<p>全球最大加密货币 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 2.56%）的价格今年上涨了近 48%，几乎是同样在牛市的更广泛基准 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 表现的两倍。比特币目前交易价格约为 62,700 美元（截至 10 月 13 日），低于今年早些时候达到的 73,000 美元的历史最高点。比特币会在 2025 年创下新高吗？让我们来调查一下。</p>
<h2>明年的环境将会如何？</h2>
<p>比特币和所有加密货币一般来说都是极其波动的资产。市场仍然有很多需要了解的关于这个只有大约 15 年历史的新资产类别。然而，投资者或多或少将比特币和其他加密货币视为科技股和更具风险的资产。这些资产在降息环境中往往表现更好，因为像国债这样的安全资产收益不高，使得投资者更有可能追求回报。另一方面，在高息环境中，风险资产表现不佳。然而，比特币在升息周期中表现比预期要好得多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2aa853c5a846625048f8df9915ccf258.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2aa853c5a846625048f8df9915ccf258.png"/></p>
<p>由 YCharts 提供的比特币价格数据。</p>
<p>在美联储积极加息期间，比特币表现不佳，但一旦事情稳定下来，表现就好转了。由于比特币比市场更具波动性，其中一些原因很可能是由于市场对美联储预期的宽松。然而，我也认为一些超额表现与投资者日益相信比特币及其有限供应可以作为对抗通胀和一种 “数字黄金” 的对冲有关。现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETFs）的推出也扩大了市场对这种代币的曝光。</p>
<p>展望明年，比特币和加密货币行业的前景看起来要好得多。这主要是因为美联储在 9 月开始降低联邦基金利率，市场预计这是一个降息周期的开始。根据 <strong>芝加哥商品交易所集团</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具，该工具查看联邦基金利率期货定价，交易员预计美联储将把联邦基金利率从目前的 4.75% 至 5% 的区间降至 2025 年底的 3.25% 至 3.50% 的目标区间。较低的利率通常导致美元走弱。历史告诉我们，当美元走弱时，比特币表现良好。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6c8a06eff869e482ecbf08c9d2fc9d56.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6c8a06eff869e482ecbf08c9d2fc9d56.png"/></p>
<p>由 YCharts 提供的比特币价格数据。</p>
<h2>是否会创下新高？</h2>
<p>投资者应该注意，过去的表现并不代表未来的成功。仅仅因为比特币在美元走弱时表现良好，并不意味着它总是会表现良好。此外，尽管较低的利率通常导致美元走弱，但其他因素可能影响美元，比如油价。</p>
<p>话虽如此，我相信比特币明年有望创下新高，部分原因是由于美元走弱的可能性，以及监管形势对比特币变得更加清晰。比特币与社会和一般投资组合的融合程度越高，监管机构就越有可能澄清一些围绕比特币的灰色地带。</p>
<p>美国总统选举的最终赢家和新政府可能会影响监管环境，当然，无论谁获胜，我认为监管的明确性是必然的。比特币明年会达到什么价格？具体的价格目标我留给分析师，但我认为比特币是一个长期投资的好选择，有望在明年和未来几年创下新高。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特币今年已经上涨近 48%，交易价格约为 27,700 美元，略低于其 30,000 美元的历史最高价。加密货币的表现受利率影响；较低的利率通常有利于比特币，因为它们削弱了美元。随着市场预期美联储将降息，比特币有望在 2025 年达到新高。然而，过往表现并不代表未来成功的保证，监管政策的明晰度也将在比特币未来走势中发挥关键作用</p>

