<p>John Paulson 通过押注次级抵押贷款业务在 2007 年房地产市场崩盘时获得巨额利润，成为投资传奇人物。他的故事被记录在书中《史上最伟大的交易》，详细描述了他如何为他的 <strong>Paulson \u0026 Co.</strong> 对冲基金赚取了 150 亿美元，准确预测了抵押危机。</p>
<p>尽管这位亿万富翁后来关闭了基金，但现在通过他的家族办公室进行投资，这是一个为超级富豪提供服务的工具，仅代表个人、家人和少数其他人进行投资。</p>
<p>与其他亿万富翁投资者相比，Paulson 只拥有相对少量的股票。Paul Tudor Jones 拥有近 1500 支股票，Jim Simons 的 <strong>Renaissance Technologies</strong> 则是一个拥有 3400 多支股票的指数基金，而 Paulson 只拥有 16 家公司。</p>
<p>实际上，在第一季度结束时，他拥有另外三家公司的股票，但在随后的三个月里卖掉了所有股份。让我们看看将它们从投资组合中剔除是否是一个明智的交易。</p>
<h2>本文要点：</h2>
<ul>
<li>John Paulson 在 2007 年对冲房地产市场赚取了 150 亿美元的利润，这笔投资被称为 “史上最伟大的交易”</li>
<li>在 2024 年第二季度，这位亿万富翁完全清仓了家族办公室投资组合中的三只股票。又一个精明的决定，还是 Paulson 离场过早？</li>
<li>如果你正在寻找一些潜力巨大的股票，请务必获取我们全新免费报告 “下一个英伟达”。其中包括一家我们确信具有 10 倍潜力的软件公司。</li>
</ul>
<h2>卡罗尔斯餐厅集团</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/imageforentry4-bwk.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/imageforentry4-bwk.jpg"/></p>
<p>汉堡王柜台上的顾客</p>
<p>这位亿万富翁卖掉的第一支股票最容易理解。卡罗尔斯餐厅集团是世界上最大的汉堡王连锁店特许经营商，但也拥有几十家路易斯安那炸鸡餐厅。然而，今年一月，拥有汉堡王和路易斯安那炸鸡等品牌的 <strong>餐厅品牌国际</strong>（NYSE:QSR）宣布将以 10 亿美元收购该特许经营商。</p>
<p>总体而言，汉堡王的特许经营商一直处于困难时期，销售额输给了 <strong>麦当劳</strong>（NYSE:MCD）等其他品牌。去年，经营约 200 家餐厅的两家大型特许经营商 Toms King 和 Meridian Restaurants Unlimited 宣布破产。</p>
<p>在新冠疫情爆发之前，汉堡王就已经步履维艰，而其他快餐连锁运营商在疫情后蓬勃发展，快餐连锁仍在持续走下坡路。这导致餐厅品牌国际推出 “重振火焰” 计划来扭转汉堡连锁店的局面。虽然它从破产特许经营商那里收购了一些门店，但它还与卡罗尔斯达成了每股 9.55 美元的收购协议。Paulson 持有 TAST 股票的平均买入价为每股 8.70 美元，赚取了近 10% 的利润。</p>
<h2>Newmark 集团（NMRK）</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/imageforentry3-avg.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/imageforentry3-avg.jpg"/></p>
<p>一名女性高管在会议上</p>
<p>这位亿万富翁在第二季度清仓的第二支股票是 <strong>Newmark 集团</strong>（NASDAQ:NMRK），一家商业房地产服务公司，Paulson 之前持有 300 万股。</p>
<p>这是一笔耐人寻味的交易，因为尽管 Newark 的股价在上半年基本持平，围绕每股 10 至 11 美元之间波动，但商业房地产市场前景看好。</p>
<p>尽管办公空置率仍然偏高，但利率下调的前景（现已得到美联储半个百分点的降息确认）表明增长即将到来。摩根大通（NYSE:JPM）的分析师表示，“在定价方面，这将是一个关键年份，涉及到价格发现。”</p>
<p>Newmark 集团的股价似乎正在上演。年初至今股价上涨了 39%，但自第二季度末以来，NMRK 股价飙升了 55%，这意味着 Paulson 错过了一些显著的潜在收益。即便如此，以每股 10.25 美元的平均买入价，他仍对持有股票获得了 48% 的暗含利润。</p>
<h2>阿里巴巴（BABA）</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/imageforentry2-doe.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/imageforentry2-doe.jpg"/></p>
<p>一名持信用卡的人在笔记本电脑前</p>
<p>Paulson 卖掉的第三支股票是中国电商巨头 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>（NYSE:BABA）。看起来这是另一支亿万富翁过早退出的股票。虽然该公司一直受到北京的严格监管，指控其使用垄断行为，但阿里巴巴刚刚收到了不再受到政府监视的明确信号。它已改革了自己的方式，可以再次追求增长。</p>
<p>自第二季度末以来，BABA 股价上涨了 25%，现在交易于新的 52 周高位。然而，与疫情期间的高点相比，仍下跌了 70%。</p>
<p>Paulson 长期持有了 5 万股，但选择在第二季度清仓。由于他的平均买入价为每股 151 美元，他可能已经厌倦了等待从未出现的好转。通过在股价飙升时出售，亿万富翁可能已经收回了部分投资。</p>
<p>现在股价在 4 月底至 5 月初出现了上涨，使阿里巴巴的股价几乎达到了今天的交易水平，因此这位亿万富翁可能已经在股价飙升时收回了部分投资。</p>
<h2><strong>准备好退休（赞助内容）</strong></h2>
<p>从 SmartAsset 快速进行一项退休测验，将在 5 分钟内为您匹配多达 3 名为您提供服务的理财顾问，这些顾问不仅经过 SmartAsset 的审核，而且还被要求遵守以您的最佳利益行事的受托人标准。</p>
<p>这是它的工作原理：</p>
<ol>
<li>
<p>回答 SmartAsset 顾问匹配问卷</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>自由查看您预先筛选的匹配结果。查看顾问的个人资料。</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>与顾问免费交流。通过电话进行初步通话或面对面介绍，并选择未来合作的对象</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>立即开始。</p>
<p>这篇文章《‘史上最伟大的交易’ 亿万富翁卖出这 3 只股票是个好交易吗？》最初发布在 24/7 Wall St. 上。</p>

NMRK

<p>约翰·保尔森以成功押注次级抵押贷款市场而闻名，他在 2024 年第二季度从其家族办公室投资组合中卖出了三只股票。他卖出了卡罗尔斯餐厅集团，赚取了近 10% 的利润，以及 Newmark 集团，在那里他获得了暗含的 48% 利润，但错过了随后股价飙升带来的进一步收益。最后，他卖出了阿里巴巴，该公司面临监管挑战。文章质疑这些交易是否明智，或者他是否退出得太早</p>

