<p><strong><em>这是今天晨报的要点，您可以</em></strong> <strong><em>注册</em></strong> <strong><em>每天早上在收件箱中收到以下内容：</em></strong></p>
<ul>
<li></li>
</ul>
<h2><strong><em>每日图表</em></strong></h2>
<h2><strong><em>我们正在关注的内容</em></strong></h2>
<h2><strong><em>我们正在阅读的内容</em></strong></h2>
<p><strong><em>经济数据发布和收益情况</em></strong></p>
<p>投资者对大型食品股的兴趣像我在上世纪 80 年代中期那样微弱。</p>
<p>请注意，在那个时期，我大约五岁。</p>
<p>美国银行的年轻、充满活力的食品分析师彼得·加尔博在雅虎财经的《开盘竞价》播客中表示：“从一般投资者的角度来看，我会说在包装食品领域一直相当安静。您典型的机构资金在这个领域更为沉默。”（视频上方；请在下方收听）。</p>
<p>正如加尔博向我解释的那样，投资者正在寻找在美联储连续降息之前增长更快的股票。想象一下，他们渴望在任何回落时购买英伟达（NVDA）股票，而不是在通用磨坊（GIS）回调时购买。</p>
<p>您可以在雅虎财经的一些数据中清楚地看到这一点。</p>
<p>英伟达的股价今年迄今上涨了惊人的 168%。通用磨坊仅上涨了 10%。百事可乐（PEP）和康尼格拉（CAG）的股价都上涨了约 2%。荷美尔（HRL）下跌了 4%。</p>
<p>标普 500 指数（^GSPC）今年上涨了 21%，道琼斯工业平均指数（^DJI）上涨了 13%，纳斯达克综合指数（^IXIC）上涨了 20%。</p>
<p>但是在我仔细阅读了与加尔博的深入交谈后，我认为还有一些其他基本原因使这些公司不受投资者青睐。</p>
<p>您的解释清单：</p>
<ol>
<li></li>
</ol>
<p>这些公司在一个不再奖励企业集团模式的投资世界中仍然太大。投资者希望专注于最高水平执行的策略。例如，康尼格拉是否需要销售冷冻食品，同时还推销 Slim Jim 和 Duke's 肉类零食？Spam 制造商荷美尔几年前是否应该从 Kraft Heinz（KHC）购买 Planters 坚果业务？
2.</p>
<p>这些公司希望变得更大，尽管投资者并未奖励这种做法！康尼格拉刚刚收购了 Fatty 肉类零食系列。该公司现在在肉类零食市场上占据主导地位，拥有 Slim Jim、Duke's 和 Fatty。加尔博告诉我，肉类零食是零食中的增长类别。但我质疑为什么一个公司必须拥有三个肉类零食品牌！
3.</p>
<p>这些公司在减少增长较慢的业务方面行动缓慢。通用磨坊最近仅以 20 亿美元出售了其北美酸奶业务。康贝尔汤正在寻找购买其 Rao's 业务时获得的 Noosa 酸奶业务的买家。从荷美尔最近的财报电话会议中我没有感受到他们打算出售 Planters 业务，迹象表明该交易可能并不如计划的那样顺利。
4.</p>
<p>消费者对大型食品公司的定价策略感到愤怒，并通过购买减少产品来表达他们的观点。您可以从百事可乐本周的销量中看到这一点。
5.</p>
<p>四年通货膨胀的累积效应继续给许多家庭带来压力。购买零食现在已经成为一种奢侈。
6.</p>
<p>由于经济原因，便利店的客流量在过去一年大幅下降，但购物也转移到了像 Costco（COST）这样的会员店。便利店渠道需要表现良好，许多食品公司才能做得好。
7.</p>
<p>Ozempic 对大型食品公司收益能力的长期威胁每天都在上升，因为这些药物的新用户不断进入市场。</p>
<p>额外原因：这些股票并未根据上述现实价值评估。它们仍然被视为防御性价值投资，因为这些公司销售食品。</p>
<p>我认为这种想法是错误的——我认为很难辩护荷美尔以将近 19 倍的前瞻性市盈率交易，这与标普 500 的前瞻性多倍数约为 21 倍相差不远。投资中的一个老规则是，15 倍的前瞻性市盈率是具有吸引力的（我警告这并不总是适用，每家公司都是独特的，所以不要将我的话当作圣经）。</p>
<p>然后，还有我认为正在影响该行业多重估值的生硬评论。</p>
<p>首先：这些公司已经成为本次选举季节的政治曳地球袋。如果副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在 11 月赢得总统大选，她发誓要解决大型食品公司的哄抬价格问题。</p>
<p>参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦一直在谈论缩水膨胀，并责备食品公司。</p>
<p>所有这些言论并没有激励投资者去在食品领域寻找潜力股。</p>
<p>我们还从消费品公司高管那里听到一些信息，这些信息表明 2025 年销售和收益的强劲反弹并不是一定的。</p>
<p>“我们看到消费者面临很大挑战，消费者正在做出很多决定。他们在优化他们的整体预算，因此他们可能会削减食品开支以支付订阅费，或者他们可能会削减食品开支以周末去看电影。实际上，当涉及食品时，他们在做出很多权衡。” 百事可乐董事长兼首席执行官拉蒙·拉瓜塔在上周财报发布后不久告诉我。</p>
<p>该公司削减了全年销售预期。</p>
<p>这与沃尔玛（WMT）首席执行官道格·麦克米伦上周在该公司阿肯色州本顿维尔总部告诉我的情况一致。</p>
<p>“收入较低的人群总是面临更大挑战。他们必须做出权衡决定，我认为自疫情爆发以来的通货膨胀周期以来，这种压力更为严重。因此，家庭收入低于 10 万美元的人感受到的压力方式可能与几年前不同，您可以从他们的行为中看出。我们正在努力降低价格……一些更顽固的通货膨胀出现在制备食品、干货类、可消耗类别，如纸制品、清洁用品。” 麦克米伦说。</p>
<p>我希望大型食品公司能够重新获得投资者的兴趣。毕竟，这些公司确实在养活地球。然而，这将是一项艰巨的任务。</p>
<p>每周三次，我在 <strong>Opening Bid</strong> 上与商界和市场上最大的名人进行充满洞察力的对话。在我们的 <strong>视频中心</strong> 找到更多的剧集。在您 <strong>偏爱的流媒体服务</strong> 上观看。或在 <strong>Apple Podcasts</strong>，<strong>Spotify</strong>，或您喜爱的播客平台上收听并订阅。</p>
