<p>在这篇文章中，我正在评估两家电力公用事业股票：Constellation Energy（CEG）和 Vistra Energy（VST）。仔细观察支持对 Constellation Energy 持中立观点，对 Vistra Energy 持悲观观点。</p>
<p>Constellation Energy 是美国最大的无碳能源生产商，为美国本土的家庭、企业和公共部门客户提供可持续解决方案。另一方面，Vistra Energy 通过天然气和煤炭发电，除了核能和太阳能设施外。Vistra 为美国的商业、住宅、市政和工业客户提供服务。</p>
<p>Constellation Energy 的股价今年迄今已飙升了 119%，其中包括过去三个月的 18% 涨幅。与此同时，Vistra Energy 的股价今年迄今已飙升了 182%。这两只股票最近为股东带来了出色的表现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1-6-1024x210.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1-6-1024x210.jpg"/></p>
<p>在 Vistra 远远超过一年的涨势之后，它与 Constellation Energy 之间出现了相当大的估值差距。我将比较它们的市盈率（P/E）来对比它们的估值。</p>
<p>整个能源行业的估值远低于 CEG 和 VST 的市盈率。由于这两家公司都存在于能源复杂领域的可持续一侧，行业比较在这种情况下不太有帮助。</p>
<h2><strong>对 Constellation Energy（CEG）的进一步观察</strong></h2>
<p>Constellation Energy 股价在 9 月 20 日宣布计划重新开放三英里岛 1 号核电站后飙升了 25% 至创纪录高位。这座核电站将为微软的数据中心提供电力，这将为 Constellation 带来巨额收入。这次重新开放是一项为期 20 年的协议的一部分，这应该有助于这家软件巨头削减其碳足迹。Constellation 在一次演示中告诉投资者，它预计微软的合同将从 2024 年至 2030 年将其年基本每股收益增长率从 10% 提高到 13%。对我来说，这似乎是对 25% 更高股价的微薄补偿，至少目前看来 CEG 股票被高估了。</p>
<p>一个潜在的风险是 Constellation 尚未申请重新开放该设施所需的任何许可证，该设施由于 “经济原因” 于 2019 年关闭。此外，Constellation 甚至不指望许可流程能在 2027 年之前完成——如果它收到重新开放所需的许可证的话。据路透社报道，美国没有任何核电站在关闭后重新开放过，因此整个项目似乎是前所未有的。</p>
<p>尽管微软的交易是一剂强心针，但 Constellation Energy 股票现在处于超买区，相对强弱指标约为 80。因此，下行修正可能即将到来，这可能为机会主义投资者提供买入机会，并减轻项目的一些风险。</p>
<p>以 34 倍市盈率，Constellation Energy 的股价比 Vistra Energy 交易价格低得多。然而，考虑到股价上涨以及重新启动旧核电站的实施风险，我仍然认为目前持中立观点是合适的。Constellation Energy 已经在美国拥有最大规模的核电站群。</p>
<h2><strong>CEG 股票的目标价是多少？</strong></h2>
<p>根据过去三个月的 10 个买入、两个持有和零卖出评级，Constellation Energy 拥有强烈买入的共识评级。在 261.75 美元的价格上，Constellation Energy 的平均股价目标接近 CEG 股票的最新交易价值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CEG-analysts.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CEG-analysts.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>对 Vistra Energy（VST）的进一步观察</strong></h2>
<p>以 87 倍市盈率，尽管参与天然气和煤炭，Vistra Energy 的股价比 Constellation Energy 高得多。该公司从煤炭向更清洁能源的转变是一个巨大的积极因素，股价迄今已经飙升。然而，在我看来，它目前的估值过高，开启了对悲观观点的可能性。</p>
<p>就像 Constellation 一样，Vistra 股价在上周飙升至新的历史高位，现在处于超买区，相对强弱指数为 81。这里也可能会出现一次修正，特别是考虑到股价的昂贵程度。在过去五年中，Vistra Energy 的估值一直相当波动。该公司在 2022 年和 2021 年甚至没有盈利，而在过去 12 个月中实现了 6.48 亿美元的净收入，营收超过 140 亿美元。这是一个相当薄弱的净收入利润率为 4.6%。</p>
<p>由于公司正在从煤炭向清洁能源转变，Vista 的季度业绩不稳定可能是可以原谅的。根据其 2023 年可持续性报告，Vistra 正在取得这一转变的进展，年度 1 排放量减少了 9%。该公司还表示已经明确了实现 2030 年减排目标的途径。然而，这一转变也意味着 Vistra Energy 面临比 Constellation Energy 更广泛的风险，后者不燃烧任何煤炭，尽管根据其 2024 年 ESG 资料表，它确实燃烧石油。</p>
<p>核能比太阳能更可靠，Vistra 似乎更专注于通过收购核电站来增加核能容量。2023 年，Vistra 收购了三个核设施。当然，这种收购需要大量资本投入。</p>
<h2><strong>VST 股票的目标价是多少？</strong></h2>
<p>根据过去三个月的六个买入、零持有和零卖出评级，Vistra Energy 拥有强烈买入的共识评级。然而，股价最近的飙升使该股超过了 108.17 美元的平均 VST 股价目标。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/VST-analysts-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/VST-analysts-1.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>结论：对 CEG 持中立观点，对 VST 持悲观观点</strong></h2>
<p>在 TipRanks 的新闻页面上快速浏览 Constellation Energy，可以看到多个价格目标上调，而 Vistra 的则较少。</p>
<p>尽管两家公司都面临一定风险，但由于 Vistra 正在转型远离煤炭并扩大太阳能业务，其风险可能更加广泛。另一方面，Constellation 面临独特风险，即尝试重新启用 Three Mile Island 核电站。</p>
<p>在当前阶段，Constellation 看起来是更好的股票持有选择，尽管我持中立评级。CEG 股票在买入机会中看起来更具吸引力。</p>
<p>披露</p>

<p>这份分析比较了两家电力公用事业股票：康斯泰能源（CEG）和维斯特拉能源（VST）。由于宣布重新开放核电厂后最近上涨了 25%，CEG 的前景中性；而尽管今年迄今上涨了 182%，VST 被看作是熊市。CEG 的市盈率为 34 倍，表明可能被高估，而 VST 的市盈率为 87 倍，暗示溢价。两只股票都处于超买区，表明可能会有调整。CEG 有强烈的买入共识，而 VST 转向清洁能源的举措受到关注，但也引发了对其估值的担忧</p>

<p>In this piece, I’m evaluating two electric utility stocks: Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra Energy (VST). A closer look supports a neutral view for Constellation Energy and a bearish view for Vistra Energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这篇文章中，我正在评估两家电力公用事业股票：Constellation Energy（CEG）和 Vistra Energy（VST）。仔细观察支持对 Constellation Energy 持中立观点，对 Vistra Energy 持悲观观点。</p>
