<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/04/ibm.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/04/ibm.jpeg"/></p>
<p>国际商业机器（IBM）股价表现强劲，投资者对其持续增长和人工智能（AI）领域的曝光感到满意，股价连续五个月上涨，目前达到历史最高水平，超过 221 美元。年初至今涨幅为 40%，市值超过 2030 亿美元。</p>
<h2>IBM 的增长仍然缓慢</h2>
<p>IBM，也被称为大蓝，是一家领先的科技公司，为全球企业提供众多产品和服务。与微软和谷歌等公司不同，IBM 没有针对零售客户的产品。</p>
<p>IBM 的业务由多个部门组成。它在咨询行业是一家重要的参与者，帮助其他公司整合技术。</p>
<p>该公司拥有庞大的软件业务和基础架构部门。在软件领域，大蓝在自动化、安全和交易处理等领域是重要参与者。此外，其基础架构部门包括 IBM Z 和分布式基础架构。</p>
<p>IBM 向全球数千家公司提供服务，如美国银行、沃尔玛、维萨和花旗集团。</p>
<p>在阿文德·克里什纳的领导下，IBM 的业务正在经历重大转型。最大的变化是决定剥离其价值超过 50 亿美元的 Kyndryl 业务，该公司提供应用程序、云、网络安全和人工智能等解决方案。</p>
<p>通过剥离 Kyndryl，IBM 将全球员工人数减少了超过 5.6 万人。它也与一家历史上利润率较低的公司分道扬镳。最近的财务结果显示，Kyndryl 的毛利率为 19%，净利润率为-1.21%。</p>
<p>另一方面，留下的 IBM 的毛利率为 56%，净利润率为 13.3%。其利润率远高于行业中位数的 49% 和 3.62%。</p>
<p>IBM 做出的另一个关键决定是以 340 亿美元收购 RedHat。这一收购使 IBM 获得了一个平台，帮助企业在本地部署、运行和管理数据应用程序，并在多个公共云上运行。</p>
<p>总的来说，财务结果显示，IBM 的收入在过去几年中一直在增长。其年收入从 2019 年的 560 亿美元增长到上一财年的 618 亿美元，增长了 6%。</p>
<p>IBM 的增长速度远远低于其他科技公司。例如，甲骨文的收入从 390 亿美元增长到 520 亿美元，增长了 13%，而微软的增长超过 71%。思科这样的另一家老牌科技公司的收入增长了 8.16%。</p>
<h2>IBM 的增长仍然缓慢</h2>
<p>最近的财务结果显示，IBM 上一季度的收入增长了 2%，达到 158 亿美元。这一收入增长仅由其软件业务推动，实现了 67 亿美元的收入。</p>
<p>另外两个部门——咨询和基础设施——分别下降了 1%，达到 52 亿美元和 36 亿美元。</p>
<p>这些数据意味着，尽管人工智能领域持续发展，IBM 的收入增长已经停滞。此外，美国经济增长速度快于该公司。</p>
<p>分析师预计，IBM 的增长在未来几个月仍将缓慢。其 632 亿美元的年收入将比去年增长 2.2%。IBM 的收入随后将缓慢增长至 663 亿美元。</p>
<h2>被高估的股息贵族</h2>
<p>IBM 股票上涨可能是因为其长期以来一直奖励股东的强劲记录。其股息率为 3.02%，并且连续 24 年增加股息支付。其过去五年的股息增长率为 1.80%，低于其他公司。</p>
<p>因此，由于 IBM 已连续 24 年提高股息，并且股息支付比率为 65%，有可能成为股息贵族。</p>
<p>然而，挑战在于 IBM 已成为一家高度被高估的公司，其前瞻市盈率为 24.4，前瞻企业价值与息税折旧摊销前利润比率为 16.2。</p>
<p>由于其收入和市场份额增长缓慢，IBM 比微软、谷歌和亚马逊等其他知名公司更便宜。</p>
<h2>IBM 股价分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/IBM-stock-1024x568.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/IBM-stock-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p>IBM 股价图表由 TradingView 提供</p>
<p>周线图显示，IBM 股价一直处于强劲的牛市，并已升至历史最高点。</p>
<p>最近，股价突破了 195.5 美元的重要阻力点，这是今年三月份的最高点。通过突破该水平，股价无效了正在形成的双顶形态。</p>
<p>IBM 的振荡指标如 MACD 和相对强度指数（RSI）均上升，并处于超买水平。</p>
<p>因此，IBM 股价可能会回落，并在未来几个月重新测试 195.51 美元的重要支撑水平。关键事件将是 10 月 23 日的财报。分析师预计，这些数据将显示其第三季度收入增至 150 亿美元。</p>
<p>文章来源：Invezz，IBM 股价上涨，但这家未来的股息贵族面临重大风险</p>

<p>IBM 的股价大幅上涨，创下历史新高，年初至今涨幅达到 40%，这主要受益于人工智能领域的增长和强劲的股息历史。然而，该公司在咨询和基础设施领域的收入增长缓慢，面临挑战。分析师预测 IBM 将继续面临缓慢增长，虽然 IBM 被视为潜在的股息贵族，但目前被认为是高估值的，具有较高的市盈率。尽管存在这些担忧，IBM 的股价在最近几个月表现强劲，突破了关键阻力水平</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/04/ibm.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/04/ibm.jpeg"/></p>
<p>The International Business Machines (IBM) stock price is firing on all cylinders as investors cheer its ongoing growth and exposure to artificial intelligence (AI). It has risen in five consecutive months and is sitting at an all-time high of over $221. Its year-to-date gains are 40%, giving it a market cap of over $203 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际商业机器（IBM）股价表现强劲，投资者对其持续增长和人工智能（AI）领域的曝光感到满意，股价连续五个月上涨，目前达到历史最高水平，超过 221 美元。年初至今涨幅为 40%，市值超过 2030 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>IBM’s slow growth is continuing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>IBM 的增长仍然缓慢</h2>
</div><p>IBM, also known as the Big Blue, is a leading technology company offering global businesses numerous products and services. Unlike firms like Microsoft and Google, IBM has no products that targets retail clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IBM，也被称为大蓝，是一家领先的科技公司，为全球企业提供众多产品和服务。与微软和谷歌等公司不同，IBM 没有针对零售客户的产品。</p>
</div><p>IBM’s business is made up of several segments. It is a large player in the consulting industry, where it helps other firms integrate technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IBM 的业务由多个部门组成。它在咨询行业是一家重要的参与者，帮助其他公司整合技术。</p>
