<p>对于股票投资，客观思考可能有些困难。毕竟，这涉及到您辛苦赚来的钱。</p>
<p>但投资者在考虑买入或卖出股票时，需要退一步，分析公司的基本前景。这种方法可以帮助您避免受到新闻报道或短期股价波动等因素的影响。</p>
<p>投资者可以通过这种方法从 <strong>Celsius Holdings</strong>(CELH 4.88%) 中受益。今年早些时候，该公司的股价曾接近历史最高水平，接近 100 美元。自那时起，股价已下跌约 64%。</p>
<p>这是否代表警示信号还是买入机会？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTA2NzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM5NDI4ODk2OC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTA2NzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM5NDI4ODk2OC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>快速但增长放缓的顶线增长</h2>
<p>成立于 2004 年的 Celsius 公司生产和销售能量饮料。该公司将其高咖啡因产品定位为健身饮料，主打绿茶和姜等成分，减少人工成分的使用。</p>
<p>顾客反应良好，销售额迅速增长。该公司于 2022 年与 <strong>百事公司</strong> 签订了国内分销协议，去年底将其扩展到加拿大。</p>
<p>2007 年，Celsius 的营收为 160 万美元；到去年，其营收已增长至 13 亿美元，每股稀释收益为 0.79 美元。在 2022 年至 2023 年期间，借助百事公司的协议，营收翻了一番。</p>
<h2>机遇与挑战</h2>
<p>尽管其增长在 2024 年有所放缓，但第二季度营收仍同比增长 23%，达到 4.02 亿美元，每股稀释收益增长 65%，达到 0.28 美元。截至 7 月中旬，Celsius 在能量饮料市场的份额扩大了 1.4 个百分点，达到 11%。</p>
<p>管理层还在努力扩大品牌在国际上的影响力，初步结果令人鼓舞。随着在加拿大、英国和爱尔兰的销售开始，最新季度国际销售增长了 30%。管理层预计今年将在澳大利亚、新西兰和法国推出该品牌。在第二季度，Celsius 在美国以外的销售额为 1960 万美元，仅占其总营收的 5%。</p>
<p>然而，前方的道路可能并不平坦。</p>
<p>饮料市场，特别是能量饮料市场，可能变幻莫测。目前，该领域表现不错，因为一些人从碳酸饮料转向提供某些认为有益健康的优势的能量饮料。但消费趋势可能迅速改变；某种能量饮料可能并非顾客所期望的灵丹妙药，或者其他产品可能更受欢迎。例如，竞争对手 <strong>Monster Beverage</strong> 曾经是一家高飞的公司。其第二季度的营收增长仅为 2.5%。</p>
<p>百事公司的协议为 Celsius 带来了财务收益。然而，百事公司的批发采购占了 Celsius 2023 年营收的 59% 以上。这使 Celsius 对该渠道的任何变化都极为敏感。第二季度结束后，管理层表示，由于百事公司库存了过多的 Celsius 产品，百事公司正在减少订单。</p>
<p>其他主要客户包括 <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(NASDAQ: COST) 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(NASDAQ: AMZN)，分别占其营收的 12% 和 7.6%。</p>
<h2>决策</h2>
<p>尽管自年初以来股价下跌了 38%，但 Celsius 的股价仍然以 33 倍的高市盈率交易。这虽然低于年初超过 100 倍的比率，但仍高于 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 的 29 倍比率。</p>
<p>因此，股价仍然被定价为持续快速增长。但随着百事公司减少订单，销售增长可能从之前的快速步伐放缓，进一步对股价产生负面影响。</p>
<p>我建议目前避免购买这些股票。长期股东可能希望继续持有股票，因为 Celsius 在国际上的增长机会仍然存在。但我建议密切关注市场趋势的变化。</p>

Celsius控股

<p>Celsius 控股的股价已从早期高点下跌了 64%，引发了关于这是否是一个警示信号还是一个买入机会的疑问。这家以能量饮料闻名的公司在与百事公司达成的分销协议的支持下经历了快速增长。然而，2024 年增长放缓，第二季度营收增长了 23%。尽管进行了国际扩张，但 Celsius 仍然容易受市场波动影响，并且依赖于百事公司，后者占其营收的 59% 以上。分析师建议暂时避免购买股票，而长期投资者可能会考虑持有，因为存在潜在的增长机会</p>