<p>John Paulson became an investing legend by parlaying bets against the subprime mortgage lending business into massive profits when the housing market collapsed in 2007. His story was recounted in the book, <em>The Greatest Trade Ever</em>, which details how he made a whopping $15 billion for his <strong>Paulson &amp; Co.</strong> hedge fund by correctly calling the mortgage crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>John Paulson 通过押注次级抵押贷款业务在 2007 年房地产市场崩盘时获得巨额利润，成为投资传奇人物。他的故事被记录在书中《史上最伟大的交易》，详细描述了他如何为他的 <strong>Paulson \u0026 Co.</strong> 对冲基金赚取了 150 亿美元，准确预测了抵押危机。</p>
</div><p>While the billionaire has since closed the fund, he now invests through his family office, a vehicle for the uber-rich that only invests on behalf of the individual, his family, and a select few others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这位亿万富翁后来关闭了基金，但现在通过他的家族办公室进行投资，这是一个为超级富豪提供服务的工具，仅代表个人、家人和少数其他人进行投资。</p>
</div><p>Paulson only owns a relative handful of stocks compared to other billionaire investors. Where Paul Tudor Jones owns almost 1,500 stocks and Jim Simons <strong>Renaissance Technologies</strong> is a veritable index fund with over 3,400 stocks, Paulson only owns 16 companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与其他亿万富翁投资者相比，Paulson 只拥有相对少量的股票。Paul Tudor Jones 拥有近 1500 支股票，Jim Simons 的 <strong>Renaissance Technologies</strong> 则是一个拥有 3400 多支股票的指数基金，而 Paulson 只拥有 16 家公司。</p>
</div><p>Actually at the end of the first quarter he had owned three others, but he sold off all the shares he held in the ensuing three months. Let’s look to see if jettisoning them from his portfolio was a great trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际上，在第一季度结束时，他拥有另外三家公司的股票，但在随后的三个月里卖掉了所有股份。让我们看看将它们从投资组合中剔除是否是一个明智的交易。</p>
</div><h2>Key Points About This Article:</h2>
<ul>
<li>John Paulson’s bet against the housing market in 2007 netted him $15 billion in profits, an investment deemed “The Greatest Trade Ever”</li>
<li>In the second quarter of 2024, the billionaire completely dumped his positions in three stocks for his family office portfolio. Another prescient call, or did Paulson get out too soon?</li>
<li>If you’re looking for some stocks with huge potential, make sure to grab a free copy of our brand-new “The Next NVIDIA” report. It features a software stock we’re confident has 10X potential.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>本文要点：</h2>
<ul>
<li>John Paulson 在 2007 年对冲房地产市场赚取了 150 亿美元的利润，这笔投资被称为 “史上最伟大的交易”</li>
<li>在 2024 年第二季度，这位亿万富翁完全清仓了家族办公室投资组合中的三只股票。又一个精明的决定，还是 Paulson 离场过早？</li>
<li>如果你正在寻找一些潜力巨大的股票，请务必获取我们全新免费报告 “下一个英伟达”。其中包括一家我们确信具有 10 倍潜力的软件公司。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Carrols Restaurant Group</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>卡罗尔斯餐厅集团</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/imageforentry4-bwk.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/imageforentry4-bwk.jpg"/></p>
<p>Customers at the counter of Burger King</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汉堡王柜台上的顾客</p>
</div><p>The first stock he sold down is the easiest to understand. Carrols Restaurant Group was the world’s largest franchisee of Burger King restaurants, but also owned several dozen Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen locations as well. However, in January, <strong>Restaurant Brands International</strong> (NYSE:QSR), which owns Burger King and Popeyes — as well as Tim Horton’s and Firehouse Subs — announced it was acquiring the franchisee for $1 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位亿万富翁卖掉的第一支股票最容易理解。卡罗尔斯餐厅集团是世界上最大的汉堡王连锁店特许经营商，但也拥有几十家路易斯安那炸鸡餐厅。然而，今年一月，拥有汉堡王和路易斯安那炸鸡等品牌的 <strong>餐厅品牌国际</strong>（NYSE:QSR）宣布将以 10 亿美元收购该特许经营商。</p>