</div><p>The company has a large software business and an infrastructure division. In software, the the Big Blue is a big player in areas like automation, security, and transaction processing. Also, its infrastructure division comprises IBM Z and distributed infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司拥有庞大的软件业务和基础架构部门。在软件领域，大蓝在自动化、安全和交易处理等领域是重要参与者。此外，其基础架构部门包括 IBM Z 和分布式基础架构。</p>
</div><p>IBM provides its services to thousands of companies globally, such as Bank of America, Walmart, Visa, and Citigroup.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IBM 向全球数千家公司提供服务，如美国银行、沃尔玛、维萨和花旗集团。</p>
</div><p>Its business has been going through a major transformation under Arvind Krishner. The biggest change was its decision to spin off its Kyndryl business, a company valued at over $5 billion that offers solutions like applications, cloud, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在阿文德·克里什纳的领导下，IBM 的业务正在经历重大转型。最大的变化是决定剥离其价值超过 50 亿美元的 Kyndryl 业务，该公司提供应用程序、云、网络安全和人工智能等解决方案。</p>
</div><p>By spinning off Kyndryl, IBM reduced the number of its global employees by over 56,000. It also separated from a company that has, historically, had low margins. The most recent financial results revealed that Kyndryl had a gross margin of 19% and a net income margin of minus 1.21%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过剥离 Kyndryl，IBM 将全球员工人数减少了超过 5.6 万人。它也与一家历史上利润率较低的公司分道扬镳。最近的财务结果显示，Kyndryl 的毛利率为 19%，净利润率为-1.21%。</p>
</div><p>IBM, the remainco, on the other hand, has a gross margin of 56% and a net income margin of 13.3%. Its margin numbers are much higher than the industry median of 49% and 3.62%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，留下的 IBM 的毛利率为 56%，净利润率为 13.3%。其利润率远高于行业中位数的 49% 和 3.62%。</p>
</div><p>The other key decision that IBM made was to acquire RedHat in a $34 billion deal. This buyout gave IBM a platform that helps businesses deploy, run, and manage data applications on-premises and on multiple public clouds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IBM 做出的另一个关键决定是以 340 亿美元收购 RedHat。这一收购使 IBM 获得了一个平台，帮助企业在本地部署、运行和管理数据应用程序，并在多个公共云上运行。</p>
</div><p>Altogether, financial results shows that IBM’s revenues have been growing in the past few years. Its annual revenue jumped from $56 billion in 2019 to over $61.8 billion in the last financial year, a 6% increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，财务结果显示，IBM 的收入在过去几年中一直在增长。其年收入从 2019 年的 560 亿美元增长到上一财年的 618 亿美元，增长了 6%。</p>
</div><p>IBM’s growth has been much slower than other tech companies. For example, Oracle’s revenue rose from $39 billion to $52 billion in this period, a 13% increase, while Microsoft’s rose by over 71%. Cisco, another old-tech company’s revenue rose by 8.16%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IBM 的增长速度远远低于其他科技公司。例如，甲骨文的收入从 390 亿美元增长到 520 亿美元，增长了 13%，而微软的增长超过 71%。思科这样的另一家老牌科技公司的收入增长了 8.16%。</p>
</div><h2>IBM’s slow growth is continuing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>IBM 的增长仍然缓慢</h2>
</div><p>The most recent financial results showed that IBM’s quarterly revenue rose by 2% in the last quarter to $15.8 billion. This revenue growth was only driven by its software business, which made $6.7 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的财务结果显示，IBM 上一季度的收入增长了 2%，达到 158 亿美元。这一收入增长仅由其软件业务推动，实现了 67 亿美元的收入。</p>