<p><em>Brian Sozzi</em> 是雅虎财经的执行编辑。关注 Sozzi 的 X_ <em>@BrianSozzi</em> 和_ <em>LinkedIn</em> 。有关交易、并购、激进情况或其他任何事情的建议？发送电子邮件至 brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com。</p>
<p><strong>点击这里查看所有最新的零售股票新闻和事件，以更好地指导您的投资策略</strong></p>

通用磨坊

康尼格拉

<p>投资者对大型食品股的兴趣正在减弱，分析师指出投资者正在转向像英伟达这样增长更快的股票。通用磨坊和康尼格拉等公司由于规模较大且缓慢适应市场需求而面临困境。消费者对定价策略的不满和通货膨胀压力导致购买量减少。此外，政治审查和对长期收益的担忧，特别是随着减肥药物的兴起，正在影响估值。总体而言，该行业被视为防御性，但这种看法可能与当前市场现实不符</p>

<p><strong><em>This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can</em></strong> <strong><em>sign up</em></strong> <strong><em>to receive in your inbox every morning along with:</em></strong></p>
<ul>
<li></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>这是今天晨报的要点，您可以</em></strong> <strong><em>注册</em></strong> <strong><em>每天早上在收件箱中收到以下内容：</em></strong></p>
<ul>
<li></li>
</ul>
</div><h2><strong><em>The chart of the day</em></strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong><em>每日图表</em></strong></h2>
</div><h2><strong><em>What we're watching</em></strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong><em>我们正在关注的内容</em></strong></h2>
</div><h2><strong><em>What we're reading</em></strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong><em>我们正在阅读的内容</em></strong></h2>
</div><p><strong><em>Economic data releases and earnings</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>经济数据发布和收益情况</em></strong></p>
</div><p>The investor appetite for big food stocks is as thin as I was back in the mid-1980s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对大型食品股的兴趣像我在上世纪 80 年代中期那样微弱。</p>
</div><p>Note in that time period I was about five years old.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请注意，在那个时期，我大约五岁。</p>
</div><p>&#34;From a generalist investor standpoint, I would say it has been pretty quiet [around packaged food names]. Your typical kind of institutional money has been quieter in the space,&#34; youthful, energetic packaged food analyst at Bank of America Peter Galbo said on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast (video above; listen below).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行的年轻、充满活力的食品分析师彼得·加尔博在雅虎财经的《开盘竞价》播客中表示：“从一般投资者的角度来看，我会说在包装食品领域一直相当安静。您典型的机构资金在这个领域更为沉默。”（视频上方；请在下方收听）。</p>
</div><p>The way Galbo explained it to me, investors are in search of faster-growth stocks ahead of a prolonged stretch of Fed rate cuts. Think of the desire to devour Nvidia (NVDA) shares on any dip, as opposed to eating up General Mills (GIS) on a pullback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如加尔博向我解释的那样，投资者正在寻找在美联储连续降息之前增长更快的股票。想象一下，他们渴望在任何回落时购买英伟达（NVDA）股票，而不是在通用磨坊（GIS）回调时购买。</p>
