<p>如果你相信埃隆·马斯克，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.91%) 不再是一家汽车制造商，而是一家人工智能（AI）和机器人公司。这使得评估特斯拉股票的潜力和价值变得更加困难，因为特斯拉目前在人工智能或机器人领域的收入非常有限。</p>
<p>特斯拉未来走向何方，投资者是否应该购买该股？让我们逐个分析。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTEwNDUvMHgwLW1vZGVsM19yaGRfMDMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="490" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTEwNDUvMHgwLW1vZGVsM19yaGRfMDMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>电动汽车业务已不同往日</h2>
<p>特斯拉今天的业务主要是销售电动汽车（EVs），并附带能源存储业务。在本文中，我将把这两个业务合并起来，视为一个业务。</p>
<p>如果你排除 2024 年第四季度记录的 59 亿美元递延税款资产收益，你会发现自由现金流和净收入都在下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92748cf9a23951ea3681479f681ed313.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92748cf9a23951ea3681479f681ed313.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 净收入（TTM）数据来源：YCharts；TTM = 过去 12 个月。</p>
<p>净收入下降的原因非常简单。特斯拉在疫情期间能够提高价格，从而提高利润率，但在过去两年不得不降价。这将导致利润率降低。</p>
<p>利润率正在下降，你可以看到它们现在仅略优于 <strong>通用汽车</strong>(GM 1.56%) 和 <strong>福特</strong>(F 1.15%)，尽管这家电动汽车制造商的股价按照市销率（P/S）计算要高出 30 倍。请记住：特斯拉的交付量和收入也在下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91231c925d4cf3b5ebfd15156e1f5142.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="575" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91231c925d4cf3b5ebfd15156e1f5142.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 营运利润率（TTM）；数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>因此，市场必定对人工智能和机器人赋予了很高的价值。</p>
<h2>人工智能和特斯拉的 FSD 战略</h2>
<p>我们知道特斯拉自 2014 年开始销售 Autopilot，自 2020 年开始销售全自动驾驶（FSD）功能，即需要人类监督的自动驾驶。我们不清楚的是采用率或该选项的利润率。目前，它被纳入汽车业务。</p>
<p>第三方估计采用率为 2%，尽管埃隆·马斯克表示采用率&#34;要高得多&#34;，但没有详细说明。如果我们假设采用率为 5%，每年销售 200 万辆车，按照当前每月 99 美元的价格，这可能每年增加 1.2 亿美元的额外收入。这很不错，但对于市值 8320 亿美元的公司来说并没有太大影响。</p>
<p>愿景是 FSD 最终将导致一支自动驾驶车队。这些车将由特斯拉购买者拥有，他们将向特斯拉支付 FSD 费用，并在将车辆作为机器人出租车提供时赚取收入。</p>
<p>现实是，FSD 目前无法在全球任何地方合法独立驾驶车辆，而且在特斯拉获得运营任何类型自动驾驶车队的许可之前，可能还需要数年时间。即使发生这种情况，这种商业模式的经济效益仍不明确。</p>
<p>市场显然喜欢机器人出租车的想法，但我不清楚在 FSD 今天必须受监督且没有通往完全自主的路径的情况下，如何实现现金流。</p>
<h2>机器人业务</h2>
<p>机器人是业务中另一个极不明确的部分。有一款人形机器人正在开发中，但这样的产品市场在哪里？</p>
<p>同样，投资者被要求赋予一款尚不存在的产品很高的价值，市场适用性不明。</p>
<h2>今天不宜购买特斯拉股票</h2>
<p>特斯拉目前的市销率为 9 倍，市盈率为 73 倍。展望未来，该股市盈率为分析师对明年盈利的预测为 93 倍。</p>
<p>对于一家核心业务下滑且在人工智能和机器人领域有高风险新产品的公司来说，支付如此高的倍数是非常高的。</p>
<p>我认为风险不值得承担，这就是为什么我认为现在应该卖出该股票。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉股票在从汽车制造商转型为人工智能和机器人公司的过程中受到审视。电动汽车业务下滑，净收入和利润率因价格下调而下降。特斯拉全自动驾驶（FSD）功能的采用率较低，其自动驾驶车队的未来仍不确定。此外，机器人领域缺乏市场需求的明确性。目前，特斯拉的股价倍数较高，使其成为一项风险投资。结论是，目前特斯拉的股票应该卖出</p>