</div><p>Constellation Energy is the largest U.S. producer of carbon-free energy and provides sustainable solutions to homes, businesses, and public-sector customers in the continental U.S. On the other hand, Vistra Energy produces electricity via natural gas and coal in addition to its nuclear and solar facilities. Vistra serves commercial, residential, municipal, and industrial customers in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Constellation Energy 是美国最大的无碳能源生产商，为美国本土的家庭、企业和公共部门客户提供可持续解决方案。另一方面，Vistra Energy 通过天然气和煤炭发电，除了核能和太阳能设施外。Vistra 为美国的商业、住宅、市政和工业客户提供服务。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Constellation Energy have skyrocketed 119% year to date, including an 18% gain over the last three months. Meanwhile, Vistra Energy stock has soared 182% year to date. Both these stocks have delivered excellent performance for shareholders lately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Constellation Energy 的股价今年迄今已飙升了 119%，其中包括过去三个月的 18% 涨幅。与此同时，Vistra Energy 的股价今年迄今已飙升了 182%。这两只股票最近为股东带来了出色的表现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1-6-1024x210.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1-6-1024x210.jpg"/></p>
<p>After Vistra’s much-larger one-year rally, it has opened up a sizable valuation gap with Constellation Energy. I’ll compare their price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios to pit their valuations against each other.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Vistra 远远超过一年的涨势之后，它与 Constellation Energy 之间出现了相当大的估值差距。我将比较它们的市盈率（P/E）来对比它们的估值。</p>
</div><p>The valuation of the energy industry as a whole is much lower than the P/Es we’re seeing for CEG and VST. An industry comparison is less helpful in this case due to the existence of both companies on the sustainable side of the energy complex.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整个能源行业的估值远低于 CEG 和 VST 的市盈率。由于这两家公司都存在于能源复杂领域的可持续一侧，行业比较在这种情况下不太有帮助。</p>
</div><h2><strong>A Closer Look At Constellation Energy (CEG)</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>对 Constellation Energy（CEG）的进一步观察</strong></h2>
</div><p>Constellation Energy shares soared 25% to a record high on September 20 after it announced plans to reopen its Unit 1 nuclear plant on Three Mile Island. The nuclear plant will provide electricity for Microsoft’s data centers, and this should translate into big bucks for Constellation. The reopening is part of a 20-year deal that should help the software giant slash its carbon footprint. In a presentation, Constellation told investors it expects the Microsoft contract to boost its annual base earnings per share growth rate from 10% to 13% from 2024 to 2030. That seems like small compensation for the 25% higher share price, suggesting to me that CEG stock be overvalued, at least for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Constellation Energy 股价在 9 月 20 日宣布计划重新开放三英里岛 1 号核电站后飙升了 25% 至创纪录高位。这座核电站将为微软的数据中心提供电力，这将为 Constellation 带来巨额收入。这次重新开放是一项为期 20 年的协议的一部分，这应该有助于这家软件巨头削减其碳足迹。Constellation 在一次演示中告诉投资者，它预计微软的合同将从 2024 年至 2030 年将其年基本每股收益增长率从 10% 提高到 13%。对我来说，这似乎是对 25% 更高股价的微薄补偿，至少目前看来 CEG 股票被高估了。</p>