</div><p>You can easily see that in some Yahoo Finance-sourced data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您可以在雅虎财经的一些数据中清楚地看到这一点。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's stock is up a sizzling 168% year to date. General Mills is only up 10%. PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra Brands (CAG) are both up roughly 2%. Hormel (HRL) is down 4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的股价今年迄今上涨了惊人的 168%。通用磨坊仅上涨了 10%。百事可乐（PEP）和康尼格拉（CAG）的股价都上涨了约 2%。荷美尔（HRL）下跌了 4%。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) is up 21% this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) 13%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标普 500 指数（^GSPC）今年上涨了 21%，道琼斯工业平均指数（^DJI）上涨了 13%，纳斯达克综合指数（^IXIC）上涨了 20%。</p>
</div><p>But as I digested (pun intended) my in-depth chat with Galbo, I think there are a few other fundamental reasons that are keeping these companies out of investor shopping baskets (pun also intended).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是在我仔细阅读了与加尔博的深入交谈后，我认为还有一些其他基本原因使这些公司不受投资者青睐。</p>
</div><p>Your shopping list of explanations:</p>
<ol>
<li></li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您的解释清单：</p>
<ol>
<li></li>
</ol>
</div><p>The companies are still too big inside an investing world that's no longer rewarding the conglomerate model. Investors want focused strategies executing at the highest level. For instance, does Conagra Brands need to be selling frozen food and also hawking Slim Jim and Duke's meat snacks? Should Spam maker Hormel have purchased the Planters nut business from Kraft Heinz (KHC) a few years ago?
2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些公司在一个不再奖励企业集团模式的投资世界中仍然太大。投资者希望专注于最高水平执行的策略。例如，康尼格拉是否需要销售冷冻食品，同时还推销 Slim Jim 和 Duke's 肉类零食？Spam 制造商荷美尔几年前是否应该从 Kraft Heinz（KHC）购买 Planters 坚果业务？
2.</p>
</div><p>The companies want to get even bigger despite investors not rewarding the play! Conagra Brands just purchased the Fatty meat snacks line. The company now has the meat snacks market cornered with Slim Jim, Duke's, and Fatty. Galbo tells me meat snacks are a growth category in snacking. Fair, but I question why one must own three meat snack brands!
3.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些公司希望变得更大，尽管投资者并未奖励这种做法！康尼格拉刚刚收购了 Fatty 肉类零食系列。该公司现在在肉类零食市场上占据主导地位，拥有 Slim Jim、Duke's 和 Fatty。加尔博告诉我，肉类零食是零食中的增长类别。但我质疑为什么一个公司必须拥有三个肉类零食品牌！
3.</p>
</div><p>The companies are slow to slim down their slower-growth businesses. Only recently did General Mills sell off its North American yogurt business for $2 billion. Campbell Soup is hunting for a buyer for the Noosa yogurt business it got with its Rao's business. I didn't get the sense from Hormel's latest earnings call it's going to sell the Planters business amid signs the deal may not be working out as planned.
