<p>在美联储前一天降息 50 个基点后，股市周四大幅上涨。其中最大的赢家之一是特斯拉（TSLA -2.20%）。</p>
<p>股价上涨了 7.4%，投资者认为降息对美国最大的电动汽车（EV）制造商是明显的助力。这一涨幅足以使其市值增加 500 亿美元。</p>
<p>尽管特斯拉仍然是电动汽车领域的领导者，但该公司经历了艰难的一年。股价今年以来仍然下跌，明显表现不佳，远远落后于标普 500 指数和其 “七巨头” 同行。</p>
<p>特斯拉的问题出现在销售增长停滞不前，利润率受到压力。随着对无油汽车的需求一度飙升后现在趋于平稳，电动汽车行业似乎正在经历一场调整。</p>
<p>然而，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克更倾向于归咎于另一个罪魁祸首：利率。特斯拉首席一再详细阐述了利率对潜在特斯拉购买者带来的挑战。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTEyOTkvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTEyOTkvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>马斯克最喜欢的替罪羊</h2>
<p>在财报电话会议、媒体采访以及他的社交媒体平台 X 上，马斯克一再抱怨高利率的影响。在八月初，他批评美联储未在七月会议上降息，在 X 上发文称：“美联储需要降息。他们不降息已经愚蠢至极。”</p>
<p>将近一年前，马斯克在特斯拉 2023 年第三季度财报电话会议上表达了对利率的担忧，他说：</p>
<p>我担心我们所处的高利率环境。我再次强调，绝大多数购车者关注的是月供... 如果利率保持高位，甚至进一步上升，人们购车就会更加困难。</p>
<p>随着美联储 50 个基点的降息以及预计今年晚些时候和明年将进一步降息，马斯克似乎终于得到了他想要的。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，特斯拉股价周四表现优异，包括那些陷入困境的电动汽车初创公司，由于更需要帮助，它们更有可能受益于较低的利率。例如，Rivian 周四仅上涨了 1.9%，而 Lucid 实际下跌了 0.8%。</p>
<p>传统汽车制造商也没有获得特斯拉的提振。福特下跌了 0.6%，通用汽车收盘下跌了 0.1%。</p>
<h2>降息能帮助特斯拉扭转局面吗？</h2>
<p>仔细观察后，马斯克对利率的抱怨似乎站不住脚。它们似乎更像是一个方便的借口，而不是对业务的实质性拖累。</p>
<p>首先，特斯拉对利率的敏感并不是汽车行业独有的。所有汽车制造商都面临这一现实，较高的借贷成本确实会提高使用融资的购车者的月供。特斯拉的车辆价格也高于许多竞争对手，这意味着其客户不太可能对利率敏感，因为他们可以负担得起更昂贵的车辆。</p>
<p>特斯拉还是一家全球公司，不到一半的收入来自美国，尽管美国是其最大的市场。虽然欧洲的利率也上升，但这些市场不应受美联储决定的影响。</p>
<p>正如下图所示，没有太多证据表明利率上升对汽车销售产生影响。虽然销量仍低于疫情前水平，但在美联储加息时实际上有所上升，并且自那时以来一直保持稳定。较高的利率并没有抑制汽车市场，尽管它可能阻止了其增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/af7b8a92d84794908eceb2e5fd5aa59a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/af7b8a92d84794908eceb2e5fd5aa59a.png"/></p>
<p>由 YCharts 提供的美国总车辆销售数据。</p>
<p>最后，马斯克的同行们没有像他那样高度关注利率，这使得借贷成本更像是特斯拉业绩不佳的替罪羊，而不是一个重大阻力。</p>
<h2>对特斯拉意味着什么</h2>
<p>最终，尽管股价周四大涨，降息对特斯拉的长期表现不太可能产生实质影响。</p>
<p>更重要的是公司能否成功部署全自动驾驶（FSD）技术，以及是否能够继续推出新产品，如备受期待的价格亲民的 Model 2、机器人出租车和 Optimus 自主机器人。</p>
<p>我们将在公司 10 月 10 日的机器人出租车活动以及一个月后发布的第三季度财报中了解更多信息。</p>
<p>目前，投资者最好关注这些事件，而不是特斯拉在降息上的涨幅。降息并不一定是马斯克认为的能够带来成功的催化剂。</p>

