<p><strong>家得宝</strong>(Costco 0.85%) 和 <strong>开市客</strong>(Home Depot -0.78%) 的市值分别为 3890 亿美元和 4060 亿美元。因此，我相信许多投资者也是这两家巨大企业的顾客。这两家零售股票在过去几十年里一直回报股东，但显然有一家公司现在是更好的购买选择。</p>
<h2>家得宝是行业的金标准</h2>
<p>家得宝在 2024 财年的净销售额达到 2500 亿美元，是世界第三大零售商。它以在各种类别中销售优质商品以及提供一些最低价格而闻名，这就是为什么它主导了零售行业。</p>
<p>家得宝的规模帮助它从强大的规模优势中受益，这是其关键竞争优势。该企业的库存单位远少于其竞争对手。因此，在从供应商购买商品时，它具有巨大的谈判杠杆。这导致单位成本降低，节省的成本总是传递给购物者。</p>
<p>使家得宝脱颖而出的特点是其会员模式。消费者必须支付年费才能有权在公司的仓库购物。在最新的财季中，会员收入按照年化基础增长了 7.4%，达到了 15 亿美元。这为企业提供了高利润和可预测的收入流，同时也促进了客户忠诚度。这种组合难以超越。</p>
<p>家得宝有稳定的营收和利润增长历史。底线的稳定实际上帮助管理层支付一次性特别股息。今年一月，该企业每股支付了 15 美元。在此之前，2020 年 12 月支付了一次性 10 美元的股息。这是除了常规季度分红之外的额外支付。这样的资本分配政策有助于提高回报。</p>
<h2>开市客的暂时挫折</h2>
<p>在 2020 财年和 2021 财年，开市客实现了两位数的营收增长，因为在疫情最严重的时期需求强劲。但最近情况有所降温。较高的利率和通货膨胀压力使购物者不愿在昂贵的翻修项目上花费。</p>
<p>因此，营收受到了打击。同店销售在 2023 财年下降了 3.2%，预计在当前财年将下降 3% 到 4%。</p>
<p>但更好的日子可能就在眼前。首先，开市客受益于一些有利的行业助推力。美国房屋的中位年龄每年都在稳步上升，现在已经达到 40 岁。这个国家存在相当大的住房短缺，这也支持了对家庭翻修活动的需求。</p>
<p>此外，根据 <strong>Redfin</strong> 的数据，今天的房屋中位价格为 43.3 万美元。仅在过去五年中，这一数字上涨了约 45%。房主拥有的这种增值可以用来资助翻修项目。未来利率的下降前景也可能刺激公司的新的销售增长趋势。</p>
<p>截至目前，开市客的股价市盈率为 27.6。这绝不是便宜的价格，但比家得宝的 53.1 要合理得多。</p>
<p>家得宝令人印象深刻的规模优势，加上其可预测的收入流和稳定的财务业绩，使其成为这两家公司中更高质量的企业。但目前其股价的市盈率倍数过高。这意味着对这家仓储俱乐部运营商有着很高的期望，高估值给实现强劲投资回报带来了重大阻力。</p>
<p>如果我们展望未来五年，我认为开市客可能会为您的投资组合带来比家得宝更好的收益。</p>

家得宝

开市客

<p>开市客和家得宝是两家主要的零售股，其中开市客是全球第三大零售商，以其会员制模式和持续增长的营收而闻名。开市客最近的财季会员收入增长了 7.4%，而家得宝面临由经济压力导致的同店销售下降的挑战。然而，家得宝可能受益于有利的房地产趋势和潜在的利率降低。尽管开市客表现强劲，但其高市盈率表明与家得宝相比，在未来五年内可能无法提供最佳投资回报</p>

