<p>（这里所表达的观点属于路透社专栏作家。）</p>
<p>作者：Jamie McGeever</p>
<p>佛罗里达州奥兰多，10 月 17 日（路透社）- 技术近几十年来一直是推动金融市场发展的主要动力，自动化和算法交易的爆炸促进了交易员和投资者今天所享受的惊人速度、效率和流动性。</p>
<p>人工智能很可能加速这些积极变化，并在这一过程中彻底改变金融市场。</p>
<p>但随着好处而来的是潜在的危险，包括市场更容易受到频繁的短期动荡和波动的风险。</p>
<p>像 ChatGPT 这样的生成式人工智能技术可能还处于起步阶段，但它们在社会各个领域的使用速度正以惊人的速度增长。根据圣路易斯联邦储备银行经济学家亚历山大·比克、范德堡大学的亚当·布兰丁和哈佛大学的大卫·戴明上个月的一篇博客文章，生成式人工智能自两年前的大规模推出以来的采纳率为 39.4%。这是个人计算机大规模推出后三年的采纳率的两倍，互联网推出后两年的采纳率。</p>
<p>圣路易斯联邦储备银行的经济学家和研究人员阿卡什·卡尔亚尼、谢尔达尔·奥兹坎、米肯齐·巴斯和米克·杜霍姆上个月在另一篇博客中指出，自 ChatGPT 于 2022 年底推出以来，公司盈利电话中与人工智能相关的讨论增加了五倍以上。</p>
<p>金融行业正在参与这一趋势。国际货币基金组织指出，2017 年首次出现大型语言模型时，只有 19% 与算法交易相关的专利申请涉及人工智能内容。这一比例在 2020 年跃升至 50% 以上，并一直保持在这一水平以上。这表明金融市场可能迎来一场 “创新浪潮”。</p>
<p>这对金融行业可能是个好消息，因为人工智能有潜力将交易、投资和资产配置的效率提升到新的高度。</p>
<p>生成式人工智能能够即时分析大量信息，通过生成更准确的交易信号、改善风险管理、加强交易模型和发现趋势来提升市场表现。</p>
<p>人工智能还有可能改善流动性，并帮助消除在企业债等不适合自动交易的广泛工具市场中的价格扭曲。</p>
<p>它甚至可能提高回报。芝加哥大学研究人员亚历克斯·G·金、马克西米利安·穆恩和瓦莱里·V·尼古拉耶夫五月发表的一份工作论文发现，投资者可能通过遵循基于简单 ChatGPT 分析的投资信号随时间提供更高的累积回报。这项技术显然能够 “发现小盘股中的价值” 是一个显著特点。</p>
<p>当然，如果每个人都在使用相同的技术，任何交易优势可能随时间减弱，但这可能只会推动投资者寻求保持领先一步的更大创新。</p>
<h3>级联和群体行为</h3>
<p>当然，也存在严重风险。</p>
<p>国际货币基金组织在其最新的全球金融稳定报告中强调了其中一些风险，经过与包括银行、经销商、人工智能供应商、资产管理公司、学者和市场基础设施公司在内的广泛利益相关者讨论。</p>
<p>其中最相关的担忧之一是在市场参与者争相减少损失的高波动时期，流动性可能会突然消失，甚至交易停止。由人工智能增强的算法交易策略可能会产生 “级联” 效应，触发负面反馈循环。</p>
<p>国际货币基金组织指出，“潜在的群体行为和市场集中风险” 尤为严重，如果只有少数提供商设计了增强这些算法的人工智能程序和大型语言模型。目前很可能是这种情况。</p>
<p>国际货币基金组织指出，已经有证据表明美国股市在高压力时期看到了由算法驱动的流动性枯竭 - 尽管只是短暂的。这反映了许多参与者实质上处于交易的同一方，并且他们的模型被设计为以相同方式应对许多情况。</p>
<p>此外，人工智能很可能加速市场制造活动向金融宇宙的监管较少的角落转移，如对冲基金、专有交易公司和其他非银行金融中介机构。</p>
<p>增加的不透明度将使监管机构和当局更难监控这些活动，这反过来可能为网络攻击、市场操纵、欺诈和在线传播虚假信息创造更多机会。</p>
<p>但是，没有回到人工智能之前的世界的可能性。市场别无选择，只能接受和拥抱技术。这意味着投资者和金融监管机构必须接受人工智能可能带来的潜在风险、扰乱和危险，以及其许多好处。</p>
<p>（这里所表达的观点属于路透社专栏作家。）</p>
<p>图表-ChatGPT 增强回报可能会超过股市 - 芝加哥大学</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3BRcaXO?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3BRcaXO"/></p>
<p>图表 - 人工智能在交易中的采用情况 - 消费者和市场管理局；国际货币基金组织，默瑟</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3A1NSto?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3A1NSto"/></p>
<p>图表 - 不同资产类别中人工智能的采用情况 - 国际货币基金组织，默瑟</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4h8MWUD?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4h8MWUD"/></p>
<p>图表 - 美国资产市场中由算法驱动的交易 - 国际货币基金组织</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4hbg3Xu?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4hbg3Xu"/></p>
<p>图表 - 人工智能和科技 ETF 的表现远超标普 500</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/403esgr?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/403esgr"/></p>
<p>图表 - 人工智能的采用率高于个人计算机、互联网 - 圣路易斯联邦储备银行</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4eP9w3o?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4eP9w3o"/></p>
<p>（作者：Jamie McGeever；编辑：Paul Simao）</p>

OpenAI

<p>金融市场中人工智能的崛起预计将提高效率和流动性，但也存在增加波动性和市场不稳定性风险。生成式人工智能技术的采用激增，对交易策略和风险管理产生重大影响。然而，对于流动性消失和交易者群体行为的担忧可能导致市场压力下负面反馈循环。随着人工智能继续塑造金融格局，投资者和监管机构必须应对相关风险和干扰</p>

<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（这里所表达的观点属于路透社专栏作家。）</p>
</div><p>By Jamie McGeever</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Jamie McGeever</p>