4.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些公司在减少增长较慢的业务方面行动缓慢。通用磨坊最近仅以 20 亿美元出售了其北美酸奶业务。康贝尔汤正在寻找购买其 Rao's 业务时获得的 Noosa 酸奶业务的买家。从荷美尔最近的财报电话会议中我没有感受到他们打算出售 Planters 业务，迹象表明该交易可能并不如计划的那样顺利。
4.</p>
</div><p>Consumers are pissed off at Big Food for its pricing strategies and are voicing their views by purchasing less. You saw that in PepsiCo's volumes this week.
5.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者对大型食品公司的定价策略感到愤怒，并通过购买减少产品来表达他们的观点。您可以从百事可乐本周的销量中看到这一点。
5.</p>
</div><p>The cumulative effects of four years of inflation continue to pressure so many households. Buying snacks is now a luxury.
6.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四年通货膨胀的累积效应继续给许多家庭带来压力。购买零食现在已经成为一种奢侈。
6.</p>
</div><p>Traffic at convenience store stores has really trailed off the past year for economic reasons, but shopping has also shifted to club stores such as Costco (COST). Convenience store channels need to be doing well for a lot of food players to do well.
7.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于经济原因，便利店的客流量在过去一年大幅下降，但购物也转移到了像 Costco（COST）这样的会员店。便利店渠道需要表现良好，许多食品公司才能做得好。
7.</p>
</div><p>The Ozempic threat on the long-term health of Big Food earnings power is rising every single day as new users of these drugs enter the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ozempic 对大型食品公司收益能力的长期威胁每天都在上升，因为这些药物的新用户不断进入市场。</p>
</div><p>Bonus reason: The stocks aren't valued for the realities listed above. They are still being seen as defensive value plays since the companies sell food.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>额外原因：这些股票并未根据上述现实价值评估。它们仍然被视为防御性价值投资，因为这些公司销售食品。</p>
</div><p>That's the wrong way to think about it, I believe — it's hard to defend Hormel trading at almost 19 times forward earnings, which isn't too far removed from the S&amp;P 500's forward multiple around 21 times. An old rule of thumb in investing is that a 15 times forward P/E multiple is on the attractive side (I caution this is not always the case and each company is unique, so don't use my line as gospel).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为这种想法是错误的——我认为很难辩护荷美尔以将近 19 倍的前瞻性市盈率交易，这与标普 500 的前瞻性多倍数约为 21 倍相差不远。投资中的一个老规则是，15 倍的前瞻性市盈率是具有吸引力的（我警告这并不总是适用，每家公司都是独特的，所以不要将我的话当作圣经）。</p>
</div><p>Then, there is raw commentary that I would argue is weighing on the sector's multiples.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后，还有我认为正在影响该行业多重估值的生硬评论。</p>
</div><p>First up: These companies have become political punching bags this election season. Vice President Kamala Harris has vowed to tackle price gouging by Big Food if she wins the White House in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先：这些公司已经成为本次选举季节的政治曳地球袋。如果副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在 11 月赢得总统大选，她发誓要解决大型食品公司的哄抬价格问题。</p>
</div><p>Senator Elizabeth Warren has been making the rounds talking about shrinkflation and taking food companies to task for it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦一直在谈论缩水膨胀，并责备食品公司。</p>
</div><p>All of this rhetoric doesn't exactly embolden investors to go search for diamonds in the rough in the food space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些言论并没有激励投资者去在食品领域寻找潜力股。</p>
