<p>仅仅 20 年前，当以市值衡量时，工业和能源巨头 <strong>通用电气</strong> 和 <strong>埃克森美孚</strong> 是全球市值最高的公司，市值分别为 3190 亿美元和 2830 亿美元。现在，仅仅 20 年后，科技公司主导了这一领域。</p>
<p>领先的是一些世界上最熟悉的科技公司名称。<strong>苹果</strong> 以 3.5 万亿美元的市值位居榜首（截至本文撰写时）。<strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 紧随其后，市值分别为 3.2 万亿美元和 3.1 万亿美元。</p>
<p>以 2 万亿美元的市值来看，或许现在认为 <strong>谷歌母公司</strong>（GOOGL -1.35%）（GOOG -1.34%）有望加入 3 万亿美元俱乐部还为时过早。然而，自去年初以来，股价已上涨了 88%，过去五年上涨了 172%，有充分理由相信其增长将继续。</p>
<p>经济改善、谷歌母公司的市场实力以及人工智能领域的进展可能为公司提供所需的推动力，使其加入这个独特的俱乐部。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQyMTMvYS1wZXJzb24tc2l0aW5nLWF0LWEtZGVzay1sb29raW5nLWF0LWdyYXBocy1vbi1tdWx0aXBsZS1kZXZpY2UtbW9uaXRvcnMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQyMTMvYS1wZXJzb24tc2l0aW5nLWF0LWEtZGVzay1sb29raW5nLWF0LWdyYXBocy1vbi1tdWx0aXBsZS1kZXZpY2UtbW9uaXRvcnMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>改善表现</h2>
<p>过去几年普遍存在的挑战是非常明显的，标志着宏观经济面临的阻力和自上世纪 80 年代初以来最严重的通货膨胀率。这些条件严重影响了谷歌母公司各主要业务板块，股价也因此下跌了高达 44%。</p>
<p>然而，最近几个月情况有了显著改善。去年 9 月，美联储自 2020 年 3 月以来首次降息，消费者信心也跃升至数月来的最高水平。</p>
<p>经济复苏对谷歌母公司的业绩产生了显著影响。第二季度，收入 847 亿美元，同比增长 14%，每股摊薄收益 1.89 美元，同比增长 31%。</p>
<p>公司各主要运营板块都为业绩提升做出了贡献。近年来受到最严重打击的广告业的复苏影响最为深远。提供大部分收入的谷歌广告同比增长 11%，而谷歌云——公司增长最快的板块——增长了 29%。</p>
<h2>在多个方面的行业领导者</h2>
<p>谷歌长期以来一直是搜索领域的无可争议的领导者，最近根据互联网统计聚合器 StatCounter 的数据，搜索市场份额达到了 90%。该公司一直致力于不断提升其搜索能力和基础算法，逐渐成为人工智能领域的专家。</p>
<p>谷歌还是数字广告领域的无可争议领导者，主要由谷歌搜索和 YouTube 推动，同时也得益于其拥有数十亿用户的产品套件。根据 Statista 编制的数据，2023 年，谷歌占据了全球数字广告收入的估计 39%，而其最接近的竞争对手——<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>——仅获得 18%。这种主导地位预计将持续。</p>
<p>谷歌母公司在云计算领域也是一个强有力的竞争者。谷歌云作为&#34;三巨头&#34;之一，是云基础设施服务的第三大提供商。根据 Canalys 提供的数据，该公司在第二季度控制了约 10% 的市场份额。同时，谷歌云的年度收入增长率达到 30%。</p>
<p>推动对谷歌云的需求的是公司的生成式人工智能产品。多年来，谷歌一直在利用人工智能来提升其搜索结果，公司已将这一专业知识重新聚焦到由 Gemini 领导的一套人工智能模型中。这吸引了新用户使用谷歌云。</p>
<h2>不确定性拖累股价</h2>
<p>如果不提及房间里的大象，我会感到遗漏。反垄断案件对谷歌母公司的审判即将结束。法院裁定谷歌违反了反垄断法，美国司法部正在考虑关于适当补救措施的建议，尽管法官将最终做出决定。其中一个潜在的结果是公司的拆分，这是几十年来从未发生过的事情。还有其他较轻的建议，比如与竞争对手分享谷歌的搜索代码，阻止其他提供商向谷歌支付成为其默认搜索引擎等。</p>
<p>至少要一年才能做出最终决定，如果谷歌母公司提出上诉（它表示会这样做），这个案件可能会持续数年。华尔街讨厌不确定性，所以这些问题近几个月来一直是谷歌母公司股价的负面因素。</p>
<p>尽管如此，即使谷歌母公司被拆分——我不认为会发生这种情况——这也可能释放出额外的价值，从而使股东受益。因此，在我看来，目前的担忧只是噪音。</p>
<h2>达到 3 万亿美元的道路</h2>
<p>谷歌母公司目前的市值约为 2 万亿美元，这意味着股价上涨约 47% 才能将其价值推高到 3 万亿美元。根据华尔街的预测，预计谷歌母公司将在 2024 年实现 3474 亿美元的收入，使其前瞻性市销率（P/S）约为 6。假设其市销率保持不变，谷歌母公司需要将其收入增长到每年约 5100 亿美元才能支撑 3 万亿美元的市值。</p>
<p>目前，华尔街预测谷歌母公司未来五年的收入增长约为 11%。如果公司实现这一标准，到 2028 年就有可能实现 3 万亿美元的市值。值得注意的是，过去十年，谷歌的年度收入增长了 368%，因此华尔街可能低估了其预测。</p>
<p>此外，Alphabet 目前的市盈率约为 24 倍，与 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 的市盈率 30 相比，折让幅度显著。上述不确定性为那些打算长期持有的精明投资者提供了非常有吸引力的入场点。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>谷歌（GOOGL）被认为有望在 2028 年成为万亿美元俱乐部的潜在成员，与苹果、英伟达和微软等科技巨头并列。自去年年初以来，该公司股价上涨了 88%，受到经济改善和人工智能进步的推动。在第二季度，谷歌母公司报告营收增长 14%，达到 747 亿美元，每股收益增长 31%，达到 1.89 美元。尽管面临反垄断挑战，谷歌仍然是搜索和数字广告领域的领导者，占据全球广告收入的 39%，在谷歌云业务方面表现强劲</p>

<p>It was a mere 20 years ago that industrial and energy titans <strong>General Electric</strong> and <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> were the world's most valuable companies when measured by market cap, with values of $319 billion and $283 billion, respectively. Now, just two decades later, technology interests lead the field.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅仅 20 年前，当以市值衡量时，工业和能源巨头 <strong>通用电气</strong> 和 <strong>埃克森美孚</strong> 是全球市值最高的公司，市值分别为 3190 亿美元和 2830 亿美元。现在，仅仅 20 年后，科技公司主导了这一领域。</p>
