<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/02/warner.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/02/warner.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Warner Bros. Discovery（纳斯达克股票代码：WBD）股票是今年媒体行业表现最糟糕的之一。今年下跌超过 28%，而标普 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数则上涨超过 20%。</p>
<p>自 2022 年 4 月 WarnerMedia 和 Discovery 合并以来，WBD 的表现延续了这一趋势。自那时以来下跌超过 60%，这意味着对该公司的 1 万美元投资现在价值不到 4,000 美元。</p>
<p>WBD 的市值已从 500 亿美元降至约 200 亿美元。另一方面，Netflix 继续保持强劲增长，在过去 12 个月上涨超过 85%，使其估值达到 3040 亿美元。</p>
<h2>Warner Bros. Discovery 为何陷入困境</h2>
<p>Warner Bros. Discovery 的表现与其他媒体公司类似。例如，Paramount Global，CBS、Nickelodeon、Comedy Central 和 MTV 的母公司，在过去几年中下跌超过 70%，市值为 75 亿美元。</p>
<p>迪士尼，拥有 ABC 和 ESPN，从 2020 年最高水平下跌超过 53%。</p>
<p>这些股票下跌是因为媒体行业发生了变化，可能是永久性的。因此，过去热门的品牌变得不受欢迎。例如，过去人们会观看 MTV 和 BET 以获取最新音乐。</p>
<p>如今，情况已经改变，得益于 YouTube 等免费服务和 Apple Music、TikTok 和 Spotify 等流媒体解决方案。</p>
<p>同样，Nickelodeon 和 Cartoon Network 曾是儿童最喜爱的频道。现在情况已经改变，YouTube 拥有最大的市场份额。</p>
<p>这一趋势导致许多美国人开始削减有线电视，因为他们大多数时候很少看电视。Statista 的数据显示，2014 年没有传统电视的电视户比例从 18.8% 增长到 2023 年的 60%。这一趋势将继续增长，到 2026 年底将达到 75%。</p>
<p>削减有线电视对 Warner Bros. Discovery 有重大影响。首先，它减少了公司从广告收入获得的收入，因为大多数公司现在选择其他营销形式。</p>
<p>此外，它减少了公司从像 Charter Communications、Comcast 和 Dish Networks 这样的有线电视公司获得的资金。</p>
<h2>WBD 的盈利令人失望</h2>
<p>Warner Bros. Discovery 的股价下跌是因为公司的收入增长缓慢。其第二季度收入在第二季度下降了 5%，至 97 亿美元。</p>
<p>这一收入下降分布在制片厂和网络部门。制片厂，制作了诸如《哥斯拉大战金刚》和《沙丘》等热门院线发行影片，下降了 4%，至 24.5 亿美元。电视收入也因许可费低而下降了 27%。</p>
<p>制片厂部门的疲软表现尤为引人注目，因为它是其摇钱树之一。它在一个其他大玩家为迪士尼和派拉蒙的行业中拥有很大的市场份额。</p>
<p>与此同时，网络业务的收入继续下滑，上季度达到 52 亿美元。这一下降主要是因为广告和分销部门疲软。最重要的是，公司对其网络部门进行了大规模减值，这解释了为什么在该季度报告了 101 亿美元的巨额亏损。</p>
<p>最重要的是，Warner 的直接消费业务增长不如预期。总直接消费订户为 1.033 亿，比上一季度增加 360 万。尽管增加，但由于许可费低，该部门的收入下降了 5%，至 25.6 亿美元。</p>
<p>因此，Warner Bros. Discovery 的业务需要一个良好的扭转策略，尤其是公司失去了 NBA 的权利。在我看来，这种扭转应包括出售部分资产，并利用资金偿还高额债务。</p>
<p>现在是出售部分或全部电视网络的最佳时机，因为它们仍然具有一定价值。然而，在未来十年，它们的估值将继续下降，就像我们在派拉蒙身上看到的那样。事实上，有风险，像 Charter 这样的有线电视公司将取消一些网络。</p>
<p>它面临的另一个挑战是未来几年将面临重大到期债务。到 2026 年，其价值超过 30 亿美元，这将影响其内容投资。</p>
<h2>Warner Bros. Discovery 股票分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/Warner-Bros.-Discovery-stock-1024x568.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/Warner-Bros.-Discovery-stock-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p>日线图显示，WBD 股价在过去几个月内横盘走势，投资者在等待下一个催化剂。它形成了一个矩形图案，下限和上限分别为 6.92 美元和 8.90 美元。</p>
<p>股票还在 50 天和 200 天指数移动平均线之间盘整。</p>
<p>有迹象表明它形成了一个小的看涨旗形图案。因此，该股的前景是中性的，关键点在于观察 8.90 美元和 6.92 美元。突破支撑将指向更多下跌，而突破 8.90 美元将导致更多涨幅。</p>
<p>文章来源：Invezz</p>

<p>Warner Bros. Discovery（纳斯达克股票代码：WBD）股价今年已下跌超过 28%，明显表现不佳，与标普 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数相比。自 2022 年 4 月合并以来，其价值已经下跌超过 60%。这一下滑被归因于媒体消费习惯的变化，削减有线电视对广告收入和有线合作伙伴关系的影响。该公司第二季度营收下降了 5%，网络部门出现了重大亏损。分析师建议制定一项扭转策略，包括资产出售以管理高额债务，因为该公司面临着重大的财务挑战</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/02/warner.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/02/warner.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ: WBD) stock has been one of the worst performers in the media industry this year. It has dropped by over 28% this year, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have soared by over 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Warner Bros. Discovery（纳斯达克股票代码：WBD）股票是今年媒体行业表现最糟糕的之一。今年下跌超过 28%，而标普 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数则上涨超过 20%。</p>
</div><p>WBD’s performance is a continuation of what has been happening since WarnerMedia and Discovery merged in April 2022. It has dropped by over 60% since then, meaning that a $10,000 investment in the company would now be worth less than $4,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年 4 月 WarnerMedia 和 Discovery 合并以来，WBD 的表现延续了这一趋势。自那时以来下跌超过 60%，这意味着对该公司的 1 万美元投资现在价值不到 4,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>WBD’s market cap has dropped from over $50 billion to about $20 billion. Netflix, on the other hand, has continued firing on all cylinders, rising by over 85% in the last 12 months, bringing its valuation to $304 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WBD 的市值已从 500 亿美元降至约 200 亿美元。另一方面，Netflix 继续保持强劲增长，在过去 12 个月上涨超过 85%，使其估值达到 3040 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Why Warner Bros. Discovery is struggling</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Warner Bros. Discovery 为何陷入困境</h2>
