<p><strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 0.64%) 的股东在过去五年经历了许多波折。股价在疫情高峰期飙升至天际，但在 2022 年人们恢复线下购物习惯时暴跌了高达 87%。</p>
<p>尽管此后经历了相当大的复苏，但仍低于 2021 年的高点不到 50%。投资者面临的问题是，它能否在未来五年击败市场，或者业务状况是否可能扰乱其复苏。</p>
<h2>Shopify 公司现状</h2>
<p>Shopify 最初是一个商家解决方案。在高度竞争的电子商务平台环境中脱颖而出，通过提供高度可定制的无代码网站。由于网站速度慢可能导致销售下降，Shopify 还强调快速交易。</p>
<p>尽管如此，Shopify 通过提供辅助服务扩大了其竞争优势，可以使其成为满足所有电子商务需求的一站式购物平台。因此，支付处理、社交媒体管理和筹集资金等多样化服务都可以通过 Shopify 处理。</p>
<p>Shopify 还尝试通过增加履约和物流业务来扩大业务。然而，提供此类服务的高成本（以及可能的低利润率）促使 Shopify 出售其物流部门。出售该业务使 Shopify 重返盈利，这对公司未来五年可能是个好兆头。</p>
<p>Grand View Research 预测到 2030 年电子商务行业的复合年增长率为 19%。即使无法通过提供物流吸引客户，这对 Shopify 应该是个好消息。</p>
<h2>Shopify 的财务状况和股票</h2>
<p>至于财务状况，了解 Shopify 未来走向的一种方法是查看过去几年的营收水平。投资者可能会看到营收增长明显放缓。</p>
<p>到 2019 年，营收增长率已经放缓，跌破了 50%。然而，疫情引发了对在线购物的意外需求，导致 2020 年和 2021 年营收大幅增加。此后，营收增长急剧放缓。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>营收增长率</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>57%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：来自 2023 年、2021 年和 2019 年的 Shopify 年度报告。</p>
<p>2023 年的价格上涨可能掩盖了这一效应。不过，客户可以通过转向更便宜的年度计划来缓解这一影响。</p>
<p>投资者还应记住，Shopify 上半年实现了 39 亿美元的营收，其中将近 73% 来自商家解决方案而非网站本身，这意味着价格上涨可能对增长影响不大。</p>
<p>此外，由于物流业务的出售，Shopify 看起来已经重返盈利。尽管公司在 2024 年上半年亏损了 1.11 亿美元，但其中包括第二季度的 1.7 亿美元净收入。这增加了公司在 2024 年盈利的可能性，这是一个令人期待的改善，可能有助于激发 Shopify 股票的复苏。</p>
<p>此外，它的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 75，市销率（P/S）为 14。虽然这些比率听起来很高，但市销率远低于疫情高峰期的水平，这应该减少与其估值相关的担忧。</p>
<p>市销率也反映了对未来的期望，分析师对未来五年的盈利增长预测平均为 47%。尽管这样的预测是 “过早” 的预测，在更多数据可用时可能会发生变化，但它们表明利润在未来几年可能会大幅增长。</p>
<h2>五年后的 Shopify</h2>
<p>最终，Shopify 在未来五年更有可能比市场增长更快。</p>
<p>诚然，营收增长放缓是一个问题，而 47% 的年度利润增长预测可能过于乐观。</p>
<p>然而，即使营收增长稳定在 20% 的年度范围内，也足以激发 Shopify 的显著盈利增长，现在 Shopify 再次盈利。考虑到预测的到 2030 年电子商务行业的 19% 复合年增长率，Shopify 处于从行业持续助推中受益的有利位置。</p>

SHOP

<p>Shopify（SHOP）在过去五年中股价波动显著，在疫情期间达到峰值，然后在 2022 年失去了 87% 的价值。尽管最近有所复苏，但仍低于 2021 年的最高点。该公司在出售物流部门后将重点转向盈利能力，并预计将受益于预计到 2030 年电子商务行业的 19% 复合年增长率。分析师预测未来五年每年利润增长率为 47%，尽管对于收入增长放缓的担忧仍然存在。总体而言，Shopify 在未来几年可能会表现优于市场</p>