<p>The price of the world's largest cryptocurrency <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 2.56%) has risen nearly 48% this year, almost doubling the performance of the broader benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, which has also been on a bull run this year. Bitcoin currently trades for around $62,700 (as of Oct. 13), below all-time highs reached earlier this year of $73,000. Will Bitcoin hit a new high in 2025? Let's investigate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球最大加密货币 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 2.56%）的价格今年上涨了近 48%，几乎是同样在牛市的更广泛基准 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 表现的两倍。比特币目前交易价格约为 62,700 美元（截至 10 月 13 日），低于今年早些时候达到的 73,000 美元的历史最高点。比特币会在 2025 年创下新高吗？让我们来调查一下。</p>
</div><h2>What will the environment be like next year?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>明年的环境将会如何？</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies in general are extremely volatile assets. The market still has a lot to learn about this new class of assets that is only about 15 years old. However, investors have more or less viewed Bitcoin and other cryptos similarly to tech stocks and riskier assets. These assets tend to perform better in a falling-rate environment because safer assets like Treasury Bills don't yield as much, making investors more likely to reach for returns. On the other hand, riskier assets don't fare as well in a higher-rate environment. Still, Bitcoin held up much better than expected during the rising interest rate cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币和所有加密货币一般来说都是极其波动的资产。市场仍然有很多需要了解的关于这个只有大约 15 年历史的新资产类别。然而，投资者或多或少将比特币和其他加密货币视为科技股和更具风险的资产。这些资产在降息环境中往往表现更好，因为像国债这样的安全资产收益不高，使得投资者更有可能追求回报。另一方面，在高息环境中，风险资产表现不佳。然而，比特币在升息周期中表现比预期要好得多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2aa853c5a846625048f8df9915ccf258.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2aa853c5a846625048f8df9915ccf258.png"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin Price data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 YCharts 提供的比特币价格数据。</p>
</div><p>While the Fed was actively raising interest rates, Bitcoin underperformed the broader market but performed better once things settled. Because Bitcoin is more volatile than the market, some of this was likely due to the Fed's anticipated easing. However, I also think some of the outperformance was related to investors' growing belief that Bitcoin and its finite supply could serve as a hedge against inflation and a form of &#34;digital gold.&#34; The launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also expanded market exposure to the token.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美联储积极加息期间，比特币表现不佳，但一旦事情稳定下来，表现就好转了。由于比特币比市场更具波动性，其中一些原因很可能是由于市场对美联储预期的宽松。然而，我也认为一些超额表现与投资者日益相信比特币及其有限供应可以作为对抗通胀和一种 “数字黄金” 的对冲有关。现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETFs）的推出也扩大了市场对这种代币的曝光。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead to next year, conditions look much better for Bitcoin and the crypto sector. That's mainly because the Federal Reserve began lowering its federal funds rate in September, the beginning of what the market expects to be an interest rate-cutting cycle. According to <strong>CME Group</strong>'s FedWatch Tool, which looks at futures pricing on the federal funds rate, traders expect the Fed to drop the federal funds rate from its current range of 4.75% to 5% to a target range of 3.25% to 3.50% by the end of 2025. Lower interest rates typically lead to a weaker dollar. History tells us that Bitcoin performs well when the U.S. dollar weakens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望明年，比特币和加密货币行业的前景看起来要好得多。这主要是因为美联储在 9 月开始降低联邦基金利率，市场预计这是一个降息周期的开始。根据 <strong>芝加哥商品交易所集团</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具，该工具查看联邦基金利率期货定价，交易员预计美联储将把联邦基金利率从目前的 4.75% 至 5% 的区间降至 2025 年底的 3.25% 至 3.50% 的目标区间。较低的利率通常导致美元走弱。历史告诉我们，当美元走弱时，比特币表现良好。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6c8a06eff869e482ecbf08c9d2fc9d56.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6c8a06eff869e482ecbf08c9d2fc9d56.png"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin Price data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 YCharts 提供的比特币价格数据。</p>
</div><h2>Will there be new highs?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>是否会创下新高？</h2>
</div><p>Investors should note that past performance does not indicate future success. Just because Bitcoin has performed well with a weaker dollar doesn't mean it always will. Additionally, while lower rates typically lead to a weaker dollar, other factors could impact the buck, such as oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应该注意，过去的表现并不代表未来的成功。仅仅因为比特币在美元走弱时表现良好，并不意味着它总是会表现良好。此外，尽管较低的利率通常导致美元走弱，但其他因素可能影响美元，比如油价。</p>
</div><p>That said, I do believe Bitcoin is poised for new highs next year, partly due to the likelihood of a weaker dollar and as the regulatory picture becomes clearer for Bitcoin. The more integrated Bitcoin becomes with society and as an investment in the general portfolio, the more likely are regulators to clarify some of the gray areas around Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，我相信比特币明年有望创下新高，部分原因是由于美元走弱的可能性，以及监管形势对比特币变得更加清晰。比特币与社会和一般投资组合的融合程度越高，监管机构就越有可能澄清一些围绕比特币的灰色地带。</p>
</div><p>The ultimate winner of the U.S. presidential election and the incoming administration could impact the regulatory landscape, of course, but regardless of the winner, I think regulatory clarity is an eventuality. What price will Bitcoin hit next year? I'll leave a specific price target to the analysts, but I think Bitcoin is a good long-term buy poised for new highs next year and the years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统选举的最终赢家和新政府可能会影响监管环境，当然，无论谁获胜，我认为监管的明确性是必然的。比特币明年会达到什么价格？具体的价格目标我留给分析师，但我认为比特币是一个长期投资的好选择，有望在明年和未来几年创下新高。</p>
</div>

Will Bitcoin Hit a New High in 2025?

- 比特币今年上涨近 48%，表现优于标普 500 指数。  
- 美联储开始降息，市场预期将推动比特币价格上涨。  
- 投资者对比特币作为对抗通胀的工具信心增强。  

比特币会在 2025 年达到新高吗？