<p>上周四晚，电动汽车（EV）先驱 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 0.23%）推出了备受期待的机器人出租车——实际上有 21 辆——名为 Cybercab。这款双座车辆前部类似特斯拉 Model 3，后部呈现未来感的特斯拉 Cybertruck。它是专为自动驾驶而设计的车辆，因此没有方向盘或踏板。</p>
<p>像往常一样，特斯拉新产品发布会前，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在投资者和科技爱好者中引起了很多兴奋。恰当地，活动在加利福尼亚州伯班克的 <strong>华纳兄弟探索</strong> 电影工作室举行，从戏剧角度看确实令人印象深刻。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQwOTkvdGVzbGEtcm9ib3RheGktZXZlbnQtY3liZXJjYWItZWxvbi1tdXNrLTIucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQwOTkvdGVzbGEtcm9ib3RheGktZXZlbnQtY3liZXJjYWItZWxvbi1tdXNrLTIucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的活动细节较少，导致特斯拉股价下跌，搭车服务股票飙升</h2>
<p>特斯拉股价在周五下跌了 8.8%，而当天所有主要股指上涨，这并不令我感到意外。当活动结束时，我的第一反应是：“就这样？”（特斯拉股价在周一和周二略微上涨，但截至周二收盘仍比机器人出租车活动前下跌了 8%。）</p>
<p>周五，投资者除了抛售特斯拉股票外，还在购买搭车服务领导者 <strong>优步科技</strong> 和 <strong>Lyft</strong> 的股票，分别上涨了 10.8% 和 9.6%。特斯拉在活动中提供了很少关于计划使用自动驾驶特斯拉车辆开展搭车服务的细节，投资者自然将此视为优步和 Lyft 的利好消息，因为这些公司在使用自动驾驶车辆开展搭车服务方面处于有利位置。</p>
<p>马斯克的讲话持续约 20 分钟，至少对于观看直播的人来说是这样。大约有 340 万人在特斯拉的 X（前身为 Twitter）频道上观看。话虽如此，参与者的庆祝活动持续时间更长，他们由 Optimus 机器人提供饮料，并可以乘坐 Cybercab 或无人驾驶的特斯拉 Model Y 在宽敞的电影工作室内转一圈。</p>
<p>鉴于这一批判性看法，我认为在涉及特斯拉时我是相当客观的。事实上，我对其 2022 年 10 月举办的第二届人工智能（AI）日的评价是比较积极的。我的两个主要看法：</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<p>马斯克以拥有许多宏伟计划而闻名，其中一些可能不会超越开发阶段。话虽如此，特斯拉最终可能会大规模销售人形机器人 [其 Optimus 机器人]。</p>
<p>特斯拉投资者喜欢马斯克的大胆设想。成为任何大规模长期趋势的早期参与者可以为公司提供相当大且常常持久的先发优势。</p>
<h2>特斯拉迫切需要其 Cybercab 和搭车服务取得成功</h2>
<p>特斯拉最近一直在努力增长电动汽车销量，这源于整体电动汽车市场放缓和竞争加剧。为了提振销量，它一直在降价，这损害了利润和收益。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2024 年第一季度</th>
<th>2024 年第二季度</th>
<th>2024 年第三季度 *</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>年同比营收变化</td>
<td>（9%）</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>调整后每股收益（EPS）年同比变化</td>
<td>（47%）</td>
<td>（43%）</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>车辆交付年同比变化</td>
<td>（9%）</td>
<td>（5%）</td>
<td>6%**</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>汽车业务毛利率</td>
<td>18.5%，较去年同期的 21.1% 下降</td>
<td>18.5%，较去年同期的 19.2% 下降</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：特斯拉的财报。YOY = 同比。*Q3 财务结果预计将于 10 月 23 日发布。** 华尔街预计年同比交付增长约为 8%，因此公司在一定程度上未达到这一预期。</p>
<p>尽管公司的能源和 “现有服务和其他” 部门表现良好，但这些部门不太可能足以长期推动特斯拉股价上涨。因此，公司需要其 Cybercab 和搭车服务取得成功，并且需要尽快推出这款车辆。</p>
<p>在这一点上，马斯克在活动中表示，他预计特斯拉将在 “2027 年之前” 开始生产 Cybercab。这一时间表似乎过于乐观，他还表示该车辆的价格将低于 “30,000 美元”。马斯克还分享了他预计特斯拉将在明年在加利福尼亚和德克萨斯州开始运营全自动驾驶车辆——Model 3 和 Y。当然，这一时间表将取决于监管批准。</p>
<p>特斯拉目前在机器人出租车领域落后，但这并不意味着它最终不会赶上甚至超越领先者，包括 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌，其 Waymo 业务在美国被视为领先者。</p>
<h2>特斯拉股票投资者可能会在 10 月 23 日变得更加苛刻</h2>
<p>特斯拉计划在 10 月 23 日周三收盘后公布其第三季度业绩。在令人失望的机器人出租车活动之后，投资者可能会对特斯拉的 Q3 业绩和马斯克在财报电话会议上分享的数据提出更高要求。</p>
<p>特斯拉股票的前瞻性市盈率为 72 倍，对于一家华尔街预计未来五年平均增长率为 12% 至 15% 的公司来说，这是一个非常高的估值。其他估值指标也表明股票被严重高估。股票的高估值反映了许多投资者预计特斯拉至少在长期内将超过华尔街的盈利预期。</p>
<p>如果马斯克及其团队在下周三的财报电话会议上没有超额交付数据，特斯拉股票可能会再次受到重创。以下是华尔街对 Q3 营收和利润的预期：</p>
<ul>
<li>253.3 亿美元的营收，同比增长 8.5%</li>
<li>每股调整后盈利（EPS）为 0.58 美元，同比下降 12.1%</li>
</ul>

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉最近举办的机器出租车活动，推出了 Cybercab，但由于缺乏细节，遭到了失望的回应，导致其股价下跌了 8.8%。投资者开始将注意力转向优步和 Lyft 等网约车公司，它们的股价分别上涨了 10.8% 和 9.6%。特斯拉在电动汽车销售和竞争方面的困境使得其 Cybercab 和网约车服务的成功变得必不可少，预计在 2027 年之前开始生产。在这次活动受挫后，投资者对特斯拉 10 月 23 日公布的第三季度业绩更加苛刻要求</p>