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉股价在美联储降息 50 个基点后上涨了 7.4%，为其市值增加了数十亿美元。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克经常将高利率归咎于特斯拉的销售困境，但分析师们认为这更多是一种借口而非真正问题。尽管股价上涨，但利率降低对特斯拉业绩的长期影响仍不确定。投资者应关注即将到来的事件，如自动出租车推出和第三季度财报，而不是依赖利率变化作为增长的催化剂</p>

<p>Stocks soared Thursday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points the day before. One of the biggest winners was <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -2.20%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美联储前一天降息 50 个基点后，股市周四大幅上涨。其中最大的赢家之一是特斯拉（TSLA -2.20%）。</p>
</div><p>Shares jumped 7.4% as investors saw the rate cuts as a clear tailwind for the U.S.'s largest electric vehicle (EV) maker. That gain was enough to add $50 billion to its market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价上涨了 7.4%，投资者认为降息对美国最大的电动汽车（EV）制造商是明显的助力。这一涨幅足以使其市值增加 500 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>While Tesla is still the leader in electric vehicles, the company has had a challenging year. The stock is still down year to date, significantly underperforming both the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and its &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特斯拉仍然是电动汽车领域的领导者，但该公司经历了艰难的一年。股价今年以来仍然下跌，明显表现不佳，远远落后于标普 500 指数和其 “七巨头” 同行。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's problems come as sales growth has flatlined and margins are under pressure. The EV industry seems to be going through something of a correction as once-soaring demand for the gas-free cars has plateaued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的问题出现在销售增长停滞不前，利润率受到压力。随着对无油汽车的需求一度飙升后现在趋于平稳，电动汽车行业似乎正在经历一场调整。</p>
</div><p>However, CEO Elon Musk prefers to blame a different culprit: Interest rates. Time and again, the Tesla chief has gone to great lengths to spell out the challenges that interest rates have presented for potential Tesla buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克更倾向于归咎于另一个罪魁祸首：利率。特斯拉首席一再详细阐述了利率对潜在特斯拉购买者带来的挑战。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTEyOTkvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F791299%2Ftesla-model-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Musk's favorite bogeyman</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>马斯克最喜欢的替罪羊</h2>
</div><p>On earnings calls, in media interviews, and in posts on his social media platform, X, Musk has repeatedly complained about the effect of higher interest rates. In early August, he criticized the Fed for not lowering rates at its July meeting, writing in a post on X: &#34;The Fed needs to drop rates. They have been foolish not to have done so already.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在财报电话会议、媒体采访以及他的社交媒体平台 X 上，马斯克一再抱怨高利率的影响。在八月初，他批评美联储未在七月会议上降息，在 X 上发文称：“美联储需要降息。他们不降息已经愚蠢至极。”</p>
</div><p>Nearly a year ago, Musk spelled out his concerns about rates on Tesla's third-quarter 2023 earnings call, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将近一年前，马斯克在特斯拉 2023 年第三季度财报电话会议上表达了对利率的担忧，他说：</p>
</div><p>I am worried about the high-interest rate environment that we're in. I just can't emphasize this enough that the vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment... If interest rates remain high or if they go even higher, it's that much harder for people to buy the car.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我担心我们所处的高利率环境。我再次强调，绝大多数购车者关注的是月供... 如果利率保持高位，甚至进一步上升，人们购车就会更加困难。</p>
</div><p>With the Fed's 50-basis-point cut and more cuts expected later this year and into next year, Musk seems to be finally getting what he's wanted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着美联储 50 个基点的降息以及预计今年晚些时候和明年将进一步降息，马斯克似乎终于得到了他想要的。</p>
</div><p>Notably, Tesla stock outperformed essentially all of its peers on Thursday, including struggling EV start-ups that figure to benefit more from lower interest rates since they're more in need of help. <strong>Rivian</strong>, for example, gained just 1.9% on Thursday, while <strong>Lucid</strong> actually fell 0.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，特斯拉股价周四表现优异，包括那些陷入困境的电动汽车初创公司，由于更需要帮助，它们更有可能受益于较低的利率。例如，Rivian 周四仅上涨了 1.9%，而 Lucid 实际下跌了 0.8%。</p>