</div><p>Warner Bros. Discovery’s performance has mirrored that of other media companies. For example, Paramount Global, the parent company of CBS, Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, and MTV, has crashed by over 70% in the past few years, giving it a market cap of $7.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Warner Bros. Discovery 的表现与其他媒体公司类似。例如，Paramount Global，CBS、Nickelodeon、Comedy Central 和 MTV 的母公司，在过去几年中下跌超过 70%，市值为 75 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Walt Disney, which owns ABC and ESPN, has dropped by over 53% from its highest level in 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪士尼，拥有 ABC 和 ESPN，从 2020 年最高水平下跌超过 53%。</p>
</div><p>These stocks have dropped because the media industry has changed, possibly for good. As a result, brands that used to be hot a decade ago have become toxic. For example, in the past, people used to watch MTV and BET to get the latest music.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些股票下跌是因为媒体行业发生了变化，可能是永久性的。因此，过去热门的品牌变得不受欢迎。例如，过去人们会观看 MTV 和 BET 以获取最新音乐。</p>
</div><p>Today, that has changed, thanks to a free service like YouTube and streaming solutions like Apple Music, TikTok, and Spotify.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，情况已经改变，得益于 YouTube 等免费服务和 Apple Music、TikTok 和 Spotify 等流媒体解决方案。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, Nickelodeon and Cartoon Network were the best channels for children. That has changed, with YouTube having the biggest market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，Nickelodeon 和 Cartoon Network 曾是儿童最喜爱的频道。现在情况已经改变，YouTube 拥有最大的市场份额。</p>
</div><p>This trend has seen many Americans embrace cord cutting since most of them rarely watch TV. Data by Statista show that the share of TV households without a traditional TV has grown from 18.8% in 2014 to 60% in 2023. This trend will continue to grow to 75% by the end of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一趋势导致许多美国人开始削减有线电视，因为他们大多数时候很少看电视。Statista 的数据显示，2014 年没有传统电视的电视户比例从 18.8% 增长到 2023 年的 60%。这一趋势将继续增长，到 2026 年底将达到 75%。</p>
</div><p>Cord cutting has a major impact on Warner Bros. Discovery. In the first place, it reduces its advertisement revenue now that most companies are opting for other forms of marketing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>削减有线电视对 Warner Bros. Discovery 有重大影响。首先，它减少了公司从广告收入获得的收入，因为大多数公司现在选择其他营销形式。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, it reduces the amount of money the company receives from cable companies like Charter Communications, Comcast, and Dish Networks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，它减少了公司从像 Charter Communications、Comcast 和 Dish Networks 这样的有线电视公司获得的资金。</p>
</div><h2>WBD’s earnings have been disappointing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>WBD 的盈利令人失望</h2>
</div><p>The Warner Bros. Discovery’s stock has dropped because of the company’s slow revenue growth. Its second-quarter revenue dropped by 5% in the second quarter to $9.7 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Warner Bros. Discovery 的股价下跌是因为公司的收入增长缓慢。其第二季度收入在第二季度下降了 5%，至 97 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>This revenue decline was spread across the studios and networks segments. Studios, which created popular theatrical releases like Godzilla x Kong and Dune dropped by 4% to $2.45 billion. TV revenue also retreated by 27% because of low licensing fees.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一收入下降分布在制片厂和网络部门。制片厂，制作了诸如《哥斯拉大战金刚》和《沙丘》等热门院线发行影片，下降了 4%，至 24.5 亿美元。电视收入也因许可费低而下降了 27%。</p>