<p>Last Thursday night, electric vehicle (EV) pioneer <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 0.23%) unveiled its much-anticipated robotaxi -- actually, 21 of them -- called the Cybercab. The two-seater vehicle suggested a Tesla Model 3 in the front and the futuristic-looking Tesla Cybertruck in the rear. It's purpose-built as an autonomous vehicle, so it has no steering wheel or pedals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周四晚，电动汽车（EV）先驱 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 0.23%）推出了备受期待的机器人出租车——实际上有 21 辆——名为 Cybercab。这款双座车辆前部类似特斯拉 Model 3，后部呈现未来感的特斯拉 Cybertruck。它是专为自动驾驶而设计的车辆，因此没有方向盘或踏板。</p>
</div><p>As usual for a Tesla new product reveal, CEO Elon Musk whipped up a lot of excitement among investors and tech enthusiasts prior to the event. Fittingly, the event occurred at <strong>Warner Bros. Discovery</strong>'s movie studio in Burbank, California, and indeed it was impressive from a theatrical standpoint.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像往常一样，特斯拉新产品发布会前，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在投资者和科技爱好者中引起了很多兴奋。恰当地，活动在加利福尼亚州伯班克的 <strong>华纳兄弟探索</strong> 电影工作室举行，从戏剧角度看确实令人印象深刻。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQwOTkvdGVzbGEtcm9ib3RheGktZXZlbnQtY3liZXJjYWItZWxvbi1tdXNrLTIucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794099%2Ftesla-robotaxi-event-cybercab-elon-musk-2.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's event was light on detail, resulting in Tesla stock dropping and ride-hailing stocks surging</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的活动细节较少，导致特斯拉股价下跌，搭车服务股票飙升</h2>
</div><p>Tesla stock dropped 8.8% on Friday, a day in which all major stock indexes rose, which didn't surprise me. When the event ended for streamers, my immediate thought was, &#34;That's it?&#34; (Tesla stock edged up slightly Monday and Tuesday, but it is still 8% lower as of Tuesday's market close than it was prior to the robotaxi event.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉股价在周五下跌了 8.8%，而当天所有主要股指上涨，这并不令我感到意外。当活动结束时，我的第一反应是：“就这样？”（特斯拉股价在周一和周二略微上涨，但截至周二收盘仍比机器人出租车活动前下跌了 8%。）</p>
</div><p>While investors were dumping shares of Tesla on Friday, they were also buying shares of ride-hailing leaders <strong>Uber Technologies</strong> and <strong>Lyft</strong>, which surged 10.8% and 9.6%, respectively. Tesla provided scant details during its event about its plans to start a ride-hailing service using self-driving Tesla vehicles, which investors naturally viewed as positive news for Uber and Lyft, as these companies are well positioned to be leaders in operating ride-hailing services using autonomous vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，投资者除了抛售特斯拉股票外，还在购买搭车服务领导者 <strong>优步科技</strong> 和 <strong>Lyft</strong> 的股票，分别上涨了 10.8% 和 9.6%。特斯拉在活动中提供了很少关于计划使用自动驾驶特斯拉车辆开展搭车服务的细节，投资者自然将此视为优步和 Lyft 的利好消息，因为这些公司在使用自动驾驶车辆开展搭车服务方面处于有利位置。</p>
</div><p>Musk's remarks lasted only about 20 minutes, at least for streamers. There were approximately 3.4 million of us watching on Tesla's X (formerly Twitter) feed. That said, the festivities did continue longer for attendees, who were served drinks by Optimus robots and could take a spin around the expansive movie studio set in a Cybercab or a driverless Tesla Model Y.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克的讲话持续约 20 分钟，至少对于观看直播的人来说是这样。大约有 340 万人在特斯拉的 X（前身为 Twitter）频道上观看。话虽如此，参与者的庆祝活动持续时间更长，他们由 Optimus 机器人提供饮料，并可以乘坐 Cybercab 或无人驾驶的特斯拉 Model Y 在宽敞的电影工作室内转一圈。</p>