<p><strong>Costco</strong>(COST 0.85%) and <strong>Home Depot</strong>(HD -0.78%) carry market caps of $389 billion and $406 billion, respectively. Consequently, I'm sure many investors are also customers of these two massive businesses. Both retail stocks have rewarded shareholders over the past few decades, but one is obviously the better company to buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>家得宝</strong>(Costco 0.85%) 和 <strong>开市客</strong>(Home Depot -0.78%) 的市值分别为 3890 亿美元和 4060 亿美元。因此，我相信许多投资者也是这两家巨大企业的顾客。这两家零售股票在过去几十年里一直回报股东，但显然有一家公司现在是更好的购买选择。</p>
</div><h2>Costco is the gold standard in the industry</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>家得宝是行业的金标准</h2>
</div><p>With fiscal 2024 net sales of $250 billion, Costco is the third-biggest retailer in the world. It's known for selling quality merchandise in a broad range of categories at some of the lowest prices around, which is why it has come to dominate the retail sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝在 2024 财年的净销售额达到 2500 亿美元，是世界第三大零售商。它以在各种类别中销售优质商品以及提供一些最低价格而闻名，这就是为什么它主导了零售行业。</p>
</div><p>Costco's size helps it benefit from powerful scale advantages, which is its key competitive strength. The business carries far fewer stock-keeping units than its rivals. Therefore, it has tremendous negotiating leverage when purchasing goods from suppliers. This results in lower per-unit costs, savings that are always passed on to shoppers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝的规模帮助它从强大的规模优势中受益，这是其关键竞争优势。该企业的库存单位远少于其竞争对手。因此，在从供应商购买商品时，它具有巨大的谈判杠杆。这导致单位成本降低，节省的成本总是传递给购物者。</p>
</div><p>The trait that makes Costco stand out is its membership model. Consumers must pay an annual fee to have the right to shop at one of the company's warehouses. In the latest fiscal quarter, membership revenue increased 7.4% to $1.5 billion on a normalized basis year over year. This provides the business with a high margin and predictable revenue stream while also driving customer loyalty. That combination is hard to beat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使家得宝脱颖而出的特点是其会员模式。消费者必须支付年费才能有权在公司的仓库购物。在最新的财季中，会员收入按照年化基础增长了 7.4%，达到了 15 亿美元。这为企业提供了高利润和可预测的收入流，同时也促进了客户忠诚度。这种组合难以超越。</p>
</div><p>Costco has a history of steady revenue and profit growth. The consistency of the bottom line has actually helped management pay out one-time special dividends. In January, the business paid out $15 per share. Before that, a special $10 dividend was paid in December 2020. This is in addition to the regular quarterly payout. A favorable capital allocation policy like this helps to boost returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝有稳定的营收和利润增长历史。底线的稳定实际上帮助管理层支付一次性特别股息。今年一月，该企业每股支付了 15 美元。在此之前，2020 年 12 月支付了一次性 10 美元的股息。这是除了常规季度分红之外的额外支付。这样的资本分配政策有助于提高回报。</p>
</div><h2>Home Depot's temporary setback</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>开市客的暂时挫折</h2>
</div><p>Home Depot registered double-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021, as demand was strong during the worst days of the pandemic. But things have cooled down recently. Higher interest rates and inflationary pressures have discouraged shoppers from spending on costly renovation projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2020 财年和 2021 财年，开市客实现了两位数的营收增长，因为在疫情最严重的时期需求强劲。但最近情况有所降温。较高的利率和通货膨胀压力使购物者不愿在昂贵的翻修项目上花费。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the top line has taken a hit. Same-store sales decreased 3.2% in fiscal 2023 and are expected to drop between 3% and 4% in the current fiscal year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，营收受到了打击。同店销售在 2023 财年下降了 3.2%，预计在当前财年将下降 3% 到 4%。</p>
</div><p>But better days are likely on the horizon. For starters, Home Depot benefits from some favorable industry tailwinds. The median age of a home in the U.S. steadily rises with each passing year -- it's now at 40 years old. The fact that there's a sizable housing shortage in this country also supports the demand for home renovation activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但更好的日子可能就在眼前。首先，开市客受益于一些有利的行业助推力。美国房屋的中位年龄每年都在稳步上升，现在已经达到 40 岁。这个国家存在相当大的住房短缺，这也支持了对家庭翻修活动的需求。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, according to data from <strong>Redfin</strong>, the median price of a home today is $433,000. That's up about 45% just in the last five years. This rising equity that homeowners have could be tapped to fund renovation projects. The prospects of lower interest rates going forward could also spur a new trend of sales growth for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，根据 <strong>Redfin</strong> 的数据，今天的房屋中位价格为 43.3 万美元。仅在过去五年中，这一数字上涨了约 45%。房主拥有的这种增值可以用来资助翻修项目。未来利率的下降前景也可能刺激公司的新的销售增长趋势。</p>
</div><p>As of this writing, shares of Home Depot trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.6. That's not a bargain by any stretch, but it's much more reasonable than Costco's 53.1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，开市客的股价市盈率为 27.6。这绝不是便宜的价格，但比家得宝的 53.1 要合理得多。</p>
</div><p>Costco's impressive scale advantage, coupled with its recurring revenue stream and steady financial results, make it the higher-quality business of these two. But its shares go for a nosebleed P/E multiple right now. This implies lofty expectations for the warehouse club operator, with the high valuation creating a major headwind to achieving strong investment returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝令人印象深刻的规模优势，加上其可预测的收入流和稳定的财务业绩，使其成为这两家公司中更高质量的企业。但目前其股价的市盈率倍数过高。这意味着对这家仓储俱乐部运营商有着很高的期望，高估值给实现强劲投资回报带来了重大阻力。</p>
</div><p>If we look at things over the next five years, I'd argue that Home Depot is likely to produce a better gain for your portfolio than Costco.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我们展望未来五年，我认为开市客可能会为您的投资组合带来比家得宝更好的收益。</p>
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当前最值得购买的股票：Costco Wholesale 与 Home Depot