</div><p>The studio segment’s weakness is notable because it is one of its crown jewels. It also has a big market share in an industry whose other large players are Disney and Paramount.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>制片厂部门的疲软表现尤为引人注目，因为它是其摇钱树之一。它在一个其他大玩家为迪士尼和派拉蒙的行业中拥有很大的市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, revenue in the network business continued to fall, reaching $5.2 billion in the last quarter. This decline was mostly because of weak advertising and distribution divisions. Most importantly, the company made a big write-down of its networks division, which explains why it reported a big loss of $10.1 billion during the quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，网络业务的收入继续下滑，上季度达到 52 亿美元。这一下降主要是因为广告和分销部门疲软。最重要的是，公司对其网络部门进行了大规模减值，这解释了为什么在该季度报告了 101 亿美元的巨额亏损。</p>
</div><p>Most importantly, Warner’s direct-to-consumer business is not growing as expected. Total direct-to-consumer subscribers were 103.3 million, a 3.6 million increase from last quarter. Despite the increase, the division’s revenue dropped by 5% to $2.56 billion because of weak licensing fees.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最重要的是，Warner 的直接消费业务增长不如预期。总直接消费订户为 1.033 亿，比上一季度增加 360 万。尽管增加，但由于许可费低，该部门的收入下降了 5%，至 25.6 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Warner Bros. Discovery’s business, therefore, needs a good turnaround strategy, especially that the company lost rights to NBA. This turnaround, in my view, should include selling some of its assets and using the funds to pay its high debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Warner Bros. Discovery 的业务需要一个良好的扭转策略，尤其是公司失去了 NBA 的权利。在我看来，这种扭转应包括出售部分资产，并利用资金偿还高额债务。</p>
</div><p>The best time to sell some or all of its TV networks is now because they still have some value. In the next decade, however, their valuation will continue falling, as we have seen with Paramount. In fact, there is a risk that cable companies like Charter will drop some of its networks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在是出售部分或全部电视网络的最佳时机，因为它们仍然具有一定价值。然而，在未来十年，它们的估值将继续下降，就像我们在派拉蒙身上看到的那样。事实上，有风险，像 Charter 这样的有线电视公司将取消一些网络。</p>
</div><p>Its other challenge is that it faces substantial maturities in the coming years. It has over $3 billion worth of maturities through 2026, which will affect its content investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它面临的另一个挑战是未来几年将面临重大到期债务。到 2026 年，其价值超过 30 亿美元，这将影响其内容投资。</p>
</div><h2>Warner Bros. Discovery stock analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Warner Bros. Discovery 股票分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/Warner-Bros.-Discovery-stock-1024x568.png" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/Warner-Bros.-Discovery-stock-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p>The daily chart shows that the WBD share price has moved sideways in the past few months as investors wait for the next catalyst. It has formed a rectangle pattern whose lower and upper levels are at $6.92 and $8.90.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，WBD 股价在过去几个月内横盘走势，投资者在等待下一个催化剂。它形成了一个矩形图案，下限和上限分别为 6.92 美元和 8.90 美元。</p>
</div><p>The stock is also consolidating between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票还在 50 天和 200 天指数移动平均线之间盘整。</p>
</div><p>There are signs that it has formed a small bullish flag pattern. Therefore, the outlook for the stock is neutral, with the key points to watch being $8.90 and $6.92. A break below the support will point to more downside, while a move above $8.90 will lead to more gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有迹象表明它形成了一个小的看涨旗形图案。因此，该股的前景是中性的，关键点在于观察 8.90 美元和 6.92 美元。突破支撑将指向更多下跌，而突破 8.90 美元将导致更多涨幅。</p>
</div><p>The post Warner Bros stock a dirt cheap bargain or a value trap? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>文章来源：Invezz</p>
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华纳兄弟的股票是物美价廉的便宜货还是价值陷阱？