<p>It can be difficult to think dispassionately about your stock investments. After all, it's your hard-earned money at stake.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于股票投资，客观思考可能有些困难。毕竟，这涉及到您辛苦赚来的钱。</p>
</div><p>But investors need to take a step back and analyze a company's fundamental prospects when they are considering buying or selling its shares. This approach can help you avoid getting swayed by considerations such as the news reports or short-term stock price swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投资者在考虑买入或卖出股票时，需要退一步，分析公司的基本前景。这种方法可以帮助您避免受到新闻报道或短期股价波动等因素的影响。</p>
</div><p>Investors could certainly benefit by taking that approach with <strong>Celsius Holdings</strong>(CELH 4.88%). Earlier this year, its stock price approached an all-time high of nearly $100. Since then, the shares have fallen by about 64%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可以通过这种方法从 <strong>Celsius Holdings</strong>(CELH 4.88%) 中受益。今年早些时候，该公司的股价曾接近历史最高水平，接近 100 美元。自那时起，股价已下跌约 64%。</p>
</div><p>Does this represent a warning signal or a buying opportunity?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是否代表警示信号还是买入机会？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTA2NzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM5NDI4ODk2OC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F790678%2Fgettyimages-1394288968-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Fast but slowing top-line growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>快速但增长放缓的顶线增长</h2>
</div><p>Celsius, founded in 2004, makes and sells energy drinks. The company markets its highly caffeinated products as fitness drinks, featuring ingredients such as green tea and ginger, and minimizing artificial ingredients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成立于 2004 年的 Celsius 公司生产和销售能量饮料。该公司将其高咖啡因产品定位为健身饮料，主打绿茶和姜等成分，减少人工成分的使用。</p>
</div><p>Customers have been receptive, and sales have grown quickly. The company inked a domestic distribution agreement with <strong>PepsiCo</strong> in 2022 that they expanded to Canada late last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顾客反应良好，销售额迅速增长。该公司于 2022 年与 <strong>百事公司</strong> 签订了国内分销协议，去年底将其扩展到加拿大。</p>
</div><p>Celsius brought in $1.6 million in revenue in 2007; by last year, its top line had grown to $1.3 billion with earnings of $0.79 per diluted share. And from 2022 to 2023, with the help of the PepsiCo deal, the top line doubled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2007 年，Celsius 的营收为 160 万美元；到去年，其营收已增长至 13 亿美元，每股稀释收益为 0.79 美元。在 2022 年至 2023 年期间，借助百事公司的协议，营收翻了一番。</p>
</div><h2>Opportunities and challenges</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>机遇与挑战</h2>
</div><p>While its growth has slowed in 2024, second-quarter revenue still increased a healthy 23% year over year to $402 million, and earnings increased 65% to $0.28 per diluted share. Celsius' share of the energy drink market had expanded by 1.4 percentage points to 11% as of mid-July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管其增长在 2024 年有所放缓，但第二季度营收仍同比增长 23%，达到 4.02 亿美元，每股稀释收益增长 65%，达到 0.28 美元。截至 7 月中旬，Celsius 在能量饮料市场的份额扩大了 1.4 个百分点，达到 11%。</p>
</div><p>Management has also been working on expanding the brand's footprint internationally, and early results have been promising. International sales grew 30% in the latest quarter as it began sales in Canada, the United Kingdom, and Ireland. Management expects to launch the brand in Australia, New Zealand, and France this year. In Q2, Celsius' $19.6 million in sales outside the U.S. accounted for just 5% of its top line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层还在努力扩大品牌在国际上的影响力，初步结果令人鼓舞。随着在加拿大、英国和爱尔兰的销售开始，最新季度国际销售增长了 30%。管理层预计今年将在澳大利亚、新西兰和法国推出该品牌。在第二季度，Celsius 在美国以外的销售额为 1960 万美元，仅占其总营收的 5%。</p>
</div><p>However, the road ahead may not prove smooth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，前方的道路可能并不平坦。</p>
</div><p>The beverage market, particularly for energy drinks, can be fickle. Right now, that segment is doing well as some people turn away from carbonated beverages toward energy drinks that offer certain perceived advantages, such as health benefits. But consumer trends can change quickly; a given energy drink may not prove the panacea that customers hoped it they would, or another product may catch on. For instance, rival <strong>Monster Beverage</strong> was once a high-flying company. It had revenue growth of just 2.5% in the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>饮料市场，特别是能量饮料市场，可能变幻莫测。目前，该领域表现不错，因为一些人从碳酸饮料转向提供某些认为有益健康的优势的能量饮料。但消费趋势可能迅速改变；某种能量饮料可能并非顾客所期望的灵丹妙药，或者其他产品可能更受欢迎。例如，竞争对手 <strong>Monster Beverage</strong> 曾经是一家高飞的公司。其第二季度的营收增长仅为 2.5%。</p>
</div><p>The PepsiCo agreement has provided financial benefits to Celsius. However, Pepsi's wholesale purchases accounted for over 59% of Celsius' 2023 revenue. That leaves Celsius highly susceptible to any changes in that channel. And management indicated after the second quarter that Pepsi was reducing orders since it had built up too much inventory of Celsius products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>百事公司的协议为 Celsius 带来了财务收益。然而，百事公司的批发采购占了 Celsius 2023 年营收的 59% 以上。这使 Celsius 对该渠道的任何变化都极为敏感。第二季度结束后，管理层表示，由于百事公司库存了过多的 Celsius 产品，百事公司正在减少订单。</p>
</div><p>Other major customers include <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(NASDAQ: COST) and <strong>Amazon</strong>(NASDAQ: AMZN), which account for 12% and 7.6% of its revenue, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他主要客户包括 <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(NASDAQ: COST) 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(NASDAQ: AMZN)，分别占其营收的 12% 和 7.6%。</p>
</div><h2>The decision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>决策</h2>
</div><p>Celsius' stock still trades at a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33 even after its 38% share price drop since the start of the year. That is down from a ratio of more than 100 at the start of the year, but still higher than the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s ratio of 29.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管自年初以来股价下跌了 38%，但 Celsius 的股价仍然以 33 倍的高市盈率交易。这虽然低于年初超过 100 倍的比率，但仍高于 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 的 29 倍比率。</p>
</div><p>As such, the shares remained priced for continued fast growth. But with Pepsi cutting orders, sales growth could slow from its previous breakneck pace, further negatively impacting the share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，股价仍然被定价为持续快速增长。但随着百事公司减少订单，销售增长可能从之前的快速步伐放缓，进一步对股价产生负面影响。</p>
</div><p>I'd avoid the shares at this point. Long-term shareholders may want to continue holding the shares given that growth opportunities for Celsius remain, particularly internationally. But I'd keep a close eye on shifting trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我建议目前避免购买这些股票。长期股东可能希望继续持有股票，因为 Celsius 在国际上的增长机会仍然存在。但我建议密切关注市场趋势的变化。</p>
</div>

Celsius 控股：是买入、卖出还是持有？