</div><p>ORLANDO, Florida, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Technology has been the main driving force behind the evolution of financial markets in recent decades, with the explosion of automated and algorithmic trading fostering the eye-popping speed, efficiency, and liquidity that traders and investors enjoy today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>佛罗里达州奥兰多，10 月 17 日（路透社）- 技术近几十年来一直是推动金融市场发展的主要动力，自动化和算法交易的爆炸促进了交易员和投资者今天所享受的惊人速度、效率和流动性。</p>
</div><p>Artificial intelligence is likely to accelerate these positive changes and revolutionize financial markets along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能很可能加速这些积极变化，并在这一过程中彻底改变金融市场。</p>
</div><p>But with the benefits come potential dangers, including the risk that markets will become more vulnerable to frequent bursts of short-term turbulence and volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着好处而来的是潜在的危险，包括市场更容易受到频繁的短期动荡和波动的风险。</p>
</div><p>Generative AI technologies like ChatGPT may be in their infancy, but their use across society is mushrooming at an alarming rate. Generative AI’s adoption rate since its mass launch nearly two years ago is 39.4%, according to a blog post last month by St. Louis Fed economist Alexander Bick, Vanderbilt University’s Adam Blandin and Harvard’s David Deming. That’s twice the adoption rate for the personal computer three years after its mass introduction, and the internet after two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 ChatGPT 这样的生成式人工智能技术可能还处于起步阶段，但它们在社会各个领域的使用速度正以惊人的速度增长。根据圣路易斯联邦储备银行经济学家亚历山大·比克、范德堡大学的亚当·布兰丁和哈佛大学的大卫·戴明上个月的一篇博客文章，生成式人工智能自两年前的大规模推出以来的采纳率为 39.4%。这是个人计算机大规模推出后三年的采纳率的两倍，互联网推出后两年的采纳率。</p>
</div><p>And St. Louis Fed economists and researchers Aakash Kalyani, Serdar Ozkan, Mickenzie Bass and Mick Dueholm noted in a separate blog last month that AI-related chatter in company earnings calls has increased over fivefold since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圣路易斯联邦储备银行的经济学家和研究人员阿卡什·卡尔亚尼、谢尔达尔·奥兹坎、米肯齐·巴斯和米克·杜霍姆上个月在另一篇博客中指出，自 ChatGPT 于 2022 年底推出以来，公司盈利电话中与人工智能相关的讨论增加了五倍以上。</p>
</div><p>The financial industry is taking part in this trend. The International Monetary Fund notes that when Large Language Models first appeared in 2017, only 19% of patent applications related to algorithmic trading featured AI content. That figure jumped to more than 50% in 2020 and has remained above that level ever since. This suggests a “wave of innovation” in financial markets could be coming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融行业正在参与这一趋势。国际货币基金组织指出，2017 年首次出现大型语言模型时，只有 19% 与算法交易相关的专利申请涉及人工智能内容。这一比例在 2020 年跃升至 50% 以上，并一直保持在这一水平以上。这表明金融市场可能迎来一场 “创新浪潮”。</p>
</div><p>This could be very good news for the financial industry, as AI has the potential to take the efficiency of trading, investment and asset allocation to new heights.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对金融行业可能是个好消息，因为人工智能有潜力将交易、投资和资产配置的效率提升到新的高度。</p>
</div><p>Generative AI’s ability to instantaneously analyze vast quantities of information could enhance market performance by generating more accurate trading signals, improving risk management, strengthening trading models, and spotting trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生成式人工智能能够即时分析大量信息，通过生成更准确的交易信号、改善风险管理、加强交易模型和发现趋势来提升市场表现。</p>