</div><p>Burger King franchisees, on the whole, have been experiencing difficult times, losing sales to <strong>McDonald’s</strong> (NYSE:MCD) and others. Last year, two large franchisees operating some 200 restaurants, Toms King and Meridian Restaurants Unlimited, declared bankruptcy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，汉堡王的特许经营商一直处于困难时期，销售额输给了 <strong>麦当劳</strong>（NYSE:MCD）等其他品牌。去年，经营约 200 家餐厅的两家大型特许经营商 Toms King 和 Meridian Restaurants Unlimited 宣布破产。</p>
</div><p>Burger King was stumbling before the Covid pandemic hit and where other quick-serve operators surged afterwards, the fast-food chain continued on a downward trajectory. That led Restaurant Brands International to launch its “Reclaim the Flame” initiative to turn the burger chain around. While it acquired a few of the locations from the failed franchisees, it negotiated a buyout of Carrols for $9.55 per share. Paulson, with an average buy price of $8.70 per share for his 58,000 shares of TAST stock, earned a near-10% profit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新冠疫情爆发之前，汉堡王就已经步履维艰，而其他快餐连锁运营商在疫情后蓬勃发展，快餐连锁仍在持续走下坡路。这导致餐厅品牌国际推出 “重振火焰” 计划来扭转汉堡连锁店的局面。虽然它从破产特许经营商那里收购了一些门店，但它还与卡罗尔斯达成了每股 9.55 美元的收购协议。Paulson 持有 TAST 股票的平均买入价为每股 8.70 美元，赚取了近 10% 的利润。</p>
</div><h2>Newmark Group (NMRK)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Newmark 集团（NMRK）</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/imageforentry3-avg.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/imageforentry3-avg.jpg"/></p>
<p>Female executive at a meeting</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一名女性高管在会议上</p>
</div><p>The second stock the billionaire investor dumped in the second quarter was <strong>Newmark Group</strong> (NASDAQ:NMRK), a commercial real estate services company, that Paulson previously owned 3 million shares of.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位亿万富翁在第二季度清仓的第二支股票是 <strong>Newmark 集团</strong>（NASDAQ:NMRK），一家商业房地产服务公司，Paulson 之前持有 300 万股。</p>
</div><p>It was a curious trade because while Newark’s stock had largely traded sideways through the first half of the year, bouncing around a narrow band between $10 and $11 per share, the outlook for the commercial real estate market itself is strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一笔耐人寻味的交易，因为尽管 Newark 的股价在上半年基本持平，围绕每股 10 至 11 美元之间波动，但商业房地产市场前景看好。</p>
</div><p>Although office vacancy rates remain elevated, the prospects for interest rate cuts (now confirmed by the Federal Reserve’s half percentage point cut), suggested growth was coming. Analysts at <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong> (NYSE:JPM) said, “On the pricing side, it’s going to be a landmark year when it comes to price discovery.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管办公空置率仍然偏高，但利率下调的前景（现已得到美联储半个百分点的降息确认）表明增长即将到来。摩根大通（NYSE:JPM）的分析师表示，“在定价方面，这将是一个关键年份，涉及到价格发现。”</p>
</div><p>That seems to be playing out with Newmark Group’s stock. Shares are up 39% year-to-date, but since the end of the second quarter NMRK stock is soaring 55% higher, meaning Paulson missed out on some significant potential gains. Even so, with an average buy price of $10.25 per share, he still made an implied 48% profit on his holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Newmark 集团的股价似乎正在上演。年初至今股价上涨了 39%，但自第二季度末以来，NMRK 股价飙升了 55%，这意味着 Paulson 错过了一些显著的潜在收益。即便如此，以每股 10.25 美元的平均买入价，他仍对持有股票获得了 48% 的暗含利润。</p>
