<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2022/08/1642843877101-a96c9f0f-4961-4a29-9982-71dd9cd216fb.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2022/08/1642843877101-a96c9f0f-4961-4a29-9982-71dd9cd216fb.jpg"/></p>
<p>随着第三季度财报季的开始，德国 DAX 40 指数接近历史最高点，交易于 19,432 欧元附近，略低于 19,630 欧元的纪录高点。</p>
<h2>欧洲央行决策在即</h2>
<p>随着欧洲央行准备就 11 月货币政策会议发表讲话，DAX 指数仍处于紧张状态。</p>
<p>预计央行将在会议中进行本年度第三次 0.25% 的降息，将基准利率降至 3.25%。</p>
<p>最近的经济数据显示，欧洲央行面临着加大降息压力。周三公布的数据显示，法国和意大利等主要国家的消费者价格指数（CPI）在 10 月持续下降。</p>
<p>在意大利，消费者价格指数（CPI）在 9 月下降了 0.2%，同比下降至 0.7%。年度通胀报告远低于欧洲央行的 2.0% 目标。</p>
<p>初步报告显示，欧洲通胀数据也在 9 月降至 1.7%，低于 2022 年的 10.6%。</p>
<p>与此同时，随着劳动力市场开始出现疲软迹象，欧洲经济表现不佳。例如，德国的大型雇主大众汽车和巴斯夫考虑大规模裁员，因需求下降。</p>
<p>因此，欧洲央行可能决定降息以刺激经济，使资本获取变得廉价。</p>
<p>欧洲债券市场反映了欧洲央行进一步宽松的可能性。德国 10 年期国债收益率下降至 2.20%，低于周五的 2.30% 和 6 月的 2.7%。五年期国债收益率也回落至 2.04%。</p>
<h2>央行宽松政策与中国</h2>
<p>其他全球央行有继续降息的空间。在美国，美联储在上次会议中进行了大幅降息，11 月 0.25% 的降息可能性增加。</p>
<p>英格兰银行、瑞士国家银行（SNB）和瑞典央行等央行在过去几个月也降息。</p>
<p>当未来降息机会增加时，DAX 指数和其他中国公司表现良好。</p>
<p>与此同时，DAX 指数创下历史新高，因为中国在过去几周内大举放水。</p>
<p>官方宣布了价值数十亿美元的多项刺激计划，以刺激经济增长。</p>
<p>例如，央行将利率降至接近零，并在银行规则上更加灵活。</p>
<p>中国的情况对 DAX 指数至关重要，因为该指数中许多公司在中国开展大量业务。例如，大众汽车和宝马等汽车制造商将中国视为最大市场之一。</p>
<h2>企业财报在即</h2>
<p>DAX 指数的下一个重要催化剂是美国和德国正在进行的财报季。</p>
<p>大多数美国公司如高盛、摩根大通和摩根士丹利发布了强劲的业绩。这些银行受益于较高的利率和持续的股票交易狂潮。</p>
<p>预计德国公司也将在不久后发布业绩。尽管公司发布了强劲的财务业绩和前瞻指引，阿迪达斯股价周二下跌超过 6%。公司预计今年将实现 12 亿欧元的营收，得益于其 Gazelle 和 Samba 品牌。</p>
<p>德国最大公司 SAP 将在下周成为下一个发布财务业绩的顶级公司。这些数字将在股价因云和人工智能动能而飙升至历史高位时发布。SAP 股价从 2022 年最低点上涨了超过 170%。</p>
<p>在 SAP 之后，下一个值得关注的顶级公司将是德国最大银行德意志银行，将于周三发布。拜尔斯道夫和梅赛德斯 - 奔驰集团也将在下周发布业绩。</p>
<p>大多数 DAX 指数成分股今年表现良好。西门子能源从 2023 年表现最差的公司变为今年表现最佳，涨幅超过 190%。莱茵金属、MTU 航空、德商银行、SAP 和 Zalando 等公司也是其他表现最佳的公司。</p>
<h2>DAX 指数预测</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/DAX-index-1024x568.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/DAX-index-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p>周线图显示，DAX 指数在过去几年中一直处于强劲的牛市中。从 2022 年的低点 11,905 欧元上涨至 19,432 欧元以上。在此过程中，形成了一个上升通道模式，并保持在 50 周和 100 周指数移动平均线（EMA）之上。</p>
<p>MACD 和相对强度指数（RSI）形成了一个熊市背离模式。因此，虽然可能会出现更多涨势，但指数在未来几周可能会出现一些波动。这意味着它可能会重新测试重要的心理支撑位 19,000 欧元。</p>
<p>关于 SAP、德意志银行和梅赛德斯业绩的 DAX 指数分析文章首发于 Invezz</p>

MBGYY

<p>DAX 40 指数接近其 19,630 欧元的历史最高水平，目前交投于 19,432 欧元，第三季度盈利季开始。随着欧洲央行（ECB）就可能的 0.25% 利率降息做出决定，市场预期逐渐增加，这受到主要国家通胀率下降的影响。该指数的表现得到了中国的刺激措施和主要公司强劲盈利的支撑。预计即将公布的 SAP、德意志银行和梅赛德斯的报告将进一步影响该指数，今年该指数已经实现了显著增长，从 2022 年的 11,905 欧元上涨至当前水平</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2022/08/1642843877101-a96c9f0f-4961-4a29-9982-71dd9cd216fb.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2022/08/1642843877101-a96c9f0f-4961-4a29-9982-71dd9cd216fb.jpg"/></p>
<p>The DAX 40 index was hovering near its all-time high as the third quarter earnings season started, and as traders waited for the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) decision. It was trading at €19,432, a few points below the record high of €19,630.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着第三季度财报季的开始，德国 DAX 40 指数接近历史最高点，交易于 19,432 欧元附近，略低于 19,630 欧元的纪录高点。</p>
</div><h2>European Central Bank decision ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>欧洲央行决策在即</h2>
</div><p>The DAX index remained on edge as the ECB prepared to deliver its November monetary policy meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着欧洲央行准备就 11 月货币政策会议发表讲话，DAX 指数仍处于紧张状态。</p>
</div><p>In it, the bank is expected to deliver the third 0.25% rate cut of the year, bringing the base interest rate to 3.25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计央行将在会议中进行本年度第三次 0.25% 的降息，将基准利率降至 3.25%。</p>