<p><strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 0.64%) shareholders have experienced an eventful five years. The stock surged into the stratosphere during the pandemic's height, only to lose up to 87% of its value when people resumed their offline shopping habits in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 0.64%) 的股东在过去五年经历了许多波折。股价在疫情高峰期飙升至天际，但在 2022 年人们恢复线下购物习惯时暴跌了高达 87%。</p>
</div><p>Although it has experienced a considerable resurgence since then, it still sells for less than 50% of its 2021 high. The question for investors is whether it can beat the market over the next five years, or whether business conditions are likely to derail its recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管此后经历了相当大的复苏，但仍低于 2021 年的高点不到 50%。投资者面临的问题是，它能否在未来五年击败市场，或者业务状况是否可能扰乱其复苏。</p>
</div><h2>Where Shopify stands as a company</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Shopify 公司现状</h2>
</div><p>Shopify began as a merchant solution. It stood out in the highly competitive e-commerce platform environment by offering highly customizable, no-code websites. Because slow website speeds can lose sales, Shopify also emphasized rapid transactions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shopify 最初是一个商家解决方案。在高度竞争的电子商务平台环境中脱颖而出，通过提供高度可定制的无代码网站。由于网站速度慢可能导致销售下降，Shopify 还强调快速交易。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, Shopify has expanded its competitive advantage by offering ancillary services that can make it a one-stop shop for all e-commerce needs. Hence, services as diverse as payment handling, social media management, and raising capital can be handled through Shopify.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，Shopify 通过提供辅助服务扩大了其竞争优势，可以使其成为满足所有电子商务需求的一站式购物平台。因此，支付处理、社交媒体管理和筹集资金等多样化服务都可以通过 Shopify 处理。</p>
</div><p>Shopify also tried to build on this by adding a fulfillment and shipping business. However, the high costs (and likely low margins) of offering such services prompted Shopify to sell its logistics arm. Selling that business has allowed Shopify to return to profitability, which could bode well for the company over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shopify 还尝试通过增加履约和物流业务来扩大业务。然而，提供此类服务的高成本（以及可能的低利润率）促使 Shopify 出售其物流部门。出售该业务使 Shopify 重返盈利，这对公司未来五年可能是个好兆头。</p>
</div><p>Grand View Research forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the e-commerce industry of 19% through 2030. This should mean good things for Shopify, even if it cannot attract customers through offering logistics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Grand View Research 预测到 2030 年电子商务行业的复合年增长率为 19%。即使无法通过提供物流吸引客户，这对 Shopify 应该是个好消息。</p>
</div><h2>Shopify's finances and stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Shopify 的财务状况和股票</h2>
</div><p>As for the financials, one way to gauge where Shopify is going is to look at the revenue levels of the last few years. Investors will probably see a marked deceleration in revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于财务状况，了解 Shopify 未来走向的一种方法是查看过去几年的营收水平。投资者可能会看到营收增长明显放缓。</p>
</div><p>Revenue growth levels had slowed by 2019, when they fell below 50%. Nonetheless, the pandemic created unexpected demand for online shopping, leading to massive revenue increases in 2020 and 2021. Since then, revenue growth has slowed dramatically.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>Revenue Growth Rate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>57%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2019 年，营收增长率已经放缓，跌破了 50%。然而，疫情引发了对在线购物的意外需求，导致 2020 年和 2021 年营收大幅增加。此后，营收增长急剧放缓。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>营收增长率</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>57%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Shopify annual reports from 2023, 2021, and 2019.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：来自 2023 年、2021 年和 2019 年的 Shopify 年度报告。</p>
</div><p>Price increases in 2023 might have obscured that effect. Still, customers can mitigate that effect by switching to cheaper yearly plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年的价格上涨可能掩盖了这一效应。不过，客户可以通过转向更便宜的年度计划来缓解这一影响。</p>
</div><p>Investors should also remember that Shopify earned $3.9 billion in revenue in the first half of the year. Almost 73% of that came from its merchant solutions rather than the sites themselves, meaning the price increases may have had little effect on growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者还应记住，Shopify 上半年实现了 39 亿美元的营收，其中将近 73% 来自商家解决方案而非网站本身，这意味着价格上涨可能对增长影响不大。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, thanks to the sale of the logistics business, Shopify looks to have returned to profitability. Although the company lost $111 million in the first half of 2024, that included a $170 million net income in Q2. This increases the likelihood that it will be profitable for 2024, a hoped-for improvement that likely helped spark the recovery in Shopify stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，由于物流业务的出售，Shopify 看起来已经重返盈利。尽管公司在 2024 年上半年亏损了 1.11 亿美元，但其中包括第二季度的 1.7 亿美元净收入。这增加了公司在 2024 年盈利的可能性，这是一个令人期待的改善，可能有助于激发 Shopify 股票的复苏。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, it sells at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 75 and a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 14. While those may sound high, the P/S ratio is far below levels during the pandemic's height, which should reduce concerns related to its valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，它的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 75，市销率（P/S）为 14。虽然这些比率听起来很高，但市销率远低于疫情高峰期的水平，这应该减少与其估值相关的担忧。</p>
</div><p>The P/S ratio also reflects hopes for the future, and analysts' five-year earnings growth prediction calls for 47% annual profit growth on average. Although such forecasts are &#34;way too early&#34; predictions that will likely change when more data becomes available, they indicate that profits can grow dramatically in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市销率也反映了对未来的期望，分析师对未来五年的盈利增长预测平均为 47%。尽管这样的预测是 “过早” 的预测，在更多数据可用时可能会发生变化，但它们表明利润在未来几年可能会大幅增长。</p>
</div><h2>Shopify in five years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>五年后的 Shopify</h2>
</div><p>Ultimately, Shopify is more likely than not to grow faster than the market over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，Shopify 在未来五年更有可能比市场增长更快。</p>
</div><p>Admittedly, the slowing revenue growth is a concern, and the 47% annual profit growth predictions could prove too optimistic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诚然，营收增长放缓是一个问题，而 47% 的年度利润增长预测可能过于乐观。</p>
</div><p>However, even if revenue growth settles in the 20% annual range, it should be sufficient to spark significant earnings growth now that Shopify is again profitable. Considering the predicted 19% CAGR for e-commerce through 2030, Shopify is well-positioned to benefit from the industry's continued tailwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，即使营收增长稳定在 20% 的年度范围内，也足以激发 Shopify 的显著盈利增长，现在 Shopify 再次盈利。考虑到预测的到 2030 年电子商务行业的 19% 复合年增长率，Shopify 处于从行业持续助推中受益的有利位置。</p>
</div>

五年后 Shopify 的股价会如何表现？