</div><p>A potential risk is that Constellation hasn’t yet applied for any of the permits to reopen the facility, which was closed back in 2019 due to “economic reasons”. Further, Constellation doesn’t even expect the permitting process to be finished until 2027 — if it receives the necessary permits to reopen at all. According to Reuters, no U.S. nuclear power plant has ever been reopened after being shut down, so the whole venture seems unprecedented.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个潜在的风险是 Constellation 尚未申请重新开放该设施所需的任何许可证，该设施由于 “经济原因” 于 2019 年关闭。此外，Constellation 甚至不指望许可流程能在 2027 年之前完成——如果它收到重新开放所需的许可证的话。据路透社报道，美国没有任何核电站在关闭后重新开放过，因此整个项目似乎是前所未有的。</p>
</div><p>While the Microsoft deal was a shot in the arm, Constellation Energy stock is now in overbought territory with a Relative Strength Indicator of about 80. Thus, a downside correction could be right around the corner, which might then present opportunistic investors with a buy-the-dip opportunity and mitigate some of the risk of the project.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管微软的交易是一剂强心针，但 Constellation Energy 股票现在处于超买区，相对强弱指标约为 80。因此，下行修正可能即将到来，这可能为机会主义投资者提供买入机会，并减轻项目的一些风险。</p>
</div><p>At a P/E of 34x, Constellation Energy is trading at a sizable discount to Vistra Energy, however. I still believe that a neutral view is appropriate at this time given the run-up in shares, along with the implementation risks for rebooting the old nuclear plant. Constellation Energy already operates the largest fleet of nuclear plants in the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 34 倍市盈率，Constellation Energy 的股价比 Vistra Energy 交易价格低得多。然而，考虑到股价上涨以及重新启动旧核电站的实施风险，我仍然认为目前持中立观点是合适的。Constellation Energy 已经在美国拥有最大规模的核电站群。</p>
</div><h2><strong>What is the Price Target for CEG stock?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>CEG 股票的目标价是多少？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Constellation Energy has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 10 Buys, two Holds, and zero Sell ratings assigned over the last three months. At $261.75, the average Constellation Energy stock price target approximates the most recent trading value for CEG stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据过去三个月的 10 个买入、两个持有和零卖出评级，Constellation Energy 拥有强烈买入的共识评级。在 261.75 美元的价格上，Constellation Energy 的平均股价目标接近 CEG 股票的最新交易价值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CEG-analysts.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CEG-analysts.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>A Closer Look At Vistra Energy (VST)</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>对 Vistra Energy（VST）的进一步观察</strong></h2>
</div><p>At a P/E of 87x, Vistra Energy is trading at a sizable premium to Constellation Energy despite its involvement in natural gas and coal. The company’s transition from coal to cleaner energy sources is a huge positive, and the stock has soared thus far in 2024. In my view, however, it’s simply overvalued at current levels, opening the prospect for a bearish view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 87 倍市盈率，尽管参与天然气和煤炭，Vistra Energy 的股价比 Constellation Energy 高得多。该公司从煤炭向更清洁能源的转变是一个巨大的积极因素，股价迄今已经飙升。然而，在我看来，它目前的估值过高，开启了对悲观观点的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Just like Constellation, Vistra stock jumped to a new record high this past week and is now in overbought territory with a Relative Strength Index of 81. Here too a correction certainly seems quite possible, especially considering how expensive the stock is. Vistra Energy’s valuation has been quite volatile over the past five years. The company wasn’t even profitable in 2022 or 2021 and has now generated net income of $648 million in the last 12 months on over $14 billion in revenue. That’s a fairly slim net income margin of 4.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就像 Constellation 一样，Vistra 股价在上周飙升至新的历史高位，现在处于超买区，相对强弱指数为 81。这里也可能会出现一次修正，特别是考虑到股价的昂贵程度。在过去五年中，Vistra Energy 的估值一直相当波动。该公司在 2022 年和 2021 年甚至没有盈利，而在过去 12 个月中实现了 6.48 亿美元的净收入，营收超过 140 亿美元。这是一个相当薄弱的净收入利润率为 4.6%。</p>