</div><p>Heading up the list are some of the world's most familiar technology names. <strong>Apple</strong> tops the charts at $3.5 trillion (as of this writing). <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong> are trailing close behind, with market caps of $3.2 trillion and $3.1 trillion, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>领先的是一些世界上最熟悉的科技公司名称。<strong>苹果</strong> 以 3.5 万亿美元的市值位居榜首（截至本文撰写时）。<strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 紧随其后，市值分别为 3.2 万亿美元和 3.1 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>With a market cap of just $2 trillion, it might seem a bit early to suggest that <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -1.35%)(GOOG -1.34%) has the makings for membership in the $3 trillion club. However, the stock has gained 88% since early last year and 172% over the past five years, and there's every reason to believe its ascent will continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 2 万亿美元的市值来看，或许现在认为 <strong>谷歌母公司</strong>（GOOGL -1.35%）（GOOG -1.34%）有望加入 3 万亿美元俱乐部还为时过早。然而，自去年初以来，股价已上涨了 88%，过去五年上涨了 172%，有充分理由相信其增长将继续。</p>
</div><p>A combination of an improving economy, Alphabet's market strength, and gains in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) could provide the boost the company needs to join this exclusive society.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济改善、谷歌母公司的市场实力以及人工智能领域的进展可能为公司提供所需的推动力，使其加入这个独特的俱乐部。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQyMTMvYS1wZXJzb24tc2l0aW5nLWF0LWEtZGVzay1sb29raW5nLWF0LWdyYXBocy1vbi1tdWx0aXBsZS1kZXZpY2UtbW9uaXRvcnMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794213%2Fa-person-siting-at-a-desk-looking-at-graphs-on-multiple-device-monitors.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Improving performance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>改善表现</h2>
</div><p>The widespread challenges of the past few years have been glaringly obvious, marked by macroeconomic headwinds and the worst inflation rates since the early 1980s. These conditions weighed heavily on each of Alphabet's major business segments and the stock plunged as much as 44% in response.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几年普遍存在的挑战是非常明显的，标志着宏观经济面临的阻力和自上世纪 80 年代初以来最严重的通货膨胀率。这些条件严重影响了谷歌母公司各主要业务板块，股价也因此下跌了高达 44%。</p>
</div><p>However, there's been a marked improvement in recent months. In September, the Federal Reserve Bank cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020, and consumer confidence jumped to its highest level in months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最近几个月情况有了显著改善。去年 9 月，美联储自 2020 年 3 月以来首次降息，消费者信心也跃升至数月来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>The economic rebound has had a dramatic effect on Alphabet's results. In the second quarter, revenue of $84.7 billion climbed 14% year over year, while diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.89 jumped 31%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济复苏对谷歌母公司的业绩产生了显著影响。第二季度，收入 847 亿美元，同比增长 14%，每股摊薄收益 1.89 美元，同比增长 31%。</p>