</div><p>Recent economic numbers show why the ECB is under increased pressure to cut interest rates. Data released on Wednesday showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in key countries like France and Italy continued falling in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的经济数据显示，欧洲央行面临着加大降息压力。周三公布的数据显示，法国和意大利等主要国家的消费者价格指数（CPI）在 10 月持续下降。</p>
</div><p>In Italy, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped by 0.2% in September and to 0.7% on a year-on-year basis. The annual inflation report has moved much lower than the ECB’s target of 2.0%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在意大利，消费者价格指数（CPI）在 9 月下降了 0.2%，同比下降至 0.7%。年度通胀报告远低于欧洲央行的 2.0% 目标。</p>
</div><p>The preliminary report showed that the European inflation data also dropped to 1.7% in September, down from over 10.6% in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初步报告显示，欧洲通胀数据也在 9 月降至 1.7%，低于 2022 年的 10.6%。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the European economy was not doing well as the labor market started to show signs of weakening. For one, some big employers in Germany like Volkswagen and BASF are considering large layoffs as demand wanes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，随着劳动力市场开始出现疲软迹象，欧洲经济表现不佳。例如，德国的大型雇主大众汽车和巴斯夫考虑大规模裁员，因需求下降。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the ECB will likely decide to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy by making it cheap to access capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，欧洲央行可能决定降息以刺激经济，使资本获取变得廉价。</p>
</div><p>The odds of more easing by the ECB are reflected in the bond market. The German 10-year bund yields dropped to 2.20%, down from 2.30% on Friday and 2.7% in June. The five-year bund yield also retreated to 2.04%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲债券市场反映了欧洲央行进一步宽松的可能性。德国 10 年期国债收益率下降至 2.20%，低于周五的 2.30% 和 6 月的 2.7%。五年期国债收益率也回落至 2.04%。</p>
</div><h2>Central banks easing and China</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>央行宽松政策与中国</h2>
</div><p>Other global central banks have room to continue cutting interest rates. In the US, the Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo rate cut in its last meeting, and the odds of a 0.25% cut in November have risen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他全球央行有继续降息的空间。在美国，美联储在上次会议中进行了大幅降息，11 月 0.25% 的降息可能性增加。</p>
</div><p>Central banks like the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank (SNB), and Riksbank have also slashed rates in the past few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英格兰银行、瑞士国家银行（SNB）和瑞典央行等央行在过去几个月也降息。</p>
</div><p>The DAX index and other Chinese firms do well when there are rising chances of more rate cuts in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当未来降息机会增加时，DAX 指数和其他中国公司表现良好。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the DAX index has risen to a record high because China has opened the floodgates of money in the past few weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，DAX 指数创下历史新高，因为中国在过去几周内大举放水。</p>
</div><p>Officials have announced several stimulus packages worth billions of dollars to stimulate an economy that is weakening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官方宣布了价值数十亿美元的多项刺激计划，以刺激经济增长。</p>
</div><p>For example, the central bank has brought interest rates to near zero and become more flexible on bank rules.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，央行将利率降至接近零，并在银行规则上更加灵活。</p>
</div><p>The happenings in China are important for the DAX index because many companies in the index do a lot of business there. For example, automakers like Volkswagen and BMW count China as one of their biggest markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的情况对 DAX 指数至关重要，因为该指数中许多公司在中国开展大量业务。例如，大众汽车和宝马等汽车制造商将中国视为最大市场之一。</p>
