<p>当今科技领域一个巨大的增长机会无疑在人工智能（AI）领域。根据 Grand View Research 的估计，到本十年末整个 AI 市场价值可能超过 1.8 万亿美元。这意味着复合年增长率达到 36.6%。对于科技公司来说，这种令人垂涎的增长水平是有助于大笔投资于新技术的合理性所在。</p>
<p>但在这个领域也不乏竞争。开放 AI 公司的 ChatGPT 制造商宣布，尽管创造了 37 亿美元的收入，但今年将会亏损约 50 亿美元，凸显了在 AI 领域实现盈利可能会有多么具有挑战性，尤其是在短期内。</p>
<p>一个目前大力投资于 AI 的公司是 <strong>微软</strong>（MSFT -0.63%）。它不仅投资于开放 AI，还在用 AI 能力增强其产品和服务上投入资金。然而，这将对其底线产生多大回报，还是值得讨论的。</p>
<h2>近年来微软的资本支出支出激增</h2>
<p>资本支出（capex）是公司为了长期发展而用于增加、升级或维护资产的支出。这是一项自主支出，当存在巨大增长机会时，支出可以显著增加。在过去五年中，微软的资本支出增速远远快于收入增速。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9a025b48c9299347c5183b26e3aaead.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9a025b48c9299347c5183b26e3aaead.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 MSFT 季度资本支出数据</p>
<p>这并不一定是令人担忧的原因，因为增加资本支出的目标是为了未来更大的收入增长。</p>
<p>关键测试将在于这种高水平的支出是否会导致微软增长加速。</p>
<h2>仅仅为了投资于 AI 而支出不一定会有回报</h2>
<p>微软拥有投资于 AI 所需的资源，但是投入大量资金并不意味着未来对企业有所回报。如今市场上有越来越多基于 AI 的产品和服务，微软需要证明其拥有优秀的产品，才能实现强劲的收入增长。</p>
<p>Salesforce 首席执行官 Marc Benioff 将微软的新 Copilot AI 与过去备受诟病的 Clippy 进行了比较。微软最近推出了更新版本的 Copilot，但如果不能打动商业用户，并帮助证明每月 30 美元的 Microsoft 365 用户价格的合理性，公司在 AI 上的投资可能最终不值得。</p>
<h2>你应该投资于微软的股票吗？</h2>
<p>微软股票今年上涨了相对温和的 12%（<strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 上涨了 23%），投资者可能对股票的估值以及 AI 是否会成为公司预期的催化剂感到担忧。以 36 倍市盈率计算，这家科技股有点昂贵，其 3.1 万亿美元的估值意味着它是世界上最有价值的公司之一。</p>
<p>如果你是为了长期投资并愿意持有几年，那么微软仍然是一个不错的选择。其在办公软件产品、流行的 Windows 操作系统以及扩展到游戏领域的主导地位，都是这家公司未来可持续发展的原因。然而，一个问题是，如果没有高增长率，投资者可能会对股票支付高额溢价感到犹豫。而 AI 带来的低迷增长可能会加剧这些担忧。</p>
<p>我预计公司最终会找出在 AI 方面什么有效什么无效。微软有能力犯错误并在探索过程中进行实验。这就是为什么短期内，如果其 Copilot AI 表现不佳，可能会遇到困难，但从长远来看，股票仍有可能升值。</p>

微软

<p>微软正在大力投资人工智能领域，预计到 2030 年市场规模将超过 1.8 万亿美元。尽管资本支出巨大，但人们仍然担忧盈利能力和竞争，特别是在 OpenAI 预计的亏损之后。微软的股价今年上涨了 12%，但其高估值和适度增长引发了投资者的担忧。虽然该公司拥有创新资源，但像 Copilot 这样的人工智能产品的成功对未来收入增长至关重要。长期前景仍然积极，但短期表现可能具有挑战性</p>