</div><p>There is also what we are hearing from consumer company executives, which suggests a strong rebound in sales and earnings isn't guaranteed in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们还从消费品公司高管那里听到一些信息，这些信息表明 2025 年销售和收益的强劲反弹并不是一定的。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We see that [the] consumer is very challenged, and that the consumer is making a lot of decisions. They're optimizing their full budget, so they might be cutting on food to pay for their subscriptions, or they might be cutting on food to go to see movies on the weekend. Really, there is a lot of trade-offs they're making when it comes to food.&#34; PepsiCo chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta told me this past week moments after earnings hit the wires.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们看到消费者面临很大挑战，消费者正在做出很多决定。他们在优化他们的整体预算，因此他们可能会削减食品开支以支付订阅费，或者他们可能会削减食品开支以周末去看电影。实际上，当涉及食品时，他们在做出很多权衡。” 百事可乐董事长兼首席执行官拉蒙·拉瓜塔在上周财报发布后不久告诉我。</p>
</div><p>The company trimmed its full-year sales outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司削减了全年销售预期。</p>
</div><p>This aligns with what Walmart (WMT) CEO Doug McMillon told me last week at the retailer's Bentonville, Ark., HQ.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这与沃尔玛（WMT）首席执行官道格·麦克米伦上周在该公司阿肯色州本顿维尔总部告诉我的情况一致。</p>
</div><p>&#34;People at lower income levels are always more challenged. They have to make trade-off decisions, and that's been, I think, more acute since this inflationary cycle on the heels of the pandemic. So, a household income below $100,000 feels pressure in a way that they might not have a few years ago, and you can see that in their behavior. And we are trying to get prices down ... some of the more stubborn inflation has been in the prepared foods, dry grocery type, consumable categories, like paper goods, cleaning supplies,&#34; McMillon said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“收入较低的人群总是面临更大挑战。他们必须做出权衡决定，我认为自疫情爆发以来的通货膨胀周期以来，这种压力更为严重。因此，家庭收入低于 10 万美元的人感受到的压力方式可能与几年前不同，您可以从他们的行为中看出。我们正在努力降低价格……一些更顽固的通货膨胀出现在制备食品、干货类、可消耗类别，如纸制品、清洁用品。” 麦克米伦说。</p>
</div><p>I wish Big Food well in regaining the hunger of investors. After all, these companies do feed the planet. It will be tough, however.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我希望大型食品公司能够重新获得投资者的兴趣。毕竟，这些公司确实在养活地球。然而，这将是一项艰巨的任务。</p>
</div><p><strong>Three times each week, I field insight-filled conversations with the biggest names in business and markets on</strong> <strong>Opening Bid</strong> <strong>. Find more episodes on our</strong> <strong>video hub</strong> <strong>. Watch on your</strong> <strong>preferred streaming service</strong> <strong>. Or listen and subscribe on</strong> <strong>Apple Podcasts</strong> <strong>,</strong> <strong>Spotify</strong> <strong>, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每周三次，我在 <strong>Opening Bid</strong> 上与商界和市场上最大的名人进行充满洞察力的对话。在我们的 <strong>视频中心</strong> 找到更多的剧集。在您 <strong>偏爱的流媒体服务</strong> 上观看。或在 <strong>Apple Podcasts</strong>，<strong>Spotify</strong>，或您喜爱的播客平台上收听并订阅。</p>
</div><p><em>Brian Sozzi</em> <em>is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X</em> <em>@BrianSozzi</em> <em>and on</em> <em>LinkedIn</em> <em>. Tips on deals, mergers, activist situations, or anything else? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Brian Sozzi</em> 是雅虎财经的执行编辑。关注 Sozzi 的 X_ <em>@BrianSozzi</em> 和_ <em>LinkedIn</em> 。有关交易、并购、激进情况或其他任何事情的建议？发送电子邮件至 brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com。</p>
</div><p><strong>Click here for all of the latest retail stock news and events to better inform your investing strategy</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>点击这里查看所有最新的零售股票新闻和事件，以更好地指导您的投资策略</strong></p>
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The new reality for big food stocks: Shrinkflation, upset shoppers, and excessive meat sticks

- 投资者对大型食品股的兴趣减弱，寻求更快增长的股票。  
- 尽管一些公司如 Conagra Brands 扩张，但市场对其回报不满。  
- 消费者因通货膨胀和价格策略减少购买，影响食品行业表现。

大食品股面临的新现实：缩减通胀、不满的消费者以及过多的肉棒