<p>If you believe Elon Musk, <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.91%) is not an automaker anymore, it's an artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics company. That makes it much harder to assess the potential and value of the stock because there's very little in AI or robotics revenue at Tesla today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你相信埃隆·马斯克，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.91%) 不再是一家汽车制造商，而是一家人工智能（AI）和机器人公司。这使得评估特斯拉股票的潜力和价值变得更加困难，因为特斯拉目前在人工智能或机器人领域的收入非常有限。</p>
</div><p>Where is Tesla going, and should investors buy the stock? Let's break it down into components.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉未来走向何方，投资者是否应该购买该股？让我们逐个分析。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTEwNDUvMHgwLW1vZGVsM19yaGRfMDMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F791045%2F0x0-model3_rhd_03.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>The EV business isn't what it once was</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>电动汽车业务已不同往日</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's business today is primarily selling electric vehicles (EVs) with an adjacent energy storage business. For the purpose of this article, I'm going to combine those two businesses and treat them as one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉今天的业务主要是销售电动汽车（EVs），并附带能源存储业务。在本文中，我将把这两个业务合并起来，视为一个业务。</p>
</div><p>You can see that free cash flow is in decline and so is net income if you pull out the $5.9 billion benefit from deferred tax assets recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你排除 2024 年第四季度记录的 59 亿美元递延税款资产收益，你会发现自由现金流和净收入都在下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92748cf9a23951ea3681479f681ed313.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92748cf9a23951ea3681479f681ed313.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA net income (TTM) data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 净收入（TTM）数据来源：YCharts；TTM = 过去 12 个月。</p>
</div><p>The reason net income is declining is pretty simple. Tesla was able to raise prices -- and, in turn, its margins -- during the pandemic when the entire industry was in short supply, but it has had to cut prices over the past two years. That will show up in lower margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>净收入下降的原因非常简单。特斯拉在疫情期间能够提高价格，从而提高利润率，但在过去两年不得不降价。这将导致利润率降低。</p>
</div><p>Margins are falling, and you can see below that they are now only slightly better than <strong>GM</strong>(GM 1.56%) and <strong>Ford</strong>(F 1.15%), despite the EV maker's stock trading for 30 times more on the basis of its price-to-sales ratio (P/S). And remember: Tesla's deliveries and revenue are falling, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利润率正在下降，你可以看到它们现在仅略优于 <strong>通用汽车</strong>(GM 1.56%) 和 <strong>福特</strong>(F 1.15%)，尽管这家电动汽车制造商的股价按照市销率（P/S）计算要高出 30 倍。请记住：特斯拉的交付量和收入也在下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91231c925d4cf3b5ebfd15156e1f5142.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91231c925d4cf3b5ebfd15156e1f5142.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA operating margin (TTM); data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 营运利润率（TTM）；数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>So the market must be putting a lot of value on AI and robotics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，市场必定对人工智能和机器人赋予了很高的价值。</p>
</div><h2>AI and Tesla's FSD strategy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能和特斯拉的 FSD 战略</h2>
</div><p>We know Tesla has been selling Autopilot since 2014 and its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature -- automated driving that requires human supervision -- since 2020. What we don't know is the adoption rate or anything about the option's margins. For now, it's folded into the auto business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们知道特斯拉自 2014 年开始销售 Autopilot，自 2020 年开始销售全自动驾驶（FSD）功能，即需要人类监督的自动驾驶。我们不清楚的是采用率或该选项的利润率。目前，它被纳入汽车业务。</p>
</div><p>Third-party estimates have the rate of adoption at 2%, although Elon Musk said it was &#34;much higher,&#34; without elaborating. If we assume the adoption rate is 5% on 2 million vehicles sold per year, it could add $120 million per year in incremental revenue at the current price of $99 per month. That's nice, but it doesn't move the needle much for an $832 billion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三方估计采用率为 2%，尽管埃隆·马斯克表示采用率&#34;要高得多&#34;，但没有详细说明。如果我们假设采用率为 5%，每年销售 200 万辆车，按照当前每月 99 美元的价格，这可能每年增加 1.2 亿美元的额外收入。这很不错，但对于市值 8320 亿美元的公司来说并没有太大影响。</p>
</div><p>The vision is for FSD to ultimately lead to a fleet of autonomous vehicles. They would be owned by Tesla buyers, who would then pay Tesla for FSD and earn money when they make their cars available as robotaxis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>愿景是 FSD 最终将导致一支自动驾驶车队。这些车将由特斯拉购买者拥有，他们将向特斯拉支付 FSD 费用，并在将车辆作为机器人出租车提供时赚取收入。</p>
</div><p>The reality is, FSD isn't able to legally drive a vehicle by itself anywhere in the world today, and it's likely to be years before Tesla gets a license to operate any kind of autonomous fleet. Even after that happens, the economics of this business model is unclear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现实是，FSD 目前无法在全球任何地方合法独立驾驶车辆，而且在特斯拉获得运营任何类型自动驾驶车队的许可之前，可能还需要数年时间。即使发生这种情况，这种商业模式的经济效益仍不明确。</p>
</div><p>The market clearly likes the robotaxi idea, but I don't see how there's a clear path to cash flow given its FSD must be supervised today and doesn't have a path to full autonomy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场显然喜欢机器人出租车的想法，但我不清楚在 FSD 今天必须受监督且没有通往完全自主的路径的情况下，如何实现现金流。</p>
</div><h2>The robotics business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>机器人业务</h2>
</div><p>Robots are the other piece of the business that's extremely unclear. There's a humanoid robot under development, but what is market for such a product?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>机器人是业务中另一个极不明确的部分。有一款人形机器人正在开发中，但这样的产品市场在哪里？</p>
</div><p>Again, investors are being asked to put a lot of value on a product that doesn't yet exist, with an unclear market fit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，投资者被要求赋予一款尚不存在的产品很高的价值，市场适用性不明。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's stock is not a buy today</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>今天不宜购买特斯拉股票</h2>
</div><p>Tesla is currently trading for 9 times sales and 73 times trailing earnings. Looking forward, the stock is trading for 93 times analyst estimates for next year's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉目前的市销率为 9 倍，市盈率为 73 倍。展望未来，该股市盈率为分析师对明年盈利的预测为 93 倍。</p>
</div><p>That's an incredibly high multiple to pay for a company with a declining core and very high-risk new products in AI and robotics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于一家核心业务下滑且在人工智能和机器人领域有高风险新产品的公司来说，支付如此高的倍数是非常高的。</p>
</div><p>I don't think the risk is worth taking, and that's why I think the stock is a sell today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为风险不值得承担，这就是为什么我认为现在应该卖出该股票。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

- 特斯拉的核心业务是电动车和能源存储，净收入和自由现金流下降。  
- 尽管市场对人工智能和机器人业务寄予厚望，但相关收入微薄。  
- 目前特斯拉股票估值过高，风险不值得投资。

特斯拉股票：是该买入、卖出还是持有？