</div><p>Traditional automakers also didn't get the Tesla bump. <strong>Ford</strong> fell 0.6%, and <strong>GM</strong> closed down 0.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>传统汽车制造商也没有获得特斯拉的提振。福特下跌了 0.6%，通用汽车收盘下跌了 0.1%。</p>
</div><h2>Will rate cuts help Tesla turn around?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>降息能帮助特斯拉扭转局面吗？</h2>
</div><p>Upon closer examination, Musk's complaints about interest rates ring hollow. They seem to be more of a convenient excuse, rather than a meaningful drag on the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仔细观察后，马斯克对利率的抱怨似乎站不住脚。它们似乎更像是一个方便的借口，而不是对业务的实质性拖累。</p>
</div><p>First, Tesla's exposure to interest rates isn't unique in the auto industry. All automakers face that reality, and higher borrowing costs do raise monthly payments for buyers who use financing. Tesla's vehicles also carry a higher price tag than many of its competitors', meaning its customers are less likely to be sensitive to interest rates since they can afford a more expensive vehicle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，特斯拉对利率的敏感并不是汽车行业独有的。所有汽车制造商都面临这一现实，较高的借贷成本确实会提高使用融资的购车者的月供。特斯拉的车辆价格也高于许多竞争对手，这意味着其客户不太可能对利率敏感，因为他们可以负担得起更昂贵的车辆。</p>
</div><p>Tesla is also a global company, and less than half of its revenue comes from the U.S., though the U.S. is its biggest market. While rates also rose in places in Europe, those markets shouldn't be affected by the Fed's decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉还是一家全球公司，不到一半的收入来自美国，尽管美国是其最大的市场。虽然欧洲的利率也上升，但这些市场不应受美联储决定的影响。</p>
</div><p>As the chart below shows, there's not much evidence that rising rates had an effect on auto sales. While they're still down from pre-pandemic levels, they actually rose when the Fed was hiking rates and have been steady since. Higher rates didn't dampen the auto market, though they could have prevented it from growing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如下图所示，没有太多证据表明利率上升对汽车销售产生影响。虽然销量仍低于疫情前水平，但在美联储加息时实际上有所上升，并且自那时以来一直保持稳定。较高的利率并没有抑制汽车市场，尽管它可能阻止了其增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/af7b8a92d84794908eceb2e5fd5aa59a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/af7b8a92d84794908eceb2e5fd5aa59a.png"/></p>
<p>US Total Vehicle Sales data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 YCharts 提供的美国总车辆销售数据。</p>
</div><p>Finally, none of Musk's peers have given the same level of attention to interest rates that he has, making it seem like borrowing costs are more of a scapegoat for Tesla's poor performance, rather than a significant headwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，马斯克的同行们没有像他那样高度关注利率，这使得借贷成本更像是特斯拉业绩不佳的替罪羊，而不是一个重大阻力。</p>
</div><h2>What it means for Tesla</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对特斯拉意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>Ultimately, interest rate cuts are unlikely to be material to Tesla's long-term performance, despite the stock's surge on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，尽管股价周四大涨，降息对特斯拉的长期表现不太可能产生实质影响。</p>
</div><p>What's more important is whether the company can successfully deploy full-self-driving (FSD) technology, and if it can continue to innovate with new products like the anticipated affordably priced Model 2, the robotaxi, and the Optimus autonomous robot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是公司能否成功部署全自动驾驶（FSD）技术，以及是否能够继续推出新产品，如备受期待的价格亲民的 Model 2、机器人出租车和 Optimus 自主机器人。</p>
</div><p>We'll learn more shortly at the company's Oct. 10 robotaxi event, and when it reports Q3 earnings, due out in a month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们将在公司 10 月 10 日的机器人出租车活动以及一个月后发布的第三季度财报中了解更多信息。</p>
</div><p>For now, investors are better off focusing on those events, rather than on Tesla's jump on interest rate cuts. Rate cuts aren't necessarily the winning catalyst that Musk seems to think they are.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，投资者最好关注这些事件，而不是特斯拉在降息上的涨幅。降息并不一定是马斯克认为的能够带来成功的催化剂。</p>
</div>

Will Interest Rate Cuts Save Tesla? Elon Musk Is Counting On It

- 特斯拉股价因美联储降息 50 个基点上涨 7.4%，市值增加 500 亿美元。  
- 然而，特斯拉面临销售增长停滞和利润压力，CEO 马斯克将问题归咎于高利率。  
- 降息对特斯拉长期表现影响有限，关键在于新技术和产品的成功推出。  

降息能拯救特斯拉吗？埃隆·马斯克对此寄予厚望