</div><p>Given this critical take, it seems worth noting that I think I'm quite objective when it comes to Tesla. Indeed, my review of its second annual Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day, held in October 2022, was moderately positive. My two main takeaways:</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于这一批判性看法，我认为在涉及特斯拉时我是相当客观的。事实上，我对其 2022 年 10 月举办的第二届人工智能（AI）日的评价是比较积极的。我的两个主要看法：</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Musk is well known for having many grandiose plans, some of which will probably not go beyond the development stage. That said, it seems more likely than not that Tesla will eventually sell humanoid robots [its Optimus robot] at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克以拥有许多宏伟计划而闻名，其中一些可能不会超越开发阶段。话虽如此，特斯拉最终可能会大规模销售人形机器人 [其 Optimus 机器人]。</p>
</div><p>Tesla investors have to like that Musk thinks big. Being an early entrant into any massive secular trend can provide a company with a considerable and often lasting early mover advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉投资者喜欢马斯克的大胆设想。成为任何大规模长期趋势的早期参与者可以为公司提供相当大且常常持久的先发优势。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla greatly needs its Cybercab and ride-hailing service to be successful</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉迫切需要其 Cybercab 和搭车服务取得成功</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has recently been struggling to grow EV sales, which stems from a slowdown in the overall EV market and increasing competition. It's been lowering prices to boost sales, which has hurt margins and earnings.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Q1 2024</th>
<th>Q2 2024</th>
<th>Q3 2024*</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue change YOY</td>
<td>(9%)</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) change YOY</td>
<td>(47%)</td>
<td>(43%)</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vehicle deliveries change YOY</td>
<td>(9%)</td>
<td>(5%)</td>
<td>6%**</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Auto segment gross margin</td>
<td>18.5%, down from 21.1% in the year-ago period</td>
<td>18.5%, down from 19.2% in the year-ago period</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉最近一直在努力增长电动汽车销量，这源于整体电动汽车市场放缓和竞争加剧。为了提振销量，它一直在降价，这损害了利润和收益。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2024 年第一季度</th>
<th>2024 年第二季度</th>
<th>2024 年第三季度 *</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>年同比营收变化</td>
<td>（9%）</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>调整后每股收益（EPS）年同比变化</td>
<td>（47%）</td>
<td>（43%）</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>车辆交付年同比变化</td>
<td>（9%）</td>
<td>（5%）</td>
<td>6%**</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>汽车业务毛利率</td>
<td>18.5%，较去年同期的 21.1% 下降</td>
<td>18.5%，较去年同期的 19.2% 下降</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Tesla's earnings reports. YOY = year over year. *Q3 financial results are scheduled to be released on Oct. 23. **Wall Street was looking for deliveries growth of about 8% YOY, so the company fell somewhat short of this expectation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：特斯拉的财报。YOY = 同比。*Q3 财务结果预计将于 10 月 23 日发布。** 华尔街预计年同比交付增长约为 8%，因此公司在一定程度上未达到这一预期。</p>
</div><p>While the company's energy and &#34;existing services and other&#34; segments have been performing well, they are not likely to be enough to power Tesla stock higher over the long term. So, the company needs its Cybercab and ride-hailing service to be successful -- and it needs to launch this vehicle as soon as possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司的能源和 “现有服务和其他” 部门表现良好，但这些部门不太可能足以长期推动特斯拉股价上涨。因此，公司需要其 Cybercab 和搭车服务取得成功，并且需要尽快推出这款车辆。</p>