</div><p>Each of the company's major operating segments did their part to boost the results. The rebound in advertising, which has suffered the most in recent years, had the most profound impact. Google advertising, which provides the bulk of Alphabet's revenue, climbed 11% year over year, while Google Cloud -- the company's fastest-growing segment -- jumped 29%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司各主要运营板块都为业绩提升做出了贡献。近年来受到最严重打击的广告业的复苏影响最为深远。提供大部分收入的谷歌广告同比增长 11%，而谷歌云——公司增长最快的板块——增长了 29%。</p>
</div><h2>An industry leader -- in more ways than one</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在多个方面的行业领导者</h2>
</div><p>Google has long been the undisputed leader in search, recently capturing 90% of the search market, according to internet statistics aggregator StatCounter. The company has worked to consistently improve its search acumen and the underlying algorithms, becoming something of an AI subject matter expert along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌长期以来一直是搜索领域的无可争议的领导者，最近根据互联网统计聚合器 StatCounter 的数据，搜索市场份额达到了 90%。该公司一直致力于不断提升其搜索能力和基础算法，逐渐成为人工智能领域的专家。</p>
</div><p>It's also the undisputed leader in digital advertising, fueled primarily by Google Search and YouTube but also by its suite of products that count billions of users each. In 2023, Google captured an estimated 39% of worldwide digital advertising revenue, according to data compiled by Statista. For context, its closest competitor -- <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> -- garnered just 18%. This dominance is expected to continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌还是数字广告领域的无可争议领导者，主要由谷歌搜索和 YouTube 推动，同时也得益于其拥有数十亿用户的产品套件。根据 Statista 编制的数据，2023 年，谷歌占据了全球数字广告收入的估计 39%，而其最接近的竞争对手——<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>——仅获得 18%。这种主导地位预计将持续。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet is also a strong contender in the realm of cloud computing. Google Cloud is part of the &#34;Big Three&#34; as the third-largest provider of cloud infrastructure services. The company controlled roughly 10% of the market in the second quarter, according to data supplied by Canalys. It was also the fastest-growing, with year-over-year revenue growth of 30%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌母公司在云计算领域也是一个强有力的竞争者。谷歌云作为&#34;三巨头&#34;之一，是云基础设施服务的第三大提供商。根据 Canalys 提供的数据，该公司在第二季度控制了约 10% 的市场份额。同时，谷歌云的年度收入增长率达到 30%。</p>
</div><p>Helping fuel demand for Google Cloud is the company's generative AI offerings. Alphabet has been using AI for years to inform its search results, and the company has refocused that expertise to fuel a suite of AI-powered models led by Gemini, one of the leading foundational AI models in the world. This is attracting new users to Google Cloud.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推动对谷歌云的需求的是公司的生成式人工智能产品。多年来，谷歌一直在利用人工智能来提升其搜索结果，公司已将这一专业知识重新聚焦到由 Gemini 领导的一套人工智能模型中。这吸引了新用户使用谷歌云。</p>
</div><h2>Uncertainty weighs on the stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不确定性拖累股价</h2>
</div><p>I'd be remiss if I didn't address the elephant in the room. The antitrust case against Alphabet is one step closer to completion. The court found that Google had violated antitrust law, and the U.S. Justice Department is mulling recommendations regarding the appropriate remedies, though the judge will have the final say. One of the potential outcomes is a breakup of the company, which is something that hasn't happened in decades. There are other less severe proposals, like sharing Google's search code with rivals, blocking other providers from paying Google to be its default search engine and more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果不提及房间里的大象，我会感到遗漏。反垄断案件对谷歌母公司的审判即将结束。法院裁定谷歌违反了反垄断法，美国司法部正在考虑关于适当补救措施的建议，尽管法官将最终做出决定。其中一个潜在的结果是公司的拆分，这是几十年来从未发生过的事情。还有其他较轻的建议，比如与竞争对手分享谷歌的搜索代码，阻止其他提供商向谷歌支付成为其默认搜索引擎等。</p>