</div><p>Vista’s uneven quarterly results may be excusable due to the company’s ongoing transition from coal to clean energy sources. According to its 2023 sustainability report, Vistra is making progress on that transition, having achieved a 9% reduction in Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions year over year. The company also states that it has a clear path to hitting its reduction target for 2030. However, this transition also means Vistra Energy faces more broad-based risks than Constellation Energy, which doesn’t burn any coal, although it does burn oil, according to its 2024 ESG factsheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于公司正在从煤炭向清洁能源转变，Vista 的季度业绩不稳定可能是可以原谅的。根据其 2023 年可持续性报告，Vistra 正在取得这一转变的进展，年度 1 排放量减少了 9%。该公司还表示已经明确了实现 2030 年减排目标的途径。然而，这一转变也意味着 Vistra Energy 面临比 Constellation Energy 更广泛的风险，后者不燃烧任何煤炭，尽管根据其 2024 年 ESG 资料表，它确实燃烧石油。</p>
</div><p>Nuclear energy is far more reliable than solar power, and Vistra seems more focused on adding nuclear capacity through acquisitions of nuclear plants. In 2023, Vistra acquired three nuclear facilities. Of course, such acquisitions require a significant amount of capital investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核能比太阳能更可靠，Vistra 似乎更专注于通过收购核电站来增加核能容量。2023 年，Vistra 收购了三个核设施。当然，这种收购需要大量资本投入。</p>
</div><h2><strong>What is the Price Target for VST stock?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>VST 股票的目标价是多少？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Vistra Energy has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on six Buys, zero Holds, and zero Sell ratings assigned over the last three months. However, the recent jump in the share price has elevated the stock above the average VST stock price target of $108.17,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据过去三个月的六个买入、零持有和零卖出评级，Vistra Energy 拥有强烈买入的共识评级。然而，股价最近的飙升使该股超过了 108.17 美元的平均 VST 股价目标。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/VST-analysts-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/VST-analysts-1.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>Conclusion: Neutral on CEG, Bearish on VST</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>结论：对 CEG 持中立观点，对 VST 持悲观观点</strong></h2>
</div><p>A quick glance at TipRanks’ News page for Constellation Energy reveals multiple price target increases, verses a smaller number for Vistra.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 TipRanks 的新闻页面上快速浏览 Constellation Energy，可以看到多个价格目标上调，而 Vistra 的则较少。</p>
</div><p>Both companies face their share of risks, although Vistra’s risks are arguably more broad-based due to its transition away from coal and expansion of solar energy. On the other hand, Constellation faces a unique risk in attempting to recommission the Three Mile Island nuclear plant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管两家公司都面临一定风险，但由于 Vistra 正在转型远离煤炭并扩大太阳能业务，其风险可能更加广泛。另一方面，Constellation 面临独特风险，即尝试重新启用 Three Mile Island 核电站。</p>
</div><p>Constellation looks like the better stock holding at this point, although I have a neutral rating. CEG stock looks like the better buy on a buy-the-dip opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前阶段，Constellation 看起来是更好的股票持有选择，尽管我持中立评级。CEG 股票在买入机会中看起来更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Disclosure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>披露</p>
</div>

CEG 与 VST：哪只清洁能源股票更具优势？