</div><p>On that note, Musk said during the event that he expects Tesla to start production of the Cybercab &#34;before 2027.&#34; That timeline seems overly optimistic, as does his expectation that the vehicle will cost &#34;below $30,000.&#34; Musk also shared that he anticipates Tesla will begin operating fully self-driving vehicles -- Model 3s and Ys -- in California and Texas next year. Of course, this timeline will be dependent upon regulatory approvals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一点上，马斯克在活动中表示，他预计特斯拉将在 “2027 年之前” 开始生产 Cybercab。这一时间表似乎过于乐观，他还表示该车辆的价格将低于 “30,000 美元”。马斯克还分享了他预计特斯拉将在明年在加利福尼亚和德克萨斯州开始运营全自动驾驶车辆——Model 3 和 Y。当然，这一时间表将取决于监管批准。</p>
</div><p>Tesla is behind in the robotaxi space right now, but that doesn't mean it won't eventually catch up to or even eclipse the leaders, including <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google, whose Waymo business has to be considered the leader in the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉目前在机器人出租车领域落后，但这并不意味着它最终不会赶上甚至超越领先者，包括 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌，其 Waymo 业务在美国被视为领先者。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla stock investors will likely now be more demanding on Oct. 23</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉股票投资者可能会在 10 月 23 日变得更加苛刻</h2>
</div><p>Tesla is scheduled to report its third-quarter results after the market close on Wednesday, Oct. 23. After the disappointing robotaxi event, investors will probably be more demanding of Tesla's Q3 results and the data that Musk shares on the earnings call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉计划在 10 月 23 日周三收盘后公布其第三季度业绩。在令人失望的机器人出租车活动之后，投资者可能会对特斯拉的 Q3 业绩和马斯克在财报电话会议上分享的数据提出更高要求。</p>
</div><p>Tesla stock trades at 72 times forward earnings, a very lofty valuation for a company that Wall Street expects will grow earnings over the next five years at an average 12% to 15% annually, depending upon the source. Other valuation metrics also suggest a significantly overvalued stock. The stock's high valuation reflects that many investors expect Tesla to speed by Wall Street's earnings estimates, at least over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉股票的前瞻性市盈率为 72 倍，对于一家华尔街预计未来五年平均增长率为 12% 至 15% 的公司来说，这是一个非常高的估值。其他估值指标也表明股票被严重高估。股票的高估值反映了许多投资者预计特斯拉至少在长期内将超过华尔街的盈利预期。</p>
</div><p>Tesla stock seems at risk of taking another big hit if Musk and his team don't overdeliver -- at least on what data is shared on the earnings call -- next Wednesday. Here are Wall Street's Q3 expectations for the top and bottom lines:</p>
<ul>
<li>Revenue of $25.33 billion, or growth of 8.5% year over year</li>
<li>Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.58, or a decline of 12.1% year over year</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果马斯克及其团队在下周三的财报电话会议上没有超额交付数据，特斯拉股票可能会再次受到重创。以下是华尔街对 Q3 营收和利润的预期：</p>
<ul>
<li>253.3 亿美元的营收，同比增长 8.5%</li>
<li>每股调整后盈利（EPS）为 0.58 美元，同比下降 12.1%</li>
</ul>
</div>

Tesla Stock Investors Will Likely Be More Demanding on Oct. 23 After the Detail-Light Robotaxi Event

- 特斯拉发布了名为 Cybercab 的自动驾驶出租车，吸引了大量关注。  
- 事件后特斯拉股价下跌 8.8%，而优步和 Lyft 股价上涨。  
- 特斯拉需尽快推出 Cybercab，以应对销售增长乏力和竞争加剧。

在 10 月 23 日细节较少的无人出租车活动之后，特斯拉股票投资者可能会变得更加苛求