</div><h2>Alibaba (BABA)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿里巴巴（BABA）</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/imageforentry2-doe.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/imageforentry2-doe.jpg"/></p>
<p>Person holding their credit card in front of a laptop</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一名持信用卡的人在笔记本电脑前</p>
</div><p>The third stock Paulson sold off was Chinese e-commerce giant <strong>Alibaba</strong> (NYSE:BABA). It seems to be another stock the billionaire got out of too early. While the company had been under intense regulatory scrutiny by Beijing, which had charged it with using monopolistic practices, Alibaba just got the all-clear signal that it would no long be under the government’s watchful eye. It had reformed its ways and could pursue growth once more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Paulson 卖掉的第三支股票是中国电商巨头 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>（NYSE:BABA）。看起来这是另一支亿万富翁过早退出的股票。虽然该公司一直受到北京的严格监管，指控其使用垄断行为，但阿里巴巴刚刚收到了不再受到政府监视的明确信号。它已改革了自己的方式，可以再次追求增长。</p>
</div><p>BABA shares are up 25% since the end of the second quarter and now trade at new 52-week highs. However, they are still down 70% from their pandemic highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自第二季度末以来，BABA 股价上涨了 25%，现在交易于新的 52 周高位。然而，与疫情期间的高点相比，仍下跌了 70%。</p>
</div><p>Paulson had maintained a 50,000-share position for some time, but chose to close out his holdings in the second quarter. As he had an average buy-in price of $151 per share, he may have grown tired of waiting for a turnaround that never seemed to materialize. By selling when he did, Paulson had an implied 47% loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Paulson 长期持有了 5 万股，但选择在第二季度清仓。由于他的平均买入价为每股 151 美元，他可能已经厌倦了等待从未出现的好转。通过在股价飙升时出售，亿万富翁可能已经收回了部分投资。</p>
</div><p>Now there was a run-up in the stock in late-April to early-May that had brought Alibaba’s stock almost to where it trades today, so the billionaire investor may have recouped some of his investment if he sold out when shares were running hot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在股价在 4 月底至 5 月初出现了上涨，使阿里巴巴的股价几乎达到了今天的交易水平，因此这位亿万富翁可能已经在股价飙升时收回了部分投资。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Get Ready To Retire (Sponsored)</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>准备好退休（赞助内容）</strong></h2>
</div><p>Start by taking a quick retirement quiz from SmartAsset that will match you with up to 3 financial advisors that serve your area and beyond in 5 minutes, or less.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 SmartAsset 快速进行一项退休测验，将在 5 分钟内为您匹配多达 3 名为您提供服务的理财顾问，这些顾问不仅经过 SmartAsset 的审核，而且还被要求遵守以您的最佳利益行事的受托人标准。</p>
</div><p>Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests.</p>
<p>Here’s how it works:</p>
<p>1. Answer SmartAsset advisor match quiz</p>
<p>2. Review your pre-screened matches at your leisure. Check out the advisors’ profiles.</p>
<p>3. Speak with advisors at no cost to you. Have an introductory call on the phone or introduction in person and choose whom to work with in the future</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是它的工作原理：</p>
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</div><p>The post Did ‘The Greatest Trade Ever’ Billionaire Make a Great Trade Selling These 3 Stocks? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章《‘史上最伟大的交易’ 亿万富翁卖出这 3 只股票是个好交易吗？》最初发布在 24/7 Wall St. 上。</p>
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Did ‘The Greatest Trade Ever’ Billionaire Make a Great Trade Selling These 3 Stocks?

247wallst

“有史以来最伟大交易” 的亿万富翁卖出这三只股票是一个明智的交易吗？