</div><h2>Corporate earnings ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>企业财报在即</h2>
</div><p>The next important catalyst for the DAX index ist the ongoing earnings season in the US and Germany.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DAX 指数的下一个重要催化剂是美国和德国正在进行的财报季。</p>
</div><p>Most US companies like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley published strong numbers. These banks have been helped by higher interest rates and the ongoing stock trading frenzy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数美国公司如高盛、摩根大通和摩根士丹利发布了强劲的业绩。这些银行受益于较高的利率和持续的股票交易狂潮。</p>
</div><p>German companies are also expected to publish their numbers in the near term. Adidas stock price retreated by over 6% on Tuesday even after the company published strong financial results and forward guidance. It expects to make €1.2 billion in revenue this year, helped by its Gazelle and Samba brands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计德国公司也将在不久后发布业绩。尽管公司发布了强劲的财务业绩和前瞻指引，阿迪达斯股价周二下跌超过 6%。公司预计今年将实现 12 亿欧元的营收，得益于其 Gazelle 和 Samba 品牌。</p>
</div><p>SAP, the biggest company in Germany, will be the next top firm to publish its financial results next week. These numbers will come at a time when the stock has surged to a record high, helped by its momentum on cloud and artificial intelligence. SAP shares have rallied by over 170% from the lowest level in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国最大公司 SAP 将在下周成为下一个发布财务业绩的顶级公司。这些数字将在股价因云和人工智能动能而飙升至历史高位时发布。SAP 股价从 2022 年最低点上涨了超过 170%。</p>
</div><p>After SAP, the next top company to watch will be Deutsche Bank, the biggest bank in the country, which will release on Wednesday. Beiersdorf and Mercedes Benz Group will also release their numbers next week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 SAP 之后，下一个值得关注的顶级公司将是德国最大银行德意志银行，将于周三发布。拜尔斯道夫和梅赛德斯 - 奔驰集团也将在下周发布业绩。</p>
</div><p>Most DAX index constituents have done well this year. Siemens Energy moved from the worst performer in 2023 to the best this year as it soared by over 190%. Other firms like Rheinmetall, MTU Aero, Commerzbank, SAP, and Zalando are the other top performers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数 DAX 指数成分股今年表现良好。西门子能源从 2023 年表现最差的公司变为今年表现最佳，涨幅超过 190%。莱茵金属、MTU 航空、德商银行、SAP 和 Zalando 等公司也是其他表现最佳的公司。</p>
</div><h2>DAX index forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>DAX 指数预测</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/DAX-index-1024x568.png" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/DAX-index-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p>The weekly chart shows that the DAX index has been in a strong bull run in the past few years. It has risen from the 2022 low of €11,905 to over €19,432. Along the way, it has formed an ascending channel pattern, and remained above the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周线图显示，DAX 指数在过去几年中一直处于强劲的牛市中。从 2022 年的低点 11,905 欧元上涨至 19,432 欧元以上。在此过程中，形成了一个上升通道模式，并保持在 50 周和 100 周指数移动平均线（EMA）之上。</p>
</div><p>The MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have formed a bearish divergence pattern. Therefore, while more gains are likely to happen, the index may show some volatility in the coming weeks. This means that it may retest the important psychological point at €19,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MACD 和相对强度指数（RSI）形成了一个熊市背离模式。因此，虽然可能会出现更多涨势，但指数在未来几周可能会出现一些波动。这意味着它可能会重新测试重要的心理支撑位 19,000 欧元。</p>
</div><p>The post DAX index analysis ahead of SAP, Deutsche Bank, Mercedes earnings appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于 SAP、德意志银行和梅赛德斯业绩的 DAX 指数分析文章首发于 Invezz</p>
</div>

在 SAP、德意志银行和梅赛德斯发布财报之前的 DAX 指数分析