</div><p>The other two segments – consulting and infrastructure – dropped by 1% to $5.2 billion and $3.6 billion, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另外两个部门——咨询和基础设施——分别下降了 1%，达到 52 亿美元和 36 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>These numbers mean that, despite the ongoing trends in AI, IBM’s revenue growth has stalled. Besides, the American economy is growing at a faster rate than the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数据意味着，尽管人工智能领域持续发展，IBM 的收入增长已经停滞。此外，美国经济增长速度快于该公司。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect that IBM’s growth will continue being slow in the coming months. Its annual revenue of $63.2 billion will be a 2.2% increase from last year. IBM’s revenue will then grow slowly to $66.30 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计，IBM 的增长在未来几个月仍将缓慢。其 632 亿美元的年收入将比去年增长 2.2%。IBM 的收入随后将缓慢增长至 663 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Overvalued dividend aristocrat</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>被高估的股息贵族</h2>
</div><p>IBM stock has jumped likely because of its strong track record of rewarding shareholders. It has a dividend yield of 3.02% and has constantly grown its dividend payouts for 24 years. Its last five-year dividend growth rate was 1.80%, lower than other companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IBM 股票上涨可能是因为其长期以来一直奖励股东的强劲记录。其股息率为 3.02%，并且连续 24 年增加股息支付。其过去五年的股息增长率为 1.80%，低于其他公司。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, since IBM has raised dividends for 24 years, and has a payout ratio of 65%, there are odds that it will become a dividend aristocrat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，由于 IBM 已连续 24 年提高股息，并且股息支付比率为 65%，有可能成为股息贵族。</p>
</div><p>The challenge, however, is that IBM has become a highly overvalued company trading at a forward P/E ratio of 24.4 and a forward EV to EBITDA ratio of 16.2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，挑战在于 IBM 已成为一家高度被高估的公司，其前瞻市盈率为 24.4，前瞻企业价值与息税折旧摊销前利润比率为 16.2。</p>
</div><p>IBM is cheaper than other big names like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon because of its slow revenue and market share growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于其收入和市场份额增长缓慢，IBM 比微软、谷歌和亚马逊等其他知名公司更便宜。</p>
</div><h2>IBM stock price analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>IBM 股价分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/IBM-stock-1024x568.png" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/IBM-stock-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p>IBM chart by TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IBM 股价图表由 TradingView 提供</p>
</div><p>The weekly chart shows that the IBM share price has been in a strong bull run and has moved to the highest point on record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周线图显示，IBM 股价一直处于强劲的牛市，并已升至历史最高点。</p>
</div><p>It recently flipped the important resistance point at $195.5, its highest point in March this year. By moving above that level, the stock invalidated the double-top pattern that was forming</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，股价突破了 195.5 美元的重要阻力点，这是今年三月份的最高点。通过突破该水平，股价无效了正在形成的双顶形态。</p>
</div><p>IBM’s oscillators like the MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have all moved upwards and are in their overbought levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IBM 的振荡指标如 MACD 和相对强度指数（RSI）均上升，并处于超买水平。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the IBM share price will likely retreat and retest the important support level at $195.51 in the coming months. The key event to watch will be its earnings on October 23rd. Analysts expect these numbers to show that its revenue rose to $15 billion in the third quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，IBM 股价可能会回落，并在未来几个月重新测试 195.51 美元的重要支撑水平。关键事件将是 10 月 23 日的财报。分析师预计，这些数据将显示其第三季度收入增至 150 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The post IBM stock is rising, but this future dividend aristocrat has a key risk appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>文章来源：Invezz，IBM 股价上涨，但这家未来的股息贵族面临重大风险</p>
</div>

IBM 股票正在上涨，但这位未来的股息贵族面临一个关键风险