</div><p>AI also has the potential to improve liquidity and help iron out price distortions in markets with a wide range of instruments that don’t lend themselves to automated trading, like corporate bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能还有可能改善流动性，并帮助消除在企业债等不适合自动交易的广泛工具市场中的价格扭曲。</p>
</div><p>It may even enhance returns. A working paper published in May by University of Chicago researchers Alex G. Kim, Maximilian Muhn and Valeri V. Nikolaev found evidence that investors may be able to deliver higher cumulative returns over time by following investment signals from simple ChatGPT-based analysis. The technology’s apparent ability to “uncover value in smaller stocks” is a notable feature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它甚至可能提高回报。芝加哥大学研究人员亚历克斯·G·金、马克西米利安·穆恩和瓦莱里·V·尼古拉耶夫五月发表的一份工作论文发现，投资者可能通过遵循基于简单 ChatGPT 分析的投资信号随时间提供更高的累积回报。这项技术显然能够 “发现小盘股中的价值” 是一个显著特点。</p>
</div><p>True, if everyone is using the same technology, any trading benefit could wane over time, but this would likely only fuel the drive for greater innovation as investors seek to remain one step ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，如果每个人都在使用相同的技术，任何交易优势可能随时间减弱，但这可能只会推动投资者寻求保持领先一步的更大创新。</p>
</div><h3>CASCADING AND HERDING</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>级联和群体行为</h3>
</div><p>Of course, there are serious risks as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，也存在严重风险。</p>
</div><p>The IMF highlighted a few of them in its latest Global Financial Stability Report, following discussions with an extensive range of stakeholders, including banks, dealers, AI vendors, asset managers, academics, and market infrastructure firms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际货币基金组织在其最新的全球金融稳定报告中强调了其中一些风险，经过与包括银行、经销商、人工智能供应商、资产管理公司、学者和市场基础设施公司在内的广泛利益相关者讨论。</p>
</div><p>One of the most pertinent concerns is the potential for a sudden evaporation of liquidity, and even the cessation of trading, during periods of high volatility as market participants scramble to minimize losses. Algorithmic trading strategies, enhanced by AI, could create a “cascading” effect triggering negative feedback loops.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中最相关的担忧之一是在市场参与者争相减少损失的高波动时期，流动性可能会突然消失，甚至交易停止。由人工智能增强的算法交易策略可能会产生 “级联” 效应，触发负面反馈循环。</p>
</div><p>The risk of “potential herding and market concentration” is particularly acute, the IMF notes, if only a handful of providers are designing the AI programs and Large Language Models that are enhancing these algos. This is likely the case right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际货币基金组织指出，“潜在的群体行为和市场集中风险” 尤为严重，如果只有少数提供商设计了增强这些算法的人工智能程序和大型语言模型。目前很可能是这种情况。</p>
</div><p>The IMF notes that there is already evidence the U.S. stock market has seen algo-driven liquidity dry up – albeit only briefly – during times of high stress. This reflects that fact that many participants are essentially on the same side of trades and their models are designed to respond to many situations in the same way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际货币基金组织指出，已经有证据表明美国股市在高压力时期看到了由算法驱动的流动性枯竭 - 尽管只是短暂的。这反映了许多参与者实质上处于交易的同一方，并且他们的模型被设计为以相同方式应对许多情况。</p>