<p>A big growth opportunity in tech these days is undoubtedly in artificial intelligence (AI). The entire AI market could be worth more than $1.8 <em>trillion</em> by the end of the decade, according to estimates from Grand View Research. That translates into a compound annual growth rate of 36.6%. For tech companies, that mouthwatering level of growth is what helps justify spending heavily on new technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当今科技领域一个巨大的增长机会无疑在人工智能（AI）领域。根据 Grand View Research 的估计，到本十年末整个 AI 市场价值可能超过 1.8 万亿美元。这意味着复合年增长率达到 36.6%。对于科技公司来说，这种令人垂涎的增长水平是有助于大笔投资于新技术的合理性所在。</p>
</div><p>But there's also going to be no shortage of competition in the space. And the announcement that ChatGPT maker OpenAI will incur around $5 billion in losses this year despite generating $3.7 billion in revenue underscores how challenging it may be to turn a profit on AI, especially in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在这个领域也不乏竞争。开放 AI 公司的 ChatGPT 制造商宣布，尽管创造了 37 亿美元的收入，但今年将会亏损约 50 亿美元，凸显了在 AI 领域实现盈利可能会有多么具有挑战性，尤其是在短期内。</p>
</div><p>One company that's investing heavily into AI these days is <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.63%). Not only has it invested in OpenAI, but it's also spending money on enhancing its products and services with AI capabilities. How big of a payoff that will have on its bottom line, however, is certainly debatable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个目前大力投资于 AI 的公司是 <strong>微软</strong>（MSFT -0.63%）。它不仅投资于开放 AI，还在用 AI 能力增强其产品和服务上投入资金。然而，这将对其底线产生多大回报，还是值得讨论的。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft's capex spending has been through the roof in recent years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>近年来微软的资本支出支出激增</h2>
</div><p>Capital expenditures (capex) are what a company spends to add, upgrade, or maintain its assets, for the purpose of growing the business in the long run. It's a discretionary expense and when there's a big growth opportunity, spending can ramp up significantly. In the past five years, Microsoft's capital spending has increased at a far quicker rate than revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资本支出（capex）是公司为了长期发展而用于增加、升级或维护资产的支出。这是一项自主支出，当存在巨大增长机会时，支出可以显著增加。在过去五年中，微软的资本支出增速远远快于收入增速。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9a025b48c9299347c5183b26e3aaead.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9a025b48c9299347c5183b26e3aaead.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT Capital Expenditures (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 MSFT 季度资本支出数据</p>
</div><p>This isn't necessarily a cause for concern simply because the goal of increased capital expenditures is greater revenue growth down the road.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不一定是令人担忧的原因，因为增加资本支出的目标是为了未来更大的收入增长。</p>
</div><p>The big test will be if this high level of spend leads to an acceleration of Microsoft's growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键测试将在于这种高水平的支出是否会导致微软增长加速。</p>
</div><h2>Spending on AI for the sake of investing in AI won't necessarily pay off</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>仅仅为了投资于 AI 而支出不一定会有回报</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft has the resources necessary to invest in AI, but throwing a lot of money at something doesn't mean that it's going to pay off for the business in the future. There are a growing number of AI-powered products and services in the market these days, and Microsoft will need to prove that it has superior products for that to lead to strong revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软拥有投资于 AI 所需的资源，但是投入大量资金并不意味着未来对企业有所回报。如今市场上有越来越多基于 AI 的产品和服务，微软需要证明其拥有优秀的产品，才能实现强劲的收入增长。</p>
</div><p><strong>Salesforce</strong> CEO Marc Benioff compares Microsoft's new Copilot AI to the much maligned Clippy of years past. Microsoft recently rolled out an updated version of Copilot, but if it doesn't impress business users and help justify its $30/month per user price tag for Microsoft 365, the investments the company is making in AI may not end up being worthwhile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Salesforce 首席执行官 Marc Benioff 将微软的新 Copilot AI 与过去备受诟病的 Clippy 进行了比较。微软最近推出了更新版本的 Copilot，但如果不能打动商业用户，并帮助证明每月 30 美元的 Microsoft 365 用户价格的合理性，公司在 AI 上的投资可能最终不值得。</p>
</div><h2>Should you invest in Microsoft's stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你应该投资于微软的股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Shares of Microsoft are up a fairly modest 12% this year (the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> has risen by 23%) as investors may be growing apprehensive about the stock's valuation and whether AI will be the catalyst the company expects. At 36 times earnings, the tech stock is a bit pricey and its $3.1 trillion valuation means it's one of the most valuable companies in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软股票今年上涨了相对温和的 12%（<strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 上涨了 23%），投资者可能对股票的估值以及 AI 是否会成为公司预期的催化剂感到担忧。以 36 倍市盈率计算，这家科技股有点昂贵，其 3.1 万亿美元的估值意味着它是世界上最有价值的公司之一。</p>
</div><p>If you're investing for the long run and willing to hold on for years, then Microsoft can still make for a solid buy. Its dominance of office software products, popular Windows operating system, and expansion into gaming are all reasons why the company can continue to do well for the foreseeable future. The one wrinkle, however, is that without a high growth rate, investors may be hesitant to pay a big premium for the stock. And lackluster growth from AI could exacerbate those concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你是为了长期投资并愿意持有几年，那么微软仍然是一个不错的选择。其在办公软件产品、流行的 Windows 操作系统以及扩展到游戏领域的主导地位，都是这家公司未来可持续发展的原因。然而，一个问题是，如果没有高增长率，投资者可能会对股票支付高额溢价感到犹豫。而 AI 带来的低迷增长可能会加剧这些担忧。</p>
</div><p>I expect the company will eventually figure out what works and what doesn't with respect to AI. Microsoft can afford to make mistakes and experiment along the way. And that's why in the short run, if it underwhelms the market with its Copilot AI, it might struggle, but over the long haul the stock is still likely to rise in value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我预计公司最终会找出在 AI 方面什么有效什么无效。微软有能力犯错误并在探索过程中进行实验。这就是为什么短期内，如果其 Copilot AI 表现不佳，可能会遇到困难，但从长远来看，股票仍有可能升值。</p>
</div>

Microsoft Is Spending Big on Artificial Intelligence, but Will It Pay Off?

- 人工智能市场预计到 2030 年将超过 $1.8 万亿，年均增长率为 36.6%。
- 微软在 AI 领域的资本支出大幅增加，但能否带来收入增长仍存疑。
- 投资者对微软股票的未来表现持谨慎态度，缺乏高增长率可能影响估值。

微软在人工智能领域投入巨资，但这是否会带来回报？