</div><p>A final decision won't be reached for at least a year, and if Alphabet appeals (it says it will), the case could go on for several more. Wall Street hates uncertainty, so this has been an overhang for Alphabet stock in recent months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至少要一年才能做出最终决定，如果谷歌母公司提出上诉（它表示会这样做），这个案件可能会持续数年。华尔街讨厌不确定性，所以这些问题近几个月来一直是谷歌母公司股价的负面因素。</p>
</div><p>All that aside, even if Alphabet were to be broken up -- and I don't believe it will -- that could unlock additional value, enriching shareholders along the way. So, the current concerns are merely noise, in my opinion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，即使谷歌母公司被拆分——我不认为会发生这种情况——这也可能释放出额外的价值，从而使股东受益。因此，在我看来，目前的担忧只是噪音。</p>
</div><h2>The path to $3 trillion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>达到 3 万亿美元的道路</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet currently boasts a market cap of roughly $2 trillion, which means it will take stock price gains of about 47% to drive its value to $3 trillion. According to Wall Street, Alphabet is expected to generate revenue of $347.4 billion in 2024, giving it a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 6. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Alphabet would have to grow its revenue to roughly $510 billion annually to support a $3 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌母公司目前的市值约为 2 万亿美元，这意味着股价上涨约 47% 才能将其价值推高到 3 万亿美元。根据华尔街的预测，预计谷歌母公司将在 2024 年实现 3474 亿美元的收入，使其前瞻性市销率（P/S）约为 6。假设其市销率保持不变，谷歌母公司需要将其收入增长到每年约 5100 亿美元才能支撑 3 万亿美元的市值。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street is currently forecasting revenue growth for Alphabet of about 11% annually over the next five years. If the company achieves that benchmark, it <em>could</em> achieve a $3 trillion market cap as early as 2028. It's worth noting that Alphabet has grown its annual revenue by 368% over the past decade, so Wall Street could be lowballing its forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，华尔街预测谷歌母公司未来五年的收入增长约为 11%。如果公司实现这一标准，到 2028 年就有可能实现 3 万亿美元的市值。值得注意的是，过去十年，谷歌的年度收入增长了 368%，因此华尔街可能低估了其预测。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Alphabet is currently selling for roughly 24 times earnings, a significant discount compared to the multiple of 30 for the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>. The aforementioned uncertainty is providing a very attractive entry point for savvy investors who plan to buy and hold for the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Alphabet 目前的市盈率约为 24 倍，与 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 的市盈率 30 相比，折让幅度显著。上述不确定性为那些打算长期持有的精明投资者提供了非常有吸引力的入场点。</p>
</div>

Meet the Unstoppable Growth Stock That Could Join Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft in the $3 Trillion Club by 2028.

- 过去 20 年，科技公司市值超越工业巨头，Alphabet 市值约 2 万亿美元。  
- 经济复苏和 AI 发展助力 Alphabet，预计 2024 年收入达 3474 亿美元。  
- 反垄断案件带来不确定性，但长期看仍有潜力实现 3 万亿美元市值。

了解这只势不可挡的成长股，它可能在 2028 年与苹果、英伟达和微软一起进入 3 万亿美元俱乐部