropped to 6.99% from the year-to-date high of almost 8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些降息有可能通过降低抵押贷款利率来推动未来几年的房地产市场。最近的数据显示，利率一直呈下降趋势。对于信用评分在 700 至 719 之间的人士，30 年期抵押贷款利率已从年初的近 8% 下降至 6.99%。</p>
</div><p>These stocks underperformed the market when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. Compass stock fell from a high of $22 to a low of $1.86 while Redfin fell from $98 to $3 and Zillow fell from $207 to $26.78. As such, the view is that since the stocks plunged when rates were rising, they will bounce back when they start falling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当联邦储备加息时，这些股票表现不佳。Compass 股价从 22 美元跌至 1.86 美元，Redfin 从 98 美元跌至 3 美元，Zillow 从 207 美元跌至 26.78 美元。因此，人们普遍认为，由于这些股票在利率上升时暴跌，它们在利率开始下降时将会反弹。</p>
</div><h2>Rightmove bid by REA Group</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>REA 集团对 Rightmove 的竞购</h2>
</div><p>The other likely reason for the rebound was the announcement by REA Group that it was interested in buying UK’s Rightmove in a deal valued at over $7 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价反弹的另一个可能原因是 REA 集团宣布有意以超过 70 亿美元的价格收购英国的 Rightmove。</p>
</div><p>Rightmove, as was widely expected, rejected the offer, saying that it grossly undervalued its business, especially because of part of the deal would be funded by REA’s stock. REA Group has until end of this month to make a binding offer or walk away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如人们普遍预期的那样，Rightmove 拒绝了这一提议，称其严重低估了其业务，特别是因为交易的一部分将由 REA 的股票资助。REA 集团有直到本月底提出具有约束力的要约或退出的时间。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, some analysts believe that REA, which is committed to making a big acquisition, could turn its focus to the United States market, which is often more vibrant than in the United Kingdom. REA owns a minority stake in Move, Inc, the company behind Realtor.com.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，一些分析师认为，REA 将把重点转向美国市场，这个市场通常比英国更活跃。REA 在 Move, Inc.（Realtor.com 背后的公司）拥有少数股权。</p>
</div><p>Analysts believe that the proptech industry could see more consolidation, especially after a court ruling changed how the industry works. As part of the new rules, realtors must let buyers sign a form before showing them the house, a move that is expected to lower their commissions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师认为，随着一项法院裁决改变了行业的运作方式，房地产科技行业可能会看到更多的整合。根据新规定，房地产经纪必须让买家在看房前签署一份表格，预计这将降低他们的佣金。</p>
</div><h2>Analysts are upbeat about Redfin, Zillow, and Compass</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>分析师对 Redfin、Zillow 和 Compass 持乐观态度</h2>
</div><p>Meanwhile, analysts have started being optimistic about these proptech companies like Zillow, Redfin, and Compass, citing low interest rates and improving fundamentals. In a note this week, analysts at B. Riley upgraded Redfin to a buy, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，分析师开始对 Zillow、Redfin 和 Compass 等房地产科技公司持乐观态度，认为低利率和基本面改善。B. Riley 的分析师在本周的一份报告中将 Redfin 的评级升级为买入，称：</p>
</div><p>“While buy-side agent commissions may get pressured industry-wide, we find Redfin well-positioned for volume gains. We believe EBITDA margin is on track to inflect to positive in 2025 and expand further from there. At 1.8x 2025 EV/revenue, we find the risk/reward attractive.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“虽然买方经纪佣金可能会在整个行业受到压力，但我们认为 Redfin 在扩大交易量方面处于有利位置。我们相信 EBITDA 利润率有望在 2025 年转正，并在此后进一步扩大。以 2025 年 EV/营收 1.8 倍计算，我们认为风险/回报比具有吸引力。”</p>
</div><p>Analysts are also generally bullish on Compass, with those at Needham, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Oppenheimer having a buy rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Needham、高盛、巴克莱和 Oppenheimer 的分析师对 Compass 也普遍持买入评级。</p>
</div><h2>Redfin, Zillow, and Compass face risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Redfin、Zillow 和 Compass 面临风险</h2>
</div><p>The stocks have also jumped because of the view that they are relatively undervalued since they crashed hard in the past few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些股票之所以上涨，也是因为人们认为它们相对被低估，因为它们在过去几年中大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Still, these companies face substantial risks ahead. For one, interest rates and mortgage rates are expected to remain at an elevated level for a long time. As such, housing demand may remain weak for a while.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这些公司面临着重大风险。首先，利率和抵押贷款利率预计将在较长时间内保持在较高水平。因此，房屋需求可能会在一段时间内保持疲弱。</p>
</div><p>Second, there is the concept known as buying the rumour and selling the news. This is a situation where investors buy an asset before a big event and then sell when the event happens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，存在所谓的 “买传闻卖事实” 的概念。这是指投资者在重大事件发生前购买资产，然后在事件发生时出售。</p>
</div><p>Third, the stocks have moved to an overbought level. Zillow’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has jumped to 72 while Redfin’s has soared to 78. Compass RSI has jumped to 75, meaning that a pullback is likely to happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，这些股票已经超买。Zillow 的相对强弱指数（RSI）已经飙升至 72，而 Redfin 的则飙升至 78。Compass 的 RSI 已经飙升至 75，这意味着可能会出现回调。</p>
</div><p>The post Here’s why the Redfin, Compass, and Zillow stocks are rising appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文来源：Invezz，原文链接：https://www.invezz.com/news/2024/09/14/heres-why-the-redfin-compass-and-zillow-stocks-are-rising/</p>
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以下是 Redfin、Compass 和 Zillow 股票上涨的原因