</div><p>In addition, AI is likely to accelerate the shift of market-making activities to less regulated corners of the financial universe like hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, and other non-bank financial intermediaries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，人工智能很可能加速市场制造活动向金融宇宙的监管较少的角落转移，如对冲基金、专有交易公司和其他非银行金融中介机构。</p>
</div><p>Increased opacity will make it harder for regulators and authorities to monitor these activities, which, in turn, could create more opportunities for cyberattacks, market manipulation, fraud, and online dissemination of disinformation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增加的不透明度将使监管机构和当局更难监控这些活动，这反过来可能为网络攻击、市场操纵、欺诈和在线传播虚假信息创造更多机会。</p>
</div><p>But there is no going back to the pre-AI world. Markets have little option but to accept and embrace technology. This means investors – and financial regulators – have to accept the potential risk, disruption and danger AI could bring along with its many benefits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，没有回到人工智能之前的世界的可能性。市场别无选择，只能接受和拥抱技术。这意味着投资者和金融监管机构必须接受人工智能可能带来的潜在风险、扰乱和危险，以及其许多好处。</p>
</div><p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（这里所表达的观点属于路透社专栏作家。）</p>
</div><p>Graphic-ChatGPT-enhanced returns may beat stock market over time - University of Chicago</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表-ChatGPT 增强回报可能会超过股市 - 芝加哥大学</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3BRcaXO" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3BRcaXO"/></p>
<p>Graphic-Adoption of AI in trading - Authority for Consumers and Markets; IMF, Mercer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 - 人工智能在交易中的采用情况 - 消费者和市场管理局；国际货币基金组织，默瑟</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3A1NSto" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3A1NSto"/></p>
<p>Graphic-Adoption of AI in different asset classes - IMF, Mercer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 - 不同资产类别中人工智能的采用情况 - 国际货币基金组织，默瑟</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4h8MWUD" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4h8MWUD"/></p>
<p>Graphic-Algo-driven trading in U.S. asset markets - IMF</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 - 美国资产市场中由算法驱动的交易 - 国际货币基金组织</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4hbg3Xu" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4hbg3Xu"/></p>
<p>Graphic-AI &amp; tech ETF far outperforms S&amp;P 500</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 - 人工智能和科技 ETF 的表现远超标普 500</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/403esgr" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/403esgr"/></p>
<p>Graphic-AI adoption higher than personal computers, internet - St Louis Fed</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 - 人工智能的采用率高于个人计算机、互联网 - 圣路易斯联邦储备银行</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4eP9w3o" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4eP9w3o"/></p>
<p>(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Paul Simao)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：Jamie McGeever；编辑：Paul Simao）</p>
</div>

专栏——McGeever 认为，对于市场来说，人工智能的效率可能会带来波动